Brexit, for once some facts.

RossG

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Feb 12, 2019
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I don't know why you think you are telling me that, I told all of you the same at the outset months ago, but obviously your memory is failing you. Anyway, little that many Londoners could do in their living and working circumstances could have made much difference, huge overcrowded cities will always be condemned to suffer much more than elsewhere in any pandemic.

Your trying to say the infection rate fell after we woke up and acted is bullshit. It fell far earlier than anywhere else due to getting the very early double size hit, get it early or get it later. As I'd just posted but you ignored, Londoners are still treating social distancing in a cavalier fashion, and not just Londoners. Miles beyond in Surrey it's still no different now.
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Infection figures for London 05 August 2020 - 11 August 2020 = 152, that's hardly anything to shout about is it now ?
London didn't benefit in the slightest from being hit hard from the get-go, no one in their right mind would have wanted that to happen but as you rightly say given the circumstances unavoidable.
Infection rate fell fast in London because it had farther to fall, a degree in rocket science is not required to understand that one. Many have claimed places like London, Brazil & New York now have herd immunity because the infection rate is low, but considering nobody knows what herd immunity is that's impossible to predict.
As for my claim that infection rates fell when the populous woke up being BS, well that's what happened throughout the UK so why would you believe London would be any different ?

Unless your memory is in a state of fail too you should recall my earlier postings that I could see from my window at the beginning of lockdown people were carrying on unconcerned, but that all changed when as is said " they started killing their grannies " it changed in London too, you can check the timeline. Again you live there so you should be well aware of it.

Infection rate is really low in my neck of the woods and apparently in the city of Portsmouth along the coast as well, it always was because people acted earlier and therefore, to quote the Gov " saved lives " If it kicks off again big time we'll see who's immune and who isn't ;)

On a slightly different note .. there was an elderly chap on the radio recently having a right old rant. He didn't believe in wearing a mask and said if he's going to get it then he will, a mask wont help him so he wont be using one. When he'd calmed down the interviewer reminded him the main purpose of using protection was to help others not just yourself but he'd have non of it.
Now I see that guy as some one who probably lives alone possibly widower who no one cares about sadly. Unfortunately what's reflected back is he's doesn't care about anyone else in return either and it shows, I'm different because I was brought up to care, so I do .. hence my position and the way I behave remains absolutely rock solid.
 
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oyster

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Nov 7, 2017
10,422
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Hmm - theory or reality?
Our kids have lost a significant chunk of their childhood, and yet nobody in government will take responsibility for ministerial failures, writes Guardian columnist Zoe Williams.

I usually have a strong stomach and a sunny, cross-that-bridge attitude when it comes to rumours, but I have just read one that chilled me to the bone: there is a reason Gavin Williamson will not resign, and it is not because he, or anybody else, thinks he is doing a good job under difficult circumstances.

The education secretary needs to stay in post until September so that, when all the promises are broken and English schools don’t, in fact, fully reopen, there can be someone other than the prime minister who can take the blame.

It is so chillingly believable. You just have to look at the government’s record – the more it promises something, the less likely it is to happen. It has made this firm commitment to schoolchildren often enough as to reduce its probability to zero.
 
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Swizz

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Oct 1, 2017
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Hmm - theory or reality?
The reality through my eyes is that we have the most inept & disconnected government of recent history.

The really sad thing is that there have been two general elections where through a media storm of right wing propaganda & complete bullshit we have just sleepwalked to where we are now, where the wheels are falling off in a crisis and people would still be stupid enough to vote them in again.

Approaching the Brexit vote I kept hearing references to ww2 and how "my dad didn't fight the Nazis for us to end up being ruled by Europe!". And now look at us. Persuaded into exiting Europe by a fascist called Nigel and now being led through a crisis by his benefactors.

I'm afraid people have been played *

( * am expecting this view to also be wildly unpopular but hey ho )
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,134
30,556
Infection figures for London 05 August 2020 - 11 August 2020 = 152, that's hardly anything to shout about is it now ?
London didn't benefit in the slightest from being hit hard from the get-go, no one in their right mind would have wanted that to happen but as you rightly say given the circumstances unavoidable.
Infection rate fell fast in London because it had farther to fall, a degree in rocket science is not required to understand that one. Many have claimed places like London, Brazil & New York now have herd immunity because the infection rate is low, but considering nobody knows what herd immunity is that's impossible to predict.
As for my claim that infection rates fell when the populous woke up being BS, well that's what happened throughout the UK so why would you believe London would be any different ?

Unless your memory is in a state of fail too you should recall my earlier postings that I could see from my window at the beginning of lockdown people were carrying on unconcerned, but that all changed when as is said " they started killing their grannies " it changed in London too, you can check the timeline. Again you live there so you should be well aware of it.

Infection rate is really low in my neck of the woods and apparently in the city of Portsmouth along the coast as well, it always was because people acted earlier and therefore, to quote the Gov " saved lives " If it kicks off again big time we'll see who's immune and who isn't ;)

On a slightly different note .. there was an elderly chap on the radio recently having a right old rant. He didn't believe in wearing a mask and said if he's going to get it then he will, a mask wont help him so he wont be using one. When he'd calmed down the interviewer reminded him the main purpose of using protection was to help others not just yourself but he'd have non of it.
Now I see that guy as some one who probably lives alone possibly widower who no one cares about sadly. Unfortunately what's reflected back is he's doesn't care about anyone else in return either and it shows, I'm different because I was brought up to care, so I do .. hence my position and the way I behave remains absolutely rock solid.
Anything to avoid the facts eh?

As you admit London took a very early major hit, rapidly taking us to over double the infection rate of the rest of the country. In consequence 82% of all the Covid-19 deaths to date in London occurred before 8th May.

By the 15th May London had the lowest infection rate in the UK, (Link)and it stayed that way for a long time. Even now we are far below the rate in many other UK urban conurbations, despite Londons huge size and population density and our flying back thousands into Heathrow from heavily affected countries. These outcomes are the bonus of us taking the unintentional big hit early. Of course it wasn't planned, and I've never claimed it was. It couldn't have been. I'm just reporting what has happened because I live here, and like you, I'm not concerned about your area's infection history or any others because they haven't affected me.

What does interest me is the big difference in the infection progression between London and many places elsewhere in the UK and Europe.
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Nev

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 1, 2018
1,507
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So when our weather becomes more like a meat processing plant, when schools, colleges and universities are back in full swing, and when more people are back to work, traveling on buses, trains and the tube I am worried that we might be back to where we were a few months ago.
Berlin opened their schools a couple of weeks ago, CV cases have been reported in at least 41. The Germans I think most people would agree have handled the virus far better than we have, but if they are now having problems, what does that mean when we open our schools.

Details can be found on this link.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/21/coronavirus-iurope-dozens-schools-report-infections-berlin-germany-spain
 
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RossG

Esteemed Pedelecer
Feb 12, 2019
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Anything to avoid the facts eh?

As you admit London took a very early major hit, rapidly taking us to over double the infection rate of the rest of the country. In consequence 82% of all the Covid-19 deaths to date in London occurred before 8th May.

By the 15th May London had the lowest infection rate in the UK, (Link)and it stayed that way for a long time. Even now we are far below the rate in many other UK urban conurbations, despite Londons huge size and population density and our flying back thousands into Heathrow from heavily affected countries. These outcomes are the bonus of us taking the unintentional big hit early. Of course it wasn't planned, and I've never claimed it was. It couldn't have been. I'm just reporting what has happened because I live here, and like you, I'm not concerned about your area's infection history or any others because they haven't affected me.

What does interest me is the big difference in the infection progression between London and many places elsewhere in the UK and Europe.
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Mmmm .. Not sure where you are getting your statistical information from flecc but it isn't the ONS that's for sure.
Their statistics show London most definitely does not have the lowest infection rate in the UK even taking into consideration it's population density, airport etc. Fact avoidance is not really my style TBH I like to go out into the real world and discover the truth and not read the biased drivel that get's reported by those organizations with a political or otherwise agenda which thank the Lord I don't have.
As my partner always tells me ' If you want to know what the weather's doing open a window and stick your hand out' and who's to say she's not right :)
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,134
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Their statistics show London most definitely does not have the lowest infection rate in the UK even taking into consideration it's population density, airport etc.
Try reading, I said HAD. That meant after the peak here as I posted, complete with the date of 15th May. THAT'S OVER THREE MONTHS AGO!

It doesn't any longer but it's still remarkably good in the circumstances and far better than all the hotspots in much smaller urban centres such as the infection surges in the North and many parts of Europe where lockdown has had to be reintroduced. We don't need any new lockdown in London.

If you can't read basic English I can't help you.
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oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,461
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The reality through my eyes is that we have the most inept & disconnected government of recent history.

The really sad thing is that there have been two general elections where through a media storm of right wing propaganda & complete bullshit we have just sleepwalked to where we are now, where the wheels are falling off in a crisis and people would still be stupid enough to vote them in again.

Approaching the Brexit vote I kept hearing references to ww2 and how "my dad didn't fight the Nazis for us to end up being ruled by Europe!". And now look at us. Persuaded into exiting Europe by a fascist called Nigel and now being led through a crisis by his benefactors.

I'm afraid people have been played *

( * am expecting this view to also be wildly unpopular but hey ho )
You are among friends on here, and most including myself entirely agree with your sentiments, I do daily battle on Twitter against what I call the quitters, and drop outs, a more appropriate name for those who still imagine Brexit will turn out for the best :cool:
 

RossG

Esteemed Pedelecer
Feb 12, 2019
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Try reading, I said HAD. That meant after the peak here as I posted, complete with the date of 15th May. THAT'S OVER THREE MONTHS AGO!

It doesn't any longer but it's still remarkably good in the circumstances and far better than all the hotspots in much smaller urban centres such as the infection surges in the North and many parts of Europe where lockdown has had to be reintroduced. We don't need any new lockdown in London.

If you can't read basic English I can't help you.
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Well yes, I can in fact read several languages flecc but thanks for the offer of help. What happened three month's ago is totally irrelevant to what goes on now and if I may say so a unnecessary added diversion.

But back on topic .. What really interests me greatly is why the infection rate was so very low here on the coast, I can think of several reasons why that could be but most of those are right out of the box.
The way I see it anything learned from one area could be applied to other areas not so fortunate.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,134
30,556
What happened three month's ago is totally irrelevant to what goes on now and if I may say so a unnecessary added diversion.
Not it's not irrelevant when it's the precursor to a very much lower following rate of infection and deaths than so many other areas that didn't have early big hits. As you say, lessons can be learned from that, such as the timing and placement of lockdowns to minimise the economic ill effects.

What really interests me greatly is why the infection rate was so very low here on the coast, I can think of several reasons why that could be but most of those are right out of the box.
True of many coastal areas. I would think reducing the external contact radius by 180 degrees is very relevant. Sadly in London we don't have that benefit, quite the opposite in a sense since by virtue of being London we attract a higher concentration of contact than anywhere else. Flying into Heathrow all our potentially infected waifs and strays stranded abroad by Covid being one such example.
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RossG

Esteemed Pedelecer
Feb 12, 2019
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What we do now know for sure is that covid arrived on UK soil around mid Dec 2019 brought in by returning British nationals, almost certainly not Chinese. It reached a peak in four months and has taken around the same amount of time to reach it's lowest level, what can be made of that I don't know but it's something I suppose.
The single one thing I find most infuriating is when it was suggested way back when we had at one point 15000 people a day flying in from overseas, the Scientists .. in other words the Gov .. said it didn't matter as covid was already here. That suggests it was decided right from the start it was almost uncontrollable so tough luck, but with no prevention, no treatment and no cure not even now surely controlling it at source would have slowed it down.
We wouldn't be discussing big hits or no hits if it hadn't been allowed to get here in the first place and let us never forget it never started here, we let it in and killed our own people. History will judge.
 

Danidl

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Sep 29, 2016
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"True of many coastal areas. I would think reducing the external contact radius by 180 degrees is very relevant..." Fully agree with that, and there is the added advantage that there is always a wind on the coast. This means dispersal .
 

Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
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What we do now know for sure is that covid arrived on UK soil around mid Dec 2019 brought in by returning British nationals, almost certainly not Chinese. It reached a peak in four months and has taken around the same amount of time to reach it's lowest level, what can be made of that I don't know but it's something I suppose.
The single one thing I find most infuriating is when it was suggested way back when we had at one point 15000 people a day flying in from overseas, the Scientists .. in other words the Gov .. said it didn't matter as covid was already here. That suggests it was decided right from the start it was almost uncontrollable so tough luck, but with no prevention, no treatment and no cure not even now surely controlling it at source would have slowed it down.
We wouldn't be discussing big hits or no hits if it hadn't been allowed to get here in the first place and let us never forget it never started here, we let it in and killed our own people. History will judge.
Right on.. Even today the UK authorities are faffing about. Flecc berates the Heathrow traffic ..and rightly, but allowing untested ,unquarantineed individuals take the Heathrow express is lunacy. It even feeds into our little Isle. The major party in NI takes its cues from Westminster, not its own medical service, and this stops us having a unified all island approach.
 

RossG

Esteemed Pedelecer
Feb 12, 2019
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"True of many coastal areas. I would think reducing the external contact radius by 180 degrees is very relevant..." Fully agree with that, and there is the added advantage that there is always a wind on the coast. This means dispersal .
It's certainly a luxury living right on the coast, I'm always reminding myself of that. The only trouble is house prices, we have penthouse apartments in the area costing 4 million a pop !
 

jonathan.agnew

Esteemed Pedelecer
Dec 27, 2018
2,400
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Well yes, I can in fact read several languages flecc but thanks for the offer of help. What happened three month's ago is totally irrelevant to what goes on now and if I may say so a unnecessary added diversion.

But back on topic .. What really interests me greatly is why the infection rate was so very low here on the coast, I can think of several reasons why that could be but most of those are right out of the box.
The way I see it anything learned from one area could be applied to other areas not so fortunate.
What puzzles me is the low death rate , a consultant at a Midlands hospital (where covid infections are on the up) say it's because it's mainly the young who are infected. The mayor of New York say theres a much higher incidence of antibodies (and infection) of up to 20% and immunity than official stats and that covid is less deadly than thought. I thought it odd that hospital deaths suddenly became deaths in all settings in uk(and thought hancock was reverting to form) but ons (who I do trust) say there aren't excess deaths at present. It's an enigma, France have infections at 4k plus a day and something like 21 deaths. Perhaps its lag. The next few weeks could be telling. What am I missing?
 

Woosh

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Case mortality rate is now less than 1%.
Possibly down to better understanding of the disease and how to treat it.
 
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oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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What puzzles me is the low death rate , a consultant at a Midlands hospital (where covid infections are on the up) say it's because it's mainly the young who are infected. The mayor of New York say theres a much higher incidence of antibodies (and infection) of up to 20% and immunity than official stats and that covid is less deadly than thought. I thought it odd that hospital deaths suddenly became deaths in all settings in uk(and thought hancock was reverting to form) but ons (who I do trust) say there aren't excess deaths at present. It's an enigma, France have infections at 4k plus a day and something like 21 deaths. Perhaps its lag. The next few weeks could be telling. What am I missing?
A crystal ball?
 

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