Brexit, for once some facts.

Nev

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UK military chiefs self-isolate after head of army catches Covid
Nick Carter is in his early 60s so I assume will have had both jabs, I wonder how long ago he had those injections? If some time ago, is he an example of the immunity wearing off after a few months? It might be just coincidence but over the last couple of weeks there seems to be several people coming down with Covid even though they had both jabs.

I know the vaccine is not 100% effective, but I do wonder if the protection it provides against the Delta variant only lasts a few months. There was an article over the weekend that helps to explain that we are likely to see more and more people who have been vaccinated, coming down with Covid due to maths.

Here is the article.
Why most people who now die with Covid in England have had a vaccination | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters | The Guardian
 
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flecc

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this is a bit of conspiracy theory for you:

QUOTE from that paper:

"To engineer and create a human-targeting coronavirus, they would have to pick a bat coronavirus as the template/backbone. This can be conveniently done because many research labs have been actively collecting bat coronaviruses over the past two decades32,33,70,72,81-85. However, this template virus ideally should not be one from Dr. Zhengli Shi’s collections, considering that she is widely known to have been engaged in gain-of-function studies on coronaviruses [her work was paid for by American government]. Therefore, ZC45 and/or ZXC21, novel bat coronaviruses discovered and owned by [Chinese] military laboratories33, would be suitable as the template/backbone. It is also possible that these military laboratories had discovered other closely related viruses from the same location and kept some unpublished. Therefore, the actual template could be ZC45, or ZXC21, or a close relative of them.
The postulated pathway described below would be the same regardless of which one of the three was the actual template. Once they have chosen a template virus, they would first need to engineer, through molecular cloning, the Spike protein so that it can bind hACE2.
The concept and cloning techniques involved in this manipulation have been well-documented in the literature44-46,84,86. With almost no risk of failing, the template bat virus could then be converted to a coronavirus that can bind hACE2 and infect humans44-46.
Second, they would use molecular cloning to introduce a furin-cleavage site at the S1/S2 junction of Spike. This manipulation, based on known knowledge60,61,65, would likely produce a strain of coronavirus that is a more infectious and pathogenic.
Third, they would produce an ORF1b gene construct. The ORF1b gene encodes the polyprotein Orf1b, which is processed post-translationally to produce individual viral proteins: RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp), helicase, guanidine-N7 methyltransferase, uridylate-specific endoribonuclease, and 2’-O-methyltransferase.
All of these proteins are parts of the replication machinery of the virus. Among them, the RdRp protein is the most crucial one and is highly conserved among coronaviruses. Importantly, Dr. Zhengli Shi’s laboratory uses a PCR protocol, which amplifies a particular fragment of the RdRp gene, as their primary method to detect the presence of coronaviruses in raw samples (bat fecal swap, feces, etc). As a result of this practice, the Shi group has documented the sequence information of this short segment of RdRp for all coronaviruses that they have successfully detected and/or collected. Here, the genetic manipulation is less demanding or complicated because Orf1b is conserved and likely Orf1b from any β coronavirus would be competent enough to do the work. However, we believe that they would want to introduce a particular Orf1b into the virus for one of the two possible reasons:
1. Since many phylogenetic analyses categorize coronaviruses based on the sequence similarity of the RdRp gene only18,31,35,83,87, having a different RdRp in the genome therefore could ensure that SARS-CoV-2 and ZC45/ZXC21 are separated into different groups/sub-lineages in phylogenetic studies. Choosing an RdRp gene, however, is convenient because the short RdRp segment sequence has been recorded for all coronaviruses ever collected/detected. Their final choice was the RdRp sequence from bat coronavirus RaBtCoV/4991, which was discovered in 2013. For RaBtCoV/4991, the only information ever published wasthe sequence of its short RdRp segment83, while neither its full genomic sequence nor virus isolation were ever reported. After amplifying the RdRp segment (or the whole ORF1b gene) of RaBatCoV/4991, they would have then used it for subsequent assembly and creation of the genome of SARS-CoV-2. Small changes in the RdRp 17 sequence could either be introduced at the beginning (through DNA synthesis) or be generated via passages later on. On a separate track, when they were engaged in the fabrication of the RaTG13 sequence, they could have started with the short RdRp segment of RaBtCoV/4991 without introducing any changes to its sequence, resulting in a 100% nucleotide sequence identity between the two viruses on this short RdRp segment83. This RaTG13 virus could then be claimed to have been discovered back in 2013.
2. The RdRp protein from RaBatCoV/4991 is unique in that it is superior than RdRp from any other β coronavirus for developing antiviral drugs.
RdRp has no homologs in human cells, which makes this essential viral enzyme a highly desirable target for antiviral development.
As an example, Remedesivir, which is currently undergoing clinical trials, targets RdRp. When creating a novel and human-targeting virus, they would be interested in developing the antidote as well. Even though drug discovery like this may not be easily achieved, it is reasonable for them to intentionally incorporate a RdRp that is more amenable for antiviral drug development.
Fourth, they would use reverse genetics to assemble the gene fragments of spike, ORF1b, and the rest of the template ZC45 into a cDNA version of the viral genome. They would then carry out in vitro transcription to obtain the viral RNA genome. Transfection of the RNA genome into cells would allow the recovery of live and infectious viruses with the desired artificial genome.
Fifth, they would carry out characterization and optimization of the virus strain(s) to improve the fitness, infectivity, and overall adaptation using serial passage in vivo. One or several viral strains that meet certain criteria would then be obtained as the final product(s). "
I read every word, all the way through.

Do I get a prize?
.
 
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Danidl

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But they seem to lack the ability to become more deadly and transmissible at the rate this one does.
As if several variants already exist and are being released at intervals
The huge difference between then and now is that the global population for most of recorded history was about 500 million , and we now have 7000 million.. this is not just a linear increase, but more like Factorial in the number of interactions per second., Then factor in the multiplier for rapid travel . So the potential for rapid spread and new variants was never better.
There was an article in Nature recently which referred back to earlier sequences on Bat viruses and even the very early Wuhan cases in December 2019, which seem to be qualitatively different than the current viruses. The speculation is that when the early Wuhan virus got spreading, it spawned the variants which were more virulent.,and with different characteristics. That was one of the things that puzzled me. The Wuhan version seemed to be detectable as a temperature rise relatively early into the infective stage , whereas that is not so currently.
 
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Woosh

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covid seems to be an economic weapon, not a military one.
The research paper was a justification for Donald Trump for calling it the Chinese virus.
 

flecc

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This is interesting (and makes a mockery of Brexit)
Love it. The West tries to impose blockading sanctions against Russia yet they end up net exporters fourth only to the three exporting giants, Germany, Japan, China.

While the two leading sanctioners, the USA and UK end up with the worst balances of trade.

When will we ever learn? Sanctions never work against anyone, in fact Russia has benefitted from them to a huge extent economically.
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oyster

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Follow the data, they said. Which this isn't:

Sajid Javid: Covid restrictions in England ‘must end on 19 July’
New health secretary says country will have to learn to live with virus, and easing will be ‘irreversible’

What does it mean to learn to live with something you can't see and can kill you?

As I read it, that is a let it rip policy. No matter what happens. Live with - or just die with it.
 
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Nev

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Government trying to come up with plans to avoid gaps on Supermarket shelves due to Brexit. They are desperate to try and hide the mess that Brexit undoubtedly is. Panic buying leading to food shortages would not be a good look for Boris at the moment.

Even a few Brexitiers are starting to realize that the problems we are currently having with the Delta variant are mainly down to him preventing us putting India on the red list early doors because he wanted to go there and stitch up some tiny trade deal and so claim what a great success Brexit is.

Lorry driver shortage: UK government and retailers in emergency talks | Food & drink industry | The Guardian
 

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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Sajid Javid: Covid restrictions in England ‘must end on 19 July’
New health secretary says country will have to learn to live with virus, and easing will be ‘irreversible’
They have no other option, we can't pay people not to work indefinitely, we can't keep businesses shut down indefinitely, we can't keep the young out of school indefinitely

What does it mean to learn to live with something you can't see and can kill you?
It means we must protect ourselves while continuing life as normal as possible. Masking, social distancing, hygene and generally employing commonsense to avoid infection.

Almost 85% of us have succeeded in not catching Covid-19 and 97.9% of us have avoided dying from it. These could have been much higher with more sense employed.
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oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
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Government trying to come up with plans to avoid gaps on Supermarket shelves due to Brexit. They are desperate to try and hide the mess that Brexit undoubtedly is. Panic buying leading to food shortages would not be a good look for Boris at the moment.

Even a few Brexitiers are starting to realize that the problems we are currently having with the Delta variant are mainly down to him preventing us putting India on the red list early doors because he wanted to go there and stitch up some tiny trade deal and so claim what a great success Brexit is.

Lorry driver shortage: UK government and retailers in emergency talks | Food & drink industry | The Guardian
Was in Tesco earlier.

Not sure what is happening - might be refurb. - but one entire chilled food gondola was empty due to being replaced. Yet there were gaps all over the remaining ones. And another whole gondola of food has been totally removed. Yet there were gaps and gaps. Fruit and veg. looked like Tuesday after a busy Bank holiday - not a quotidian Monday. Lots of crates turned upside down. Only about six packs of broccoli left.

Morrisons, Aldi, Lidl and M&S have also all had gaps recently - not just once, but every time we go.
 
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oyster

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They have no other option, we can't pay people not to work indefinitely, we can't keep businesses shut down indefinitely, we can't keep the young out of school indefinitely



It means we must protect ourselves while continuing life as normal as possible. Masking, social distancing, hygene and generally employing commonsense to avoid infection.

Almost 85% of us have succeeded in not catching Covid-19 and 99.8% of us have avoided dying from it. These could have been much higher with more sense employed.
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But if all restrictions are removed, people won't be wearing masks, won't be maintaining distance. And I can see people stopping the placement of hygiene facilities.
 

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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But if all restrictions are removed, people won't be wearing masks, won't be maintaining distance. And I can see people stopping the placement of hygiene facilities.
Nobody is telling them not to, so they can carry on as long as they like. And I'm betting the government will be advising that.

From the beginning the Swedish government avoided ordering people what to do, just advised them and left them to it. Nor did they shut businesses and most schools, again just asking them to use common sense. The result a third lower death rate than us.

At this point someone usually tries to tell me they are very different, but that is bunkum. The Swedes and their country are far more like us than any of our closer EU neighbours.
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flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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Was in Tesco earlier.

Not sure what is happening - might be refurb. - but one entire chilled food gondola was empty due to being replaced. Yet there were gaps all over the remaining ones. And another whole gondola of food has been totally removed. Yet there were gaps and gaps. Fruit and veg. looked like Tuesday after a busy Bank holiday - not a quotidian Monday. Lots of crates turned upside down. Only about six packs of broccoli left.

Morrisons, Aldi, Lidl and M&S have also all had gaps recently - not just once, but every time we go.
The Brexit effect, food not reaching us. The government probably likes it since it cuts our imports bill and may help the fight against obesity.
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oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
10,422
14,609
West West Wales
Nobody is telling them not to, so they can carry on as long as they like. And I'm betting the government will be advising that.

From the beginning the Swedish government avoided ordering people what to do, just advised them and left them to it. Nor did they shut businesses and most schools, again just asking them to use common sense. The result a third lower death rate than us.

At this point someone usually tries to tell me they are very different, but that is bunkum. The Swedes and their country are far more like us than any of our closer EU neighbours.
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I've already seen people not bothering with masks, not leaving gaps - even when easy to do. They are simply ignoring rules - I'm sure advice will be even less effective. And pots of hand sanitiser are often empty. Few are sanitising baskets and trolleys.
 

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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I've already seen people not bothering with masks, not leaving gaps - even when easy to do. They are simply ignoring rules - I'm sure advice will be even less effective. And pots of hand sanitiser are often empty. Few are sanitising baskets and trolleys.
I agree, but that's their problem.

Sainsburys in my area have been very good with sanitisers around the store as well as the entrance where they even provide paper towels, and even sanitiser in two places when leaving, but they've never sanitised trolleys and no supermarket sanitises baskets.

Incidentally they also don't have all the shortages you've mentioned with the others, nor have Waitrose, and both insist on masking, not allowing entry without unless with a medical exemption certificate.
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