Brexit, for once some facts.

oldgroaner

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Apparently the UK USA and European Covid strains are not the same as the ones on China?

A mutation of COVID-19 found in Malaysia is the predominant strain found in Europe and US
The D614G mutation of COVID-19 has been found in a handful of cases in Malaysia. The mutation is the predominant one found in Europe and the US. However, while reports have said that this strain is more infectious, it is not necessarily more fatal.
 

oyster

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Nov 7, 2017
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Apparently the UK USA and European Covid strains are not the same as the ones on China?

A mutation of COVID-19 found in Malaysia is the predominant strain found in Europe and US
The D614G mutation of COVID-19 has been found in a handful of cases in Malaysia. The mutation is the predominant one found in Europe and the US. However, while reports have said that this strain is more infectious, it is not necessarily more fatal.
A virus strain with its own website! How forward-thinking of it:

https://d614g.com/

And a bit more info - seemingly reasonably written (but what do I know?):

https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/what-the-d614g-mutation-means-for-covid-19-spread-fatality-treatment-and-vaccine-7dda1c066f0d
 

oldgroaner

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here's Boris's get out of Jail card free
"
David McAllister, the chair of the European Parliament’s UK Coordination Group, told German newspaper Börsen-Zeitung the EU had made “a unique and highly attractive offer to the UK that has never been made to a third country: quota-free and duty-free access for goods to the single market”.

But he said in the interest of “fair competition” that the UK must accept the level playing field to progress in negotiations.

Odds, anyone?
 
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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What was the old saying?

"I wish I could capture your optimism
we could bottle it and
sell it to broken down streetwalkers" :rolleyes:
That's the trouble today, not enough optimism so people get the wrong end of the stick. Take the myth that old peple are more at risk then the young from Covid-19, it's just not true.

At my 84 years I'm far more at risk of dying of any of the other possible disease causes than young people, so my odds of doing that before Covid gets me are very much higher than for any of the young.

Ergo my risk of Covid being my cause of death at present is proportionally very much lower than theirs and the older I get, the more true this becomes. ;)
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Danidl

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That's the trouble today, not enough optimism so people get the wrong end of the stick. Take the myth that old peple are more at risk then the young from Covid-19, it's just not true.

At my 84 years I'm far more at risk of dying of any of the other possible disease causes than young people, so my odds of doing that before Covid gets me are very much higher than for any of the young.

Ergo my risk of Covid being my cause of death at present is proportionally very much lower than theirs.
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I think your risk estimations are all wrong. What is your odds of the bungee cord failing when jumping in the cheddar gorge ?. Or potholing landslides or overdosing at a Rave in Ibiza
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,200
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I think your risk estimations are all wrong. What is your odds of the bungee cord failing when jumping in the cheddar gorge ?. Or potholing landslides or overdosing at a Rave in Ibiza
No, few do many of these any more, too busy staring at their smartphone screens. Anyway they aren't diseases.

There's probably just as many old 'uns doing parachute jumps or hang gliding for the experience before they die.
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jonathan.agnew

Esteemed Pedelecer
Dec 27, 2018
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That's the trouble today, not enough optimism so people get the wrong end of the stick. Take the myth that old peple are more at risk then the young from Covid-19, it's just not true.

At my 84 years I'm far more at risk of dying of any of the other possible disease causes than young people, so my odds of doing that before Covid gets me are very much higher than for any of the young.

Ergo my risk of Covid being my cause of death at present is proportionally very much lower than theirs and the older I get, the more true this becomes. ;)
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But were only at the beginning of the pandemic. Unless there is a vaccine that actually works (having worked in HIV before I dont share the general optimism - and that's before considering the 40% of the great British electorate who say they wont take it) and with our wonderful leadership's record on controlling the spread this could become like everyone taking up bungee jumping at a bridge where its predetermined that the rope will snap up to 10% of the time. More or less twice better odds than Russian roulette, but not something I'd do voluntarily.
 

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
53,200
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But were only at the beginning of the pandemic. Unless there is a vaccine that actually works (having worked in HIV before I dont share the general optimism -
Agreed, but I'm not worried about this pandemic, since I'm much more likely to die of something else before Covid-19 gets me, just look at the odds:

I already have heart disease and have suffered a heart attack 13 years ago. I've suffered numerous tachycardial heart attacks since. I have all the usual wear and tear of 84 years of life. I have the slow form of prostate cancer which could turn aggressive at any time. At one time I smoked for almost 40 years, much of it very heavily, 60 a day. I'm physically very limited now. Any of these could wipe me out in an instant.

Now what is Covid's chance? I live alone in isolation. I do my shopping off peak in the late evening when the supermarket is almost empty. My interests and exercise consist of walking in the countryide by myself. My travel is to visit myself somewhere else, alone in my own e-car which I fill up with electricity within my garage. All other purchases are online.

Poor old Covid hardly has a chance!
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jonathan.agnew

Esteemed Pedelecer
Dec 27, 2018
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Agreed, but I'm not worried about this pandemic, since I'm much more likely to die of something else before Covid-19 gets me, just look at the odds:

I already have heart disease and have suffered a heart attack 13 years ago. I've suffered numerous tachycardial heart attacks since. I have all the usual wear and tear of 84 years of life. I have the slow form of prostate cancer which could turn aggressive at any time. At one time I smoked for almost 40 years, much of it very heavily, 60 a day. I'm physically very limited now. Any of these could wipe me out in an instant.

Now what is Covid's chance? I live alone in isolation. I do my shopping off peak in the late evening when the supermarket is almost empty. My interests and exercise consist of walking in the countryide by myself. My travel is to visit myself somewhere else, alone in my own e-car which I fill up with electricity within my garage. All other purchases are online.

Poor old Covid hardly has a chance!
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I'm a bit younger, but in many respects I'm similar (even smoked up to 50/day for fifteen years). Perhaps I have a bit more of a neurotic disposition. But on my quiet evening run last night I had to pass about 15 unmasked teens blocking an otherwise always empty double track path. And at 7am in sainsbury's on monday a young mother and her two kids without masks kept fussing around me. In my fifties I'm not too concerned about dying, but think risk may be quite idiosyncratic, the virus may get one anyhow once things take off again. But there's an inevitability about it all. No doubt there will be more lies and clapping excess deaths and there's very little anyone can do about that.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,200
30,603
I'm a bit younger, but in many respects I'm similar (even smoked up to 50/day for fifteen years). Perhaps I have a bit more of a neurotic disposition. But on my quiet evening run last night I had to pass about 15 unmasked teens blocking an otherwise always empty double track path. And at 7am in sainsbury's on monday a young mother and her two kids without masks kept fussing around me. In my fifties I'm not too concerned about dying, but think risk may be quite idiosyncratic, the virus may get one anyhow once things take off again. But there's an inevitability about it all. No doubt there will be more lies and clapping excess deaths and there's very little anyone can do about that.
I don't have those two risks you mentioned, few youngsters these days have any interest in their natural world so I don't meet them in the countryside. And when I call at my huge edge of town Sainsburys this evening after 8pm, there won't be any mums with kids in sight and it will be almost empty aisles everywhere. The few customers there wear masks. I don't even park next to another car since the car park has hardly any cars at that time.
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oldgroaner

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Nov 15, 2015
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My latest tweet
oldgroaner@oldgroaner

Replying to
@LBC
Clearly Public Health England didn't offer Hancock sufficient protection from carrying the blame he so justly deserves
As Churchill once remarked
"It's pointless to criticise the Monkey for the tune it's playing when the Organ grinder is present" :rolleyes:
 

oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
10,422
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West West Wales
here's Boris's get out of Jail card free
"
David McAllister, the chair of the European Parliament’s UK Coordination Group, told German newspaper Börsen-Zeitung the EU had made “a unique and highly attractive offer to the UK that has never been made to a third country: quota-free and duty-free access for goods to the single market”.

But he said in the interest of “fair competition” that the UK must accept the level playing field to progress in negotiations.

Odds, anyone?
In my view, it should be a Get Out of Gaol Free card. We use British English!
 

oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
10,422
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West West Wales
Not everyone thinks Williamson is a safe pair of hands!

Parents and teachers have lost faith in Gavin Williamson’s competence to lead a safe return of pupils to England’s schools within two weeks, trade unions and senior MPs from across the divide have warned.

Following the education secretary’s role in the exam results fiasco, Robert Halfon, the Conservative chair of the education select committee, said the prime minister must personally lead the back-to-school campaign in order to ensure confidence.
Just why anyone thinks the PM would ensure confidence, I just don't understand. Most especially as, because he has not sacked Williamson, he has effectively expressed faith in him. Which already puts Johnson and the trade unions and MPs into conflict, does it not?
 

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,461
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Oh Dear
An angry tweeter this morning

Honda is counting down now. Leave MP Justin Tomlinson blocked me for calling him a one man jobs wrecking ball. All these families, 3500 them, their lives ruined by HIM! He told voters in Swindon leaving the EU wouldn’t change anything for Honda
 

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