Brexit, for once some facts.

oldgroaner

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Presumably you know more about warships than me, but may I dare to say it is not just about the hardware!
lets out it this way, there is no recorded historical case of a cruiser defeating a battleship, the cruiser has absolutely no chance of victory
 

oldgroaner

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Nov 15, 2015
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we're not going to be in a good place, if tarrif's are put in place, at the same time as the £ declines in value because we do actually leave though are we......

because our exports will be harder to export because we'll be outside every trade agreement, and our imports will go up because of all the above discussed.

So we'll be in a situation where we've got less money because the economy is in recession (pretty much universally agreed by all camps) and our imports are more expensive, and our exports are less competitive.

I'm struggling to find a positive for anyone??
Farage can no longer claim expenses perhaps ? (hopefully)
 

tillson

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May 29, 2008
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Ok, but your argument falls flat if the EU puts a tarfif in place so all the car companies based in the UK, move to Europe where they can sell to a bigger market tariff free, and also benefit from the EU trade agreements that exist, when the UK currently has none, and no one to even negotiate them.... or had you not thought of that?

EU wins both ways then doesn't it... still sells to us, steals all our industry and doesn't need to import anything.

Or can you see another way of this panning out?
They won't just move an entire car plant. They have hundreds of millions tied up in them, plus the cost of retraining a workforce, building a new factory and potentially a loss of sales. That course of action will cost thousands of EU jobs as well as hundreds of millions of Euros, for what result exactly? An act of spite? I don't think so.
 

BrendanJ

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May 6, 2016
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we're not going to be in a good place, if tarrif's are put in place, at the same time as the £ declines in value because we do actually leave though are we......

because our exports will be harder to export because we'll be outside every trade agreement, and our imports will go up because of all the above discussed.

So we'll be in a situation where we've got less money because the economy is in recession (pretty much universally agreed by all camps) and our imports are more expensive, and our exports are less competitive.

I'm struggling to find a positive for anyone??
Because at the moment you are seeing only from a negative perspective,
For example take ex rates, what is the best ex rate for the uk? You will not get any answers or facts on that from even the best economists. It depends?
At the moment on balance almost the whole world wants lower ex rates, higher interest rates, more inflation. Confusing isn't it?
 

BrendanJ

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lets out it this way, there is no recorded historical case of a cruiser defeating a battleship, the cruiser has absolutely no chance of victory
Unless the battleship is holed below the water line before you get there, and was distracted by something else and did not see you coming. I jest:cool:
 
They won't just move an entire car plant. They have hundreds of millions tied up in them, plus the cost of retraining a workforce, building a new factory and potentially a loss of sales. That course of action will cost thousands of EU jobs as well as hundreds of millions of Euros, for what result exactly? An act of spite? I don't think so.
How many cars do you think Nissan build in the UK? How many of those do you think are for the UK market? So how much money do you think they could save in export costs if a tarrif is introduced? The EU will want that plan back in the EU, and the jobs will follow it. I love your optimism, but its not just an act of spite, its business and politics. It'll also show other nations that they shouldn't vote leave. The EU has nothing to loose by making us suffer, does it?
 
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trex

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May 15, 2011
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I'm struggling to find a positive for anyone??
Yes, there is, but not for people who voted out.
There is already a signal that article 50 will be triggered by the end of the year, the pound will remain weak for two more years. A lot of foreign investors were holding off purchasing properties in London. They now have two and a half years to invest in London.
If you own property in Eurozone and can borrow against it to buy into London, I reckon you'll do well.
BTW, problems with the euro will be over by the time brexit is done. Make you wonder which currency is the safest in the world beside the Japanese Yen.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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One thing's for certain, never believe the official story from politicians. - - - - - - The real story is hidden for the present.
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And already a new and relevant story has emerged, casting new light. The decision on south-eastern airport expansion has been put of until at least October, obviously for the new party leader.

The Airports Commission strongly recommended a third runway at Heathrow and the government have always favoured that choice. But Boris Johnson is vehemently opposed to that, having proposed and backed his own crackpot scheme for a new Thames estuary airport to replace Heathrow. He's made this an "over my dead body" issue.

Clearly Johnson's appointment as PM would scupper the recommended solution and annoy most of the government and all of the commercial interests. Easily enough for the knife to be stuck in to Johnson. I think it very likely now that Heathrow will get its third runway.
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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They won't just move an entire car plant. They have hundreds of millions tied up in them, plus the cost of retraining a workforce, building a new factory and potentially a loss of sales. That course of action will cost thousands of EU jobs as well as hundreds of millions of Euros, for what result exactly? An act of spite? I don't think so.
Remember, it's not just a tariff issue, there's the attraction of far lower wages in Eastern Europe and Spain where the car companies also produce for the EU.

Many have already done that and I can well imagine Nissan et al following suit since it's ultimately very profitable. Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary have the factories as proof. Ford and Vauxhall have also moved out most or all of their car production. Indeed, Ford have set up back-door ways of exporting car and van making jobs. There's no loss of sales involved from moving since the new factory is built and set up while the old one still runs.

And how could it cost EU jobs when it would create more of them in those EU countries? The only loss of jobs would be in out-of-the-EU Britain.
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BrendanJ

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Yes, there is, but not for people who voted out.
There is already a signal that article 50 will be triggered by the end of the year, the pound will remain weak for two more years. A lot of foreign investors were holding off purchasing properties in London. They now have two and a half years to invest in London.
If you own property in Eurozone and can borrow against it to buy into London, I reckon you'll do well.
BTW, problems with the euro will be over by the time brexit is done. Make you wonder which currency is the safest in the world beside the Japanese Yen.
Tell that to the japanese, many big multi national companies that sell over the world in local currencies. Now due to the relatively high yen their consolidated results in yen have taken a massive hit
There stock market will be hit accordingly. They need a weaker currency not stronger, and they are already in deflation with below zero interest rates
Big problems and no sign of easing
Like I say the obvious financial measures quoted are not always straight forward
 

oldgroaner

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Nov 15, 2015
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For your amusement; a rewritten Hitler hears the referendum result
Now Boris Johnson hears the referendum result
 
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BrendanJ

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Remember, it's not just a tariff issue, there's the attraction of far lower wages in Eastern Europe and Spain where the car companies also produce for the EU.

Many have already done that and I can well imagine Nissan et al following suit since it's ultimately very profitable. Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary have the factories as proof. Ford and Vauxhall have also moved out most or all of their car production. Indeed, Ford have set up back-door ways of exporting car and van making jobs. There's no loss of sales involved from moving since the new factory is built and set up while the old one still runs.

And how could it cost EU jobs when it would create more of them in those EU countries? The only loss of jobs would be in out-of-the-EU Britain.
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Eastern Europe is old news as far as manufacturing is concerned, most that went in are already out and in China, Vietnam Philippines, one strong exception is car manufacturing which is very bulky and expensive to ship across the world, so they talk about "near shore" but even Eastern Europe is now inflating very fast especially salaries like 10% per year (by law) as countries want to grow into euro convergence
No big bucks to be made there anymore, the strategies move fast and always changing but most big manufacturers no that and spread themselves and position them selves strategically, to future proof future changes
Also do you know that the UK outside of Eastern Europe is one of the lowest wage cost areas of Europe, no wonder they like UK to do business and on top of that less regulation, Eastern Europe is an absolute nightmare
 

oldgroaner

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Eastern Europe is old news as far as manufacturing is concerned, most that went in are already out and in China, Vietnam Philippines, one strong exception is car manufacturing which is very bulky and expensive to ship across the world, so they talk about "near shore" but even Eastern Europe is now inflating very fast especially salaries like 10% per year (by law) as countries want to grow into euro convergence
No big bucks to be made there anymore, the strategies move fast and always changing but most big manufacturers no that and spread themselves and position them selves strategically, to future proof future changes
Also do you know that the UK outside of Eastern Europe is one of the lowest wage cost areas of Europe, no wonder they like UK to do business and on top of that less regulation, Eastern Europe is an absolute nightmare
Brendan the fact that cannot be escaped is they came here to use it as gateway to the EU, and for no other reason the rest is nonsense, merely wishful thinking.
Unfortunately you are grasping at straws.
 

BrendanJ

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Brendan the fact that cannot be escaped is they came here to use it as gateway to the EU, and for no other reason the rest is nonsense, merely wishful thinking.
Unfortunately you are grasping at straws.
Clearly you new about battleships, and believe me I know what I am talking about! I don't doubt the Uk was a fantastic gateway, but also accept it hasn't just become a crap one, that is lack of knowledge and experience and listening to much to the lieing press as you would say
 

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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Clearly you new about battleships, and believe me I know what I am talking about! I don't doubt the Uk was a fantastic gateway, but also accept it hasn't just become a crap one, that is lack of knowledge and experience and listening to much to the lieing press as you would say
Brendan please explain just why there is any reason for foreign manufacturers who came here for EU access should stay in a country that is going downhill and no longer has that free access?
It is so obvious and you won't never mind can't see it.
Without that access we are no better off than any other offshore little island.
Generous bribes in the way of business advantages added to the attraction of gateway access brought them here.
These are gone, they would be simply lousy business people if the didn't move to be inside the EU
 

gray198

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Apr 4, 2012
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How many cars do you think Nissan build in the UK? How many of those do you think are for the UK market? So how much money do you think they could save in export costs if a tarrif is introduced? The EU will want that plan back in the EU, and the jobs will follow it. I love your optimism, but its not just an act of spite, its business and politics. It'll also show other nations that they shouldn't vote leave. The EU has nothing to loose by making us suffer, does it?
Various people have referred to Europe as ''our friends''. Seem more like enemies to me from some assumptions on here
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,152
30,567
Eastern Europe is old news as far as manufacturing is concerned, most that went in are already out and in China, Vietnam Philippines, one strong exception is car manufacturing which is very bulky and expensive to ship across the world, so they talk about "near shore" but even Eastern Europe is now inflating very fast especially salaries like 10% per year (by law) as countries want to grow into euro convergence
No big bucks to be made there anymore, the strategies move fast and always changing but most big manufacturers no that and spread themselves and position them selves strategically, to future proof future changes
Also do you know that the UK outside of Eastern Europe is one of the lowest wage cost areas of Europe, no wonder they like UK to do business and on top of that less regulation, Eastern Europe is an absolute nightmare
But it's vehicle manufacturing I'm speaking of, and that is still being shifted into eastern Europe, Germany and even Spain at times, often in ways that are not even apparent.

Nissan came here for two reasons, first because we were in the EU, second because of a huge government subsidy to do so. The subsidies are no longer available of course, so our EU membership could be critical in some circumstances.
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