Brexit, for once some facts.

[oldgroaner]

From the Express
"
OUTRAGEOUS! World Trade Organisation could MEDDLE with Brexit deal agreed by UK and EU
BRUSSELS bureaucrats are not the only ones who may cause barriers to the UK’s attempts to sign a customs deal with the EU after Brexit, with a legal expert arguing the World Trade Organisation (WTO) could also meddle in efforts to create a viable trading relationship with the bloc.

Another escape route plugged!

 

[oldtom]

I have repeated a few times the reasons why half of the country voted for brexit. You don't like them, don't accept them but that does not make them any less important to those who voted to leave.

Sorry but I don't understand that piece. Did you make a mistake?

Tom

 

[oldgroaner]

The Mirror certainly are masters of the barbed apology after losing over a complaint to the IPSO by Katie Hopkins

https://screenshots.firefox.com/hRsdLShfil1GYxpo/www.thecanary.co.

Naughty!

And the comment from Laura Jane is quotable too

"Condescending on a level I genuinely aspire to"

 

[flecc]

Sorry but I don't understand that piece. Did you make a mistake?

Tom

Yes , he must have meant "those who voted to unleave".
.

 

[Woosh]

Sorry but I don't understand that piece. Did you make a mistake?

Tom

I should have written:

I have repeated a few times the reasons why half of the country voted for brexit. You, OG, don't like them, don't accept them but that does not make these reasons any less important to those who voted to leave.

 

[Woosh]

That is what is no doubt going to happen, and it will result in big trouble when the Public is disappointed,as inevitably they will be.

the troubles will all be for the conservatives, they may even split into remainer conservatives and the patriotic conservatives will join Ukip.
JC stands to win big if the eurosceptic tories decide to call for October GE.

 

[Woosh]

from the BBC, the brexit map:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-44257445

Each line is one economic sector, each station is one issue to solve.

Brilliant.

 

[flecc]

JC stands to win big if the eurosceptic tories decide to call for October GE.

I think Rees Mogg and co. know that, probably why they've agreed to cabinet policy consenting to a customs union during the transition period if necessary.

It's the first real sign of them fearing the consequences of their extreme view on Brexit.
.

 

[Woosh]

JRM & Co need the majority of conservative MPs for a vote of confidence on the PM and two third in Parliament for a new GE.
I think they know that they can't win in the HoL nor the HoC, they can only hold TM's feet to the fire, that's the extend of their power.

 

[oyster]

Yes , he must have meant "those who voted to unleave".
.

It sometimes feels as if there is an uncanny mapping between the two camps and the citizens of Besźel and Ul Qoma (The City and the City). Could we actually manage half the country remaining (or leaving) and unseeing the other half? Looks like a plan...

(I feel a blessed relief at unseeing Boris and JRM.)

Wonder how long the proportions would sit anywhere near 50:50?

 

[Woosh]

Wonder how long the proportions would sit anywhere near 50:50?

So far, from polls I reckon it's 52% remain, 48% brexit at the moment. demography and the realisation that brexit reveals a huge number of issues to be resolved (see the maps above) move about 250,000-500,000 voters from brexit to remain a year, so it will be 6 more years until we reach 60% remain 40% brexit.
If voting is made compulsory or if you allow Brits who live in the EU to vote, then 4 years from now.
There are two least damaging routes, economically and politically, one is to put brexit negotiation into limbo state up to 4 more years then reverse brexit in 2021-2023, the other is a clean brexit and getting out of NI. If the government does nothing, then brexit will not happen.

 

[daveboy]

So far, from polls I reckon it's 52% remain, 48% brexit at the moment. demography and the realisation that brexit reveals a huge number of issues to be resolved (see the maps above) move about 250,000-500,000 voters from brexit to remain a year, so it will be 6 more years until we reach 60% remain 40% brexit.
If voting is made compulsory or if you allow Brits who live in the EU to vote, then 4 years from now.

Well the polls were spot on last time......

 

[Woosh]

Well the polls were spot on last time......

natcen polls (polls of polls) were practically spot on. It predicted neck and neck in the last few days before the vote, the momentum that leave had would push it over the finish line.
I remembered the election night, Prof Curtice said at 10PM on BBC1 that the result will be extremely close and all bets were off. By 12PM, ITV's computer model predicted brexit would win.

 

[daveboy]

I agree that the closer we get to election night (and exit polls) the more accurate they are, but we are a long way off that.
The Tories lost their majority because of polls and Trump won despite them.

 

[oldgroaner]

natcen polls (polls of polls) were practically spot on. It predicted neck and neck in the last few days before the vote, the momentum that leave had would push it over the finish line.
I remembered the election night, Prof Curtice said at 10PM on BBC1 that the result will be extremely close and all bets were off. By 12PM, ITV's computer model predicted brexit would win.

And I predicted leave would win from my very first posts, and gave the reasons why too.

 

[Woosh]

brexit illustrates a big problem with referenda and democracy. Between June 2016 and June 2017, the brexit win at 52/48 became 50/50. Between June 2017 and June 2018, it's like 48/52, then 46/54 in 2019, 44/56 in 2020 etc.
The decision to leave is already seen as not repeatable for a generation, even leavers know that. So the promises to deliver a clean-ish brexit from both conservatives and labour looked right in the running up to last year GE will look wrong today. The longer JRM & Co delays calling for fresh GE, the bigger JC's gain. If TM lasts until 2022, we could have JC as PM and no brexit.

 

[flecc]

If voting is made compulsory or if you allow Brits who live in the EU to vote, then 4 years from now.

With both enacted it could be 3 years.

Add 16 and 17 year olds as well and it could be 2 years.
.

 

[oldgroaner]

Have any of you time to read a Fairy Story?
Here is a new one
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/710817/ECONOMIC_PARTNERSHIP_-_FINAL.pdf

All we need to make it work is a Magic Lamp

 

[oldtom]

In Kiev this evening, a football match ended 3-1 in favour of an EU side against the representatives of the country seeking to leave the EU. I am so glad that happened as we would never have heard the end of it if the British-based side had won. ¡vamos Madrid!

Tom

 

[oldtom]

I was reminded of this:

Things have come to a pretty pass

Our romance is growing flat

For you like this and the other

While I go for this and that

Goodness knows what the end will be

Oh, I don't know where I'm at

It looks as if we two will never be one

Something must be done

You say either and I say either

You say neither and I say neither

Either, either, neither, neither

Let's call the whole thing off

You like potato and I like potahto

You like tomato and I like tomahto

Potato, potahto, tomato, tomahto

Let's call the whole thing off

But, oh, if we call the whole thing off

Then we must part

And, oh, if we ever part, then that might break my heart

So if you like pajamas and I like pajahmas

I'll wear pajamas and give up pajahmas

For we know we need each other so we

Better call the whole thing off

Let's call the whole thing off

You say laughter and I say larfter

You say after and I say arfter

Laughter, larfter, after, arfter

Let's call the whole thing off

You like vanilla and I like vanella

You sarsaparilla, and I sarsapirella

Vanilla, vanella, chocolate, strawberry

Let's call the whole thing off

But, oh, if we call the whole thing off, then we must part

And, oh, if we ever part, then that might break my heart

So if you go for oysters and I go for ersters

I'll order oysters and cancel the ersters

For we know we need each other so we

Better call the calling off off

Let's call the whole thing off

I say father, and you say pater

I saw mother and you say mater

Pater, mater, uncle, auntie

Let's call the whole thing off

I like bananas and you like banahnahs

I say Havana and I get Havahnah

Bananas, banahnahs, Havana, Havahnah

Go your way, I'll go mine

So if I go for scallops and you go for lobsters

So, all right, no contest, we'll order lobseter

For we know we need each other so we

Better call the calling off off

Let's call the whole thing off

With thanks to George & Ira Gershwin

Tom