Lumberjack disproves hundreds of years of atmospheric Physics theory. Huge if true !
Photo credit: Energy Live News/YouTube Ned Nikolov Credentials Background Nedialko (Ned) T. Nikolov works as a physical scientist for the U.S. Forest Service. Nikolov’s profile at ResearchGate lists his PhD as in Ecological Modeling. His profile at the United States Department of Agriculture’s...
www.desmog.com
Some people are very wedded to a particular side of the debate. I am really not. I have come to certain opinions as a result of examining the data and I hold them ONLY until I am convinced that the data is pointing another way.
So I was interested to hear this individual argue his case, but I think he is wrong.
He opens his case with what is an obvious red-herring about the relationship of atmospheric pressure on different planets to their temperature. This has nothing to do with an observed change of one degree c in mean global temperature over a time period of 150 years or so. There is no data suggesting that the mean atmospheric pressure has gone up. I have no clue as to why he made that point. It is not relevant to the debate.
Then he goes into discussing various features of the data looking for evidence that something other than co2 increase has a causal effect on atmospheric warming. In doing so, he just ignores the simple laboratory experiment that any one of us can carry out. All you need do is set up a heat lamp next to a tank of air and measure the temperature of the interior for a measured time. You get the terminal temperature after the passage of time and note it down. Then you can fill that tank with other gasses than plain old air - co2 for instance, or methane gas, and repeat the experiment, taking care that each session begins at the same initial temperature. If you do this, you will soon be convinced that CO2 and methane retain more heat than does the ordinary air. This is a fact and there is no sense in denying it. You can do it. I have done it. It is true. It happens because different gasses contain different elements and they absorb light energy differently. This is how astronomers can look at planets through a telescope and know what gasses they are made up of, because when the planet passes in front of our sun, or in front of a star in another solar system. the spectroscopic absorption lines show up in the telescope data. Different gasses absorb light differently. There is no use arguing that fact. It is absolutely uncontroversially true.
He also rather foolishly gets involved in the idea that because the paleo-climate data and the ice core data show that temperature rise leads growth of carbon dioxide levels, there must be some sort of cover up. This is easily explained. We know from Milankovitch's work that ice ages and periods of warming and cooling happen according to regular patterns dictated by orbital changes of the planet around the sun, and changes of the inclination of the earth's poles which though separate effects, both change the amount of sunlight that falls on the planet. This obviously changes temperature. When the land and sea heat up, particularly the sea, carbon dioxide is released which was stored there by plants and sea animals over long periods of time. They also release methane. Huge amounts of both are dissolved in the sea and in sediments on the sea floor. Because of the property of water that it both heats and cools slowly, the release of co2 and methane gas lags behind the solar induced temperature rise, but once these gasses are released, they add to temperature rise and drive it further. This is called a positive feedback loop. You need to think about the huge mass of water that the oceans contain. If the earth heats up a bit, the sea heats up very much less quickly. When it heats up, it releases dissolved gasses. This is another easy classroom experiment by the way. It isn't some over fancy theory or the product of a dodgy climate model. It is plain ordinary physics.
So - I listened with interest to the podcast Peter, but I don't think he is right about anything of substance.
As you know I have often posted objections to the more radical and apocalyptic scenarios surrounding the climate debate. I don't think it is wise to jump on fire storms in California, or Australia as indicators that we are all going to be burned in our homes in the next few years. We are not. Those places have been arid, fire prone places for hundreds of years and in Australia's case many thousands of years. I think there is a great deal of climate panic going around,
but I do think that nearly doubling the co2 content of the atmosphere is the cause of a small degree of temperature rise. We can certainly measure it. it is one degree centigrade rise in mean global temperature. It is presently going higher, but the graph is what is called, 'noisy' - meaning each year's temperature fluctuates. Some are high and some are low. The trend is upward though.
So for me, the question is two sided.
How can we reduce our emissions sensibly, and secondly, how can we adapt our agriculture and industry and population growth in a warmer world.
For me POPULATION GROWTH is the big catastrophe. It drives competition for resources, mass migration, and exacerbates environmental damage. THAT is what we really must not ignore. How to deal with it is another question though. I have no clue as to a practical solution because some cultures seem intent on breeding like rabbits. I don't see them stopping in a hurry.
WORLD POPULATION GROWTH
THIS is a spectacular mistake for all of us. Note this is not a distorting graph with a dodgy y axis. It comes from zero so you can see the undistorted rise in population.