Brexit, for once some facts.

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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Do the EU have to agree to that? I am sure I have read that they are unlikely to agree to a delay unless there is a very good reason such as a GE or another referendum. If its just to give TM more can kicking time I don't think they would agree.
Yes, but they've already given favourable indications. It's as much in their interests as ours, they also want a deal.
.
 
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Danidl

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The very last thing we want is May saying anything more (or, as so often, again). The only words we just might wish to hear are: "Sorry folk, I was wrong, I now withdraw A50 and resign."
I don't believe she can withdraw Article 50, that came about as vote, and must be voted again. The EU said using the processes of the member state. So I ask the question, who is capable of actually proposing that vite?. Ken Clarke?. It has to be a member of tge ruling party... I belueve.
 
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Woosh

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I don't believe she can withdraw Article 50, that came about as vote, and must be voted again. The EU said using the processes of the member state. So I ask the question, who is capable of actually proposing that vite?. Ken Clarke?. It has to be a member of tge ruling party... I belueve.
UK parliament can still pass a law on the 28th of March to repeal the 'Great Repeal Act', the EU will accept that.
More likely though, parliament will vote on JC's no confidence motion tomorrow. If the vote is very close, TM will have to work with JC to save her deal.
That's the best outcome.
If TM and JC can't work together, JC will have to table a motion for a second referendum.
 
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Fingers

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UK parliament can still pass a law on the 28th of March to repeal the 'Great Repeal Act', the EU will accept that.
More likely though, parliament will vote on JC's no confidence motion tomorrow. If the vote is very close, TM will have to work with JC to save her deal.
That's the best outcome.
If TM and JC can't work together, JC will have to table a motion for a second referendum.

A second referendum will take seven months if it was called tomorrow.

I just can’t see it happening. There is no way the Tories will call one and there is no way Corbyn can win an election even if it was on the back of a second referendum.

So at best the timetable would be May resigning late March as a no deal looms, she won’t call a second referendum so calls an election. That would be held say June 1st. Second referendum called that day (if by a miracle Corbyn can win) so referendum would be at the earliest Jan 1st 2020.

What would the question be?

What if the turnout was significantly lower?

What if it’s close?

What if remain win?

What if leave win?

Then another 2 years of article 50. No deal so we start again. It’s utter madness. Or remain win and the call for a third referendum is deafening with increasing civil disobedience.

We need to leave and respect the referendum. Anything else will create a mess far bigger than leaving the bloody EU. They are playing us for fools and we are biting.
 
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Wicky

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JC IMHO was reminisent of Dalek leader Davros (even baggier eyes than May's!) , from the moment of taking of his glasses, in tone delivering his motion of no confidence . He just forgot to shout "EXTERMINATE!' across at her.



or for Star Wars grogs it could be a battle of good v evil...

 
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Danidl

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A second referendum will take seven months if it was called tomorrow.

I just can’t see it happening. There is no way the Tories will call one and there is no way Corbyn can win an election even if it was on the back of a second referendum.

So at best the timetable would be May resigning late March as a no deal looms, she won’t call a second referendum so calls an election. That would be held say June 1st. Second referendum called that day (if by a miracle Corbyn can win) so referendum would be at the earliest Jan 1st 2020.

What would the question be?

What if the turnout was significantly lower?

What if it’s close?

What if remain win?

What if leave win?

Then another 2 years of article 50. No deal so we start again. It’s utter madness. Or remain win and the call for a third referendum is deafening with increasing civil disobedience.

We need to leave and respect the referendum. Anything else will create a mess far bigger than leaving the bloody EU. They are playing us for fools and we are biting.
No. Unless the letter of repealing or extending Article 50 is in the pidgeon hole of the EU by midnight on 29th March,it is game over. That could be as Woosh says a repeal of the great repeal act by 11:30 on 29th ,and couriered over by the RAF . But it does need to be a full blown event and a vote. So a date in June is to late.
 
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Danidl

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No. Unless the letter of repealing or extending Article 50 is in the pidgeon hole of the EU by midnight on 29th March,it is game over. That could be as Woosh says a repeal of the great repeal act by 11:30 on 29th ,and couriered over by the RAF . But it does need to be a full blown event and a vote. So a date in June is to late.
..and if the EU are playing you for fools, how could you blame them, you HAVE been fools.
 
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Zlatan

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Nov 26, 2016
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Just wonder if all this is planned.
Probably giving credit where none due but current situation is putting pressure on EU to offer an improved deal. (or guarantees in law) May is still safe. (assuming she wins no condidence vote, which I, m pretty sure she will)
???? Perhaps government not as stupid as we assume, but not convinced about that.
She will now put ball back in EU's court with her "plan B" and wait for them to make new offer (or perhaps old one).. Only wondering..
Looking like ref2 tho if I, m honest.
SA is wonderful. Lots of issues around security. Loocals think sea is cold. Not at side of North sea it aint. Great place. Nice wind yesterday. None today.
 
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oyster

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..and if the EU are playing you for fools, how could you blame them, you HAVE been fools.
How I wish I could disagree.

Maybe I am a determined remainer, but I have yet to hear a case for leaving which stacks up. I have repeatedly pinched myself and tried to think whether I could accept leaving. My answer is always the same, if a suitable strong case were made, I'd at least reluctantly accept leaving.
 
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Woosh

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What would the question be?
it has to be two stages: remain or leave, and if leave, which brexit: No Deal or TM's deal.
What if the turnout was significantly lower?
that won't change the result.
What if it’s close?
then it's unfinished business, back to MPs to decide.
What if remain win?
the country is still divided, another referendum will be on some party's manifesto for the next GE, then the next one etc until we vote again.
What if leave win?
then we exit the EU.
If we don't do well outside the EU, we'll have to apply to rejoin in a few years.
 
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50Hertz

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Ah, so we should scrap the equally pointless referendum vote?

Seriously, opinions change with time and information. The now much better informed public have changed their mind as poll after poll shows, the margin continuously growing and now very substantial.

Parliament cannot solve the riddle the public set them, so logically it's time to go back to the public with the options for their answer.
.
I agree, more information is now available along with a clearer understanding of the capabilities and competence of those charged with delivering Brexit. As a leave voter the first time around, I would like to see a second referendum as I think it only fair to allow people to step back now that they have more knowledge. I would support whatever result is returned.

The wording of the question would be very difficult, perhaps too difficult to be fair. Remain is easy, nothing changes. We now understand leave to mean a whole spectrum of different outcomes, how do you condense that into a single question / option without splitting the leave vote, which would be unfair to leavers.

The current Prime Minister must go. She is utterly unsuited to the role. She is secretive, unapproachable, a very bad listener, a poor communicator, lacks charisma, stubborn to the point of being an embarrassment, has a long history of serial failure and is incompetent. No progress can be made whilst ever she is involved.

From what I read on here, even if a second referendum returned a leave decision, the remain supporters would not accept the democratic decision. That is a childish outlook which can only serve to harm the U.K. We need to put aside our divisions, have a second referendum (if the question wording problem can be solved) and commit to supporting the result. Otherwise this will never go away.
 
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OxygenJames

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Jan 8, 2012
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You know what? I'm starting to think it's the 'Remainers' who are educationally challenged.

What with OldGroaner here and his inability to correctly spell the possessive form of 'its' - or Danidl insisting on adding an additional full stop after ending a sentence with a question mark - and now this:

Screen Shot 2019-01-15 at 08.01.35.png
 

Zlatan

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Nov 26, 2016
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it has to be two stages: remain or leave, and if leave, which brexit: No Deal or TM's deal.

that won't change the result.

then it's unfinished business, back to MPs to decide.

the country is still divided, another referendum will be on some party's manifesto for the next GE, then the next one etc until we vote again.

then we exit the EU.
If we don't do well outside the EU, we'll have to apply to rejoin in a few years.
Two stage ref wont happen. Way to complicated. One of worries is turnout will be low..Too low?? Then its void???
Sorry OJ... It is early...
 
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OxygenJames

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Jan 8, 2012
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The vote was 432 to 202, a 230 vote defeat.
.
William Hill were offering 3.5 odds on that (ie place £1 get £3.50 back).

I put down £100 on 200 - 229 (at 2.5). Plus had a covering bet on 150 - 199.

I never thought it would be that big!

Boll**ks.
 
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OxygenJames

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Jan 8, 2012
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Two stage ref wont happen. Way to complicated. One of worries is turnout will be low..Too low?? Then its void???
Sorry OJ... It is early...
We are truly f*****d. There is NO WAY on god's good earth May will be able to build some sort of coalition on some new deal and then get the EU to agree to it. And Parliament seems determined to prevent a 'no-deal' exit.
 
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