Brexit, for once some facts.

oyster

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Nov 7, 2017
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The current restrictions are working so well...

Leak reveals possible harsher three-tier Covid plan for England
A new three-tier lockdown system is planned for England, with leaked government documents paving the way for potential harsher restrictions including the closure of pubs and a ban on all social contact outside of household groups.
 

Wicky

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Feb 12, 2014
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it's more likely that his campaign strategists have decided that the President has changed his view on Covid. Already he has not branded 'Chinese virus'' in his last briefing.
Our ex-ambassador to the US (Christopher Meyer) reckons they are going after the sympathy votes.
Depends how he turn's out and if special effects can make Trump look presentable - latest video of him signing blank bit of paper has craftily edited out coughing.


Boris is a couple of decades younger and still doesn't seem well (before and after)

 
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Wicky

Esteemed Pedelecer
Feb 12, 2014
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www.jhepburn.co.uk
The current restrictions are working so well...

Leak reveals possible harsher three-tier Covid plan for England
A new three-tier lockdown system is planned for England, with leaked government documents paving the way for potential harsher restrictions including the closure of pubs and a ban on all social contact outside of household groups.
Tier 1 Lockdown for the public good

 

Nev

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May 1, 2018
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Fingers

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Feb 9, 2016
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Depends how he turn's out and if special effects can make Trump look presentable - latest video of him signing blank bit of paper has craftily edited out coughing.


Boris is a couple of decades younger and still doesn't seem well (before and after)

it was a terrible edit as well. The transition is called a fluid morph.

they used it with 2 to 4 frames on the transition.

it would have been smoother with a 12 frame transition.

**** poor.
 

oyster

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Nov 7, 2017
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I mentioned the 80/20 rule and Covid 19 on the 15th of July this year in this post. https://www.pedelecs.co.uk/forum/threads/brexit-for-once-some-facts.24369/page-4031

There now seems to be a lot more evidence that this appears to happen a lot of the time. This article is a very interesting read, it contains far more than just the 80/20 rule.

Very easy to read. Interesting.

Some of it makes so much sense. The UK emphasis on R was patently, obviously wrong. Even at the time it was being much discussed, it did not make sense.

The factor that I think lacks emphasis in that article is speed. Time from suspecting an outbreak to finding out, then doing anything about it. We have seen so many recent discussions about some place or other - warning for what seems like weeks that a place is under threat of tighter restriction. But nothing happens until it is so late that the numbers shoot up.
 

Woosh

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May 19, 2012
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There now seems to be a lot more evidence that this appears to happen a lot of the time. This article is a very interesting read, it contains far more than just the 80/20 rule.
It's a bit rambling but it's good observation.
I am mostly concerned with ventilation as winter is coming. We have a large number of windows at our place, so in the summer, we keep lots of them open - something we can't do in the winter.
 

Danidl

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Sep 29, 2016
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it's more likely that his campaign strategists have decided that the President has changed his view on Covid. Already he has not branded 'Chinese virus'' in his last briefing.
Our ex-ambassador to the US (Christopher Meyer) reckons they are going after the sympathy votes.
Yes I distinctly noticed the use of Covaid instead of China
 

RossG

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Feb 12, 2019
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it was a terrible edit as well. The transition is called a fluid morph.

they used it with 2 to 4 frames on the transition.

it would have been smoother with a 12 frame transition.

**** poor.
You only need 3 or 4 frames to achieve a good morph edit, that's all I use. The trick is to stream the morph don't chop it. Most video editing software does the whole thing automatically so it's easy to get right, perhaps Trump is the one who's morphing.

Just noticed on the news he's out and about again ... it's a miracle !
 
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jonathan.agnew

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Dec 27, 2018
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Very easy to read. Interesting.

Some of it makes so much sense. The UK emphasis on R was patently, obviously wrong. Even at the time it was being much discussed, it did not make sense.

The factor that I think lacks emphasis in that article is speed. Time from suspecting an outbreak to finding out, then doing anything about it. We have seen so many recent discussions about some place or other - warning for what seems like weeks that a place is under threat of tighter restriction. But nothing happens until it is so late that the numbers shoot up.
16k new covid infections have been missed by PHE over the past two days and their contacts not informed. I met two old friends in a pub on the thames in london today. I was the only one who downloaded the app. It refused to scan the bar code at the entrance. Eventually I gave up. It was a very rainy cold day. We ended up inside in a crowded pub with at least hundred unmasked customers less than 2m apart speaking at the top of their voices. I've had covid in the past 9 months and believe I may have immunity. But clearly, regardless of the r rating, this isnt going to end well.
 

Barry Shittpeas

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Jan 1, 2020
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16k new covid infections have been missed by PHE over the past two days and their contacts not informed. I met two old friends in a pub on the thames in london today. I was the only one who downloaded the app. It refused to scan the bar code at the entrance. Eventually I gave up. It was a very rainy cold day. We ended up inside in a crowded pub with at least hundred unmasked customers less than 2m apart speaking at the top of their voices. I've had covid in the past 9 months and believe I may have immunity. But clearly, regardless of the r rating, this isnt going to end well.
Pubs and other businesses in the hospitality sector seem to be doing FA to help themselves. A few weeks ago there was an outbreak traced to a pub near me and the landlord hadn’t even provided a register for people to sign in. A week later I passed by the same pub on my bike and it was rammed full of people again. Whilst ever people and businesses operate like this new infections will continue to climb. I don’t think it will be long before we are doing hundreds per day again.
 

oldgroaner

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Nov 15, 2015
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In the Express a dangerous dose of reality
"
Brexit LIVE: Scottish Tory chief claims fishermen 'NOT READY' to seize more quotas
FISHERMEN across Britain are woefully unprepared to seize the increased quota after the Brexit transition period has ended, the Scottish Tory leader has proclaimed in comments likely to infuriate leading figures in the industry.

He's right! and you can't usually level such an accusation against a Tory
Whatever came over him? :cool:

Not to worry there is an answer just waiting to be employed
Steal foreign boats!

As this clown commented

"
Broken briton2 HRS AGO
How are our fishermen supposed to be ready to use more of our waters ? You havent even Confiscated any foreign fishing boats for them yet ! Hurry up and why not seek applications from Britains fishermen to claim a share of the pillaged boats. In readiness for when they can receive a share ?
.................................................................
Welcome to Pirate Britain me hearties!:D
 
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oyster

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jonathan.agnew

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Dec 27, 2018
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Pubs and other businesses in the hospitality sector seem to be doing FA to help themselves. A few weeks ago there was an outbreak traced to a pub near me and the landlord hadn’t even provided a register for people to sign in. A week later I passed by the same pub on my bike and it was rammed full of people again. Whilst ever people and businesses operate like this new infections will continue to climb. I don’t think it will be long before we are doing hundreds per day again.
This goes back to our previous disagreement about the state not providing sufficient infrastructure (my view) and yours that individuals should help themselves regardless. I'll give you an example, we were served in the pub by a helpful but quite desperate waiter and other staff. It dt felt clear to me to what degree they do what they do to survive and have to put up with circumstances because of this.
 

sjpt

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Jun 8, 2018
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There now seems to be a lot more evidence that this appears to happen a lot of the time. This article is a very interesting read, it contains far more than just the 80/20 rule.
Interesting. Just skimmed so far, I will reread more carefully. Also backs up my intuition that the 6 people outside rule was irrelevant (as well as personally inconvenient). burdensome restrictions that fail to achieve substantial mitigation. The U.K.’s recent decision to limit outdoor gatherings to six people while allowing pubs and bars to remain open is just one of many such examples.” And that air conditioning is likely to have an even worse effect that I had thought.

Also the wider issue that average is almost always a very poor measure. Despite being very aware of that I still hand't put 2 and 2 together to associate its deficiencies with R value.
 

wheeler

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jun 4, 2016
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Scotland
You only need 3 or 4 frames to achieve a good morph edit, that's all I use. The trick is to stream the morph don't chop it. Most video editing software does the whole thing automatically so it's easy to get right, perhaps Trump is the one who's morphing
That's all very good but you won't get a BAFTA doing it that way .
 

Barry Shittpeas

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jan 1, 2020
2,325
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This goes back to our previous disagreement about the state not providing sufficient infrastructure (my view) and yours that individuals should help themselves regardless. I'll give you an example, we were served in the pub by a helpful but quite desperate waiter and other staff. It dt felt clear to me to what degree they do what they do to survive and have to put up with circumstances because of this.
I agree that the government’s messages, guidelines and examples set by politicians from all parties has been appalling. However, the Conservatives are in power, so they carry all the responsibility.

I don’t have any medical knowledge or skills in predicting how viruses are passed on. However, I’ve picked up enough to know that this virus is highly contagious and it’s airborne. That’s all the information we need to tell us what to do. The rules are for bell-ends to try and find loopholes so that they can grant themselves easements and then go on to catch the virus and kill themselves or a loved one.

Highly infectious and airborne. Therefore people know what you need to do, but they are incapable of doing it. It’s not necessary to hide away, but try to carry out your daily routine in well ventilated environments, like outside. If people go inside into a pub, café , theatre or have a family gathering in their home etc, the probability of catching Coronavirus increases massively. It’s not a difficult thing to understand, even I understand it and I’m especially stupid.

I’m afraid the pub and indoor auditorium environment is dead until this virus is over.
 

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