He has many flaws. A floor would help prevent him sinking to greater depths.
Brexit, for once some facts.
- Thread starter flecc
- Start date
Limited evidence obtained from CCTV in Australia indicate encounters of just 5 or 10 seconds walking past each other in an indoor shopping area was enough to catch the Delta variant. If this is genuinely the case then those countries that have not done many vaccinations are going to be in massive trouble in a few months time.
Delta Covid variant may be edging race against vaccines | Coronavirus | The Guardian
Delta Covid variant may be edging race against vaccines | Coronavirus | The Guardian
I’ve just been reading about Andrew Marr. He’d had a very nasty Covid infection and he’d had both vaccinations. In desperation to get the tills ringing, I don’t think we are being given the full picture.
I’m going to let the crash test dummied go over the top on 19/07 and see how they get on.
it was lucky that the delta variant wasn't big back in last winter when most people were given the second jab 12 weeks after the first.
Now it's clear that two jabs give twice the protection.
covid is just a name, call it a hoax if you like.
the real cause of the pandemic is a new corona virus.
I suspect that new virus is man-made.
common cold, flu and covid are all corona viruses but only covid give more than a million of us long term damage and such a high death count.
You may well have a point, so far I have resisted this conclusion, but ...
In another part of my life, I am involved with many who have health issues. A very significant proportion count their illness back to some infection or other - the following being commonly mentioned:
Cytomegalovirus (CMV)
Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)
Hepatitis B virus (HBV))
Hepatitis C virus (HCV)
Herpes simplex virus (HSV)
Varicella Zoster virus
And many go on to suffer Chronic fatigue syndrome, aka myalgic encephalomyelitis (ME), or other long-term illness - including autoimmune disorders. Suffering often continuing for many years. Deaths from such disorders are often missed. If someone has been ill for years, and then they get a final disease or their organs give up, autoimmunity, CFS/ME, etc., might well not appear on their death certificates. Or if they do appear, they just provide some sort of context and are not really considered as causes.
The numbers who have died must be huge. (And I am excluding the considerable numbers who suffer mental health issues and then do things which result in their deaths - not just suicide but also things that they would not normally have done.)
(There are also non-viral disease like Lime disease.)
The evidence for these connections tends to be relatively poor - after all, if you had influenza ten years ago, would you put down symptoms that started a year or two ago and have worsened very slowly down to that dose of influenza? If you stayed at home for a few days and then appeared to recover, would you have any proof of which virus you suffered?
My step-father had bronchitis one winter - and could never again smell or taste properly. I'm quite sure that never went on any records hence was not recorded in statistics. Whether it was the bronchitis or the antibiotics which caused it can never be determined.
I don't think our brains and language are very good at thinking and writing about uncertainties. Yes, it is something that must be considered. But we need to be careful not to make it appear to be a proved case unless and until it is.
(Just there, I almost put "case until", then realised the implicit assumption that it is just a matter of time until it is. Which was not what I meant.)
I hope no-one starts a war...
UK military chiefs self-isolate after head of army catches Covid
Defence secretary and heads of Royal Navy and RAF all isolating after Gen Sir Nick Carter’s positive Covid test
or even a shindig in the Black Sea.
UK military chiefs self-isolate after head of army catches Covid
Defence secretary and heads of Royal Navy and RAF all isolating after Gen Sir Nick Carter’s positive Covid test
or even a shindig in the Black Sea.
Re the Security issues brought out by the Minister for Horseracing's resignation
1: The building is owned by a Singapore company
2: Security is provided by a private company
3: Apparently Hancock can't spot a CCTV camera obviously visible on the ceiling
4:The Daily Mail is desperate to make out it was a departmental whistle blower as the Sun would say "Wot did it!"
5: Clearly from the dismayed responses from other cabinet ministers that they may be being monitored, they are as dumb as he is!
1: The building is owned by a Singapore company
2: Security is provided by a private company
3: Apparently Hancock can't spot a CCTV camera obviously visible on the ceiling
4:The Daily Mail is desperate to make out it was a departmental whistle blower as the Sun would say "Wot did it!"
5: Clearly from the dismayed responses from other cabinet ministers that they may be being monitored, they are as dumb as he is!
Did the contracts for building and security specify "no filming of ministers in compromising positions"?
If not, it shows how incompetent they are at making contracts. As if we needed any further evidence.
And, of course, this quote:
“The innocent have nothing to fear” - words famously uttered by Michael Howard, Home Secretary for John Major’s UK government and leader of the Opposition in the Tony Blair years. But with a 98% reported failure rate of the Metropolitan Police’s 2018 live facial recognition tests – findings that were discussed in the UK Parliament at the time – it’s hard to make such a claim with any confidence.
But they do need updates to include arsal recognition.
Actually engineers spend a lot of time in the uncertain world of probabilities
since when things go belly up it's usually because we waited too long for verifiable proof and proof made it's unpleasant appearance in ways we regret.
Hence we can attach a probability to that hypotheses
| Risk Event Probability | Interpretation | Rating |
|---|---|---|
| > 0 - <= 0.05 | Extremely sure not to occur | Low |
| > 0.05 - <= 0.15 | Almost sure not to occur | Low |
| > 0.15 - <= 0.25 | Not likely to occur | Low |
| > 0.25 - <= 0.35 | Not very likely to occur | Low |
| > 0.35 - <= 0.45 | Somewhat less than an even chance | Medium |
| > 0.45 - <= 0.55 | An even chance to occur | Medium |
| > 0.55 - <= 0.65 | Somewhat greater than an even chance | Medium |
| > 0.65 - <= 0.75 | Likely to occur | High |
| > 0.75 - <= 0.85 | Very likely to occur | High |
| > 0.85 - <= 0.95 | Almost sure to occur | High |
| > 0.95 - < 1 | Extremely sure to occur | High |
At the moment I rate that possibility somewhere around 0.3
Further to that if it is then the probability of accident gets a rating of 0.6
Yes - engineers and statisticians do manage to discuss such things. But only when they apply lots of effort, and study the subject.
And in my niche of medical information, the inability of those who should know better to understand is devastating.
Imagine you have a shower in your bathroom. Showers have flow rates between 8 and 20 litres per minute. Therefore, if you shower runs at any rate in that range it is fine. Ignoring that the rate for your specific shower should, perhaps be 14, so a measurement of 8.1 is very much questionable. And the, "well, 7 is only just out of range so no issue".
Applying population statistics to individuals is so common in medicine, it is staggering that there is a single qualified statistician employed anywhere.
In the case of the man-madeness of Covid-19, we are not actually discussing whether or not it was. But whether or not we believe is was. The reality is binary - it either was, or was not, for any given definition of being man-made. Everything else is perception and attempting to discern the reality.
