Brexit, for once some facts.

[oldgroaner]

I don’t think we will be looking to rejoin in four years time. We may have done so had Coronavirus not come along, but now it here, coronavirus will be a convenient scapegoat upon which to lay the blame for all the economic hardship created by Brexit. It will now take 6 to 8 years before people realise what Brexit has done.

I’m still waiting for someone to tell me which opportunities we are going to grasp next year, which EU laws they are going to scrap because they have been disadvantaging them and what new U.K. laws they’d like to see. All you hear is, fish, sovereignty, freedom and bullying. All of it is totally meaningless and without any substance whatsoever. They are just words, in fact they aren’t even meet the requirements for that status. Usually words are used in a sentence that actually means something, freedom & sovereignty in the context of Brexit is complete nonsense.

I agree on most points with one exception the government don't need to make the mistake of having another referendum to go back in, especially if the EU gives them an "offer you can't refuse"
Suddenly the Right wing rags will become pro rejoining
History as always repeating itself!

 

[oldgroaner]

Latest published information on the FTA with the EU
Only 34 pages.......hmm!
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/948093/TCA_SUMMARY_PDF.pdf

Some of the wording is misleading
"The Agreement establishes the treatment and level of access the UK and EU have agreed to grant each other’s service suppliers and investors. "
Think about what that actually means, and it isn't to our advantage, we are now not free but subject to control.
Read through it as I have, and what emerges, is the fact that this agreement actually requires a heck of a lot more work on thousands of different issues than was necessary before.
Any plan as complicated as this in the hands of people not disposed to be rational and reasonable charged with diligently applying it's terms and conditions will prove fraught in the future.
A huge increase in time and effort for no return

 

[Barry Shittpeas]

Stand to attention for Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth.

 

[oldgroaner]

Stand to attention for Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth.

I claim exemption on the grounds of going for an eyesight testing drive

 

[Danidl]

Tell me why it won't.
As I said yesterday, EU are between a rock and hard place. Punish us, punish themselves. Don't punish us others will leave. Will take a few years for Portugal,Greece, Italy and Spain to realise UK is fine out of EU, has free trade, self determination, immigration control and fiscally OK... They all already feel Euro is holding them back(none of them can devalue their own currency), they will see a growing trend of rich Europeans with more buying power than they can imagine,and rightly or wrongly will blame EU for their plight. A common currency between rich and poor countries is impossible without common welfare, social care and taxation. Look how USA uses federal money to pay welfare for poorer States. Californian tax pays Alabama welfare. No such arrangement will ever exist in EU, would cost Germany and France way more than they can pay, more so now without us.
Its not a matter of if for countries to leave . Its when. Unless of course there is massive reform, reform the EU can ill afford. Reform to make Greeks and Italians as rich as the French and Germans. Its simply a matter of time and which country exits next. My bet is Italy. They are actually fiercely in dependant and have an inbuilt mistrust of Germany. (sorry for racist tone, but it's true)
EU is now doomed.
Merry Christmas everybody.

Zlatan. .. you are getting delusional. The UK needs the EU more than the reverse..and this will become very evident soon. The EU did not and does not want an Albania lodged between Holland and Ireland. The Trade deal is very welcome , the hiatus in the fishing debacle is extremely welcome, but the main one that the UK needed but maybe ignores that it wants is the financial services . Another one they are going to rue very quickly is the short sighted one of removing recognition of EU qualifications.
You correctly note that the EU needs reform .. and now it will now ...,the monkey is off its back. The UK trade deal was a major distraction, somewhere around 5 on a list of real priorities, behind China, Russian interference, expansion ,CV19, and reform.
But as I said previously , it could have been a lot worse for Ireland ,and for that I am greatful.
It will have escaped most Mainland UK residents, but many of the distribution companies are notifying their NI customers that they are withdrawing service ,or increasing costs as the value of a market of 1.5 million is not worth the effort of extra administration

 

[Danidl]

Stand to attention for Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth.

Not I ..

 

[flecc]

Zlatan. .. you are getting delusional.

Thanks for this Danidl. Delusional was precisely the word I intended to use in a reply to Zlatan's post but in the end I didn't bother to respond. I know from past experience that Zlatan's phobic hatred of the EU makes him unable to see reason and judge rationally in any discussion about that institution.
.

 

[oldgroaner]

The biggest problem we are going to face is that on this side of the channel there will not simply be inadequate scrutiny of the terms of the deal, but inevitably attempts to avoid the rules
I wonder how long before there is a degree of chafing between the two sides?
A week? a month? a year?

 

[Barry Shittpeas]

I know from past experience that Zlatan's phobic hatred of the EU makes him unable to see reason and judge rationally in any discussion

Similar to me with the French. Can’t stand the oily & treacherous blighters.

 

[oldgroaner]

Similar to me with the French. Can’t stand the oily & treacherous blighters.

Have you thought of a career as a Tory politician?

 

[OxygenJames]

Well. That was all very interesting. Trying to figure out who 'won' this negotiation was reasonably simple - the press conferences told the real story of who had won most.

Ursula von der Leyen and Michel Barnier looked as if they were delivering memorial speeches at a funeral. Mrs Von der Leyen, who may well have been the quiet heroine of this story, displayed faultless diplomacy in her dignified grief. But the most revealing point in her solemn disquisition was her clear failure, still, to understand what the word “sovereignty” meant. It should be understood, she said, in the twenty-first century to be something more like the EU ideal: solidarity and harmony between partners. But that, of course, is not what it means. As Boris Johnson – who was clearly, and justifiably, not sad at all – made clear, what sovereignty actually means is that our laws will be determined by our own elected parliament and interpreted by our own judges. And it is that understanding – that profound difference of basic principle – which underlies our incompatibility with the European ideology.

Trying – but not always succeeding – to resist triumphalism, Boris had the clearest, strongest argument possible: we are now, indisputably, part of a giant free trade zone with Europe but also able to make free trade agreements with other countries. We are in the most advantageous global position that we might have hoped for. He too was diplomatic in his explanation of why our membership of the EU had foundered. It was a fundamental historical difference in our political cultures: nations like Germany, France and Italy were determined that their peoples should never go to war with one another again – and the Benelux countries which had been trampled in the process were eager to go along.

But the UK – he did not quite say – does not share in that guilty remorse, and is proud of the independent and courageous role it played in the events of the last century. The consolidation and diminishing of national power which seemed the morally right path for so many European states was not appropriate or comfortable for us. So we have, at last, found our rightful place in a trading relationship and friendly partnership with the EU that does not involve a diminution of the democratic accountability of our elected government.

Happy days.

 

[oyster]

Happy days.

Never a happy day with Johnson as PM.

His failures are in every direction.

 

[Woosh]

we are now, indisputably, part of a giant free trade zone with Europe but also able to make free trade agreements with other countries.

we are and we are not.
The devil is in the details of the rules of origin or 'RoO' in the document.
To qualify for preferential tariff (moving toward net zero but can be not zero), UK products need 60% UK origin. EU contents in UK products count also as UK origin. This point will also be important in the pending US/UK FTA. Traditionally, we don't manufacture much and add only small amount of transformation to the goods we sell on.
We buy German and French hi tech parts and add some of ours to export to the US and buy US high tech parts to sell to Germans and French. Now we are outside the SM, some of our exports will fail RoO.
Overtime, without continued trade in services, our trade deficit with the EU will increase further and quickly.
Similarly, our trade surplus with the US will vanish and become a deficit.
You just watch the trend next year.
At the end of the day, who wins and loses is decided by trade balances. That's why the market favours always the larger trading blocs.

 

[Danidl]

Well. That was all very interesting. Trying to figure out who 'won' this negotiation was reasonably simple - the press conferences told the real story of who had won most.

Ursula von der Leyen and Michel Barnier looked as if they were delivering memorial speeches at a funeral. Mrs Von der Leyen, who may well have been the quiet heroine of this story, displayed faultless diplomacy in her dignified grief. But the most revealing point in her solemn disquisition was her clear failure, still, to understand what the word “sovereignty” meant. It should be understood, she said, in the twenty-first century to be something more like the EU ideal: solidarity and harmony between partners. But that, of course, is not what it means. As Boris Johnson – who was clearly, and justifiably, not sad at all – made clear, what sovereignty actually means is that our laws will be determined by our own elected parliament and interpreted by our own judges. And it is that understanding – that profound difference of basic principle – which underlies our incompatibility with the European ideology.

Trying – but not always succeeding – to resist triumphalism, Boris had the clearest, strongest argument possible: we are now, indisputably, part of a giant free trade zone with Europe but also able to make free trade agreements with other countries. We are in the most advantageous global position that we might have hoped for. He too was diplomatic in his explanation of why our membership of the EU had foundered. It was a fundamental historical difference in our political cultures: nations like Germany, France and Italy were determined that their peoples should never go to war with one another again – and the Benelux countries which had been trampled in the process were eager to go along.

But the UK – he did not quite say – does not share in that guilty remorse, and is proud of the independent and courageous role it played in the events of the last century. The consolidation and diminishing of national power which seemed the morally right path for so many European states was not appropriate or comfortable for us. So we have, at last, found our rightful place in a trading relationship and friendly partnership with the EU that does not involve a diminution of the democratic accountability of our elected government.

Happy days.

There exists an opinion piece in the Irish Times of about 10 days ago, by Fintain O Toole, as editor.. it might be instructive for you to read it. In essence it reminded the EU to let the UK believe they had achieved their goals

 

[Danidl]

we are and we are not.
The devil is in the details of the rules of origin or 'RoO' in the document.
To qualify for preferential tariff (moving toward net zero but can be not zero), UK products need 60% UK origin. EU contents in UK products count also as UK origin. This point will also be important in the pending US/UK FTA. Traditionally, we don't manufacture much and add only small amount of transformation to the goods we sell on.
We buy German and French hi tech parts and add some of ours to export to the US and buy US high tech parts to sell to Germans and French. Now we are outside the SM, some of our exports will fail RoO.
Overtime, without continued trade in services, our trade deficit with the EU will increase further and quickly.
Similarly, our trade surplus with the US will vanish and become a deficit.
You just watch the trend next year.
At the end of the day, who wins and loses is decided by trade balances. That's why the market favours always the larger trading blocs.

.. and for the purpose of the FTA, material from an EU country is recognised as British, in this calculation, but Japanese, American, Asian is not.

 

[flecc]

So we have, at last, found our rightful place in a trading relationship and friendly partnership with the EU

As a shop with little stock to sell. Just like those glorious EU free days before 1972 when we reached bankruptcy and had to get the IMF to rescue us.

Napoleon was nearly right.
.

 

[Zlatan]

Well. That was all very interesting. Trying to figure out who 'won' this negotiation was reasonably simple - the press conferences told the real story of who had won most.

Ursula von der Leyen and Michel Barnier looked as if they were delivering memorial speeches at a funeral. Mrs Von der Leyen, who may well have been the quiet heroine of this story, displayed faultless diplomacy in her dignified grief. But the most revealing point in her solemn disquisition was her clear failure, still, to understand what the word “sovereignty” meant. It should be understood, she said, in the twenty-first century to be something more like the EU ideal: solidarity and harmony between partners. But that, of course, is not what it means. As Boris Johnson – who was clearly, and justifiably, not sad at all – made clear, what sovereignty actually means is that our laws will be determined by our own elected parliament and interpreted by our own judges. And it is that understanding – that profound difference of basic principle – which underlies our incompatibility with the European ideology.

Trying – but not always succeeding – to resist triumphalism, Boris had the clearest, strongest argument possible: we are now, indisputably, part of a giant free trade zone with Europe but also able to make free trade agreements with other countries. We are in the most advantageous global position that we might have hoped for. He too was diplomatic in his explanation of why our membership of the EU had foundered. It was a fundamental historical difference in our political cultures: nations like Germany, France and Italy were determined that their peoples should never go to war with one another again – and the Benelux countries which had been trampled in the process were eager to go along.

But the UK – he did not quite say – does not share in that guilty remorse, and is proud of the independent and courageous role it played in the events of the last century. The consolidation and diminishing of national power which seemed the morally right path for so many European states was not appropriate or comfortable for us. So we have, at last, found our rightful place in a trading relationship and friendly partnership with the EU that does not involve a diminution of the democratic accountability of our elected government.

Happy days.

Great Post OJ...
One of the definitions of stupid is to repeat a mistake and expect a different outcome. Poor old OG and Flecc keep predicting our down fall, as they have for last 4 years, predicted no deal, insisted on Brino at best, yet keep doing same again and again.(and again and again)
OG has been saying for over 4 years now we are doomed... He, s worse than Frazer on Dad's Army..
We now get a deal, leave EU, Boris is happiest I, ve seen him, we get quota free trade, tarif free trade with entire EU and freedom to make our own deals outside EU and this lot are now shouting "well the devil is in the detail". Yes lads, of course it is.
We, ve got blue passports, immigration control, freedom to go to EU (3 months out of 6),bendy bananas, gallons and ounces (if we want) no MEPs, no EU bills, no roads to build snaking through desolate wilderness of Northern Spain, no Barnier no Macron, no Merkel. But I can still buy my new Porsche (or Jag F type) and drive through France. Happy days. OG, Flecc, Woosh and Danidl just want something to moan about.. Like we haven't got anything else... Honestly, its a laugh coming on here reading some of these posts. Eeking out diminishing negativity. Hard look lads.. All gone from Brexit. We, ve left. Got free trade. No ECJ, immigration control...everything we wanted.
We can't sell seed potatoes tho... Well Sturgeon can't, we'll not to the Irish.
I honestly wouldn't have the nerve to post on here if I were OG. All his predictions.. All up in smoke...
Like you say. Happy Days. (with respect to EU) Covid not yet, but on that front... Great news from Astra Zeneca. Trials started of drug treatment for those exposed to Cvd. (Google Storm Chaser) Claiming to have treatment to prevent infection for any who can't have vaccine. (immuno suppressed) Early days but good news.

 

[Zlatan]

As a shop with little stock to sell. Just like those glorious EU free days before 1972 when we reached bankruptcy and had to get the IMF to rescue us.

Napoleon was nearly right.
.

You really are stuck in 1975 Flecc. Move on old boy. It's like talking about the 20s in 1970...Its 50 years ago for goodness sake flecc.

 

[Danidl]

Great Post OJ...
One of the definitions of stupid is to repeat a mistake and expect a different outcome. Poor old OG and Flecc keep predicting our down fall, as they have for last 4 years, predicted no deal, insisted on Brino at best, yet keep doing same again and again.(and again and again)
OG has been saying for over 4 years now we are doomed... He, s worse than Frazer on Dad's Army..
We now get a deal, leave EU, Boris is happiest I, ve seen him, we get quota free trade, tarif free trade with entire EU and freedom to make our own deals outside EU and this lot are now shouting "well the devil is in the detail". Yes lads, of course it is.
We, ve got blue passports, immigration control, freedom to go to EU (3 months out of 6),bendy bananas, gallons and ounces (if we want) no MEPs, no EU bills, no roads to build snaking through desolate wilderness of Northern Spain, no Barnier no Macron, no Merkel. But I can still buy my new Porsche (or Jag F type) and drive through France. Happy days. OG, Flecc, Woosh and Danidl just want something to moan about.. Like we haven't got anything else... Honestly, its a laugh coming on here reading some of these posts. Eeking out diminishing negativity. Hard look lads.. All gone from Brexit. We, ve left. Got free trade. No ECJ, immigration control...everything we wanted.
We can't sell seed potatoes tho... Well Sturgeon can't, we'll not to the Irish.
I honestly wouldn't have the nerve to post on here if I were OG. All his predictions.. All up in smoke...
Like you say. Happy Days. (with respect to EU) Covid not yet, but on that front... Great news from Astra Zeneca. Trials started of drug treatment for those exposed to Cvd. (Google Storm Chaser) Claiming to have treatment to prevent infection for any who can't have vaccine. (immuno suppressed) Early days but good news.

You read me wrong..I haven't expressed any desire to have the UK punished, nor do I want them to fail. I have expressed on many occasions that I have relations there. Obviously I don't want them discommoded. But I now have had a short opportunity to read the Trade deal, and the amount that is left out,and eventually will need to be negotiated is major. The internal pressure within the UK to sunder that union will grow, the loss of EU professional expertise will damage UK service sectors ,and the non existence of financial passporting is already hurting UK Balance of Trade.

 

[oldgroaner]

Well. That was all very interesting. Trying to figure out who 'won' this negotiation was reasonably simple - the press conferences told the real story of who had won most.

Ursula von der Leyen and Michel Barnier looked as if they were delivering memorial speeches at a funeral. Mrs Von der Leyen, who may well have been the quiet heroine of this story, displayed faultless diplomacy in her dignified grief. But the most revealing point in her solemn disquisition was her clear failure, still, to understand what the word “sovereignty” meant. It should be understood, she said, in the twenty-first century to be something more like the EU ideal: solidarity and harmony between partners. But that, of course, is not what it means. As Boris Johnson – who was clearly, and justifiably, not sad at all – made clear, what sovereignty actually means is that our laws will be determined by our own elected parliament and interpreted by our own judges. And it is that understanding – that profound difference of basic principle – which underlies our incompatibility with the European ideology.

Trying – but not always succeeding – to resist triumphalism, Boris had the clearest, strongest argument possible: we are now, indisputably, part of a giant free trade zone with Europe but also able to make free trade agreements with other countries. We are in the most advantageous global position that we might have hoped for. He too was diplomatic in his explanation of why our membership of the EU had foundered. It was a fundamental historical difference in our political cultures: nations like Germany, France and Italy were determined that their peoples should never go to war with one another again – and the Benelux countries which had been trampled in the process were eager to go along.

But the UK – he did not quite say – does not share in that guilty remorse, and is proud of the independent and courageous role it played in the events of the last century. The consolidation and diminishing of national power which seemed the morally right path for so many European states was not appropriate or comfortable for us. So we have, at last, found our rightful place in a trading relationship and friendly partnership with the EU that does not involve a diminution of the democratic accountability of our elected government.

Happy days.

Still no wiser than you were at the start, you're not going to like this BBC assessment!
https://www.bbc.com/news/55402088
Extracts below
"
This is not a normal trade agreement.
Trade deals are designed to make trade easier and cheaper, by bringing countries closer together.
This one is pushing the two sides further apart. It ends frictionless trade between the UK and its largest trading partner, creating extra costs.
The government says this is one of the big benefits of Brexit - the UK will be more nimble, able to make its own sovereign decisions.
But any gains will be limited. New deals - over the next few years - will not replace trade that will be lost with the EU.
Earlier government promises that the UK would have 'exactly the same benefits' as it had inside the EU have not been delivered, and they never could have been. "

Amazing that once duped, Brexit fans seem caught like Rabbits in car headlights and unable to move
You and the rest of us have been Mugged, but not to worry in four years there will be a review, and we will have the chance to creep back into EU membership hopefully having learned our lesson.
In the meantime Enjoy Boris' cut and paste of Mays deal.
Why not read the published summary, even that can't cover up the mistakes we have made
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/948093/TCA_SUMMARY_PDF.pdf
We predicted BRINO
And that is what we have