Brexit, for once some facts.

[Woosh]

TB is well known to be incredibly long lasting . It is an occupational hazard for historians and librarians

That article that Nev referred to demonstrated with reasonable amount of proof that COVID19 is airborne.
There are plenty of supporting evidence, including pictures of that recent grouping when Trump announced his choice for the vacant Supreme Court Justice.
Basically, if you have sharp clusters then it's likely airborne.

This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic

It’s not R.

medium.com

 

[Danidl]

Again you make the same mistake of assuming this population modified behaviour.

I don't know how many times it will take this person on the spot telling you that here they either haven't or that any modification was adverse before you accept it. Perhaps you never will, preferring your own illusion and fantasy to Neil Ferguson's studied opinion.
.

Again and again it needs repeating, I don't doubt your observations,. But have you been shopping in central London , just how busy has Oxford Street been this July and August compared with January?.
The most dangerous locations are crowded indoor spaces with limited ventilation ..so while attending a football game in open stands might be medium risk, the crowds jostling in is high risk and the public transport after extremely high and the pub after even worse.
Remove some of these and the incidence goes down.
Why would BJs government have incentived restaurant going , except to encourage people to start going out?.

 

[Danidl]

That article that Nev referred to demonstrated with reasonable amount of proof that COVID19 is airborne.
There are plenty of supporting evidence, including pictures of that recent grouping when Trump announced his choice for the vacant Supreme Court Justice.
Basically, if you have sharp clusters then it's likely airborne.

This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic

It’s not R.

medium.com

Basically, if you have sharp clusters then it's likely airborne...as well as the back slapping and hugging which also went on at the same event.

 

[RossG]

London has nearly 5,000 cases of covid a week and rapidly rising .. herd immunity !

 

[oldgroaner]

Dido Harding strikes again eh?

Nick Someone@Nick_Someone

OK, now this is pretty amazing. The UK decided to use a spreadsheet to gather data about testing in a 66 MILLION person country instead of a database, and when the file size restriction of an Excel file occurred the system broke. Wow. That's dumb.

My reaction?
No ,that's up to the usual standard of this government's performance, and perhaps will any luck they haven't potentially killed anyone this time.

 

[oldgroaner]

Highly infectious ..maybe
Air borne.. not really . It is part of a continuum from big fat gobules down to minute aerosols, and with infectivity to match. All evidence is that a big blob is much much worse than a tiny blob in ensuring that an infection
Deadly ?... Take your pick. Compared to the Black Death or the Tudors sweating sickness, its in the halfpenny place, compared to a basic flu a lot more serious, probably worse than measles
Insidious??. Oh yes it is in a league of its own. There are very few ,if any, other illnesses, where one is infectious Before one is ill.

But the rest of your posting I agree with. Common sense pays dividends,.

"Common sense pays dividends,."
About time there was a blooming share release then!
Aha!
So that's what's going on
Just as with Fishing rights, some blighter has sold off the UK common sense quota to the EU.
And you can bet that sale was done by the Hedge Fund managers

 

[Barry Shittpeas]

Dido Harding strikes again eh?

Nick Someone@Nick_Someone

OK, now this is pretty amazing. The UK decided to use a spreadsheet to gather data about testing in a 66 MILLION person country instead of a database, and when the file size restriction of an Excel file occurred the system broke. Wow. That's dumb.

My reaction?
No ,that's up to the usual standard of this government's performance, and perhaps will any luck they haven't potentially killed anyone this time.

She’s a ******* jockey not a software specialist. Cut her a bit of slack.

 

[Barry Shittpeas]

Although there's some truth in the first paragraph above, the second isn't true.

Over 80% of the population are either immune to Covid-19 or suffer no symptoms from it or so few symptoms that it leaves them barely affected at all. Since those venues have long existed healthily on much smaller fractions of the population, clearly they can continue to regardless of Covid-19's continuation.

That of course is why they've continued to be packed out even in the earliest of highest Covid affected areas like London. Should you doubt this, take note of when Professor Neil Ferguson was interviewed by Professor Jim Al-Khalili on the Life Scientific program a few days ago.

In dismissing herd immunity for the country as a possibility he added that he believed some areas of London have already achieved herd immunity. I believe he is right since it explains the otherwise unexplained in large boroughs like my own that were so severely affected by Covid in the early days of March and April but are now able to shrug off the threat by ignoring almost all the regulations without the scale of ill effects seen elsewhere.

I look with surprise and disbelief at the TV news showing other cities and towns with so many people walking around wearing masks all the time. Here almost no-one is doing that, not even in the shopping areas, usually only slipping on a mask at a shop door if entered and sometimes not even then. And here social distancing is largely ignored.

Of course all this post is support for the balanced Swedish approach which I still see as the better by far. At this point may I ask all the nanny state types not to post figures on infections/deaths etc in Sweden, only for me to ignore them. I ignore them because every approach has a balance of human and economic cost and which is best is a matter of opinion and practicality, not decisive fact.
.

Which bit of my paragraph has some truth in it? The bit where I say that I’m very stupid?

I can’t believe that if you take 100 people and dose them all with Coronavirus, only 20 will show any symptoms. It doesn’t add up.

 

[Nev]

I can’t believe that if you take 100 people and dose them all with Coronavirus, only 20 will show any symptoms. It doesn’t add up.

There is a Scottish professor (can't remember his name) has some position to do with health in the Scottish government. Comes across as knowing his stuff (could be just a good bull sh........) and has been on the radio several times over the last few months. He explains Covid risk like this.

If we give Covid to 100 adults in the UK selected at random, 4% of them would become very ill requiring hospitalization, and 1% of the 100 would die. He said the 1% number is gradually coming down with improvements in treatment, so it is probably around 0.8% now.

I have heard him making this statement several times and no one ever challenges him so I assume he has not just made these numbers up and must have got them from somewhere reputable.

 

[oldgroaner]

She’s a ******* jockey not a software specialist. Cut her a bit of slack.

If they threw that much money my way they would have got a working system for the money , begged stolen or borrowed, but operational, never mind cutting anyone any slack

 

[oldgroaner]

interesting? or out of date?
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30257-7/fulltext

 

[flecc]

Again and again it needs repeating, I don't doubt your observations,. But have you been shopping in central London , just how busy has Oxford Street been this July and August compared with January?.

And again I repeat, they are visitors who don't affect London's figures.

We don't go there, it's too much hassle, the last time I went to Oxford Steet was the beginning of 1972, almost half a century ago and I don't know any fellow Londoners who do any more, not even those friends in the inner boroughs. The West End has long been for visitors only, ruined for Londoners very long ago, I'd learnt to hate it by the late 1960s.
.

 

[sjpt]

Why would BJs government have incentived restaurant going , except to encourage people to start going out?.

They incentivised restaurant going for economic reasons, and despite the downside effects on virus spread. Many restaurants (like many pubs) are taking insufficient care of the rules and are not very well ventilated indoor spaces.

We've had a couple of meals out since it has been allowed again, one on the very first day where the pub hadn't really got things sorted at all, and one just over a week ago where they were very careful and I think the risk was low. (And one meal really 'out' eating excellent fish and chips on the beach; that must have been very low risk!).

 

[flecc]

London has nearly 5,000 cases of covid a week and rapidly rising .. herd immunity !

I've answered that to you already, but you'd rather repeat yourself than acknowledge that Ferguson and I referred to PARTS of London.
.

 

[Barry Shittpeas]

If they threw that much money my way they would have got a working system for the money , begged stolen or borrowed, but operational, never mind cutting anyone any slack

As I’ve said before, I’m very stupid. But I’m not stupid enough to throw money at a jockey to develop the nation’s track & trace system. That takes a very special type of stupid.

 

[flecc]

Which bit of my paragraph has some truth in it?

"If people go inside into a pub, café , theatre or have a family gathering in their home etc, the probability of catching Coronavirus increases massively. It’s not a difficult thing to understand"

I can’t believe that if you take 100 people and dose them all with Coronavirus, only 20 will show any symptoms. It doesn’t add up.

First stick to what I posted, It does add up in London, I've no idea what the position is elsewhere. And I did not say no symptoms for the 20%, I split them into three groups with only one group of unstated size with no symptoms.

What I posted does exist already for the great majority of London, only two of the 29 London Boroughs differing substantially and only one of them a large borough.
.

 

[RossG]

Let's not

I've answered that to you already, but you'd rather repeat yourself than acknowledge that Ferguson and I referred to PARTS of London.
.

In turn I'll repeat, Neil Ferguson is an idiot who should be prosecuted for breaking lockdown rules.

 

[RossG]

It's odd how you can type something into the forum then change your mind and it remembers what you typed six hours earlier even if you shut it down ... spooky or in our case spokey.

 

[jonathan.agnew]

Dido Harding strikes again eh?
Nick Someone@Nick_Someone

OK, now this is pretty amazing. The UK decided to use a spreadsheet to gather data about testing in a 66 MILLION person country instead of a database, and when the file size restriction of an Excel file occurred the system broke. Wow. That's dumb.

My reaction?
No ,that's up to the usual standard of this government's performance, and perhaps will any luck they haven't potentially killed anyone this time.

16k infected peoples' contacts not being traced for several days. There's an exponential curve in there of the number of untraced resulting infections (and deaths in two weeks plus). But I guess it's nothing compared to their usual mayhem.

 

[Danidl]

There is a Scottish professor (can't remember his name) has some position to do with health in the Scottish government. Comes across as knowing his stuff (could be just a good bull sh........) and has been on the radio several times over the last few months. He explains Covid risk like this.

If we give Covid to 100 adults in the UK selected at random, 4% of them would become very ill requiring hospitalization, and 1% of the 100 would die. He said the 1% number is gradually coming down with improvements in treatment, so it is probably around 0.8% now.

I have heard him making this statement several times and no one ever challenges him so I assume he has not just made these numbers up and must have got them from somewhere reputable.

I think he is wrong ... And this is why. ..And it hinges on whether the infection "takes "with that patient. If he waits until there is a positive diagnosis, I would suggest that 80% will get treated at home,and 20% will need hospital care of which 8% extra care and 4% of the total succumb . The 4% not dieing will have chronic or extended disability.
The only Proof that a person has CV19 is the active positive test using the accepted accepted methods ..and this shows the 35M globally to date have been infected . 1M have died, 7.5M are undergoing treatment and 4% of those finished treatment have died. That some countries , especially the UK will not present statistics of cured ,dies not help, but the numbers globally are sufficient to ignore that error . That 4% has gradually come down from the very painful 11% in April ..due to two reasons . improved treatment and increased testing including those of non serious cases.

Now the number of people who have been exposed might be into the Billions . The numbers who might have got some symptoms ,but never developed into anything major might be 100s of millions and some of these might show some antibody responses from some fragments of RNA code.. but these all all speculative. ..And worse, there is no evidence that these persons will be immune if they get a proper hit of viruses.
Putting it in engineering terms, you would not base a space program on the informed speculation of these population surveys.