Brexit, for once some facts.

[tillson]

From the Telegraph
"
RAF 'needs more money and people' to combat Russia, air force chief warns on 100th anniversary

He's not wrong!

Size‎: ‎148,000 personnel (2018) + 3,200 aircraft;
Headquarters‎: ‎Moscow‎, Russian Federation
Current commander‎: ‎Colonel General Sergey ..

RAF
Size‎: ‎33,240 active personnel; 906 operational ...
Chief of the Air Staff‎: ‎Air Chief Marshal Sir Step...
Air Staff Offices‎: ‎Whitehall‎, London
Fighter‎: ‎Eurofighter Typhoon FGR4; Lockheed ...F15

"Never in the Field of Human Conflict has so MUCH been expected by so MANY
From so FEW"

Perhaps it would be a better idea NOT to pick a fight with them?

As Zlatan says, we have Trident, which is true. But that is all we have, either very little or the nuclear option which is a highly dangerous situation.

This is what troubles me about that bitch May. Regardless of what anyone says, I still have not seen any evidence of Russia's involvement in the Salisbury poisonings. No evidence, not one shred, has been presented to implicate Russia. My gut feeling is that Russia, or someone in high office was probably aware or directly involved, but without evidence, I have to put that prejudice aside. To not do so and to follow May's approach of initiating sanctions based on a hastily made conclusion, drawn prior to the completion of any investigation and with zero evidence to back it up is so dangerous it beggars belief.

Where does the idiot woman think this is going to end? We are seeing a tit for tat escalation of action by either side. Expulsions by the UK, a greater number of expulsions from Russia, EU & US stepping in and ratcheting up tensions..... Where does this end? What end point has Theresa May set herself? Where is the line in the sand, beyond which we say, Russia is too powerful for the UK to deal with? It saddens me to say this, but the UK military has been weakened to a point where we can't enter into conflicts such as the one we are currently witnessing. We have nothing to bridge the gap between sanctions and a nuclear option. Jeremy Corbyn is spot on, we have to enter into discussion and dialogue with Russia over the matter. It is the only course of action that will allow us to escape with any dignity. Theresa May is taking us on a course which will see us sat on the canvas with a bloody nose and completely humiliated, or worse.

 

[oldgroaner]

As Zlatan says, we have Trident, which is true. But that is all we have, either very little or the nuclear option which is a highly dangerous situation.

This is what troubles me about that bitch May. Regardless of what anyone says, I still have not seen any evidence of Russia's involvement in the Salisbury poisonings. No evidence, not one shred, has been presented to implicate Russia. My gut feeling is that Russia, or someone in high office was probably aware or directly involved, but without evidence, I have to put that prejudice aside. To not do so and to follow May's approach of initiating sanctions based on a hastily made conclusion, drawn prior to the completion of any investigation and with zero evidence to back it up is so dangerous it beggars belief.

Where does the idiot woman think this is going to end? We are seeing a tit for tat escalation of action by either side. Expulsions by the UK, a greater number of expulsions from Russia, EU & US stepping in and ratcheting up tensions..... Where does this end? What end point has Theresa May set herself? Where is the line in the sand, beyond which we say, Russia is too powerful for the UK to deal with? It saddens me to say this, but the UK military has been weakened to a point where we can't enter into conflicts such as the one we are currently witnessing. We have nothing to bridge the gap between sanctions and a nuclear option. Jeremy Corbyn is spot on, we have to enter into discussion and dialogue with Russia over the matter. It is the only course of action that will allow us to escape with any dignity. Theresa May is taking us on a course which will see us sat on the canvas with a bloody nose and completely humiliated, or worse.

And all because of the Ambitions of a power mad woman.

What will she do for an Encore?
Threaten them like the North Korean nut case does America?

 

[Zlatan]

A UK and Russia conflict reminds me of when Brian London fought Ali. After fight Carpenter interviewed London.
Who said...
" Well I really had him worried in the 4th round; he thought he,d killed me."

A conflict between us and Russia would be pointless. Dont think they could ever actually invade us, and a nuclear conflict would wipe us off face of earth and lead to destruction of Russia. ( unless their new defence system is 100% efficient)

On the poisoning.
EU's stance was rather sceptical at first also requesting proof prior to criticizing Russia.
Then May, along with a delegation from MI6, spoke to EU leaders. Following morning nearly all EU , and especially Tusk, were saying almost exactly same as May. Now I dont see May as a great negotiator, as she,s proved with Brexit, so exactly what was said to convince Tusk, Macron, etc etc. ???

 

[flecc]

Then May, along with a delegation from MI6, spoke to EU leaders. Following morning nearly all EU , and especially Tusk, were saying almost exactly same as May. Now I dont see May as a great negotiator, as she,s proved with Brexit, so exactly what was said to convince Tusk, Macron, etc etc. ???

Probably the need for solidarity, reminding them that if it was lacking it could encourage Russia to go further in relation to the Ukraine etc.
.

 

[Zlatan]

Probably the need for solidarity, reminding them that if it was lacking it could encourage Russia to go further in relation to the Ukraine etc.
.

I dont think they,d take that risk for a show of solidarity, especially with Brexit so fresh in their minds.Not just on opinions anyhow. I think there is a lot more to this story.
They could have shown that solidarity prior to May's visit. How did she convince them all ? ( apart from Junker who Tusk told to shut up)

 

[oldgroaner]

A UK and Russia conflict reminds me of when Brian London fought Ali. After fight Carpenter interviewed London.
Who said...
" Well I really had him worried in the 4th round; he thought he,d killed me."

A conflict between us and Russia would be pointless. Dont think they could ever actually invade us, and a nuclear conflict would wipe us off face of earth and lead to destruction of Russia. ( unless their new defence system is 100% efficient)

On the poisoning.
EU's stance was rather sceptical at first also requesting proof prior to criticizing Russia.
Then May, along with a delegation from MI6, spoke to EU leaders. Following morning nearly all EU , and especially Tusk, were saying almost exactly same as May. Now I dont see May as a great negotiator, as she,s proved with Brexit, so exactly what was said to convince Tusk, Macron, etc etc. ???

She no doubt pointed out that this was no time to lack a show of unity, and there may well have been other political factors.
One thing is for certain.
She played on their fears and who is to say any "Evidence" offered wasn't fabricated?
Or what "Horse Trading" took place?

 

[tillson]

On the poisoning.
EU's stance was rather sceptical at first also requesting proof prior to criticizing Russia.
Then May, along with a delegation from MI6, spoke to EU leaders. Following morning nearly all EU , and especially Tusk, were saying almost exactly same as May. Now I dont see May as a great negotiator, as she,s proved with Brexit, so exactly what was said to convince Tusk, Macron, etc etc. ???

I don't know what was said and I wouldn't rule out that she presented overwhelming evidence that left them in no doubt. But, I think that is highly unlikely.

If the evidence was available, why not make it public? If it is in the national interest, in terms of security, not to make the evidence public why make the very public accusation that Russia are responsible? For example, if we have information from a spy within Russia that we don't want to compromise, surely the UK would have kept quiet and blamed some other substance or organisation. Then we could covertly take measures against Russia. But to go public, bang the drum and shout it from the roof tops is going to compromise any secret tactic we may posses. That is why I don't think there is any secret information, tactic or evidence. From the way that this has been handled, if there was evidence, we would be hearing about it all the time. This is just May shooting from the hip, floundering in a soup of her own incompetence and living up to my expectations of her ability.

I must admit, it is ironic that at a time she is breaking away, going it alone and all of the other things, at the first hint of trouble, she is dragging her unsightly carcass around Europe trying to join forces and forge relationships in a show of unity.

 

[oldgroaner]

I dont think they,d take that risk for a show of solidarity, especially with Brexit so fresh in their minds.Not just on opinions anyhow. I think there is a lot more to this story.
They could have shown that solidarity prior to May's visit. How did she convince them all ? ( apart from Junker who Tusk told to shut up)

Like Security agreements she threatened to duck out of perhaps?
there is indeed a lot more to this story and much of it has nothing to do with Russia.
And let's be honest, all the countries she recruited will have their own problems with Russian and of course their own Spies in Russia, and regard this as a Golden opportunity for both a little payback, and more pertinently to get someone else (US) to take the Blame and catch the main crap of Russian response.
At worse the response from Russia against them will be far less than if they had initiated the action.
After all it it much easier for them to duck the blame and point at us.
The can always claim "They blackmailed us into it with dodgy evidence!"

 

[flecc]

I think there is a lot more to this story.

There is indeed. Make no mistake, this is all about the Crimea and the disputed eastern industrial region of the Ukraine.

The Russian move on the Crimea and support for the eastern confliuct have left the West helpless and frustrated, knowing they could do nothing at all about either other than rather ineffective sanctions.

But they could wait for an opportunity to retaliate in a different way, and that's now arrived. I don't think anyone gives a damn whether Russia is behind the poisoning or not, this is just an opportunity to condemn Russia once again but in a more effective way.

That's because such a poisoning could happen in any country at any time so all can feel threatened, unlike the Crimea etc which for most countries has no possible effect on them.

Little wonder Russia suspects us of staging it.
.

 

[Zlatan]

I don't know what was said and I wouldn't rule out that she presented overwhelming evidence that left them in no doubt. But, I think that is highly unlikely.

If the evidence was available, why not make it public? If it is in the national interest, in terms of security, not to make the evidence public why make the very public accusation that Russia are responsible? For example, if we have information from a spy within Russia that we don't want to compromise, surely the UK would have kept quiet and blamed some other substance or organisation. Then we could covertly take measures against Russia. But to go public, bang the drum and shout it from the roof tops is going to compromise any secret tactic we may posses. That is why I don't think there is any secret information, tactic or evidence. From the way that this has been handled, if there was evidence, we would be hearing about it all the time. This is just May shooting from the hip, floundering in a soup of her own incompetence and living up to my expectations of her ability.

I must admit, it is ironic that at a time she is breaking away, going it alone and all of the other things, at the first hint of trouble, she is dragging her unsightly carcass around Europe trying to join forces and forge relationships in a show of unity.

I,d totally agree with that were it not for Canada, Australia and NZ also expelling diplomats and wording accusation identical to UK's.
I know some on here dont accept the PI into Litvinenco case but I,d guess 90% of folk will accept its findings, once they are accepted Russia has " previous".
Seems rather coincidental that Ricin ( umbrella) ,Polonium 210 ( Litvinenco) and now Novichok have all been used. Its almost saying," we have these weapons and are willing to use them"
I really think they have all been demonstrations rather than assassinations ( attempts)

 

[oldgroaner]

I really think they have all been demonstrations rather than assassinations ( attempts)

In the case of Novichok it was bit of a Damp Squib considering the claims made for it!

 

[flecc]

Seems rather coincidental that Ricin ( umbrella) ,Polonium 210 ( Litvinenco) and now Novichok have all been used.

But as I posted previously, the USSR research and cold war effort including manufacturing was carried out in all the satellites, not only Russia. That policy of geographc dispersion was deliberate for strategic reasons, since it made knockout blows by an enemy impossible.

In support of that is your mention of the Ricin umbrella killing, which was carried out by Bulgaria, not Russia.

And the Novichok research was in Uzbekistan, not Russia.
.

 

[Zlatan]

According to wiki..
"Both assassination attempts are believed to have been organized by the Bulgarian Secret Service of the time of the Cold War with the assistance of the KGB.[1]"
( article sspeaking about killings in London and Paris by Ricin via umbrella)

One of scenarios I read on another forum ...
Since Novichok is a binary agent.(ie made of 2 parts which can be mixed nearer time of use to make transport safer and harder to detect)
Perhaps a part administered to either party , knowing there would be contact between the two. This would reduce agents effectiveness and perhaps means individuals are suffering effects from only one half of agent. ??
Would explain agents apparent " damp squib" ( OG 's word)
and fact that Yulia appears to be recovering???

 

[flecc]

According to wiki..
"Both assassination attempts are believed to have been organized by the Bulgarian Secret Service of the time of the Cold War with the assistance of the KGB.[1]"

That's somewhat misleading, since all the satellites had local KGB as part of their secret service and some kept the KGB after the breakup of the USSR. In Belarus it's still called the KGB and in Uzbekistan it remains identical except for the name change to the National Security Service, aka SNB.
.

 

[Zlatan]

That's somewhat misleading, since all the satellites had local KGB as part of their secret service and some kept the KGB after the breakup of the USSR. In Belarus it's still called the KGB and in Uzbekistan it remains identical except for the name change to the National Security Service, aka SNB.
.

From the same article.

"Russian KGB defectors including Oleg Kalugin and Oleg Gordievsky have confirmed that the KGB arranged the murder,[11]"

Perhaps ambiguous but why would Russian defectors. spill beans on Bulgarian KGB.?

 

[flecc]

Perhaps ambiguous but why would Russian defectors. spill beans on Bulgarian KGB.?

Why not, each had their own KGB and rivalry and disagreements would not be surprising,

But apart from anything else, I don't trust any Western account of such incidents or any Russian account of Western involvements. They both lie at will to suit their own purposes.
.

 

[oldgroaner]

According to wiki..
"Both assassination attempts are believed to have been organized by the Bulgarian Secret Service of the time of the Cold War with the assistance of the KGB.[1]"
( article sspeaking about killings in London and Paris by Ricin via umbrella)

One of scenarios I read on another forum ...
Since Novichok is a binary agent.(ie made of 2 parts which can be mixed nearer time of use to make transport safer and harder to detect)
Perhaps a part administered to either party , knowing there would be contact between the two. This would reduce agents effectiveness and perhaps means individuals are suffering effects from only one half of agent. ??
Would explain agents apparent " damp squib" ( OG 's word)
and fact that Yulia appears to be recovering???

The problem with that theory is the notion that contact between the two agents would be enough to trigger the reaction, and if so, why would it not affect both contacts equally?
Previously releaased informatio suggested that the mixing of the two parts could be done "in a garage" remember, suggesting a mechanical mixing required to initiate the reaction.

 

[Zlatan]

The problem with that theory is the notion that contact between the two agents would be enough to trigger the reaction, and if so, why would it not affect both contacts equally?
Previously releaased informatio suggested that the mixing of the two parts could be done "in a garage" remember, suggesting a mechanical mixing required to initiate the reaction.

??? Ask a chemist OG...My area of assumed knowledge is IHT laws.

Flecc
I know assumption is mother of most .#£#£ ups but I,d always assumed it was common knowledge that although the umbrella originated in Bulgaria the Russian ( then USSR) KGB were behind it. The killer was a Dane trained in USSR ???

 

[Danidl]

I don't know what was said and I wouldn't rule out that she presented overwhelming evidence that left them in no doubt. But, I think that is highly unlikely.

If the evidence was available, why not make it public? If it is in the national interest, in terms of security, not to make the evidence public why make the very public accusation that Russia are responsible? For example, if we have information from a spy within Russia that we don't want to compromise, surely the UK would have kept quiet and blamed some other substance or organisation. Then we could covertly take measures against Russia. But to go public, bang the drum and shout it from the roof tops is going to compromise any secret tactic we may posses. That is why I don't think there is any secret information, tactic or evidence. From the way that this has been handled, if there was evidence, we would be hearing about it all the time. This is just May shooting from the hip, floundering in a soup of her own incompetence and living up to my expectations of her ability.

I must admit, it is ironic that at a time she is breaking away, going it alone and all of the other things, at the first hint of trouble, she is dragging her unsightly carcass around Europe trying to join forces and forge relationships in a show of unity.

No evidence that would support a jury conviction of beyong all reasonable doubt is or is likely to be forthcoming...it would be very hard to get such in any event. However there is circumstantial evidence , certainly the type which any police force would have used to bring someone in for questioning...
Had the suspect threatened the victim before ?
Had he the means ?
Had he the opportunity?
Was there a potential upside for the suspect at this time... ?
Could other people have done it?
Was it done by someone else to curry favouritism from the suspect? ... A la Thomas a Becket.
Was it done by another Russian faction to embarrass the leadership?
Was it intended as a provocative gesture?
The remainder of the EU are not all eejits and they will have access to signal intel and gossip from their own sources . In particular the Germans and the Poles very likely have exploitable links. I would not bet against deniable official Russian involvement.

 

[Danidl]

??? Ask a chemist OG...My area of assumed knowledge is IHT laws.

Flecc
I know assumption is mother of most .#£#£ ups but I,d always assumed it was common knowledge that although the umbrella originated in Bulgaria the Russian ( then USSR) KGB were behind it. The killer was a Dane trained in USSR ???

I can construct a simple scenario where by it could be done.. smear the door handle with reagent 1. .. baby wipe 1. Smear the handle then with a barrier ... Olive oil , butter , grease. Baby wipe 2 then smear the handle with baby wipe 3. .. just ensure that you leave the baby wipes in different pockets...