Brexit, for once some facts.

Danidl

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Sep 29, 2016
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Here is some logic, as previously predicted

http://www.pedelecs.co.uk/forum/threads/brexit-for-once-some-facts.24369/reply?quote=372420

Looks like any bill due, if a deal is struck, will be paid off in dribs and drabs, with the UK's percentage of receivables from EIB loans effectively the EU will be paying its own bill and they will be returning our stake money too.
It is important to look at the order in which the three items of lasts weeks "agreement to proceed " were couched. Money was listed as item 3, it always was.. why? because in the EU mindset it was and is the least important. The rights of the 560 million EU citizens, was primary, the rights of the 5.5million Irish on the island of Ireland, and particularly the 4million in RoI was secondary.

What seems to be continually voiced by those of a leaving mindset in the UK is that its all about either money or trade. That immigration was a driver for the referendum is conviently forgotten. That is be totally disrespectful of the European mindset, which has put its priorities on stability and cooperation.
Much of the leaver based discussion is to focus on subsets of specific arrangements that the EU has with third parties and to cherry pick those aspects which are in their view favourable and to ignore the other parts of those same agreements.
As flecc has said, and no specific quotation is necessary, that the EU from the getgo has stated that any arrangement which will subsequently be made with the UK will be less favourable in terms of access to the EU than that which currently exists... That is axiomatic. In a very real sense it was articulated just last week when senior EU personnel stated unequivocally that they were standing behind Ireland, as it was the member remaining...
 
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Woosh

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May 19, 2012
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As flecc has said, and no specific quotation is necessary, that the EU from the getgo has stated that any arrangement which will subsequently be made with the UK will be less favourable in terms of access to the EU than that which currently exists.
agreed.
People should pay attention to what Mr Juncker said, that is we are going to manage divergence. We start with 100% alignment, if we diverge, the deal must reflect that in some way. So Keir Starmer is correct, we must lockstep with the EU standards if we are going to have a better deal than Canada or Japan.
Hopefully, the transition period will test the hard brexiters on how well they do. They know that their choice is strictly limited, they promise their supporters an easy deal. When the deal comes, it will be difficult for them to vote the deal down and even if they do that, labour won't let them win. If they dethrone TM now, they will split the party and force early GE in which they may win even fewer seats. Their only hope is for TM to give up and hand over to one of theirs. It's not going to happen now that the soft brexiters know that TM will do a deal with the EU.
 
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shemozzle999

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 28, 2009
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It is important to look at the order in which the three items of lasts weeks "agreement to proceed " were couched. Money was listed as item 3, it always was.. why? because in the EU mindset it was and is the least important. The rights of the 560 million EU citizens, was primary, the rights of the 5.5million Irish on the island of Ireland, and particularly the 4million in RoI was secondary.

What seems to be continually voiced by those of a leaving mindset in the UK is that its all about either money or trade. That immigration was a driver for the referendum is conviently forgotten. That is be totally disrespectful of the European mindset, which has put its priorities on stability and cooperation.
Much of the leaver based discussion is to focus on subsets of specific arrangements that the EU has with third parties and to cherry pick those aspects which are in their view favourable and to ignore the other parts of those same agreements.
As flecc has said, and no specific quotation is necessary, that the EU from the getgo has stated that any arrangement which will subsequently be made with the UK will be less favourable in terms of access to the EU than that which currently exists... That is axiomatic. In a very real sense it was articulated just last week when senior EU personnel stated unequivocally that they were standing behind Ireland, as it was the member remaining...
It appears Danidl you inhabit the same space as flecc.
 

shemozzle999

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 28, 2009
2,826
686
That would be difficult, Danidl lives in the RoI and I live in South London!

I do have London-Irish friends though. :)
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But neither of you can answer my request for a source only hop back into your parallel universe and startup a completely new topic that has nothing to do with what I asked:rolleyes:
 
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oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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So no source, followed by something I have not said - who is in this cloud cuckoo land?
your statement was true as far as it went

"The only tangible asset they can withhold would be the value of our EIB shareholding - about £38 billion - predict this will be near the exit fee they ask for.,

How do we win by paying for what by your own admission is already our shareholding?
By your logic shouldn't they be paying that to us, not the other way round?

Have you got "we" and "they" mixed up?
 
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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But neither of you can answer my request for a source only hop back into your parallel universe and startup a completely new topic that has nothing to do with what I asked:rolleyes:
Now you are just being silly. I'm sure you know as well as most of us that the EU has clearly stated from the outset that we cannot leave with a better deal than we have already. As Danidl and I have stated no link is necessary for such a widely known fact, you might as well ask for link to the evidence that the earth is round and not flat.

I can well understand your frustration at the fact that leavers have repeatedy lost what they want at every stage of trying to leave the EU, but perverse requests for links and wearing blinkers isn't the answer.

Being realistic is, and being realistic by looking at all the facts to date is not living in a parallel universe.
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oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
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If we are "Converging" with the EU the fun will start when they go for the Tax Dodging offshore rackets.
 
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Danidl

Esteemed Pedelecer
Sep 29, 2016
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It appears Danidl you inhabit the same space as flecc.
From my earlier studies , as a physicist , that is only possible if we have different spins... Which seems about right.
If your question to me is where can I reference that the deal with the EU \ UK will be less favourable... The following report in the telegraph detailing a talk by Mr Barnier....recently .
The phrase "benefits of the single market " should be a clear indication....

The chief negotiator said the EU might judge some UK rules as “equivalent” to EU passporting rights but ruled out the City of London having access to EU financial markets under the same passporting deal as now.


Mr Barnier told the audience at the Centre for European Reform: “Those who claim that the UK should pick parts of the single market must stop this contradiction. The single market is a package, with four indivisible freedoms, common rules, institutions, and enforcement structures.

“The UK knows these rules very well, like the back of its hand. It has contributed to defining them over the last 44 years with a certain degree of influence. We took note of the UK decisions to end free movement of people and this means clearly that the UK will lose the benefits of the single market.

“This is a legal reality; the EU does not want to punish, it simply draws the logical consequence of the UK decision to take back control.”



As well as ruling out a carve-out for the financial sector, Mr Barnier appeared to suggest there could be no special deal for the UK's car manufacturers to stay in the single market, as proposed by industry bodies.


In the same speech the senior EU official also expressed disappointment at what he suggested as a fixation in some British circles on "no deal" being a viable option for the UK.

"We have a shared history and this started long before the last 44 years. This is why the no deal is not our scenario, even though we will be ready for it," he said.


"I regret that this ‘no deal’ option comes up so often in the UK public debate. Only those who want to ignore the current benefits of EU membership can say that no deal would be a positive result."

Liberal Democrat leader Vince Cable said the decision was a "major blow" to the Government's Brexit plans.

“Loss of this access risks blowing a hole in the budget at a time when our public services are already seriously underfunded," he said.


“All of this could be avoided if the government chose to stay in the single market.

“Instead ministers seem intent on killing the golden goose, by choosing an extreme form of Brexit that will seriously damage the financial sector
 
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oldtom

Esteemed Pedelecer
I think you're all being too hard on 'shemozzle999'! As a complete outsider, it's hardly surprising that he may hold views on the human race which may differ from those of us living on planet Earth.

It is perfectly possible that his brain simply does not register the nuances of the written word and that can lead to disbelief and distrust of a species alien to him.

Some of you may find it odd that someone demands to be presented with evidence of something which has occurred, or is likely to occur, when that person supports a move, almost certain to bring about the greatest peacetime disaster ever to befall the UK when there was absolutely no proof......ever!.....to suggest there is any benefit in so doing.

So long as he can enjoy the festive season on planet Zog or wherever he calls home, then we need not worry ourselves about his health and state of mind, despite his apparent distrust of some other contributors here.

Tom
 

oldgroaner

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 15, 2015
23,461
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flecc said:
Premature. You're forgetting that we will be paying annually for trade access, just like Norway for example.

And you were wrong on that earlier post in saying it looks like a hard Brexit. A decidely soft one has just been indicated by the negotiations.
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Must have missed that new news can you provide me with a links to an official statement.

Also a bit premature on your second paragraph.

Here is your answer

Try this and explain how this does NOT mean there will be a "Soft" Brexit
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/joint_report.pdf
 
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oldtom

Esteemed Pedelecer
It seems the not so 'Independent' news sheet, (I'm being kind there!), are standing by, readying a headline which heaps praise on our imbecilic Foreign Secretary for his humanitarian intervention with the Iranians.

I get the feeling that they desperately want to give the fool some credibility that he really doesn't deserve. If Sadiq Khan hadn't opted to look after the citizens of the capital city, a place he really does care deeply about, he would undoubtedly be the best choice of Foreign Secretary this country could select. Of course, that can only ever come about with a Labour government in power and Khan returning to a parliamentary seat and giving up his Mayorship.

Khan's humility and commitment to equality and fairness have been recognised far and wide. Anyone who has seen his reception in both India and Pakistan must realise that we have an immense talent in the field of international relations and diplomacy in this humble man.

The British government has never dealt well with the peoples whose countries we raped in our quest for world domination, building the biggest, far-flung empire the world had ever seen. There remains much resentment among peoples around the globe because of our attitude towards those people forced into servitude by their British masters both before and after the abolition of slavery.

'Brexit' is hardly the way to assuage those people's fears that they have been simply cut loose by the British government after we have exhausted their land of all that is useful to us. Khan has the history, the knowledge and the culture to win over those people and the UK today needs friends around the globe more than ever before.

Is there anyone who actually believes that Israel, Saudi Arabia and the USA are our friends?

This is what 'The Independent' has to say today:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nazanin-zaghari-ratcliffe-boris-johnson-visit-iran-jailed-richard-uk-mother-a8102201.html

Tom
 
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,203
30,604
Perhaps you might clearly ask the question. I did make the assumption that it referred to less access to EU and answered accordingly, .. but if your question was about something else?
I think it may have been my earlier mention of having to pay for trade access like Norway.

Of course he knows there is no link for that logical assumption, hence my saying his request is perverse.

In that sense I was occupying a different space time co-ordinate and would have sent him that future link. Unfortunately the internet is far too slow and unable to keep up with the speed of my foresight so the link hasn't appeared yet.
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