Brexit, for once some facts.

[Woosh]

TM's problem is the parliamentary arithmetic.
As turkeys won't vote for Christmas, I think most of the ERG members won't oppose TM.
JRM will command possibly about 30 'fundies' when the deal is presented to parliament in November or December, TM could be home and dry if rumour of 30 Labour MPs to oppose JRM's 30 is correct.
Libdems MPs may abstain.

 

[oldgroaner]

I think this one is a two way street, not just us wanting it. Mainly EU based manufacturers with big interests in not having any barrier, such as BMW and VW, are very alarmed by the risk of delays and tariffs.

It's why I've maintained that there's been a deal in place for a while now with just some details to be ironed out.
.

Don't you mean how to sell it as a victory for the government? And "the will of the people"?
I wonder what odds the bookies would give on our returning to EU membership on either a five or ten year timescale?
And how those odds will reduce when brexit goes belly up!

Sent from my Moto G (5) using Tapatalk

 

[Woosh]

"the will of the people"?

the will of the people is still 52/48 but this time to remain.

And how those odds will reduce when brexit goes belly up!

Perhaps the ERG knows that very well and try to sabotage brexit themselves to avoid taking the blame when things get real difficult. I can't see any other reason why they would want to vote down the budget in a couple of weeks.

 

[oldgroaner]

The ERG have really painted themselves into a corner and indeed so have all and sundry hooligans and saboteurs of the leave camp, in all their squalid subversive groups and shady sponsors.
All the promise of easy trade deals, no disadvantages, and prosperity have been dropped exposing their real agenda.

Protecting Offshore Bank accounts can now be seen as the only achievable outcome of their plotting, and was in reality the only thing they really cared about, even the future of those look decidedly dicey

The leave camp have discovered the truth of the old saying
"It's hard to remember your enthusiasm to drain the swamp,
When realization dawns you are not in a Duck pond, and you are up to your wedding tackle in alligators."

I love it when a Fascist plot falls gruesomely in ruins.
The ERG have failed Putin on an even more epic scale than the GRU

 

[Woosh]

rumour of draft deal to be agreed on Monday has pushed up the Pound all afternoon.
If the deal is approved by parliament, Sterling may gain an extra 5%..

 

[oldgroaner]

rumour of draft deal to be agreed on Monday has pushed up the Pound all afternoon.
If the deal is approved by parliament, Sterling may gain an extra 5%..

Which chancer spread the rumour to make a killing either now or later?

 

[oyster]

When I moved to Wales, I was not expecting it to be an independent country. Obviously, we have all seen the moves by the SNP over many years. We are also well aware of the interesting issues over the water. But I am now having to consider the implications of such a situation. And I really have no idea what the impact would be!

Now Brexit really is threatening to tear the UK apart


Martin Kettle

Despite warnings, Theresa May has maintained her dangerously obtuse attitude to Scotland and Northern Ireland

Theresa May cannot say she has not been warned. Brexit poses a mounting threat to the unity of the UK. Nor can she dispute the eminence of those who have been doing the warning. During the referendum campaign in 2016, John Major counselled that a British exit could “tear apart” the UK. This past summer, Gordon Brown argued Britain was at serious risk of “being permanently paralysed by seemingly irreparable divisions”. These are serious voices.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/10/brexit-threat-theresa-may-uk-scotland-northern-ireland-union

 

[Kudoscycles]

TM's problem is the parliamentary arithmetic.
As turkeys won't vote for Christmas, I think most of the ERG members won't oppose TM.
JRM will command possibly about 30 'fundies' when the deal is presented to parliament in November or December, TM could be home and dry if rumour of 30 Labour MPs to oppose JRM's 30 is correct.
Libdems MPs may abstain.

If Theresa May agrees to stay in the Customs Union,it may be her best option. Labour would vote for such a deal,TM could whip the Tories to vote for such a deal which should give 500 plus votes.
The 80 Tory bastards plus a few Labour would only be 85 against.
Also Scotland would not find it easy to have another independence referendum after Brexit.
It would tear the Tories apart but I don’t think TM has much choice....nothing else would get through parliament.
The only other option is a second referendum,but would parliament vote for one?
KudosDave

 

[oyster]

It would tear the Tories apart

It might have been better all round if the tories had been torn apart years ago. If two parties had emerged - either side of the European arguments.

In some constituencies, perhaps Labour would have won due to a split of tory votes?

As it is, and in no way suggesting violence, I can't help thinking of some individual tories being torn apart. By wolves?

 

[oldgroaner]

Headline in the Express
"
‘A crisis of democracy’ - Brexit architect HITS OUT at ‘dangerous’ second referendum call
EXCLUSIVE: DANIEL HANNAN, one of the original Brexiteers, has hit out at calls for a second referendum on the UK’s EU membership saying they would trigger “a crisis of democracy”."

Speaking of a second referendum he said: “I think there is a huge risk, it would be very clear what had happened.

“The country would have voted, more people would have voted for Brexit than have ever voted for anything, and their political elites would have overturned the result.

“That, quite apart from it being a bad outcome on Europe, would be catastrophic for the legitimacy and authority of our system.”

Lets look at that: The EU referendum was ADVISORY ONLY
Another referendum untainted by the lies, swindles false promises and dodgy funding of the last one, would be voted on by the MASSES not the ELITE

How if the earlier one was fine and dandy, and people have hopefully more of a clue of what they are voting for can that be wrong?

 

[oyster]

How if the earlier one was fine and dandy, and people have hopefully more of a clue of what they are voting for can that be wrong?

We have the right to change our minds! If nothing else.

The whole of brexit, and the years of festering euoscepticism, have caused a huge crisis. Those who did not really support Major should have quit to a party they agreed with, making one up if they needed.

 

[oldgroaner]

We have the right to change our minds! If nothing else.

The whole of brexit, and the years of festering euoscepticism, have caused a huge crisis. Those who did not really support Major should have quit to a party they agreed with, making one up if they needed.

Ironic that the party that made such a fuss over Momentum's influence in the affairs of Labour has such a malevolent cancer as the Brexiteers under it's very skin

 

[oldgroaner]

Here's a headline in the Independent for the benefit of anyone on the Forum deluded enough to imagine the Conservatives have any trace of credibility on the economy
Britain's public finances worse than Gambia, Uganda and Kenya, because of privatisation, IMF finds
Bank bailouts, rising pension liabilities and sell-off of public assets have wiped £1 trillion off UK’s net wealth, study suggests

Britain’s underlying public finances are among the worst in the world, behind the Gambia, Uganda and Kenya, a new study has concluded.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) economists found that £1 trillion had been wiped off UK public sector net wealth since the 2008 financial crisis, largely thanks to bank bailouts and increasing pension liabilities.
The IMF looked at the assets and liabilities of 31 countries and found the UK was in a worse position than every other country apart from Portugal.

Frightened of Corbyn? you should be frightened he doesn't get elected and we are left at the Mercy of these bungling burglers!

Imagine the damage they will do after Brexit invoking "It is necessary to make these cuts and sell offs to comply with the Will of the People, you voted for it!"
While emptying the Public purse into offshore bank accounts.

 

[oldtom]

Frightened of Corbyn? you should be frightened he doesn't get elected and we are left at the Mercy of these bungling burglers!
Imagine the damage they will do after Brexit invoking "It is necessary to make these cuts and sell offs to comply with the Will of the People, you voted for it!"
While emptying the Public purse into offshore bank accounts.

That's exactly the way I see it. What we have witnessed over the last decade is theft on a grand scale, the ultimate daylight robbery! None of the establishment lost a penny - it is the taxpayer who has been robbed. Just to be clear, the establishment don't pay proper taxes to the British exchequer and they don't want to remain in the EU because their ability to use tax havens for their personal wealth expansion purposes will be removed under EU rules to be introduced early next year.

Tom

 

[oldtom]

‘A crisis of democracy’ - Brexit architect HITS OUT at ‘dangerous’ second referendum call
EXCLUSIVE: DANIEL HANNAN, one of the original Brexiteers, has hit out at calls for a second referendum on the UK’s EU membership saying they would trigger “a crisis of democracy”."

The country is now on the brink of economic suicide and still this non-politician is given the oxygen of publicity by the tory propaganda organs. He gets air time when he really deserves prison time!

Tom

 

[oldtom]

It would tear the Tories apart

They are a criminal gang rather than a political party and should be designated a proscribed organisation.

Tom

 

[Fingers]

That's exactly the way I see it. What we have witnessed over the last decade is theft on a grand scale, the ultimate daylight robbery! None of the establishment lost a penny - it is the taxpayer who has been robbed. Just to be clear, the establishment don't pay proper taxes to the British exchequer and they don't want to remain in the EU because their ability to use tax havens for their personal wealth expansion purposes will be removed under EU rules to be introduced early next year.

Tom

They sold off most of the countries assets in the 80's from water to gas to the housing stock.

Simple scum.

 

[oldgroaner]

They sold off most of the countries assets in the 80's from water to gas to the housing stock.

Simple scum.

They sold off most of the countries assets in the 80's from water to gas to the housing stock.

Simple scum.

And a small matter of North Sea Oil and Gas of course

 

[Nev]

Do you folks ever wonder if your in some kind of bad dream and that you will wake up and Brexit, Trump and the Skripal poisoning were the results of too much cheese before bed and today everything is back to normal and the world hasn't really gone insane.

 

[flecc]

Do you folks ever wonder if your in some kind of bad dream

Only until I see a photo of Jacob Rees Mogg and realise it was a actually a nightmare.
.