Returning to the subject of 'Brexit', I pulled this from the 'Brexit Exposed' website earlier and it seems to me a realistic assessment of where we are with 'Brexit' at the present time:
BrexitExposed - Posts
EDITORIAL | There is no ‘deal’, Leavers.
Do you actually understand this - and what it means to you?
We are only negotiating a Withdrawal Agreement (WA) as per Article 50. No trade deal can be negotiated before we leave on March 29 next year. That is against EU rules. The ‘trade’ part is only a non-legal document about intent. Intent can change and is not binding in any shape or form. It can be discarded without consequences.
The EU is only negotiating to secure three things. The exit bill, citizens’ rights - and a guarantee that there will never be - whatever happens in any subsequent trade negotiation - a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
Once achieved, their primary job is done.
Once these three things are secured in a transition period where the UK will agree to follow all regulatory and trade rules of the EU, staying within its economic structures, including making no separate trade deals, without any political say on these, there is no reason for the EU push for any trade deals or speed up future negotiations.
We will be within its previous economic trade zone, paying our dues, under jurisdiction of its court, but we are powerless to influence anything anymore.
We’re like a servant, quietly doing what we are told, with no right to speak. Once a master, now a slave.
On the contrary, their motivation will be the opposite to work fast. The now third-country, troublesome UK is tied into all its economic structures - like we never left - but without any say in any political decisions. Dragging out negotiation on trade, keeping the status quo, will be a goal in itself.
Again, as the UK is the supplicant in the negotiations, the EU being the more powerful trading bloc and the EU having secured its Ireland backstop guarantee, it cannot lose. The UK will already have shown it cannot walk away without a trade deal and leave the regulatory and agency controls which intertwine the trade between itself and the EU.
We have lost all control. The EU has gained full control. You knew what you voted for, Leavers, right? Because you actually understood how Article 50 works?
We didn’t think so.
This is what your own masters call being an ‘EU colony’ or ‘vassal-state’. You created this by your impatience to trigger Article 50 (which you didn’t understand) and by your delusion of the power balance between the EU and the UK (which you were lied to about).
This is why Theresa May is desperate to get something concrete on trade to sign the WA - but can’t, as it is not legally binding or enforceable after March 29 2019.
Theresa May has incredulously screwed up the Brexit for you.
First she triggered Article 50 without a plan or preparation.
Then she proceeded to negotiate with a divided party and parliament which has no idea what Brexit it wants, insulting the EU and its citizens in the process with comparisons to USSR, Nazis and citizens of nowhere.
Finally she procrastinated so long that she has run out of time and must give in on red lines as deadlines loom.
The only alternative to this is to walk away without a deal. Even the Government knows that this is not tenable and a solution we can pursue (we know this through leaks and by its own desperate disposal of red lines, whenever it has to).
A No Deal will also simply not pass Parliament.
The only Brexit on offer to you, Leavers, is this ‘EU colony’ or ‘vassal-state’ option.
Either by accepting single market and customs union membership straight away so a trade deal can be quickly made, or by staying in the economic structures in the transition deal for many years, without any Brexit benefits or global trade deals and with continued economic uncertainty eating away the financial position of UK plc (read: your jobs) as we grow weaker and weaker and more supplicatory to the EU.
This is your legacy, Leavers. You won the referendum but you’re losing Brexit to your worst nightmare; a Stay, Pay and Obey outcome - because the odds were always impossible against the clueless no-plan snake oil salesmen you listened to and your folly in believing them.
Can you see it yet? We doubt it. But you can happily prove us all wrong by starting to think before it’s too late.
Tom
BrexitExposed - Posts
EDITORIAL | There is no ‘deal’, Leavers.
Do you actually understand this - and what it means to you?
We are only negotiating a Withdrawal Agreement (WA) as per Article 50. No trade deal can be negotiated before we leave on March 29 next year. That is against EU rules. The ‘trade’ part is only a non-legal document about intent. Intent can change and is not binding in any shape or form. It can be discarded without consequences.
The EU is only negotiating to secure three things. The exit bill, citizens’ rights - and a guarantee that there will never be - whatever happens in any subsequent trade negotiation - a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
Once achieved, their primary job is done.
Once these three things are secured in a transition period where the UK will agree to follow all regulatory and trade rules of the EU, staying within its economic structures, including making no separate trade deals, without any political say on these, there is no reason for the EU push for any trade deals or speed up future negotiations.
We will be within its previous economic trade zone, paying our dues, under jurisdiction of its court, but we are powerless to influence anything anymore.
We’re like a servant, quietly doing what we are told, with no right to speak. Once a master, now a slave.
On the contrary, their motivation will be the opposite to work fast. The now third-country, troublesome UK is tied into all its economic structures - like we never left - but without any say in any political decisions. Dragging out negotiation on trade, keeping the status quo, will be a goal in itself.
Again, as the UK is the supplicant in the negotiations, the EU being the more powerful trading bloc and the EU having secured its Ireland backstop guarantee, it cannot lose. The UK will already have shown it cannot walk away without a trade deal and leave the regulatory and agency controls which intertwine the trade between itself and the EU.
We have lost all control. The EU has gained full control. You knew what you voted for, Leavers, right? Because you actually understood how Article 50 works?
We didn’t think so.
This is what your own masters call being an ‘EU colony’ or ‘vassal-state’. You created this by your impatience to trigger Article 50 (which you didn’t understand) and by your delusion of the power balance between the EU and the UK (which you were lied to about).
This is why Theresa May is desperate to get something concrete on trade to sign the WA - but can’t, as it is not legally binding or enforceable after March 29 2019.
Theresa May has incredulously screwed up the Brexit for you.
First she triggered Article 50 without a plan or preparation.
Then she proceeded to negotiate with a divided party and parliament which has no idea what Brexit it wants, insulting the EU and its citizens in the process with comparisons to USSR, Nazis and citizens of nowhere.
Finally she procrastinated so long that she has run out of time and must give in on red lines as deadlines loom.
The only alternative to this is to walk away without a deal. Even the Government knows that this is not tenable and a solution we can pursue (we know this through leaks and by its own desperate disposal of red lines, whenever it has to).
A No Deal will also simply not pass Parliament.
The only Brexit on offer to you, Leavers, is this ‘EU colony’ or ‘vassal-state’ option.
Either by accepting single market and customs union membership straight away so a trade deal can be quickly made, or by staying in the economic structures in the transition deal for many years, without any Brexit benefits or global trade deals and with continued economic uncertainty eating away the financial position of UK plc (read: your jobs) as we grow weaker and weaker and more supplicatory to the EU.
This is your legacy, Leavers. You won the referendum but you’re losing Brexit to your worst nightmare; a Stay, Pay and Obey outcome - because the odds were always impossible against the clueless no-plan snake oil salesmen you listened to and your folly in believing them.
Can you see it yet? We doubt it. But you can happily prove us all wrong by starting to think before it’s too late.
Tom
