Brexit, for once some facts.

Woosh

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May 19, 2012
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Southend on Sea
wooshbikes.co.uk
I am thinking of buying a Nissan van, E-NV200 for woosh local runabout.
Good idea?
 
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oyster

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Nov 7, 2017
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I am thinking of buying a Nissan van, E-NV200 for woosh local runabout.
Good idea?
Glad you mentioned that. Last time I looked, range was ever so disappointing. However, now looks better:

EXPLORE THE NISSAN E-NV200 RANGE
go further than ever before

Thanks to its new 40kWh battery, the e-NV200 now can cover between 124 and 187 miles** (WLTP City and Combined cycle) on a single charge - that's 60% further than the previous generation battery. Combine B-Mode and ECO-Mode to maximise the range of your Nissan e-NV200. Your business will thank you for it.
 
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gw8izr

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Jan 1, 2020
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And by then it could well be viable for all your use, such is the pace of progress. It's been like the earlier computing days, buy one this year and next year it's out of date.
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I wonder how long it will take before something half reasonable is going through the auctions at about 1000 pounds?

Those are the popular cars going through the auction that end up on the forecourt for a couple of grand. Those 60 plate focus / seat / whatever cars that make up a large part of the national fleet.

That’s the market that will signal the change has happened, of course there are no new old cars until there have been new new cars :)

Maybe a bigger shift is a lack of desire to own a private car. When I lived in Oslo I would never have considered using a private car even though my company provided one to me, it just stayed in the parking place at work. When I was a lad I couldn’t wait to get a car and driving has been a huge part of my life, both social and work. But i’ve noticed a change in attitude amongst younger people, less and less of them learn to drive, they don’t aspire to own a car, they don’t want the responsibility of driving and maybe that is the bigger change to private car ownership that will drive older cars off the road and push people towards more sustainable transportation. Don’t know just rambling now :)

We have managed to change technology in the past, we no longer have a coal man bringing sacks of coal round to heat our homes, we no longer have CoalGas to cook with, We managed to change from petrol to diesel, now back to petrol on the way eventually I suppose to electric.
 
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Woosh

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May 19, 2012
20,379
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Southend on Sea
wooshbikes.co.uk
Glasd you mentioned that. Last time I looked, range was ever so disappointing. However, now looks better:

EXPLORE THE NISSAN E-NV200 RANGE
go further than ever before

Thanks to its new 40kWh battery, the e-NV200 now can cover between 124 and 187 miles** (WLTP City and Combined cycle) on a single charge - that's 60% further than the previous generation battery. Combine B-Mode and ECO-Mode to maximise the range of your Nissan e-NV200. Your business will thank you for it.
I can install a 3kw charging pod in our car park.
 
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gw8izr

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Jan 1, 2020
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I don't think that can easily happen, the snag being that they can be charged from a home 13 amp point. Indeed I do half my charging that way to give the battery the easiest possible life.

Obviously home owners couldn't accept or even afford such a massive increase in electricity prices, just look at how little of the cost of diesel and petrol is in the prices we pay per litre..

I think governments are going to come up with a very different taxation model and stop depending so much on road use fuels. There's plenty of time for them to work that out and transition, since it will be 15 to 20 years before the swing ....
Some of this was in my previous reply to your other post, they sort of crossed in the mail :) I fully agree that a new tax model is more likely than simply putting tax on electric used although I’m sure that electricity prices will increase significantly as demand is placed on the generating network.

One advance of technology is that vehicles are so easily tracked that price per mile is really easy to achieve, already in use in Norway. That might make a better fairer system.
 
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vfr400

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Jun 12, 2011
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Basildon
There's a myth or conspiracy theory floating around that the National Grid can't supply enough power if everybody switched to electric cars. This myth can be exposed by a very simple calculation based on facts:

There are 38.4 million registered cars

The average power consumption is 12KW (300Wh per mile) for electric cars while in use.

The average annual mileage for cars in the UK is 7600 miles

335TWh were generated in the UK in 2018, though it was much higher in 2005, where it peaked at about 375 TWh.


Calculation for total power consumed if all registered cars were electric:

300Wh/Mile x 7600miles x 38.4 mil cars = 87.5TWh

Percentage increase in electricity required would be

87.5/335 x 100 = 26%

In the future, you have to consider population growth trending up, car usage trending down, changes to energy usage (reduction programmes) and changes to power generation capacity. Energy usage reduced by about 10% in the last 10 years (40TWh), which is half of what would be needed. It's conceivable that there could be another 10% reduction in the next 10 years.

In summary, I don't see a problem.
 

oldgroaner

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Nov 15, 2015
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There's a curiously appropriate film on at the moment on Sony Movies
"The Mouse that Roared"
Somehow it captures the spirit of Brexit for me.
We are pretty much in the same boat as the Duchy of Grand Fenwick.
Watch and enjoy
 
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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Maybe a bigger shift is a lack of desire to own a private car. When I lived in Oslo I would never have considered using a private car - - - - - - - - - But i’ve noticed a change in attitude amongst younger people, less and less of them learn to drive, they don’t aspire to own a car.
These have already happened in London, from once having the highest rate of car ownership in ths UK, it's now the lowest, and the young particularly don't want to own a car.

Several factors have brought this about:

The congestion charge for entering the central area, now £11.50.

A huge increase in public transport, buses once down to 4500 are now over 9000 on the road.

Integrating public transport under one authority, TfL. That's buses, trams, underground, suburban surface trains, river buses, taxis, minicab legal control, cross Thames cable car and free hire bicycles.

Fare subsidies.

Free travel for all under 16, or under 18 if in full time education, helping to wean them off the idea of a car.

Free travel for all over 60.

Improved cycling facilities and routes, including some segregation from motor traffic.

The free to use central bike hire scheme.

All of my London friends once owned cars, but now only two do, one of those on the outer fringe. Public transport and the odd bicycle use is just so much more convenient and cheaper.
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,203
30,604
There's a myth or conspiracy theory floating around that the National Grid can't supply enough power if everybody switched to electric cars. This myth can be exposed by a very simple calculation based on facts:

There are 38.4 million registered cars

The average power consumption is 12KW (300Wh per mile) for electric cars while in use.

The average annual mileage for cars in the UK is 7600 miles

335TWh were generated in the UK in 2018, though it was much higher in 2005, where it peaked at about 375 TWh.


Calculation for total power consumed if all registered cars were electric:

300Wh/Mile x 7600miles x 38.4 mil cars = 87.5TWh

Percentage increase in electricity required would be

87.5/335 x 100 = 26%

In the future, you have to consider population growth trending up, car usage trending down, changes to energy usage (reduction programmes) and changes to power generation capacity. Energy usage reduced by about 10% in the last 10 years (40TWh), which is half of what would be needed. It's conceivable that there could be another 10% reduction in the next 10 years.

In summary, I don't see a problem.
All very true, and another very big factor is the overnight charging of e-cars when grid consumption is low. All these e-cars have charge timers and owners naturally set them to off peak rate times for the large savings.
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gw8izr

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Jan 1, 2020
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There's a myth or conspiracy theory floating around that the National Grid can't supply enough power if everybody switched to electric cars. This myth can be exposed by a very simple calculation based on facts:

There are 38.4 million registered cars

The average power consumption is 12KW (300Wh per mile) for electric cars while in use.

The average annual mileage for cars in the UK is 7600 miles

335TWh were generated in the UK in 2018, though it was much higher in 2005, where it peaked at about 375 TWh.


Calculation for total power consumed if all registered cars were electric:

300Wh/Mile x 7600miles x 38.4 mil cars = 87.5TWh

Percentage increase in electricity required would be

87.5/335 x 100 = 26%

In the future, you have to consider population growth trending up, car usage trending down, changes to energy usage (reduction programmes) and changes to power generation capacity. Energy usage reduced by about 10% in the last 10 years (40TWh), which is half of what would be needed. It's conceivable that there could be another 10% reduction in the next 10 years.

In summary, I don't see a problem.
As I said earlier I don’t see a particular problem with supplying electricity to charge cars, I do see a significant problem distributing that electricity to where it’s needed to be able to charge those cars.

In terms of generating capacity, In 2019 we relied on coal and gas to provide 47 GW of our generating capacity in the next 10 years that shifts significantly away from our own generating capacity relying much more heavily on interlinks (almost 20 GW) and to meet predicted demand we need another 20 GW of renewable generation capacity on top of today.....

We only have the generating capacity to meet our future needs “if” the changes to demand occur slowly “and” infrastructure change is quick.
 
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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Nissan NV200
The Nissan NV200 e-van was converted to use exactly what my new Leaf car has. Same drive system and battery, hence the big leap in range and performance, 40% more power and a similar gain in range.

Bringing out an NV200 Sport using what's in the limited edition Leaf e-plus would be fun. 100% more power, 7 seconds 0 to 62 mph and a 220 mile range!
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flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
53,203
30,604
As I said earlier I don’t see a particular problem with supplying electricity to charge cars, I do see a significant problem distributing that electricity to where it’s needed to be able to charge those cars.
But don't forget the overnight charging of e-cars that I mentioned on this link. That's done when the the grid is very quiet.
.
 
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jonathan.agnew

Esteemed Pedelecer
Dec 27, 2018
2,400
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Is vampire drain accounted for in miles per kWh calculations? Sounds like it could add a fair whack to usage in vehicle used more sporadically.
Not as far as i know, it's not inconsiderable (mines about 1kwh a day - roughly the consumption of a domestic fridge). Financially its immaterial I guess.
 
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Wicky

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Feb 12, 2014
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Colchester, Essex
www.jhepburn.co.uk
I was listening to an interesting radio article about care for the elderly yesterday. Apparently, the cost of residential care in the U.K. is over £1000 / week, £2000 in some areas, and staff ratios are about 1 carer to six residents.

I was shocked to hear that a large and growing number of U.K. people are sending their elderly relatives to be cared for in The Philippines. The cost is about £600 / week, but staff ratios are 1 to 1. That’s right, 24 hour 1 on 1 care! The care standards are reported to be exceptional.

What I don’t understand is this. In the U.K. care workers are viewed by employers as scum. The lowest of the low, routinely employed on minimum wage. They use 1 of these minimum wage employees to look after 6 people, paying anywhere between £24000 and £48000 per month, between them. Where the hell is All that money going? These people aren’t there to be milked for this kind of profit. They are ill and need looking after.

What I describe is the problem with our care system. That’s what is broken. It’s got out of hand in terms of money.
Care in the community (use of private care homes) came about as the Tories (Thatcher era) took the idea of shutting down large state run institutions and farming out folk to be looked after in privately owned and run care homes. In terms of folk with learning difficulties it was revolutionary to the asylums that preceded it, and was originally a Scandanavian philisophical approach basically caring for the person as an individual. For tories it equalled free market opportunity and kerching £££££....

So profits are likely spent on nice new shiney cars, new homes, holdidays / shareholder dividends.

One learning difficulties residential home I worked at ) couple of decades ago) the owners / management used to fiddle rotas as some clients with challenging behaviour meant that they were paid to provide higher staff ratios - did they heck. And so had two sets of rotas with one to show inspectors ...

Other fiddles were management using blue badge parking badges, even when not transporting clients. Friday client choice fish & night supper, which clients paid out of their own money when home was paid to feed em 24/7 , and many other fiddles.

When I left a long letter was written to Social Services about what was going on dobbing on the abuses going on. All that happened afterwads was that care home changed its name.

Just looked up online reviews and had to laugh



LP - was a resident and certainly not capable of using the internet let alone write a review
MA - Many moons ago was the handyman
EB - no idea
CD - She was the manager when I worked there!
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,203
30,604
Currently that’s a 10 GW delta
I think we'll cope on the e-car provision of current, the time scales match nicely.

Initially at present the takeup is slow due to production limitations failing to meet demand. Once we meet the 20 year point from now when the sale of ic cars is due to be banned, e-cars will probably have reached only 50% of cars on the road.

It's at the 30 year point when the current supply demand will probably start to surge rapidly. Then the newest ic cars on the road will be ten years old and the ic fleet will start to diminish more quickly due to car decay, plus the rapidly decreasing number of fuel stations will make living with them more difficult.

Hopefully that 30 years will enable us to sufficiently increase the generating capacity to cope with homes as well as a totally e-car fleet.
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gw8izr

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Jan 1, 2020
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Hopefully that 30 years will enable us to sufficiently increase the generating capacity to cope with homes as well as a totally e-car fleet.
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By which time I won't have cars on my mind... most likely worms.. or even more likely ash
 
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flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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By which time I won't have cars on my mind... most likely worms.. or even more likely ash
Ditto, and I may well beat you to it, since I'm in my 84th year.

I bought my new Leaf in 2018, fully expecting it to be my last car. I knew back then that waiting three years would give a far larger choice of e-cars, but my time to enjoy owning one was fast running out!
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