Brexit, for once some facts.

[oyster]

The link below is the latest vid from Dr John Campbell and concerns some stats about the Pfizer vaccine, unfortunately some of the information has been redacted so its impossible to work out what is the percentage of people who have suffered harm from this vaccine. My question is why would this information not be made available, anybody got any ideas?
The Pfizer documents - YouTube

There are sort-of good and bad reasons.

For example, if there are court hearings, then any form of acceptance of a link might be used in evidence. Good in that there is a genuine ground for redaction. Sort-of because it doesn't make sense to the rest of us not involved in the courts.

Yellow Card reports can continue to be received long after the date of a vaccination. I did so for the Astra Zeneca one - nothing serious, but an issue that persisted, so I eventually did a report.

And I am still not at all sure whether or not there was any link between getting shingles and either or both vaccines. I can't help being suspicious.

 

[jonathan.agnew]

Not within any foreseeable future.

If necessary the USA will see to it that it doesn't happen, as their ruling on the MIG29s shows. Following Iraq and Afghanistan they have no stomach for more war. And once Russia manages to take full control of Ukraine, they won't have any stomach left for more war either. They didn't have the stomach for this one, the venture only happening because they thought it would be just another Georgia style walk over

This time it will take more years for normality to return between Russia and the West than after previous spats, but return it will eventually.
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Few flaws in that prognosis. Ukraine is awash in sophisticated tactical anti tank and anti aircraft weapons. Carried by an increasingly battle hardened resilient army. Who are inflicting increasingly significant losses on Russia, in materiel and casualties. Putin can't win, and he can't climb down. He would lose too much domestic face, and things never end well for autocrats who go down that road. So, he will continue to up the ante as part of escalating the war

 

[Zlatan]

We are of one mind on this....

Agreed.

 

[jonathan.agnew]

Biden is right, the MIG 29 is of no use to the Ukrainians. It was once among the best air to air fighters and the worlds best close combat fighter. But not any more and no use for air to ground operation. If it's flown against Russia by Ukrainians it will be NATO v Russia and the Russians would retaliate. Their BVR (beyond visual range) capability would mean the MIG29s, which have no BVR capability, would be downed by an enemy they never saw.

Quote:

"Russia's aerospace industry has displayed enormous creativity in missile design over the last 25 years, spanning the turbulent last decade of the Cold War, and the post Cold War era. During this period we have seen the incremental evolution of weapons established in service in the last years of the Cold War, the deployment of projects started during the Cold War, and a good number of entirely new projects which emerged during the 1990s period.

The operators of Russian fighters can now access a remarkably diverse range of weapons, available more than often with a range of different seekers sharing common airframes, or common seeker designs integrated into different airframes.

The result of this diversity in airframe performance and seeker capabilities is a veritable nightmare for Western planners as well as designers of electronic and infrar-red countermeasures suites. An inbound BVR missile could be equipped with one of several different semi-active radar homing, active radar homing, infrared-homing or passive X-band anti-radiation homing seekers. The missile might be using one of several possible airframes or derivatives, with diverse kinematic performance."
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And more flaws, mig 29 are old designs, but have been upgraded to multirole (especially ground attack) which was it's purpose as workhorse of Ukraine and Polish Air force

 

[flecc]

So, he will continue to up the ante as part of escalating the war

I didnt say he wouldn't, but that does not necessarily mean a war between NATO and Russia.
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[oyster]

Anyone know if NLAWs can be used against things like assault craft?

 

[flecc]

And more flaws, mig 29 are old designs, but have been upgraded to multirole (especially ground attack) which was it's purpose as workhorse of Ukraine and Polish Air force

No flaws. As I posted, the MIG29 doesn't have BVR capability for air to air combat, so they will be quickly downed by today's Russian BVR equipped planes if the MIGs are introduced.

In any case the ground attack upgrading you mention is them equipped with air to ground missiles, but that doesn't alter the unsuitability of the plane's design for an air to ground role. That sort of unsuitability is why the West struggled to get control in Syria and why Russia so quickly reversed ISIS fortunes by using the far more suitable SU32.
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[jonathan.agnew]

I didnt say he wouldn't, but that does not necessarily mean a war between NATO and Russia.
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Once Kiev resemble alleppo it will

 

[flecc]

Once Kiev resemble alleppo it will

Doubt it. Half of Georgia resembled Aleppo's end after the same purpose Russian assault as Ukraine, totally destroyed. The West tut-tutted then, just like now. The only real difference was the Georgians behaved more sensibly, knowing when they were beaten, so lived to tell the tale and rebuild.

We'll see, just be patient.

You're younger than me so will live to see far better relations between the West and a largely unchanged Russia, still "on the other side".
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[Woosh]

If necessary the USA will see to it that it doesn't happen, as their ruling on the MIG29s shows.

the Mig29s are a separate issue. What would the Ukrainians do with them? they hardly have any infrastructure left to use them effectively, they will be shot down in no time at all.
No fly zone can be achieved by other means like shooting down anything that flies with better surface to air weapons.

 

[flecc]

Anyone know if NLAWs can be used against things like assault craft?

I can't see why they wouldn't be effective.

With landing craft though, aiming such a weapon at densely packed troops on board could quite rightly raise an outcry at such mass slaughter.
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[flecc]

the Mig29s are a separate issue. What would the Ukrainians do with them? they hardly have any infrastructure left to use them effectively, they will be shot down in no time at all.

Same argument as mine, the USA was right to rule out their deployment.
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[oyster]

I can't see why they wouldn't be effective.

With landing craft though, aiming such a weapon at densely packed troops on board could quite rightly raise an outcry at such mass slaughter.
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I doubt there would be much outcry if the firer were a Ukrainian and the craft a Russian one part of a fleet attempting an amphibious landing.

I thought about NLAWs being re-purposed within the country, and I couldn't see why it wouldn't work. The thought came as I read this:

Immediate items to watch

• Russian forces may launch an attempt to encircle Kyiv from east and west and/or to seize the city center itself within the next 24-96 hours;
• Russian troops may drive on Zaporizhya city itself within the next 48-72 hours, likely attempting to block it from the east and set conditions for subsequent operations after Russian forces besieging Mariupol take that city;
• Russian forces may attempt amphibious landings anywhere along the Black Sea Coast between Odesa and the mouth of the Southern Bug in the next 24-48 hours.

Institute for the Study of War

Russian forces continued concentrating in the eastern, northwestern, and western outskirts of Kyiv for an assault on the capital in the coming 24-96 hours. The reported appearance of forces belonging to Chechen leader Ramazan Kadyrov, Russia’s Rosgvardia

www.understandingwar.org

 

[jonathan.agnew]

Doubt it. Half of Georgia resembled Aleppo's end after the same purpose Russian assault as Ukraine, totally destroyed. The West tut-tutted then, just like now. The only real difference was the Georgians behaved more sensibly, knowing when they were beaten, so lived to tell the tale and rebuild.

We'll see, just be patient.

You're younger than me so will live to see far better relations between the West and a largely unchanged Russia, still "on the other side".
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Kind of you to wish me a long life in the world of biden boris putin (not sure its desirable). What you describe is putin's assumption - that the oppressed will remain undefended, weak, vulnerable, available as targets. Im not sure that's a pacifist's premise.
The difference between aleppo, Georgia and Kiev is that ukrainis have devastatingly effective anti tank and aircraft weapons. The Ukraine army is doing the sensible thing by using this to beat the Russian army. Unfortunately this speed up the inevitable conclusion to what was always coming with putin, a final confrontation.

 

[flecc]

I doubt there would be much outcry if the firer were a Ukrainian and the craft a Russian one part of a fleet attempting an amphibious landing.

It would be unwise, exposing the Ukrainians to accusations of behaving worse than the Russians. Ignoring the propaganda exaggerations, the Russians have been avoiding a lot of killing, concentrating on large scale infrastructure destruction just as they did in Georgia. Some people get killed in the course of doing that, but it's not the aim. If the figures are true, it's Russians and not Ukrainians who are being deliberately killed.

Russian forces may attempt amphibious landings anywhere along the Black Sea Coast between Odesa and the mouth of the Southern Bug in the next 24-48 hours.

Mariupol has already been assaulted twice from the sea, first as the war started, the second in support of the current containment. And Russian warships are standing just off Odessa.
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[Woosh]

You're younger than me so will live to see far better relations between the West and a largely unchanged Russia, still "on the other side".

Russia will change for the better when Putin's gone.

 

[flecc]

Unfortunately this speed up the inevitable conclusion to what was always coming with putin, a final confrontation.

As I posted, be patient, then we'll know. Even the Americans are being unusually patient, rather than getting involved. And if they don't get involved, Europe certainly won't.
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[flecc]

Russia will change for the better when Putin's gone.

Definitely, and that won't be very far away.

But Russia will still be "on the other side". That pattern for the future is cast.
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[Woosh]

Definitely, and that won't be very far away.

But Russia will still be "on the other side". That pattern for the future is cast.
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China will replace Russia in this role soon enough after Putin's gone.

 

[jonathan.agnew]

China will replace Russia in this role soon enough after Putin's gone.

That analogy would hold if china launch a full scale invasion of Taiwan. And threaten nuclear war. Which would be a crisis. I think, in insisting it will all return to a happy homeostasis as before of rubbing corrupt shoulders with regimes, taking backhands for turning a blind eye to human rights abuses the thread is in a state of wilful denial. Same denial the west were in for past twenty years as it allowed regimes to prosper. And I don't think that kind of self serving self satisfied conceit had anything to do with pacifism. As it allows civilians in aleppo, for example, or dissidents in Belarus to be tortured to death