Brexit, for once some facts.

trex

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for price of bikes, the exchange rate follows very much to the UK current account. Figure for June is -32.5 billions. About as bad as it can be in the range of forecast.

I reckon 10% increase is the minimum, 12% is more likely.

 

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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Here is one good reason Boris was Boris the Bashful not Boris the Bold
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-david-cameron-wales-eu-funding-no-guarantee-warning-eu-referendum-a7109636.html
Whoops! there goes Wales if they dont stump the money!
Oh heck just found out Yorkshire is too!
http://www.richardcorbett.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/calderdale.pdf

Your mission should you choose to accept it....................
Should you be caught out lying.........................................
The Conservative Party will disavow your actions
 
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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Not sure about that Flecc, you are crediting them with more intelligence than they have..
It was mentioned when Cameron first resigned, so they do have the intelligence.

One thing's for certain, never believe the official story from politicians. For all his faults, Boris Johnson is a fighter, and the notion that he would jack it in because Michael Gove said he wasn't up to the job is ludicrous. Remember, Gove has repeatedly insisted that he, Gove, is not equipped to be a prime minister, giving Johnson a more than adequate response. The real story is hidden for the present.
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oldgroaner

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Nov 15, 2015
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It was mentioned when Cameron first resigned, so they do have the intelligence.

One thing's for certain, never believe the official story from politicians. For all his faults, Boris Johnson is a fighter, and the notion that he would jack it in because Michael Gove said he wasn't up to the job is ludicrous. Remember, Gove has repeatedly insisted that he, Gove, is not equipped to be a prime minister, giving Johnson a more than adequate response. The real story is hidden for the present.
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Someone somewhere must want to take the sticky toffee wrapper and be Prime Minister: the job is open to the first one unable to reach an exit.
Hit the red button on article 50
If Gove's wife gives him the thumbs down,
Give it to Farage, lets have a good old fashioned game of Chicken!
cue the tune "Who wants to live Forever!" by Queen.;)
 
Mar 9, 2016
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KTM
I never said anything about us not facing difficulties but we both know full well, you better than most, that German product's come here at rate of 3 to 1 ours to them. Probably similar with France.. There was always going to be some kind of reciprocal trade deal. Its now coming to light Getman exports to Uk are worth 750,000 jobs in Germany. They cant afford to tarif us. There will be a trade deal.
The negativity is doing fat more damage than Brexit.( that and the scare tactics)
Said it before but when folk like,Hargreaves, Mervyn King , Mark Carney say trade wont be affected long term I tend to believe them more than Osbourne and OG.
Both if whom had country in knackers yard by yesterday.
 
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oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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KTM
I never said anything about us not facing difficulties but we both know full well, you better than most, that German product's come here at rate of 3 to 1 ours to them. Probably similar with France.. There was always going to be some kind of reciprocal trade deal. Its now coming to light Getman exports to Uk are worth 750,000 jobs in Germany. They cant afford to tarif us. There will be a trade deal.
The negativity is doing fat more damage than Brexit.( that and the scare tactics)
Said it before but when folk like,Hargreaves, Mervyn King , Mark Carney say trade wont be affected long term I tend to believe them more than Osbourne and OG.
Both if whom had country in knackers yard by yesterday.
It is Flud, its just that the yard is down a long lane and the Tarmac gives way to potholes and mud after a bit, enjoy the ride before we hit the bumpy bit
 
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derf

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Aug 4, 2014
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The article suggests the cause of that parity( which was forecast to happen before) is our massive deficit. Which as yet brexit has had no affect on.
This is going to be case ad infinitum now. Anything negative is Brexit.

This post is rather isolated..was replying to a comment about pound/ euro. ( for some reason quote not included) Volume of posting...
I can understand some on this thread is of a demographic that do not have to be too concerned with longer term future and training and health care etc. I genuinely mean that sympathetically. in my way I'm also on escape route, so what's about to happen isn't terminally distressing. my reason for isolated post is because this thread will become about reality once it happens - in around 6 months to a year. the thread is going on about practically irrelevant hypothetical concepts. there's an underlying financial reality that will wash all that away, permanently. metaphorically I feel like a deckhand politely mentioning to the diners the ship is sinking (but that I don't mean to spoil the beef stroganoff)
 

tillson

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 29, 2008
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I think the PM job will be fought between Gove & Leadsom.

May: She backed Remain all the way and is associated with the warnings of over the economy. How can she now have had a change of mind in 7 days after months of being a remain supporter?

Crab: The fact he used to have luke warm gravel for his dinner (if he was lucky), lived on a council estate and got up before he went to bed, doesn't make him a good leader. My initial reaction to him announcing his intention was, Who?

Fox: Who? Where has he been.

Give: I wouldn't be disappointed.

My preference would be Leadsom, she's actually had a job and seems to be a fierce BREXITER.
 

BrendanJ

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 6, 2016
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It was mentioned when Cameron first resigned, so they do have the intelligence.

One thing's for certain, never believe the official story from politicians. For all his faults, Boris Johnson is a fighter, and the notion that he would jack it in because Michael Gove said he wasn't up to the job is ludicrous. Remember, Gove has repeatedly insisted that he, Gove, is not equipped to be a prime minister, giving Johnson a more than adequate response. The real story is hidden for the present.
.
It
It was mentioned when Cameron first resigned, so they do have the intelligence.

One thing's for certain, never believe the official story from politicians. For all his faults, Boris Johnson is a fighter, and the notion that he would jack it in because Michael Gove said he wasn't up to the job is ludicrous. Remember, Gove has repeatedly insisted that he, Gove, is not equipped to be a prime minister, giving Johnson a more than adequate response. The real story is hidden for the present.
.
s very simple, he's spent the last few days drumming for support, it was not there. Then Gove hi partner defecting and the prospect of a bitter fight, even if he won who would he then work with. It was the pragmatic decision but he is a fighter and he will be back perhaps in time for an Ellection when the people get to vote
 

tillson

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May 29, 2008
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I feel like a deckhand politely mentioning to the diners the ship is sinking (but that I don't mean to spoil the beef stroganoff)
I feel like a concierge on a magnificent ocean liner. Forging ahead, parting the seas with its great bow as it advances to an ever greater destiny.

Soon the EU will be washed away by the devastating wake of HMS BREXIT and we will be joined by a flotilla of other countries setting out on the exciting voyage.

Britannia Rules The Waves!
 

derf

Esteemed Pedelecer
Aug 4, 2014
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I can understand some on this thread is of a demographic that do not have to be too concerned with longer term future and training and health care etc. I genuinely mean that sympathetically. in my way I'm also on escape route, so what's about to happen isn't terminally distressing. my reason for isolated post is because this thread will become about reality once it happens - in around 6 months to a year. the thread is going on about practically irrelevant hypothetical concepts. there's an underlying financial reality that will wash all that away, permanently. metaphorically I feel like a deckhand politely mentioning to the diners the ship is sinking (but that I don't mean to spoil the beef stroganoff)
okeydokey, here's a simple article on the relationship between the account deficit and the value of the pound - and why it will devalue by at least 30% as aresult of it. I'm sure robdon will find it funny. I guess jeering is easier than acknowledging one does not understand.
 

derf

Esteemed Pedelecer
Aug 4, 2014
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okeydokey, here's a simple article on the relationship between the account deficit and the value of the pound - and why it will devalue by at least 30% as aresult of it. I'm sure robdon will find it funny. I guess jeering is easier than acknowledging one does not understand.
apologies, here it is
http://www.wsj.com/articles/brexit-vote-draws-attention-to-u-k-current-account-deficit-1466526284
also for tillson, don't let the article dishearten you, many English (yes even English men) have those bow of the titanic figurehead was it Kate Winslet? type fantasies.
 

BrendanJ

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 6, 2016
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I think the PM job will be fought between Gove & Leadsom.

May: She backed Remain all the way and is associated with the warnings of over the economy. How can she now have had a change of mind in 7 days after months of being a remain supporter?

Crab: The fact he used to have luke warm gravel for his dinner (if he was lucky), lived on a council estate and got up before he went to bed, doesn't make him a good leader. My initial reaction to him announcing his intention was, Who?

Fox: Who? Where has he been.

Give: I wouldn't be disappointed.

My preference would be Leadsom, she's actually had a job and seems to be a fierce BREXITER.
I always thought May was a euro sceptic and I think she was playing tactical with the referendum, she wanted to be on the winning side
Pretty dishonourable in my book, but she is now a brexiteers along with the best of them
Fox is being talked about, another brexiteers but I agree were was he, too low profile
Gove by his own admission is a number 2, I don't quite get why he is standing. Ah, probably the wife!!!
 
KTM
I never said anything about us not facing difficulties but we both know full well, you better than most, that German product's come here at rate of 3 to 1 ours to them. Probably similar with France.. There was always going to be some kind of reciprocal trade deal. Its now coming to light Getman exports to Uk are worth 750,000 jobs in Germany. They cant afford to tarif us. There will be a trade deal.
This is what I don't get, people keep saying they need us, so they will do a deal.. That's very optimistic and I'd suggest a touch arrogant. We are not a big market. They clearly want to sell to us, but they don't NEED us.

Its like me having a relationship with my local shop. I'm a good customer and I buy lots from them, but even if I'm 20% off their business, if I want the stuff he sells, I have to buy from him.

So lets look at high end cars as an example. The UK loves VW, Audi, BMW, Porshe etc etc. So Germany wants to sell to us.

But if we don't agree to open borders we won't be part of the trading block so their exports, (ie our imports into the UK) will be subject to a taffif. This won't effect them, we'll still want the BMW, its just going to cost us more.

This is the situation we're in with KTM, the UK will still want bikes, they are just going to cost more, because of admin, VAT hassle, tarriffs etc etc.

The people it'll effect most will be those that export from the UK into the EU.

If the EU impose tariffs on them, it'll make them non competitive with the EU companies they are competing with (which is the point of a trading block). So any company based in the UK with a high % of its business exporting to the EU will have to move to the EU to stay competitive.
 

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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I can understand some on this thread is of a demographic that do not have to be too concerned with longer term future and training and health care etc. I genuinely mean that sympathetically. in my way I'm also on escape route, so what's about to happen isn't terminally distressing. my reason for isolated post is because this thread will become about reality once it happens - in around 6 months to a year. the thread is going on about practically irrelevant hypothetical concepts. there's an underlying financial reality that will wash all that away, permanently. metaphorically I feel like a deckhand politely mentioning to the diners the ship is sinking (but that I don't mean to spoil the beef stroganoff)
Time for a last tune lads to cheer them up a bit "Nearer my God to thee"
Style of thing you mean? (laughs hysterically at this point)
 

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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This is what I don't get, people keep saying they need us, so they will do a deal.. That's very optimistic and I'd suggest a touch arrogant. We are not a big market. They clearly want to sell to us, but they don't NEED us.

Its like me having a relationship with my local shop. I'm a good customer and I buy lots from them, but even if I'm 20% off their business, if I want the stuff he sells, I have to buy from him.

So lets look at high end cars as an example. The UK loves VW, Audi, BMW, Porshe etc etc. So Germany wants to sell to us.

But if we don't agree to open borders we won't be part of the trading block so their exports, (ie our imports into the UK) will be subject to a taffif. This won't effect them, we'll still want the BMW, its just going to cost us more.

This is the situation we're in with KTM, the UK will still want bikes, they are just going to cost more, because of admin, VAT hassle, tarriffs etc etc.

The people it'll effect most will be those that export from the UK into the EU.

If the EU impose tariffs on them, it'll make them non competitive with the EU companies they are competing with (which is the point of a trading block). So any company based in the UK with a high % of its business exporting to the EU will have to move to the EU to stay competitive.
There you go, telling the truth again, consider this as a verbal warning,,,;)
No way to make friends on here.
 
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oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,461
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80
I always thought May was a euro sceptic and I think she was playing tactical with the referendum, she wanted to be on the winning side
Pretty dishonourable in my book, but she is now a brexiteers along with the best of them
Fox is being talked about, another brexiteers but I agree were was he, too low profile
Gove by his own admission is a number 2, I don't quite get why he is standing. Ah, probably the wife!!!
"Pretty dishonourable in my book, but she is now a brexiteers along with the best of them"
ER, Brendan care to rephrase that nudge,nudge, wink wink?:eek:
 
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BrendanJ

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 6, 2016
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Ok time for a refresh

I would like to hear your opinions on the role of the press, tv, Internet in our democracy going forward. I believe as usual there are threats and opportunities
For example in the referendum I think the press were very influential.
The TV debates were excellent on the whole in holding politicians to account and not letting them get away with bullshit, and for letting the public really see them for what they are
The Internet , I certainly used it a great deal to get the story that was not being told, maybe not even understood by the politicians

So the question is what are the threats we have to deal with and the opportunities to create a more accountable democracy
 

tillson

Esteemed Pedelecer
May 29, 2008
5,252
3,197
This is what I don't get, people keep saying they need us, so they will do a deal.. That's very optimistic and I'd suggest a touch arrogant. We are not a big market. They clearly want to sell to us, but they don't NEED us.

Its like me having a relationship with my local shop. I'm a good customer and I buy lots from them, but even if I'm 20% off their business, if I want the stuff he sells, I have to buy from him.

So lets look at high end cars as an example. The UK loves VW, Audi, BMW, Porshe etc etc. So Germany wants to sell to us.

But if we don't agree to open borders we won't be part of the trading block so their exports, (ie our imports into the UK) will be subject to a taffif. This won't effect them, we'll still want the BMW, its just going to cost us more.

This is the situation we're in with KTM, the UK will still want bikes, they are just going to cost more, because of admin, VAT hassle, tarriffs etc etc.

The people it'll effect most will be those that export from the UK into the EU.

If the EU impose tariffs on them, it'll make them non competitive with the EU companies they are competing with (which is the point of a trading block). So any company based in the UK with a high % of its business exporting to the EU will have to move to the EU to stay competitive.
What you say works both ways. It's of mutual benefit for the EU and UK to trade with each other. Tariffs apply in both directions, so not in anyone's interest.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,216
30,617
My preference would be Leadsom, she's actually had a job and seems to be a fierce BREXITER.
That could be a disadvantage from the point of view of uniting a split party. Liam Fox is also a Brexiter but has sensibly kept that low key so might be better for unifying. In addition Fox has senior experience, having held the Foreign, Defence and Health posts, the first two typical stepping stones to the PM job.
.
 
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