Brexit, for once some facts.

sjpt

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Jun 8, 2018
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When the man at the top has all kinds of personal floors (basically a mini Trump)
He has many flaws. A floor would help prevent him sinking to greater depths.
 

Nev

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May 1, 2018
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Jesus H Christ

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Dec 31, 2020
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Limited evidence obtained from CCTV in Australia indicate encounters of just 5 or 10 seconds walking past each other in an indoor shopping area was enough to catch the Delta variant. If this is genuinely the case then those countries that have not done many vaccinations are going to be in massive trouble in a few months time.
Delta Covid variant may be edging race against vaccines | Coronavirus | The Guardian
I’ve just been reading about Andrew Marr. He’d had a very nasty Covid infection and he’d had both vaccinations. In desperation to get the tills ringing, I don’t think we are being given the full picture.

I’m going to let the crash test dummied go over the top on 19/07 and see how they get on.
 

POLLY

Pedelecer
Aug 10, 2016
188
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Chesterfield
I mentioned the other day that a GP that my wife knows had come down with Covid, even though he had had both jabs, did you see the Marr programme this morning?

Andrew Marr said that he had just got over a bout of Covid, he thinks he probably caught it at the G7 meeting a few weeks ago. He also had both jabs, and said he had the vaccines in the very early days (I think he would come under the at risk due to health problems category). So like the GP I mentioned we are probably talking of about 6 months or so since he was vaccinated.

Marr went on to say that although he did not go to Hospital, he was really quite ill, and if he had got a bit worse he would have needed to go in. He also wondered if he was just unlucky and was just one of the ones that the vaccine hasn't worked that well, or were the effects of the vaccine starting to wear off and that's why he caught the disease.

I think the next couple of months are going to be interesting in particular when we open up completely which I think we are likely to do. I'm wondering if perhaps instead of a booster shot after 12 months we might need to consider a booster after 6 months. Or perhaps a 6 month booster for the over 60s or 70s, what do the rest of you think?
B.S
 
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Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
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wooshbikes.co.uk
I’ve just been reading about Andrew Marr. He’d had a very nasty Covid infection and he’d had both vaccinations. In desperation to get the tills ringing, I don’t think we are being given the full picture.

I’m going to let the crash test dummied go over the top on 19/07 and see how they get on.
it was lucky that the delta variant wasn't big back in last winter when most people were given the second jab 12 weeks after the first.
Now it's clear that two jabs give twice the protection.
 

POLLY

Pedelecer
Aug 10, 2016
188
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Chesterfield
Limited evidence obtained from CCTV in Australia indicate encounters of just 5 or 10 seconds walking past each other in an indoor shopping area was enough to catch the Delta variant. If this is genuinely the case then those countries that have not done many vaccinations are going to be in massive trouble in a few months time.
Delta Covid variant may be edging race against vaccines | Coronavirus | The Guardian
The pandemic is a 100% hoax. Delta variant is total
B.S
 
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Woosh

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The pandemic is a 100% hoax. Delta variant is total
B.S
covid is just a name, call it a hoax if you like.
the real cause of the pandemic is a new corona virus.
I suspect that new virus is man-made.
common cold, flu and covid are all corona viruses but only covid give more than a million of us long term damage and such a high death count.
 

POLLY

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Aug 10, 2016
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Chesterfield
covid is just a name, call it a hoax if you like.
the real cause of the pandemic is a new corona virus.
I suspect that new virus is man-made.
common cold, flu and covid are all corona viruses but only covid give more than a million of us long term damage and such a high death count.
B.S
 
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oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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covid is just a name, call it a hoax if you like.
the real cause of the pandemic is a new corona virus.
I suspect that new virus is man-made.
common cold, flu and covid are all corona viruses but only covid give more than a million of us long term damage and such a high death count.
You may well have a point, so far I have resisted this conclusion, but ...
 
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oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
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covid is just a name, call it a hoax if you like.
the real cause of the pandemic is a new corona virus.
I suspect that new virus is man-made.
common cold, flu and covid are all corona viruses but only covid give more than a million of us long term damage and such a high death count.
In another part of my life, I am involved with many who have health issues. A very significant proportion count their illness back to some infection or other - the following being commonly mentioned:

Cytomegalovirus (CMV)
Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)
Hepatitis B virus (HBV))
Hepatitis C virus (HCV)
Herpes simplex virus (HSV)
Varicella Zoster virus

And many go on to suffer Chronic fatigue syndrome, aka myalgic encephalomyelitis (ME), or other long-term illness - including autoimmune disorders. Suffering often continuing for many years. Deaths from such disorders are often missed. If someone has been ill for years, and then they get a final disease or their organs give up, autoimmunity, CFS/ME, etc., might well not appear on their death certificates. Or if they do appear, they just provide some sort of context and are not really considered as causes.

The numbers who have died must be huge. (And I am excluding the considerable numbers who suffer mental health issues and then do things which result in their deaths - not just suicide but also things that they would not normally have done.)

(There are also non-viral disease like Lime disease.)

The evidence for these connections tends to be relatively poor - after all, if you had influenza ten years ago, would you put down symptoms that started a year or two ago and have worsened very slowly down to that dose of influenza? If you stayed at home for a few days and then appeared to recover, would you have any proof of which virus you suffered?

My step-father had bronchitis one winter - and could never again smell or taste properly. I'm quite sure that never went on any records hence was not recorded in statistics. Whether it was the bronchitis or the antibiotics which caused it can never be determined.
 
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oyster

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You may well have a point, so far I have resisted this conclusion, but ...
I don't think our brains and language are very good at thinking and writing about uncertainties. Yes, it is something that must be considered. But we need to be careful not to make it appear to be a proved case unless and until it is.

(Just there, I almost put "case until", then realised the implicit assumption that it is just a matter of time until it is. Which was not what I meant.)
 

oyster

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Nov 7, 2017
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I hope no-one starts a war...

UK military chiefs self-isolate after head of army catches Covid
Defence secretary and heads of Royal Navy and RAF all isolating after Gen Sir Nick Carter’s positive Covid test

or even a shindig in the Black Sea.
 

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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Re the Security issues brought out by the Minister for Horseracing's resignation
1: The building is owned by a Singapore company
2: Security is provided by a private company
3: Apparently Hancock can't spot a CCTV camera obviously visible on the ceiling
4:The Daily Mail is desperate to make out it was a departmental whistle blower as the Sun would say "Wot did it!"
5: Clearly from the dismayed responses from other cabinet ministers that they may be being monitored, they are as dumb as he is!
 

oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
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Re the Security issues brought out by the Minister for Horseracing's resignation
1: The building is owned by a Singapore company
2: Security is provided by a private company
3: Apparently Hancock can't spot a CCTV camera obviously visible on the ceiling
4:The Daily Mail is desperate to make out it was a departmental whistle blower as the Sun would say "Wot did it!"
5: Clearly from the dismayed responses from other cabinet ministers that they may be being monitored, they are as dumb as he is!
Did the contracts for building and security specify "no filming of ministers in compromising positions"?

If not, it shows how incompetent they are at making contracts. As if we needed any further evidence.

And, of course, this quote:

“The innocent have nothing to fear” - words famously uttered by Michael Howard, Home Secretary for John Major’s UK government and leader of the Opposition in the Tony Blair years. But with a 98% reported failure rate of the Metropolitan Police’s 2018 live facial recognition tests – findings that were discussed in the UK Parliament at the time – it’s hard to make such a claim with any confidence.

But they do need updates to include arsal recognition.
 

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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I don't think our brains and language are very good at thinking and writing about uncertainties. Yes, it is something that must be considered. But we need to be careful not to make it appear to be a proved case unless and until it is.

(Just there, I almost put "case until", then realised the implicit assumption that it is just a matter of time until it is. Which was not what I meant.)
Actually engineers spend a lot of time in the uncertain world of probabilities
since when things go belly up it's usually because we waited too long for verifiable proof and proof made it's unpleasant appearance in ways we regret.
Hence we can attach a probability to that hypotheses
Risk Event ProbabilityInterpretationRating
> 0 - <= 0.05Extremely sure not to occurLow
> 0.05 - <= 0.15Almost sure not to occurLow
> 0.15 - <= 0.25Not likely to occurLow
> 0.25 - <= 0.35Not very likely to occurLow
> 0.35 - <= 0.45Somewhat less than an even chanceMedium
> 0.45 - <= 0.55An even chance to occurMedium
> 0.55 - <= 0.65Somewhat greater than an even chanceMedium
> 0.65 - <= 0.75Likely to occurHigh
> 0.75 - <= 0.85Very likely to occurHigh
> 0.85 - <= 0.95Almost sure to occurHigh
> 0.95 - < 1Extremely sure to occurHigh
Is the Virus engineered to some degree?
At the moment I rate that possibility somewhere around 0.3
Further to that if it is then the probability of accident gets a rating of 0.6
 
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oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
10,422
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Actually engineers spend a lot of time in the uncertain world of probabilities
since when things go belly up it's usually because we waited too long for verifiable proof and proof made it's unpleasant appearance in ways we regret.
Hence we can attach a probability to that hypotheses
Risk Event ProbabilityInterpretationRating
> 0 - <= 0.05Extremely sure not to occurLow
> 0.05 - <= 0.15Almost sure not to occurLow
> 0.15 - <= 0.25Not likely to occurLow
> 0.25 - <= 0.35Not very likely to occurLow
> 0.35 - <= 0.45Somewhat less than an even chanceMedium
> 0.45 - <= 0.55An even chance to occurMedium
> 0.55 - <= 0.65Somewhat greater than an even chanceMedium
> 0.65 - <= 0.75Likely to occurHigh
> 0.75 - <= 0.85Very likely to occurHigh
> 0.85 - <= 0.95Almost sure to occurHigh
> 0.95 - < 1Extremely sure to occurHigh
Is the Virus engineered to some degree?
At the moment I rate that possibility somewhere around 0.3
Further to that if it is then the probability of accident gets a rating of 0.6
Yes - engineers and statisticians do manage to discuss such things. But only when they apply lots of effort, and study the subject.

And in my niche of medical information, the inability of those who should know better to understand is devastating.

Imagine you have a shower in your bathroom. Showers have flow rates between 8 and 20 litres per minute. Therefore, if you shower runs at any rate in that range it is fine. Ignoring that the rate for your specific shower should, perhaps be 14, so a measurement of 8.1 is very much questionable. And the, "well, 7 is only just out of range so no issue".

Applying population statistics to individuals is so common in medicine, it is staggering that there is a single qualified statistician employed anywhere.

In the case of the man-madeness of Covid-19, we are not actually discussing whether or not it was. But whether or not we believe is was. The reality is binary - it either was, or was not, for any given definition of being man-made. Everything else is perception and attempting to discern the reality.
 

oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
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There is no truth in the rumour that the government has been on eBay bulk-purchasing petards, self-hoisting for the use of.

43016
 
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