Brexit, for once some facts.

[oyster]

I'm not sure I go along with that reasoning.

If you had changed 1 word in that statement - Russians -> Russia, I would generally agree but many Russians have no experience of the old regime. The company I work for has plants in Russia (Now closed) and many of the teams I have dealt with there appear have embraced modern social values and technology as much as anyone.

So, I agree Russia may not be seriously inconvenienced to the extent it is thought but for sure the Russian people will suffer considerably in the coming months. I'm sad about that as in many cases they are as bewildered by all of this as we are.

TTFN
John.

It is absolutely right to distinguish between the Russian regime and many of the population.

It has long been clear that many Russians are very much against the whole invasion and actually want ordinary, peaceful relations with Ukraine.

Enough to end up with regime change in Russia? Not in the short-term. Nor when the voting system ensures the results it wants.

 

[flecc]

many Russians have no experience of the old regime. The company I work for has plants in Russia (Now closed) and many of the teams I have dealt with there appear have embraced modern social values and technology as much as anyone.

But only for a very short period of time as I've already posted. Just 20 years ago they were still crawling out of the old USSR days, since the first decade was wasted by the shambles left. We will suffer more since we've had the modern lifestyle for so much longer.

So, I agree Russia may not be seriously inconvenienced to the extent it is thought but for sure the Russian people will suffer considerably in the coming months.

If you call not being able to buy Western luxuries suffering, perhaps. But they'll hardly suffer at all in normal life for quite a while. Russia made huge progress in countering the sanctions that followed Crimea in 2014 so there's not much new now other than their scale and the banking shutdown.
.

 

[jonathan.agnew]

But only for a very short period of time as I've already posted. Just 20 years ago they were still crawling out of the old USSR days, since the first decade was wasted by the shambles left. We will suffer more since we've had the modern lifestyle for so much longer.



If you call not being able to buy Western luxuries suffering, perhaps. But they'll hardly suffer at all in normal life for quite a while. Russia made huge progress in countering the sanctions that followed Crimea in 2014 so there's not much new now other than their scale and the banking shutdown.
.

Sanctions won't matter much, but Russia is unable to conquer Ukraine. And with mlaw, stinger etc will end up staggering away with a great deal more than a bloody nose. Then putin's position will be untenable, also internationally after he had used chemical weapons etc in desperation.

 

[flecc]

Sanctions won't matter much, but Russia is unable to conquer Ukraine. And with mlaw, stinger etc will end up staggering away with a great deal more than a bloody nose. Then putin's position will be untenable, also internationally after he had used chemical weapons etc in desperation.

Now you are going into the realms of fantasy.

Just be patient, that's what Putin is being, playing the waiting game and meanwhile smashing infrastructure, rather than suffering heavy losses in street fighting.

Even the USA is being patient and playing the waiting game in preference to being involved.
.

 

[jonathan.agnew]

Now you are going into the realms of fantasy.

Just be patient, that's what Putin is being, playing the waiting game and meanwhile smashing infrastructure, rather than suffering heavy losses in street fighting.

Even the USA is being patient and playing the waiting game in preference to being involved.
.

I get how much you hope putin will win, for a putin dominated Europe. I'm afraid that makes you the fantasist: Russia has dropped many places in the world gdp ranking, the European part of the nato alliance is spending exponentially more on defence. Crucially the Russian offensive has ground to a halt, run out of logistics, morale. Ww2 showed that bombing civilians, infrastructure don't work. Its an act of desperation on putins part as part of trapping himself in a hostile Ukraine with a too small force to subdue a nation of 40 million, after plan a (regime change) failed. This is a one way street for Russia. The only question, really, is whether its mafia state pushes the destruct button when it gets to the bottom of it.

 

[Zlatan]

I get how much you hope putin will win, for a putin dominated Europe. I'm afraid that makes you the fantasist: Russia has dropped many places in the world gdp ranking, the European part of the nato alliance is spending exponentially more on defence. Crucially the Russian offensive has ground to a halt, run out of logistics, morale. Ww2 showed that bombing civilians, infrastructure don't work. Its an act of desperation on putins part as part of trapping himself in a hostile Ukraine with a too small force to subdue a nation of 40 million, after plan a (regime change) failed. This is a one way street for Russia. The only question, really, is whether its mafia state pushes the destruct button when it gets to the bottom of it.

I like your mlaw missile idea. Mother in law missiles. Mine would have sorted Putin in a few weeks.

 

[flecc]

I get how much you hope putin will win, for a putin dominated Europe.

That's very offensive, I do not wish he'll win or for a Putin dominated Europe. I've already posted my ideal model for Europe and it is very different from that, leaving Russia wholly marginalised.

But I am a realist and impartial, so I post accordingly. You seriously underestimate the Russians and their patience. The second Chechen war started in 1999 and lasted just over 9 months. There followed almost 9 years of serious insurgency by the Chechens which Russia eventually stopped by holding out against them to 2008. From then the Chechens contiued with low level insurgency until 2017, when the matter was finally settled with an agreement, with the result that Chechnya was wholly incorporated into Russia.

18 years of patient determination to win.

While this Ukraine war is a radically different matter, the Russian patience and determination should never be discounted.
.

 

[Danidl]

That's very offensive, I do not wish he'll win or for a Putin dominated Europe. I've already posted my ideal model for Europe and it is very different from that, leaving Russia wholly marginalised.

But I am a realist and impartial, so I post accordingly. You seriously underestimate the Russians and their patience. The second Chechen war started in 1999 and lasted just over 9 months. There followed almost 9 years of serious insurgency by the Chechens which Russia eventually stopped by holding out against them to 2008. From then the Chechens contiued with low level insurgency until 2017, when the matter was finally settled with an agreement, with the result that Chechnya was wholly incorporated into Russia.

18 years of patient determination to win.

While this Ukraine war is a radically different matter, the Russian patience and determination should never be discounted.
.

"While this Ukraine war is a radically different matter, the Russian patience and determination should never be discounted."
Granted and by the exact same token the Ukrainians are Russian,with the same determination. Now Russia is about 3 times the population of Ukraine, but will be becoming more demoralised. Under that scenario, how long does it take Belarus to switch?. Its only 10 Million , but every little helps. Remember Belarus had voted for a different President.
.

 

[Zlatan]

That's very offensive, I do not wish he'll win or for a Putin dominated Europe. I've already posted my ideal model for Europe and it is very different from that, leaving Russia wholly marginalised.

But I am a realist and impartial, so I post accordingly. You seriously underestimate the Russians and their patience. The second Chechen war started in 1999 and lasted just over 9 months. There followed almost 9 years of serious insurgency by the Chechens which Russia eventually stopped by holding out against them to 2008. From then the Chechens contiued with low level insurgency until 2017, when the matter was finally settled with an agreement, with the result that Chechnya was wholly incorporated into Russia.

18 years of patient determination to win.

While this Ukraine war is a radically different matter, the Russian patience and determination should never be discounted.
.

I don't think Russia has the time this time flecc. Putin is doing his best to keep truth from population but its bound to fail at some point. Its why situation is more dangerous. Putin has at best another month to drive Ukraine to accept his conditions. Its reckoned over a million Russians have signed end the war petition and he has locked up (aledgedly) 12000 anti war protesters. What was it. You can fool some all the time, and all some but not all, all of the time. Truth must be awakening with soldiers not returning, folk from abroad phoning home, no big macs, no coke, Oligarchs in Maldives, Marshall law... Times have changed Flecc. Ukraine has experienced freedom, its why they are fighting so hard. Russians have had a smell of it. It's not the 20th century anymore. Truth will out eventually. Putin knows it. Hence his threats and desperation. I wouldn't be surprised to see Chlorine bombs dropped soon. That will pose a big question for West. Will we stand by and watch. I suspect not. No fly zone if Putin resorts to chemicals /biological.. I wonder what Putin will do..??

 

[jonathan.agnew]

That's very offensive, I do not wish he'll win or for a Putin dominated Europe. I've already posted my ideal model for Europe and it is very different from that, leaving Russia wholly marginalised.

But I am a realist and impartial, so I post accordingly. You seriously underestimate the Russians and their patience. The second Chechen war started in 1999 and lasted just over 9 months. There followed almost 9 years of serious insurgency by the Chechens which Russia eventually stopped by holding out against them to 2008. From then the Chechens contiued with low level insurgency until 2017, when the matter was finally settled with an agreement, with the result that Chechnya was wholly incorporated into Russia.

18 years of patient determination to win.

While this Ukraine war is a radically different matter, the Russian patience and determination should never be discounted.
.

America stayed in Vietnam for 10 years and lost 60000 soldiers, but you wouldn't label that patience, would you? Your post is all about admiration for what is really Cognitive dissonance in russia: pro-fascist national socialism of the type last seen in 39 in this way. I find the fact that you admire that as if its endemic to russian culture offensive.
On a more realistic level, it may take time for that cognitive dissonance to wear off. Russia may have to be destroyed, financially and otherwise. It may lack the democratic mechanisms to save itself the way america did post vietnam

 

[flecc]

America stayed in Vietnam for 10 years and lost 60000 soldiers, but you wouldn't label that patience, would you? Your post is all about admiration for what is really Cognitive dissonance in russia: pro-fascist national socialism of the type last seen in 39 in this way. I find the fact that you admire that as if its endemic to russian culture offensive.
On a more realistic level, it may take time for that cognitive dissonance to wear off. Russia may have to be destroyed, financially and otherwise. It may lack the democratic mechanisms to save itself the way america did post vietnam

You confuse impartiality with admiration, I do not admire what Russia is doing or has done in their wars since I am totally opposed to all war.

I simply comment on the realities, and one of those is that Russia will not necessarily lose this war. It might, it might not, much depends on the unknown of what each side is still to do.

Another reality is that relations between Russia and the West will be re-established eventually without the destruction of Russia you seem to think is necessary. It's certain Putin cannot be part of those relations of course, indeed he may well be dead first.

At least the mixed crew of the ISS have stayed good friends despite this issue. And of course the continued co-operation in keeping the ISS going will be the tentative start of the eventual return to good relations.
.

 

[flecc]

Granted and by the exact same token the Ukrainians are Russian,with the same determination. Now Russia is about 3 times the population of Ukraine, but will be becoming more demoralised.

Why will Russia become more demoralised? That is a reading of the Western propaganda. I think starving, freezing and waterless Ukrainians will become more demoralised first, before enough of the Russian population lose patience. Already they are fighting among themselves rather than fighting Russians. Only yesterday I saw video of one viciously felling another with a punch and heard two others despairingly making it obvious they were opposed to the continued fighting.

As one said, "I didnt want this, I only wanted my home and my job." She could have kept those if the war had been sensibly and easily avoided.
.

 

[snafu]

Not quite what the title suggests but I wasn't aware of this or the history behind it.
Is Japan still theoretically at war with Russia?

TTFN
John.

 

[oyster]

Not quite what the title suggests but I wasn't aware of this or the history behind it.
Is Japan still theoretically at war with Russia?

TTFN
John.

I'm pretty sure I have read that is the case. But that is relying on my memory and quite possibly a very superficial reading.

 

[snafu]

Well, if this and other urban legends such as Berwick on Tweed is also still at war with Russia (Since the Crimean war, due to it being named in the declaration of war but not in the peace treaty), Putin must be Sh*****g in his boots, He's a dead man for sure.

TTFN
John.

 

[flecc]

Not quite what the title suggests but I wasn't aware of this or the history behind it.
Is Japan still theoretically at war with Russia?

TTFN
John.

Not at formal war by agreement, but still in dispute.

All the detail on this link
.

 

[snafu]

Thanks for the link Flecc. Quickly blew through it to pick up the basics, but going back for a more in depth read later.

TTFN
John.

 

[oldgroaner]

A little moral story
Patience is a virtue

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501834490045505540

 

[oldgroaner]

 

[Woosh]

Why will Russia become more demoralised? That is a reading of the Western propaganda. I think starving, freezing and waterless Ukrainians will become more demoralised first, before enough of the Russian population lose patience. Already they are fighting among themselves rather than fighting Russians.

for reason that economic war is similar to military war, Both sides suffer.
Statistically, countries with the bigger production capacity will wear out their opponents and prevail.
Just look back at progress in the last 30 years.
Sanctions if prolonged will roll back the Russian economy.