that means disputes about the SM have to be arbitrated by the ECJ.
I don't think BJ is going to take it, at least not until an initial deal with the USA is done.
Brexit, for once some facts.
- Thread starter flecc
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I don't think BJ is going to take it, at least not until an initial deal with the USA is done.
They have a cop out clause though, so we can't make too much of this.
Totally unconnected with Brexit and affecting the whole EU, as part of a much wider free trade deal the Japanese government reached a deal with the EU in 2017 which reduces the tariff of Japanese cars to zero year by year over five years. Already it's down by three-fifths from it's 10% on cars and 3% on parts, so will nearly have gone next year.
That calls into question whether it's worth them assembling in the EU when shipping cars is now so cheap to do with today's specialised car transporters. Honda decided the tariff reductions so far and the cost of setting up for e-cars here meant it's already worth giving up in the UK, with Brexit's uncertain outcome probably also a factor. They've just launched their first Japanese made e-car model here.
For the same reasons Nissan a year ago scrapped plans to make the X-trail and Infinity cars here, it's these lower volume models like Honda's forthcoming e-cars that are most threatened. I suspect this is also why we had to give Toyota a huge bribe to keep it's Auris/Corolla assembly here.
If we don't reach a no-tariff deal with the EU, Nissan will eventually go over time.
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Weeks ago, Handcock promised to garnish Lady Dildo’s pie with a cherry. He made that promise when speaking at at one of the daily Downing Street clown shows. Anyone seen the cherry? Are we supposed not to ask about that now and look at the migrants floating in the sea on air mattresses instead?
The recently changed statistics for Covid-19 deaths seems to show a much lower number than the ONS.
If you have Covid-19, and are tested, but survive more than 28 days, I assume you will not be in the first figure. Even if you were in an ICU being treated for the entire time. After all, once tested and being treated, why would anyone re-test you?
If you have Covid-19, and are tested, but survive more than 28 days, I assume you will not be in the first figure. Even if you were in an ICU being treated for the entire time. After all, once tested and being treated, why would anyone re-test you?
It's meaningless. According to tonight's news, anyone dying within 28 days of a test is recorded as a Covid-19 death, regardless of the cause of death.
And basing anything on a mention of Covid on a death certificate is silly. Doctors frequently cannot be certain of a cause of death, so in the middle of a pandemic, of course it will often be mentioned as a possible factor.
So both encourage overstatement of Covid-19.
There's more reason for optimism elsewhere. In many parts of Europe and the UK we are seeing a rise in the infection rate, but everywhere in those parts the death rate is falling as a proportion of that. There's a lot of official puzzling about why that is, but once again I believe its because we've already lost the most vulnerable peple
I'm just content that Covid is less inclined to be fatal now, whatever the reason.
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Not entirely convinced by your argument.
In areas which have had very low rates, like Ceredigion, it was the distancing and so on which prevented transmission. So their vulnerable people would be just as vulnerable as before. Do you think that an outbreak there will have the same death rate as other areas (like London)? Or will conform to the newly observed lower rate?
I have a suspicion that there are other factors. For example, if there has been very widespread transmission of viral particles which have been damaged, such that they are not viable for passing on the disease, perhaps we can develop some measure of immunity without having Covid-19? (This is pure hypothetical speculation - trying to come up with some sort of mechanism for the sake of discussion, however unlikely.)
Not enough to show up in an antigen or antibody test. Just enough to prime the immune system so that its response is better.
As said, the factors aren't officially known, but I still believe the vulnerability argument is more valid. It certainly fits what's happened in London with taking a big hit at the outset and suffering far less since. You saw how some tried to argue against that long ago, but now months later it's still as true. And it fits what's been happening later in lower population areas over the whole period.
And the lower pro rata death rate is showing right across Europe wherever there's an increase in the infection rate. If it was as simple as only being in low population density areas, that would have been spotted.
I believe it's just a vulnerability issue, those most vulnerable will get it anyway and be more at risk of death. The higher the density area, London for example, the quicker that happens. Those less vulnerable who are left now ensure a much lower following infection rate, regardless of contacts.
For me the official flaw has been the assumption that it's so infectious that everyone is at high risk. I think that is rubbish. If it were true we'd have seen much higher continuing rates in the highest density living and working areas in London.
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The reality is no one knows for sure how this virus behaves long term and maybe never will. I was in Portsmouth yesterday doing some shopping, it's remarkable how people are behaving many weeks on from all the measures that are/were imposed. Walk down an isle in a Supermarket and someone coming the other way will stop and wait till you give them room to pass, even walking down the street you still get swerved by those passing by. Many are still wearing masks outside as well as in stores.
The infection rate in Pompey was very low compared to many parts of the country, although nobody seems to understand why but I believe it's all down to the fact that in most cases people just behaved well and got on with it.
Stand in a queue look round and the person behind is still even now standing two metres back, everything in that city just seems to work well. I've seen people meeting in the street and they still bang elbows or tap the backs of their hands together just as they did months back, nothing's changed. No big hit here on the coast, and there won't ever be either I'm sure of it.
The infection rate in Pompey was very low compared to many parts of the country, although nobody seems to understand why but I believe it's all down to the fact that in most cases people just behaved well and got on with it.
Stand in a queue look round and the person behind is still even now standing two metres back, everything in that city just seems to work well. I've seen people meeting in the street and they still bang elbows or tap the backs of their hands together just as they did months back, nothing's changed. No big hit here on the coast, and there won't ever be either I'm sure of it.
Sorry flecc, I still think that is whistling against the wind. The only part of your thesis I accept is that the lowest lieing fruit is already plucked . One of the more telling arguments is the Covaid worldometer graphic of new infections and deaths. There is a lag, but increased deaths correlate with increased infections and with a significant lag. The other statistic is that when treatment has finished 5% of the positively identified patients with CV19 are dead. Now this figure has mercifully reduced from the 11%of a few months ago, but is stubbornly remaining at 5% for weeks now.
Earlier I had suggested that the behaviour of Londoners had modified following March. Your view being I did not understand London .. however the London Underground statistics suggest otherwise. The month of May this year, the latest t date for figures, shows 13 million journeys as opposed to the typical 100 million .. now that is a sizable difference .I see the Tube as one of the worst vectors for infection.. limited air volume, aur turbulence recycling ground level particles into the air. If people avoid the tube ,they cut out a major risk.
My morning tweet
Today’s YouGov voting intention has Labour within 2 points of the Tories.
This isn’t Tory voters migrating to Labour
Good! they are reaching people capable of thinking for themselves, Tory voters are not likely to suffer from that are they? not now, not ever.
Today’s YouGov voting intention has Labour within 2 points of the Tories.
This isn’t Tory voters migrating to Labour
Good! they are reaching people capable of thinking for themselves, Tory voters are not likely to suffer from that are they? not now, not ever.
We are seeing a very wide variation in behaviour.
People have been pretty good. But as holidaymakers have arrived, more people seem simply to be forgetting or ignoring distancing. Like diving in front to reach something from a supermarket shelf. Or going past rather than round the other way. I don't think all of them are holidaymakers by any means.
The other thing is that an awful lot of people seem to come into Wales and, simply because it is not compulsory, not wear masks. I know all the arguments. But if you had to in England, you must be aware, so why stop the moment you cross the border?
Appears children are far more important wrt Covid-19 than hitherto assumed:
'Tain't What You Do (It's the Way That You Do It)
I cannot divorce the algorithm from its implementation. A bit like using Pythagorus' theorem on a non-right-angled triangle. It would be nonsense. But declaiming how right was Pythagorus doesn't make the choice to use it inappropriately any better, does it?
Same in London and Northern Surrey, very large numbers treating distancing very casually as they've done throughout, as I've been doing myself to a fair extent.
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Which is the core of my argument and why we've had so much better a rate since those early days of double the rest of the country.
The lockdown began 16th March so large numbers of Londoners were off work and out of the tube and buses for two full months before the May figures. Ergo May was not the big later drop you wish to portray. You simply just want to avoid the facts to retain your original mistaken view.
Long ago you were denying my view that London's low infection rate following the initial high one would be maintained, but it has been, with only Hillingdon which services Heathrow Airport with around 57,000 staff an exception for obvious reasons.
My views also predicted that those who hadn't had a big initial hit would suffer much later with a surge that London would avoid, and that came true right there in Ireland when the success you were so proud of ended with a later surge in infections.
Your expression "lowest lieing fruit" I've always maintained as being "those most vulnerable", and the later results show my view to be true:
Early big hit = much lower later infection and death rates. e.g. London
Lack of early big hit = sudden later surges in infections. e.g. South Korea and many of our thinly populated areas.
It's all about vulnerability to both catching and subsequent infection seriousness.
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The Irish position and more than half our fatalities were in care homes, where a lacuna developed. We fully locked down, with only care workers in attendance. Unfortunately these care workers were typically the husbands of Philippines Nurses , working in acute hospitals. Inevitably a fraction of the nurses got CV, even with PPE, and then their spouses and then it ran like wildfire in carehomes.
The next group is the new range of infections in food processing .. chilled food production, meat plants . Now ,this actually echos a discussion we had last December about literacy and choices . A significant fraction of these workers with CV19 are immigrants or migrant and living in cramped conditions ..there will be investigations on this as they are not being accorded Irish /EU labour law rights.
My point is that the may to june figure for London Tube is 13% of the traffic historically carried over the last 5 years. This is behaviour modification.
Over 80% of Londoners do not use the Tube each day. Over 70% of Londoners do not use any public transport each day, so their relevance to this subject is very limited.
And the infection pattern bears no relationship either. In the earlier stages of the Pandemic my own borough of Croydon, London's largest, was the worst hit in London, but we don't have the Tube, nor do the boroughs on either side, Sutton and Bromley. What we do have is some of London's highest private car use. Later it was the North London boroughs with the great majority of the Tube network that successively took the worst hit title from us in South London, despite the mid March lockdown and the Tube use tumbling as you've observed, while our rates fell.
As I keep pointing out, the officialand scientific claims do not match the actuality and never have done. This pandemic is not as deadly as has been said, that is just a product of the hysteria that today's societies are so prone to. A fairly small proportion of a population are prone to catching it, an even smaller proportion of dying from it. It really doesn't matter a damn what the rest do in the way of social distancing and protection, they'll have minimal effect of infection rates, and what is and has been happening in society proves it.
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I was watching CNBC a few days ago and I think there were some schools in Florida where there had been Covid outbreaks that they had had to close. Several Universities which had gone back to conventional teaching have switched back to on line learning, again due to outbreaks.
I can't help but think about all those outbreaks that occurred in meat processing plants all around the world a few months ago. The conditions in those plants ie. No or very little sun light, areas with temperatures kept to between 4 and 6 degrees centigrade, very damp atmosphere. Those conditions sound very similar to a British winter to me, and the virus seems to really love those conditions.
So when our weather becomes more like a meat processing plant, when schools, colleges and universities are back in full swing, and when more people are back to work, traveling on buses, trains and the tube I am worried that we might be back to where we were a few months ago.
On the plus side we know a lot more about the virus now than we did, and we seem to have treatments that provide some benefit. I think though we desperately need a vaccine otherwise I don't see how we get out of this mess we find ourselves in.
I was just listening to LBC, they did a one hour programme on the virus between 4 and 5 with a Doctor (who was very good) answering questions. He reported that rates are increasing fairly quickly in both France and Germany and several other European countries. If this is happening at the height of summer what is going to happen in winter?
Why don’t they just give every child an A*? It would be a lot simpler, cause less tears and everyone could go to university to do a degree in films or going on holiday.
I’ve just heard about the 55 year (minimum term) prison sentence the brother of the pig who carried out the Manchester bombing has received. Now that’s a proper Misters sentence. Imagine sitting in your prison cell, right now, thinking about the next 55 years and knowing that it will be spent living with men who, given the slightest chance, will literally rip you apart. 55 years 