Brexit, for once some facts.

[tillson]

Unfortunately the weather isn't very favourable for Labour today, they always do best on fine polling days. The Tory vote is usually more resilient and reliable in turning out.
.

That's interesting. No insult meant, but is this because a sizeable proportion of Labour's voters are lazy, idle 1st, 2nd, 3rd and now 4th generation professional benefit claimants, who expect the state to provide for them and for who the extra effort of turning out in the rain is too much?

I've not voted yet because I'm undecided. I'm either going to put my polling card in the shredder or vote Lib Dem. it's a very close call.

 

[Mal69]

I also came to the same conclusion as yourself & have voted Labour (even though I had joined the LibDems last year). I have let our local LibDem candidate know that I would not be voting for him with the reasons why. I have to say that he was very gracious about by change of allegiance. What I find genuinely hard to understand in the support for the Torys amongst genuine intellligent and caring people. After all, they have
1. Lied about funding to the NHS & have created the most God-Awful crisis in both Social Care & the NHS 2. Are committed to spending billions on a weapon system that can never be used without the destruction of human kind 3. Continue to offer total support to Donald Trump & apparently can see no wrong in him 4. Are intent on dismantling environmental & human rights legislation 5. Have a leader who avoids interviews like the plague apart from when it is entirely scripted 6. Have demonised the vulernable in society 7. Have created an economy that genuinely favours the few over the many....etc etc.
And yet people still want to vote for them. Unlike yourself OG, I think that whatever they do or say doesn't really matter & even if the Brexit negotiations result in a hard Brexit they will still be supported. I just hope that I'm proved wrong but am not optimistic about the outcome from today.

The thing is, the newspapers lie about all this and the people who vote Tory are not reading the Daily Mirror, hence they think everything is rosy and thus continue to vote Tory.

You also get the type of person that has bought the Tory and Sun newspaper rubbish about people living off the state, see post above, let's attack disabled people, pensioners are next, its typical Tory tactics, demonise people, say it enough and set the community against one another, divide and conquer is what the Tories are good at.

 

[tillson]

The thing is, the newspapers lie about all this and the people who vote Tory are not reading the Daily Mirror, hence they think everything is rosy and thus continue to vote Tory.

You also get the type of person that has bought the Tory and Sun newspaper rubbish about people living off the state, see post above, let's attack disabled people, pensioners are next, its typical Tory tactics, demonise people, say it enough and set the community against one another, divide and conquer is what the Tories are good at.

I guess the Sun remark was intended for me? It's ok, I forgive you.

I'm not a fan of the Sun, Daily Mail or Theresa May and the Tory party. I would actually prefer to see Corbyn inside number 10 because I feel that he is genuine. But I can't ever entertain the idea of voting Labour because of all the fakes in that party. Fake people who will support whatever policy gives them the greatest chance of personal financial advantage and power. I don't think this is exclusive a Labour issue either, it applies across all parties.

I think this country has a sizeable number of people who claim benefits to which they are not entitled. I know a benefits fraud investigator and she / her department is completely overwhelmed with work. People labouring for builders whilst claiming disability allowances, working and claiming, claiming for dead relatives, the list goes on and it's not a small issue. Then there are those who simply don't want to work.

I would say that the people listed above are likely to vote Labour, if they vote at all. Why would they vote Tory?

Returning to the rain & being put off from voting. Again, I would say that it is more likely that these people are unlikely to make the extra effort to turn out to vote in inclement weather.

 

[homemoz]

I guess the Sun remark was intended for me? It's ok, I forgive you.

I'm not a fan of the Sun, Daily Mail or Theresa May and the Tory party. I would actually prefer to see Corbyn inside number 10 because I feel that he is genuine. But I can't ever entertain the idea of voting Labour because of all the fakes in that party. Fake people who will support whatever policy gives them the greatest chance of personal financial advantage and power. I don't think this is exclusive a Labour issue either, it applies across all parties.

I think this country has a sizeable number of people who claim benefits to which they are not entitled. I know a benefits fraud investigator and she / her department is completely overwhelmed with work. People labouring for builders whilst claiming disability allowances, working and claiming, claiming for dead relatives, the list goes on and it's not a small issue. Then there are those who simply don't want to work.

I would say that the people listed above are likely to vote Labour, if they vote at all. Why would they vote Tory?

Returning to the rain & being put off from voting. Again, I would say that it is more likely that these people are unlikely to make the extra effort to turn out to vote in inclement weather.

Having also worked with many people who recieve benefits for disability in the context of the NHS, I would say that the vast majority do not try & abuse their benefits. In fact most are actually ashamed to be dependent on benefits and the fact that they are unable to fulfill their roles as provider, carer, husband or wife in the way they feel that they should. I do not dispute that some people do abuse the benefit system, however there are also many people out there who are avoiding paying tax which I would class as a moral equivalent. Two wrongs do not make a right...but far greater exposure has been given to benefit fraud than to the common discretions of minor ax avoidance. With regard to Labour voters being lazy...is there any evidence for this? Perhaps there may be other reasons for a lower turnout i.e. more resigned/less motivated "Well what does my vote count for anyway?" etc.

 

[Zlatan]

There are lots of socialists walking up and down front in Benidorm, perhaps JC could have reached a deal with OLeary to ferry them home for today's vote. Living on benefits in Benidorm makes getting home too expensive. ( This post is only half joking, you really can see the social.divide in choice of places ex pats chose to settle. The highest concern in most I spoke with....drop in value of pound affecting their pensions/ benefits..
Overheard one chap moaning that Ryanair couldn't carry his two seater mobility scooter...his had an ashtray and oxygen bottle fitted..( seriously)
Strange old world..

 

[oldtom]

I just read this elsewhere and simplistic though it may be, it is entirely logical unless one is so brainwashed that truth no longer has any meaning.

Last chance to vote in a government that works for the vast majority and not the political wing of the aristocracy and landed gentry. Five more years of Trésemé or vote in a man of the people who has conducted this campaign with dignity and pride and who brings forth some great ideas in his manifesto. But the media would have you believe that he's a liability....unlike the Tory poster witch.

Say Jeremy Corbyn had been the Home Secretary for six years, during which time he slashed some 20,000 police jobs taking us back to 1970s levels of per capita policing.

Let's say he also slashed the UK Border Agency budget so that over a million people per month were coming and going through UK airports without being properly checked.

Let's say by virtue of an extremely self-serving EU referendum non-campaign he managed to get into 10 Downing Street, where he kept up his agenda of cutting the UK security services and border agency.

Then there's a home-grown terrorist attack by a known Islamist fanatic in a city where Corbyn had cut the police budget by £157 million.

Let's say Jeremy Corbyn "lost" files on an internal pedophile ring.

Let's say he wanted to take the homes from the elderly.

Let's say he cut 30% of your disabled benefit.
Let's say he signed an arms deal with the (ISIS-funding) Saudis worth millions.

Let's say he wanted to take away your child's free school meal.

Let's say he forced NHS staff to use food banks.

Let's say he made so many cuts to the NHS that people are suffering waiting for ambulances and A&E doctors.

Let's say he went against doctors, nurses, teachers, fire fighters, the armed forces...

Let's say he took away funding for University for upcoming doctors and nurses.

Let's say after all these cuts there's still a deficit and he'd missed every target he'd set himself for reducing it.

What would you have to say about Jeremy Corbyn under these circumstances?

- And why are they not saying those things about Theresa May and the Tories right now?
Surely, there is only one choice when you have this evidence in front of you?

Tom

 

[cosybike]

The number of people committing benefit fraud is really tiny though. The benefits fraud department is probably tiny, as in the grand scheme of things the numbers are not that great especially if you compare it to vodaphones tax bill for example. Why are we not going after more tax at the other end? How many yacht's does 5% of the population really need?

Sent from my Lenovo YT3-850F using Tapatalk

 

[flecc]

Returning to the rain & being put off from voting. Again, I would say that it is more likely that these people are unlikely to make the extra effort to turn out to vote in inclement weather.

The stats are long established, poor weather suppresses the labour turnout to clearly measurable degrees.

It's such a complex behavioural area related to polling day circumstances such as one's employment, travel etc., that I wouldn't presume to judge why.
.

 

[Zlatan]

Well it rains pretty constantly where I live and Tories are about as likely to get in as screaming lord such....

 

[flecc]

Well I've done my bit and voted, but first I drove to the supermarket for some shopping.

On the way and approaching the school based polling station I saw a man waiting to cross the road to vote, so I stopped, although there was no pedestrian crossing there, and waved him over with a smile.

A bit further along at the other end of the school there was a second man waiting to cross, so I stopped and did the same.

Maybe if one or both were at all undecided, my demonstration of caring for others in the true socialist tradition might just have swung their decision.

Mine is after all a finely balanced constituency with the Tories only clinging on by 165 votes last time.
.

 

[Zlatan]

Well I've done my bit and voted, but first I drove to the supermarket for some shopping.

On the way and approaching the school based polling station I saw a man waiting to cross the road to vote, so I stopped, although there was no pedestrian crossing there, and waved him over with a smile.

A bit further along at the other end of the school there was a second man waiting to cross, so I stopped and did the same.

Maybe if one or both were at all undecided, my demonstration of caring for others in the true socialist tradition might just have swung their decision.

Mine is after all a finely balanced constituency with the Tories only clinging on by 165 votes last time.
.

Nice one Flecc, some on here would have run both over on chance one was "tory scum". ( Not my word)
If it stops raining I,ll go and vote...

 

[homemoz]

If it stops raining I,ll go and vote...

First thing to make me laugh today...genuinely!
(No comments about my "sad" life please).

 

[cosybike]

Benefit fraud is tiny compared to entirely legal tax avoidance though. The office dealing with it proportionaly small too. Maybe too small. Under funded? Maybe we should vote to help lift people out of that situation in the first place? Why does everyone need to work anyway? I'm sure you will be subsidising me right now even though I claim no benefit s but pay very little tax, sometimes none. But in the future when you are old and have to give up electric bike... I'll see you right.

Sent from my Lenovo YT3-850F using Tapatalk

 

[flecc]

Benefit fraud is tiny compared to entirely legal tax avoidance though.

But there's nothing wrong with tax avoidance. Anthony Barber when he was Chancellor of the Exchequer very long ago clarified the situation when he said this in the House:

"Tax evasion is illegal, tax avoidance is every citizen's duty".
.

 

[Woosh]

while you wait for the result:

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10154841158040787

 

[oldtom]

The clueless bitch has made history:





Tom

 

[homemoz]

Unfortunately the weather isn't very favourable for Labour today, they always do best on fine polling days. The Tory vote is usually more resilient and reliable in turning out.
.

From The Independent (so it must be right!)

"But there is no evidence that the weather has any effect in Sweden, where a 2014 study found “the weather seems to have a negligible, if any, effect on voter turnout”.

Or in Britain, where John Curtice, Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, says: “We’ve had one or two general elections when it’s been raining in some parts of the country and not in another and there has been no significant variation in turnout.”

 

[Woosh]

Latest poll: Tories lead Labour by 7%

7% seems fair.

The Pound rose first thing this morning, the City was betting on TM to win, now has dropped back a fair bit. Maybe that exit poll is favouring Labour.

I think this time the turn out will be low because of constant coverage of brexit and election, the pensioners will be more likely to vote for Labour because of the threat to their winter fuel payment by TM, the students will want to go out to vote because of tuition fee.

 

[flecc]

From The Independent (so it must be right!)

"But there is no evidence that the weather has any effect in Sweden, where a 2014 study found “the weather seems to have a negligible, if any, effect on voter turnout”.

Or in Britain, where John Curtice, Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, says: “We’ve had one or two general elections when it’s been raining in some parts of the country and not in another and there has been no significant variation in turnout.”

I've seen those comments previously, and others trying to deny any connection. Obviously Sweden doesn't apply, and nor does Curtice's rather silly comment that seeks to connect results from different constituencies. Apples and oranges.

The only thing that matters is what happens in any given constituency in elections with bad weather on the day, compared with good weather on the day. There there has been agreement on two things, firstly that turnout appears to fall on the bad weather days, which is logical of course, and secondly that higher turnouts benefit the Labour vote for reasons unexplained.

Ergo, bad weather in a constituency is not good news for Labour and bad weather across the whole country on polling day could affect the overall result.
.
.

 

[flecc]

Latest poll: Tories lead Labour by 7%

7% seems fair.

The Pound rose first thing this morning, the City was betting on TM to win, now has dropped back a fair bit. Maybe that exit poll is favouring Labour.

I think this time the turn out will be low because of constant coverage of brexit and election, the pensioners will be more likely to vote for Labour because of the threat to their winter fuel payment by TM, the students will want to go out to vote because of tuition fee.

In my very marginal constituency (165 votes Tory majority), the latest YouGov poll has it that Labour's Sarah Jones leads with 45%, Tory's Gavin Barwell 42%, so the outcome still touch and go. Fingers crossed.
.