Brexit, for once some facts.
- Thread starter flecc
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It's not gone wrong and it isn't going to go wrong. Just because you know an American and he or she doesn't like Donald Trump, does not mean that the mood is changing in the USA.
I think that Trump will do great things for the USA and repair much of the damage done by what's his name, who was the previous president. You know, the idiot that came here threatening the UK.
Forgive me for asking this, but where is this growth going to come from, is it going to be another illusion caused by people getting further into debt, or massive investment is new productive industry?which does not affect very many. That was my point about exaggeration.
In any case, the predicted 'cliff edge' is more of a tick shape. The GDP will dip a little, may not even long enough to qualify as a technical recession.
The red plot is the worst case scenario according to the IMF. You can see that the economy will recover strongly after the dip at the end of 2017.
The more likely scenario is the blue like, a friendlier version to brexit. Evenso, the difference is +/- 2%
EDIT: thanks to oldtom pointing out that the graph does not show where the real economy is.
The real economy is about 3% above the blue plot, since depreciation pushed up GDP.
Just look at this: the Adverse scenario results in the biggest growth?
Have you got the chart upside down?
According to some US journalists I've been listening to, the mood certainly has changed among US voters. It seems many who voted for Trump assumed his OTT methods were to gain the position but would be tempered in power, while the anti-Trump voters hoped that would be true.
But Trump is taking his statements as literal and trying to force into place exactly what he spoke of, and that is now alarming many who voted for him, not expecting that outcome. The same feelings of concern are shared by many republicans in the two governing houses.
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You do have a very odd way of distorting the truth, please explain how Obama threatened the UK?
Did the USS Nimitz sail up the Thames and menace the House of commons?
tillson please concentrate, it's worrying to see you losing the plot like this.
This is what happened
"
Barack Obama: Brexit would put UK 'back of the queue' for trade talks
US president, visiting London, says ‘part of being friends is being honest’ as he lays out perils of leave vote in EU referendum.
Don't you know the difference between a threat and a statement of Policy?
Oh! I forgot, you support Theresa May, and she has no more idea of the difference that you have does she?
The principle being if we make a threat we are negotiating,
If they make a statement we don't like, they are threatening.
Understood.
Growth usually comes from immigration. More people, more demand, more workers.
The sharper slope on the red curve is the result of pessimism before brexit, depressing the Pound, then after brexit, stability returns, causing stronger uplift due to pent up demand and delayed investments.
If the climate is less pessimistic, then the slope is flatter.
The cliff edge is mainly caused by sentiments.
The main thing is, the economy has such a large inertia, you can push it one way or the other but it will bounce back.
Just in case anyone is interested, this is the company that got the contract that Woosh is talking about.
http://comfysaddle.co.uk/
Don't think its too sensitive to share in public lol
I think many US journalists would like the mood to change. Whether the mood has changed is another issue.
it's nothing special. As I said, it's public information. I did not want to help you to find the company that won but I never stopped you to find out for yourself.
The point I made is about brexit, not about the specifics of the order.
The point I made is about brexit, not about the specifics of the order.
Gosh! Shock horror! Will the bicycle industry ever recover from this? The corporate protective shield has been stripped away and now 'Woosh' is looking rather childish and more than a little silly.
Nevertheless, kudos to 'Woosh' for keeping shtum. Not grassing is considered hugely important in certain circles and that gets respect as it's part of a code of honour.
Right, now on to more important things - I have a casserole in the oven that needs looking at.
Tom
oldtom, I don't need to get personal to make a point.
The example I gave is to show how brexit can benefit small companies that do not sell to other countries because competition costs small firms proportionally more than large ones.
You, on the other hand, descend to personal attacks. You have to stop this.
The example I gave is to show how brexit can benefit small companies that do not sell to other countries because competition costs small firms proportionally more than large ones.
You, on the other hand, descend to personal attacks. You have to stop this.
But I think we've just proven that a small UK company did benefit.... just not yours.
That Richard has benefited from that order is not the issue.
The issue is: would brexit benefit about 5 millions small companies that don't sell to other EU countries because it will reduce competition from EU suppliers?
I say it would. Are you saying it won't?
He's a UK small business that has benefited from the tender. So you're example is nonsense.
But onto the wider point that small companies don't benefit from the EU membership.
Well I'll give you 500 examples. FLI and all our customers benefit, in a shost of ways. I can't actually think of a company that doesn't benefit.
Why do you assume competition is a bad thing? You don't like loosing, but post Brexit, you'd have still lost this tender I'm sure.
The enlighten us with examples that the EU benefits a large number of small businesses that don't trade in other countries.
I have lost tenders before, stick to the reason I have given and don't try to link this example some personal issues - that is the kind of tactics that I will never use in a debate.
Competition is healthy but it comes at a cost. Are you going to argue with that too?
[QUOTE="Woosh, post: 360720, member: 8175"
You, on the other hand, descend to personal attacks. You have to stop this.[/QUOTE]
There are no words that adequately express much of the nonsense you post to this thread so I respond to silly, childish behaviour by calling it what it is, whether it comes from you or any other fantasist.
Post something sensible based on fact rather than your fantasies and I might award you some plaudits but thus far, you seem disinclined to explain how this 'Brexit' Shangri-La you envisage will improve the lot of anyone, individual, small company or families.
Should your business see a downturn post-'Brexit', where will the blame be placed? I'm sure there will be casualties directly attributable to the 'Brexit' process rather than just the normal cycle of business with its ups and downs. Something tells me those who are unfortunate enough to go under will be blaming someone and in the absence of the EU, I wonder who that might be.
Tom
You, on the other hand, descend to personal attacks. You have to stop this.[/QUOTE]
There are no words that adequately express much of the nonsense you post to this thread so I respond to silly, childish behaviour by calling it what it is, whether it comes from you or any other fantasist.
Post something sensible based on fact rather than your fantasies and I might award you some plaudits but thus far, you seem disinclined to explain how this 'Brexit' Shangri-La you envisage will improve the lot of anyone, individual, small company or families.
Should your business see a downturn post-'Brexit', where will the blame be placed? I'm sure there will be casualties directly attributable to the 'Brexit' process rather than just the normal cycle of business with its ups and downs. Something tells me those who are unfortunate enough to go under will be blaming someone and in the absence of the EU, I wonder who that might be.
Tom