Brexit, for once some facts.

Woosh

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May 19, 2012
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I think the NI border issue is the least difficult problem with brexit. Whichever way you look at it, there will be likely a deal at the end of the transition period. The least would involve tariff free on a wide range of goods, most likely to include agri-foods.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,157
30,573
I think the NI border issue is the least difficult problem with brexit.
Only in the EU relationship sense, but not with the DUP involved since they won't accept any factor within a deal that in the slightest way differentiates N.I. from the rest of the UK.

As a general rule negotiating anything with the DUP is from very difficult to near impossible.
.
 

Kudoscycles

Official Trade Member
Apr 15, 2011
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Spike Milligan was in many ways a Prophet, he saw this Government coming!


Way to go, spike!
My wife worked for Coutts and Co and had reason to ring Spike up......she asked him if he could identify himself.....there was a 5 minute pause,he came back on the phone...'I have had a long look in the mirror and its definitely me'!!!!
KudosDave
 

Kudoscycles

Official Trade Member
Apr 15, 2011
5,566
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www.kudoscycles.com
Only in the EU relationship sense, but not with the DUP involved since they won't accept any factor within a deal that in the slightest way differentiates N.I. from the rest of the UK.

As a general rule negotiating anything with the DUP is from very difficult to near impossible.
.
Unless you are giving them money!....but even that seems very short term
KudosDave
 

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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Reading and hearing Corbyn's speech I really can't see what he hopes to achieve that is worth the argument.
Why doesn't he come out with the obvious thing to do?
cancel Brexit.
 
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,157
30,573
Reading and hearing Corbyn's speech I really can't see what he hopes to achieve that is worth the argument.
Why doesn't he come out with the obvious thing to do?
cancel Brexit.
Because such a high proportion of Labour voters voted for Brexit and are often the most anti-EU.

It would be electoral suicide for him to say no Brexit (but good news for UKIP), so he has to make the best of a bad situation.
.
 

Zlatan

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 26, 2016
8,086
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Because such a high proportion of Labour voters voted for Brexit and are often the most anti-EU.

It would be electoral suicide for him to say no Brexit (but good news for UKIP), so he has to make the best of a bad situation.
.
Have they fitted comfy seats on Corbyn's fence...seems to be gathering more to support on it...lets hope it falls in right direction when it collapses..
Your argument Flecc is rather self defeating...if there is enough support to reverse Brexit there is enough to elect Corbyn...UKIP have lost any credibility they had. I don't think they affect anything now, its just like a yapping dog down street...folk just ignore it..
Thanks for thoughts OG...op postponed by a,week...but all going well .
 
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Woosh

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Have they fitted comfy seats on Corbyn's fence...seems to be gathering more to support on it...lets hope it falls in right direction when it collapses..
Your argument Flecc is rather self defeating...if there is enough support to reverse Brexit there is enough to elect Corbyn...UKIP have lost any credibility they had. I don't think they affect anything now, its just like a yapping dog down street...folk just ignore it..
Thanks for thoughts OG...op postponed by a,week...but all going well .
the arithmetic is awkward for both Labour and the Conservatives. Most tory party members are brexiters while their MPs and non-member supporters are more remainers than brexiters, Most labour members and MPs are remainers but a lot if not the majority of non-member labour voters are brexiters.
If JC sits too close to remainers, he'll lose a lot of votes which will switch to UKIP.
JC's roadmap is good and straightforward because he does not put up any red line.
He'll agree with the EU for the transition period, then negotiate a Turkey+++ or EFTA membership at the end of the transition.
 
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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Your argument Flecc is rather self defeating...if there is enough support to reverse Brexit there is enough to elect Corbyn...UKIP have lost any credibility they had. .
Two different issues, Brexit yes/no is still marginal, but there probably is enough public support to elect Corbyn now. But only if he hangs on to the majority of Labour Brexiters. As I said and there's no question about it. If Corbyn abandons Brexit a huge proportion of his labour voters will abandon him.

And the large number of them who couldn't bring themselves to vote Tory will go to UKIP regardless of credibility, just to support Brexit. There's no other choice since the LibDems are pro Remain.
.
 
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Woosh

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but there probably is enough public support to elect Corbyn now.
he may still be some way off an absolute majority and will have to rely on the SNP to form a new government.
UKIP's only card is to woo labour's brexiters.
 
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Zlatan

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Nov 26, 2016
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the arithmetic is awkward for both Labour and the Conservatives. Most tory party members are brexiters while their MPs and non-member supporters are more remainers than brexiters, Most labour members and MPs are remainers but a lot if not the majority of non-member labour voters are brexiters.
If JC sits too close to remainers, he'll lose a lot of votes which will switch to UKIP.
JC's roadmap is good and straightforward because he does not put up any red line.
He'll agree with the EU for the transition period, then negotiate a Turkey+++ or EFTA membership at the end of the transition.
I agree Corbyn will negotiate a Turkey...
 
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Woosh

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good read this snowy morning:

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/brexit-la-la-land-just-gets-madder-and-madder-1.3404960

quote:

The British government is betting that once the United Kingdom has actually left the bloc it will all get a lot easier and that all sides of the increasingly bitter debate will then be more willing to accept compromise. Or perhaps May wants to deliver Brexit and then leave the compromising to someone else.

Some things cannot involve compromise. The Border is one of them: there either is a Border or there isn’t. Being out of the customs union necessitates a Border. It is as simple as that. It will be the ultimate irony if the Irish Border means the only thing ultimately delivered is Bino. Perhaps, given the context, it should be relabelled Provisional Brexit.

end quote.
 
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oldtom

Esteemed Pedelecer
Interesting analogy from ex-Liar Fox aide:

Ex-Liam Fox aide: Leaving EU is like swapping three-course dinner for crisps
Martin Donnelly says there’s ‘no evidence of untapped global markets waiting to welcome UK companies.’

Sir Martin Donnelly, ex-Head of Liam Fox's International Trade Department on Brexit, share his thoughts on the Government's current vision of Brexit:

Martin Donnelly … on Global Britain: “There is a marked lack of evidence that leaving the EU customs union and single market will lead to greater U.K. trade with third countries.”

On cutting trade deals: “The EU as a trade negotiator has the economic weight to deal with China and the U.S. as trade equals. The U.K. does not.”

On the impact of Brexit: “For the U.K. to give up existing access both to the EU single market, and to the preferential trade agreements which the EU has in place with over 50 countries, in exchange for its own bilateral trade deals at some future date, is rather like rejecting a three course meal now in favor of the promise of a packet of crisps later.”

On ‘smart’ border checks: “Technology cannot offer a frictionless solution to border controls.”

On leaving the single market: “Having our cake and eating it is not an option in the real world; ‘frictionless trade’ is a phrase without legal content.”

On the task ahead: “To provide U.K. business with guarantees of full and equal access to the single market, without equal acceptance of EU regulatory structures would require not so much a skilled negotiating team, as a fairy godmother specialized in trade law.”

On the future: “Given the negative consequences of leaving, and the lack of any significant offsetting advantages, I believe it is likely the U.K. will seek to return to full membership of the EU single market in due course. But significant damage to employment, the structure of the economy and the competitiveness of U.K. firms can be expected in the meantime.”


Are we now seeing the reason why Donnelly resigned or is it just bitchiness?

Tom
 
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anotherkiwi

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jan 26, 2015
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Interesting analogy from ex-Liar Fox aide:

Ex-Liam Fox aide: Leaving EU is like swapping three-course dinner for crisps
Martin Donnelly says there’s ‘no evidence of untapped global markets waiting to welcome UK companies.’

Sir Martin Donnelly, ex-Head of Liam Fox's International Trade Department on Brexit, share his thoughts on the Government's current vision of Brexit:

Martin Donnelly … on Global Britain: “There is a marked lack of evidence that leaving the EU customs union and single market will lead to greater U.K. trade with third countries.”

On cutting trade deals: “The EU as a trade negotiator has the economic weight to deal with China and the U.S. as trade equals. The U.K. does not.”

On the impact of Brexit: “For the U.K. to give up existing access both to the EU single market, and to the preferential trade agreements which the EU has in place with over 50 countries, in exchange for its own bilateral trade deals at some future date, is rather like rejecting a three course meal now in favor of the promise of a packet of crisps later.”

On ‘smart’ border checks: “Technology cannot offer a frictionless solution to border controls.”

On leaving the single market: “Having our cake and eating it is not an option in the real world; ‘frictionless trade’ is a phrase without legal content.”

On the task ahead: “To provide U.K. business with guarantees of full and equal access to the single market, without equal acceptance of EU regulatory structures would require not so much a skilled negotiating team, as a fairy godmother specialized in trade law.”

On the future: “Given the negative consequences of leaving, and the lack of any significant offsetting advantages, I believe it is likely the U.K. will seek to return to full membership of the EU single market in due course. But significant damage to employment, the structure of the economy and the competitiveness of U.K. firms can be expected in the meantime.”


Are we now seeing the reason why Donnelly resigned or is it just bitchiness?

Tom
He can't say that! Those are facts...

Maybe the hidden strategy is to join the Euro zone? Knowing that the pleb would be up in arms against that, crashing out miserably is a required passage before asking to enter again but this time for the whole nine yards?
 
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Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
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That would be rational.

We're the UK, we don't do rational.
.
We're the UK, we don't even trust our own experts and please, don't tell us what we can do or can't.
I watched the BBC reporter asking passers-by in Coventry after JC's speech for what they think of his speech.
May be the reporter sought them out, they could not understand why we have not yet left.
That's before anyone linking the CU to border controls and jobs.
 
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