Brexit, for once some facts.

[oldgroaner]

Todays summing up on the leadership of the Brexit Faction and other parliamentary matters

The leading lights of the Brexit campaign have adjourned into the Westminster Bar with the Labour Party, (less one) where it is Nigel's round, he is there by special invitation and they don't want to miss the unique opportunity of seeing him actually pay for one.

A spokesperson said on their behalf "Sorry but it's not our fault more people put their cross in the box where they weren't intended too, so we're not doing the "hard S***t"
However a call from someones wife could drastically alter the situation.

120 odd Labour rebels have been having a whip round to buy the Liberal Democrats as a DIY property development or perhaps as a timeshare.

The rival bid from the Brexit leadership however has an ace up it's sleeve in the form Rupert Murdoch which could prove a clincher.

Jeremy Corbyn meanwhile is organising a mass meeting of the PLP in the back seat of a London Taxi.

 

[trex]

So the question is what are the threats we have to deal with and the opportunities to create a more accountable democracy

the threat is the rise of nationalism and fascism. The opportunity is the potential of better trade deals with the 57 countries outside the EU that we currently trade with under EU rules.

 

[oldgroaner]

I feel like a concierge on a magnificent ocean liner. Forging ahead, parting the seas with its great bow as it advances to an ever greater destiny.

Soon the EU will be washed away by the devastating wake of HMS BREXIT and we will be joined by a flotilla of other countries setting out on the exciting voyage.

Britannia Rules The Waves!

Captain Smith I presume?
You are a card tillson!
(But I like you)
Here's a tip.
listen to Iceberg warnings,
reduce speed to 10 knots
and keep the waterproof doors closed
Have the crew grease the lifeboat davits.

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

What you say works both ways. It's of mutual benefit for the EU and UK to trade with each other. Tariffs apply in both directions, so not in anyone's interest.

Trade does work both ways, but its only equal if both parties bring equal values to the table. Its not of mutual benefit to the EU to trade with us, unless we give its people access to our economy.

Trade wise what do you think we bring to the table? We have nothing in the UK that they can't do in EU, in fact if they put obstacles in the way of trade they actually stand to benefit because big business and the banks will move to EU.

So I'm afraid you are misguided if you think the UK and EU are likely to have a mutually beneficial relationship, they will only give us access to their trade agreement if we give their people access to our labour market. That's the only thing we bring to the table.

 

[tillson]

Captain Smith I presume?.

No, Pugwash.

 

[oldgroaner]

No, Pugwash.

excellent tillson, excellent!

 

[BrendanJ]

Trade does work both ways, but its only equal if both parties bring equal values to the table. Its not of mutual benefit to the EU to trade with us, unless we give its people access to our economy.

Trade wise what do you think we bring to the table? We have nothing in the UK that they can't do in EU, in fact if they put obstacles in the way of trade they actually stand to benefit because big business and the banks will move to EU.

So I'm afraid you are misguided if you think the UK and EU are likely to have a mutually beneficial relationship, they will only give us access to their trade agreement if we give their people access to our labour market. That's the only thing we bring to the table.

You are missing one crucial bit. The EU project is severely damaged and under threat, they need a trade war with the U.K. Like a hole in the head and as I previously posted I think what we were asking for will increasingly be what at least some of the other countries will want too
So for example who will be the first to drop out of the Euro,? Italy?, Greece? Portugal? Or even Poland are having second thoughts about joining it
Who's election will most focus minds, France, Germany, Italy, Holland ( Any bets against any more referendums)
How about the migrant crisis, it hasn't gone away you know, and turkey are still playing hardball, and shengan zone under threat
Don't look at it in solely Brexit terms, it's bigger than that and all in the 2 years timeframe, so be ready for surprises and allegiances and movement of positions

 

[BrendanJ]

H

the threat is the rise of nationalism and fascism. The opportunity is the potential of better trade deals with the 57 countries outside the EU that we currently trade with under EU rules.

Hi Trex
Apologies if I was not clear, I meant specifically to do with press, tv and internet

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

You are missing one crucial bit. The EU project is severely damaged and under threat, they need a trade war with the U.K. Like a hole in the head and as I previously posted I think what we were asking for will increasingly be what at least some of the other countries will want too
So for example who will be the first to drop out of the Euro,? Italy?, Greece? Portugal? Or even Poland are having second thoughts about joining it
Who's election will most focus minds, France, Germany, Italy, Holland ( Any bets against any more referendums)
How about the migrant crisis, it hasn't gone away you know, and turkey are still playing hardball, and shengan zone under threat
Don't look at it in solely Brexit terms, it's bigger than that and all in the 2 years timeframe, so be ready for surprises and allegiances and movement of positions

Fundamentally, it won;t be a trade war.... it'll be a - you wanna buy our stuff and trade with us, cool. You have to have open borders.

If you don't want open borders you can still trade with us, but we'll put tarrifs in place.

That's not a trade war

The rest is a bit too conspiracy theory to match my knowledge of working and living within the EU. All I think you'll find is that the EU will make a clear example of us to show that the grass is not greener on the outside to ensure that others don't make the mistake we have.

The migrant crisis is a world wide one, that won't go away if we leave the EU.

 

[BrendanJ]

Fundamentally, it won;t be a trade war.... it'll be a - you wanna buy our stuff and trade with us, cool. You have to have open borders.

If you don't want open borders you can still trade with us, but we'll put tarrifs in place.

That's not a trade war

The rest is a bit too conspiracy theory to match my knowledge of working and living within the EU. All I think you'll find is that the EU will make a clear example of us to show that the grass is not greener on the outside to ensure that others don't make the mistake we have.

The migrant crisis is a world wide one, that won't go away if we leave the EU.

Tariffs cuts both ways, and especially Germany sells a lot of cars to us and produces a lot of cars in the uk for export to europe
I think you are underestimating our bargaining position and overestimating there's, which is the classic negotiating error
Think about from there point of view, what do they want and need, what are their weak points. These are our strengths
But to do that objectively you have to get away from thinking we made a big mistake and approach it with open mind, fresh
Easier for me because I believe in Brexit, which you don't I appreciate

 

[oldgroaner]

You are missing one crucial bit. The EU project is severely damaged and under threat, they need a trade war with the U.K. Like a hole in the head and as I previously posted I think what we were asking for will increasingly be what at least some of the other countries will want too
So for example who will be the first to drop out of the Euro,? Italy?, Greece? Portugal? Or even Poland are having second thoughts about joining it
Who's election will most focus minds, France, Germany, Italy, Holland ( Any bets against any more referendums)
How about the migrant crisis, it hasn't gone away you know, and turkey are still playing hardball, and shengan zone under threat
Don't look at it in solely Brexit terms, it's bigger than that and all in the 2 years timeframe, so be ready for surprises and allegiances and movement of positions

Is it really? and the source of all this information is?
That's right the very people who have been lying to us for a generation.
Has that not occurred to you? that they are in fact magnifying the dissent (which is of course there to some degree) to the extent that it has no relationship to the truth?
And even if it is true, it doesn't help us one bit, in fact it makes it imperative for them to make an example of us by being harsh.

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

Tariffs cuts both ways, and especially Germany sells a lot of cars to us and produces a lot of cars in the uk for export to europe
I think you are underestimating our bargaining position and overestimating there's, which is the classic negotiating error
Think about from there point of view, what do they want and need, what are their weak points. These are our strengths
But to do that objectively you have to get away from thinking we made a big mistake and approach it with open mind, fresh
Easier for me because I believe in Brexit, which you don't I appreciate

Ok, but your argument falls flat if the EU puts a tarfif in place so all the car companies based in the UK, move to Europe where they can sell to a bigger market tariff free, and also benefit from the EU trade agreements that exist, when the UK currently has none, and no one to even negotiate them.... or had you not thought of that?

EU wins both ways then doesn't it... still sells to us, steals all our industry and doesn't need to import anything.

Or can you see another way of this panning out?

 

[BrendanJ]

The rest is a bit too conspiracy theory to match my knowledge of working and living within the EU. All I think you'll find is that the EU will make a clear example of us to show that the grass is not greener on the outside to ensure that others don't make the mistake we have.

Conspiracy theory is a wrong description. It is the politics and circumstances that underpin the whole discussions, you cannot ignore it
Change is on the way for Europe, partly prompted by the Brexit vote. This can be beneficial to the whole of Europe with a little imagination

 

[BrendanJ]

Is it really? and the source of all this information is?
That's right the very people who have been lying to us for a generation.
Has that not occurred to you? that they are in fact magnifying the dissent (which is of course there to some degree) to the extent that it has no relationship to the truth?
And even if it is true, it doesn't help us one bit, in fact it makes it imperative for them to make an example of us by being harsh.

Sorry OG you mistake my "source" I am not quoting someone else's story,s
Like you I have read widely as I can listened to as many people as I can and also based on my personal direct experience in my working life.
The views expressed are my own, from my logic, reasoning and experience
Not facts, as you would like to have I appreciate, so you can accept them or discard them which is exactly what I do.

 

[BrendanJ]

Ok, but your argument falls flat if the EU puts a tarfif in place so all the car companies based in the UK, move to Europe where they can sell to a bigger market tariff free, and also benefit from the EU trade agreements that exist, when the UK currently has none, and no one to even negotiate them.... or had you not thought of that?

EU wins both ways then doesn't it... still sells to us, steals all our industry and doesn't need to import anything.

Or can you see another way of this panning out?

You have a point, but that is the nature of the Global market nowadays and frankly tariffs are only one consideration when deciding on locations to produce, not taken lightly. U.K. Is still a good place to do business
And also remember ex rates we talked about earlier, this will wipe out any export tariffs, but not the incoming ones
It is an incredibly complex mix finally and my conclusion is we have every chance to succeed, but I would say that wouldn't I other wise how could I vote for brexit

 

[oldgroaner]

Sorry OG you mistake my "source" I am not quoting someone else's story,s
Like you I have read widely as I can listened to as many people as I can and also based on my personal direct experience in my working life.
The views expressed are my own, from my logic, reasoning and experience
Not facts, as you would like to have I appreciate, so you can accept them or discard them which is exactly what I do.

Well said! but an odd fact here or there comes highly recommended, you are exposed to information just as the rest of us are that is unlikely to be true.
That the EU is in crisis if true doesn't help our case, it simply makes it worse.
if there is a rot setting in being hard on us makes a great example to dissenters doesn't it?

 

[BrendanJ]

Well said! but an odd fact here or there comes highly recommended, you are exposed to information just as the rest of us are that is unlikely to be true.
That the EU is in crisis if true doesn't help our case, it simply makes it worse.
if there is a rot setting in being hard on us makes a great example to dissenters doesn't it?

Yes that is a possibility, but many commentators have countered that by saying this would be very damaging for them too, akin to cutting off your noze to spite your face. Still they might be stupid enough, or they might wake mup from their European dreams and take a pragmatic view
I would add however I would never expect that of the commission unelected as they are
But the country leaders have electorates to satisfy, like us

 

[oldgroaner]

Yes that is a possibility, but many commentators have countered that by saying this would be very damaging for them too, akin to cutting off your noze to spite your face. Still they might be stupid enough, or they might wake mup from their European dreams and take a pragmatic view
I would add however I would never expect that of the commission unelected as they are
But the country leaders have electorates to satisfy, like us

If a cruiser attacks a battleship, which will be the likely winner? that is a good comparison of our, and their situation.

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

You have a point, but that is the nature of the Global market nowadays and frankly tariffs are only one consideration when deciding on locations to produce, not taken lightly. U.K. Is still a good place to do business
And also remember ex rates we talked about earlier, this will wipe out any export tariffs, but not the incoming ones
It is an incredibly complex mix finally and my conclusion is we have every chance to succeed, but I would say that wouldn't I other wise how could I vote for brexit

we're not going to be in a good place, if tarrif's are put in place, at the same time as the £ declines in value because we do actually leave though are we......

because our exports will be harder to export because we'll be outside every trade agreement, and our imports will go up because of all the above discussed.

So we'll be in a situation where we've got less money because the economy is in recession (pretty much universally agreed by all camps) and our imports are more expensive, and our exports are less competitive.

I'm struggling to find a positive for anyone??

 

[BrendanJ]

If a cruiser attacks a battleship, which will be the likely winner? that is a good comparison of our, and their situation.

Presumably you know more about warships than me, but may I dare to say it is not just about the hardware!