Brexit, for once some facts.

[anotherkiwi]

Executive summary:

The UK
- we don't believe in the EU, we want out, well a tiny (or massive depending on...) 4% majority of those that voted do anyhow. In a country with grown up politicians a 60/40 majority is "the will of the people"
- we want a deal, we want to keep all the good bits i.e. the ones that suit us and which will make us the most money
- you will give us that deal because we are England
- here is a blank cheque, please sign it to our order
- ...

The EU
- we have a great deal, it is called membership where adult states get what they want and have the opportunity to not to write the stuff they don't want into their own laws, within reason
- other than that with third countries we spend a few years negotiating and writing trade treaties, if you want to be a third country you can be, please be patient

 

[Danidl]

"That is because it was a very bad deal. Far worse than remaining in the EU "..
BY Jove I think you have got it!

Question marks and full stops notwithstanding, this is unfolding as I had predicted. There is an unreasonable forlorn hope,on these pages that the EU are going to somehow going to capitulate within the next 47 working days, go back on their word, reassemble full working groups and committees ,renege on commitments already made etc. It simply will not and cannot happen . The EU would suffer greater loss of prestige and credibility than even the crash out of the UK from the EU would entail.
The UK once had a reputation for pragmatism..it has deserted it now.
The EU is heading into election mode now, not revisiting settled business.
As I said, the ball is firmly in the UK side of the court.
The EU cannot offer the UK an extension to Article 50 . It is for the UK to request or demand it as per the ECJ ruling in December

 

[50Hertz]

"That is because it was a very bad deal. Far worse than remaining in the EU "..
BY Jove I think you have got it!

Question marks and full stops notwithstanding, this is unfolding as I had predicted. There is an unreasonable forlorn hope,on these pages that the EU are going to somehow going to capitulate within the next 47 working days, go back on their word, reassemble full working groups and committees ,renege on commitments already made etc. It simply will not and cannot happen . The EU would suffer greater loss of prestige and credibility than even the crash out of the UK from the EU would entail.
The UK once had a reputation for pragmatism..it has deserted it now.
The EU is heading into election mode now, not revisiting settled business.
As I said, the ball is firmly in the UK side of the court.
The EU cannot offer the UK an extension to Article 50 . It is for the UK to request or demand it as per the ECJ ruling in December

The only way I can see Theresa May making any progress is as follows. Germany instructing Ireland that there will be concessions on the backstop arrangement. How likely that is to happen, I don’t know, but it is the only way to deal stands any chance of succeeding.

I think article 50 is going to be cancelled, and then who knows what will happen .

 

[jonathan.agnew]

Watching the build up on TV it is fascinating that of the twenty so members of the Public interviewed , not a single one was an ardent remainer, only one even mentioned in passing another referendum, and some who claim to have voted for remain now simply want to leave and get it over with.
Hmm.
That was on the Beeb.
Sorry not really convinced by this....
Clearly the assumption is that the 48% have ceased to exist....

Here is the Brexiteers Prayer

"Yesterday upon the stair
I met a man who wasn't there.
He wasn't there again today,
I wish, I wish,
He'd go away."

Wouldn't that be convenient?

That was odd. My perhaps oversuspicious assumption was that the beeb was deliberately trying to be controversial/stirring things up, or extremely politically correct.

 

[Woosh]

It’s time for us to unite on something like a second referendum and all of us to commit to supporting the democratic outcome, whatever that may be.

parliament may end up voting for a second referendum if it runs out of any other option before the deadline.
The NI question divides the conservative party.
NI needs to stay in the EU's customs union and the UK's single market but the hard brexiters can't deliver that.

 

[jonathan.agnew]

Most people have accepted the result by now.

It’s only the true believers and deluded who still refuse to grasp the will of the people.

Of course anything that goes against your narrative is going to be wrong or some sort of conspiracy.

I wonder if you're aware of the irony of your post. The fact that your the one repeating a boring refrain/narrative ("we've won, by 2%")?

 

[jonathan.agnew]

The only way I can see Theresa May making any progress is as follows. Germany instructing Ireland that there will be concessions on the backstop arrangement. How likely that is to happen, I don’t know, but it is the only way to deal stands any chance of succeeding.

I think article 50 is going to be cancelled, and then who knows what will happen .

Yippeee...6 more months of observing may being awful and corbyn doing nothing effective.

 

[50Hertz]

Executive summary:

The UK
- we don't believe in the EU, we want out, well a tiny (or massive depending on...) 4% majority of those that voted do anyhow. In a country with grown up politicians a 60/40 majority is "the will of the people"
- we want a deal, we want to keep all the good bits i.e. the ones that suit us and which will make us the most money
- you will give us that deal because we are England
- here is a blank cheque, please sign it to our order
- ...

The EU
- we have a great deal, it is called membership where adult states get what they want and have the opportunity to not to write the stuff they don't want into their own laws, within reason
- other than that with third countries we spend a few years negotiating and writing trade treaties, if you want to be a third country you can be, please be patient

I think you may be senile.

 

[OxygenJames]

That is the problem, I think the remain camp are of a mind-set and character that they would not accept a leave vote even if it was 90% in favour of leaving. They would continue to peevishly undermine and snipe at the UK’s position.

In truth I think some sort of deal will be struck. The Fürhrer will summon her Irish puppy to The Father Land within the next few days and give him his instructions. If she has her finger on the life support machine which is keeping the Irish “cabbage” economy in a persistent vegetative state, it will focus his mind on a border solution.

Germany is the EU and Germany will provide the final solution to Brexit.

Possibly.

 

[OxygenJames]

it's a fact that TM's deal got voted down not by so many remainer MPs as by hard brexiter conservative MPs.

Too f8g right! Because her deal is not Brexit.

Let's sum up where we are
Brexit if it ever was the "Will of the people" no longer is

It is the the new punch bag of the House of Commons, entirely at the risk of the biggest bunch of clowns ever to infest the HOC

There are only four ways to resolve it, and no majority for any one
New Deal
No Deal
Referendum
Change their mind over May's deal.

This is what Brexit is.. a disaster , plain and simple

No - this is where we are right now. 'Brexit' is besides the point now. We got here one step of a time going back as far back as you want to go back. So there is where we find ourselves. Apportioning 'blame' is a mug's game - though one you love to play as you get to be God. God can spell the possessive form of 'its' so you're not God.

Where we will go from here? OK. This is how I think it will play out. Ready?

TM will win the confidence vote and then arrange meetings with 'leading parliamentarians' to find out how to move forward. Positive press releases will follow and TM will dutifully traipse off to the EU where she will get some more wooly promises about nothing much. Back in the UK they will vote on this new deal and it will fail. Back to the 'leading parliamentarians' but this time they come up with a rabbit out of the hat. Ready? A customs union that permanently embraces the whole of the UK. Which Labour can and would support. It's not Brexit but by then nobody will care. Vote will happen - Tory party Brexiters will vote against but Labour with and it will pass. Tory party will then split. May will quit. Two new leaders from the two sides of the Tory party will emerge. Corbyn will still lose the next election. Scotland will vote to leave the UK.

 

[Woosh]

. Back in the UK they will vote on this new deal and it will fail.

TM will make noises about willing to accept a customs union in the coming weeks.
That's the only move she can make to force most of the ERG members to vote for her deal and guarantee to the DUP that there won't be a border in the Irish Sea.
Her deficit will then come down to 10-20.
The absolutists will then have no other choice than backing a second referendum.

 

[OxygenJames]

Pragmatism won't get us anywhere, it has been tried and failed already, any deal will always we worse than membership
All Mp's know that.
The problem is that no one is interested in facing the real and only sensible choice
Kill Brexit

Sensible!? You really are even more dumb than I thought - much much more dumb than I thought.

You think that by stopping Brexit that will solve the problem we have? Really? Dumb dumb and dumber. Have you ANY idea how that will be received by the 17.4m people who voted leave?

It would be an unmitigated disaster of epic proportions.

 

[anotherkiwi]

Have you ANY idea how that will be received by the 17.4m people who voted leave?

Minus the dead
Minus the ones who have changed their mind
...

 

[jonathan.agnew]

I think you may be senile.

Careful all the semi-domesticated trolls are flaring up

 

[Woosh]

Minus the dead
Minus the ones who have changed their mind
...

that still leaves about 16-16.5 millions who want out.
The sensible way is to try a bit out, see how that goes in the next 2 year transition period, then decide.
I can't wait to see Farage chucked out of the EP. He is a disgrace to this great country.

 

[flecc]

William Hill were offering 3.5 odds on that (ie place £1 get £3.50 back).

I put down £100 on 200 - 229 (at 2.5). Plus had a covering bet on 150 - 199.

I never thought it would be that big!

Boll**ks.

Sorry you lost out, like you I thought a smaller margin, possibly getting under 100 votes. Never expected anything on this scale.
.

 

[Woosh]

Sky did ask all MPs how they would vote last week. 192 declared their support for TM's deal.
TM only managed to get support from 10 more MPs in the last few days.

 

[50Hertz]

Minus the dead
Minus the ones who have changed their mind
...

Plus those who have changed to leave.

 

[Danidl]

Plus those who have changed to leave.

perhaps that (or they ) goes without saying.

 

[flecc]

Remember that JRM voted against May's deal despite being apparently dead keen to get no-deal. So that actual number against no-deal has yet to be tested in a real HoC vote.

The House is overwhelmingly against No Deal.

Could be 600 to 50 against.
.