I trust you - on that at least.
Well, that didn't last long - the boredom bit's OK but as I recall Germany has been running a surplus for quite a while.
Just checked my facts. This from New York.
If that’s the case, why did I start off by saying that Germany’s trade surplus is a problem? Last year, Germany’s global trade surplus surpassed that of China for the first time. Together, Germany and China’s surpluses create dangerous forces in the global economy. In normal times, money should flow, relatively freely, from nation to nation. As a general rule, people save money in banks, and the banks lend that money to businesses, which use it to invest in new factories, services, and government bonds. Some nations have more money saved than they do businesses that deserve investment; the extra money goes to some other nation with more promising businesses. In theoretical models, these flows of money are self-correcting. If one nation attracts too much investment or another attracts too little, then their exchange rates will adjust, and the money will stop flowing from the cash-rich nation to the investment-rich one.
With Germany, this hasn’t happened. There is a growing hoard of cash piling up because Germans tend to save a lot, as does their government. While Germany has strong industries, it doesn’t have the Internet, biotech, and robotics hubs that make the U.S. so attractive to foreign investors. Germany also greatly benefitted from the creation of the eurozone, which increased exports of German goods to other European countries. The 2008 financial crisis was caused, in no small part, by a similar
amassing of cash, particularly in China. Back then, China had so much money looking for a place to invest that it started pouring into U.S. real estate and other ill-fated investments. This helped create the enormous housing bubble, which, when it burst, left us in crisis. It’s not clear exactly what the long-term impact of Germany’s cash hoarding will be. But the longer it builds and the bigger it gets, the more likely that it will erupt in some ugly and damaging way. Two prominent European think tanks
found that more than two-thirds of economists surveyed believe that German surpluses are “a threat to the Eurozone economy.” The Obama Administration thought so,
too.
The solution to Germany’s surplus has nothing to do with trade deals or the particular deal-making skills of government officials, as Trump would suggest. Rather, it’s a difficult and challenging dilemma that will likely have to be resolved by the European Central Bank. Germany needs a stronger euro, so that its citizens can buy more goods from abroad and export less, reducing its surpluses. But a stronger euro would be disastrous for Greece, Portugal, Italy, and other poorer members of the eurozone, which need a weaker currency to encourage exports and discourage consumer spending. This would be made easier by a political and fiscal union like the one in the United States. Our central and state governments continuously handle the disparate economies within our borders. We take tax money from high-growth areas and redistribute it to low-growth ones. Silicon Valley, in effect, subsidizes Mississippi. (
Interestingly, blue states generally subsidize red ones.)
Germany could also spend more of its money on infrastructure or public projects of some kind. If Germany doesn’t take steps to reduce its trade surplus, at some point, if past patterns predict the future, there could be the discovery of a bubble in Germany or somewhere else in the eurozone, a sudden market panic, and a collapse of confidence, leading to stock-market collapse and recession. It could rend the eurozone apart. Such a crisis might be a short-term boon for the United States, as investors seek its safety, but it would also cause consternation in the global economy. It used to be assumed that the U.S. leadership considered global stability as a form of self-interest. A sudden collapse of Germany’s surplus could lead to the type of economic disaster that often spurs political instability, a lack of global coöperation, and a turning toward ugly forms of nationalism.