What will be the next major step forward

[electric.mike]

When I was on the forum years ago the next big thing being talked about was the Fuel Cell that doesn’t look to have happened.

What will be the next major step forward,will it be in Ebike technology or are we waiting for the government to make cycling even safer with more off road lanes with a more direct rout to places.

In Grimsby I see less Ebikes than I did 5 years ago yet technology has improved bikes look more normal and range has increased,there are still modern bikes available at prices not much more than 5 years ago and I understand Ebike sales are fairly strong but i dont see them here.

 

[Gubbins]

Battery wise I read recently read on something new...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2637723/Super-charging-Breakthrough-battery-technology-fully-charge-cellphone-minutes.html
Sorry if it'd been covered already.

 

[flecc]

When I was on the forum years ago the next big thing being talked about was the Fuel Cell that doesn’t look to have happened.

What will be the next major step forward,will it be in Ebike technology or are we waiting for the government to make cycling even safer with more off road lanes with a more direct rout to places.

In Grimsby I see less Ebikes than I did 5 years ago yet technology has improved bikes look more normal and range has increased,there are still modern bikes available at prices not much more than 5 years ago and I understand Ebike sales are fairly strong but i dont see them here.

I'm confident there's unlikely to be a big advance, in truth batteries advance at a snails pace over time despite numerous announcements from institutions hoping to get funds. One day there might be agreement on what an e-bike constitutes in terms of layout, but there's no sign of that happening soon.

Like you I remember from our polls that Grimsby used to be one of the e-bike hotspots years ago, but it's a sad fact that e-bike adoption often has little staying power for many people. That's why increased sales brings so little gain overall in the e-bike population. In my area from a very low level around seven years ago they seem to have all but disappeared now, despite the opening of a dedicated largish e-bike dealer only a few miles south at Coulsdon.

Every year 2 million ordinary bikes are sold in the UK, so on the basis that they last at least 10 years, our roads should be clogged with over 20 million cyclists. But of course most bikes are used only a couple of times or so and then dumped at the back of garages or in gardens. I fear that also happens to a high proportion of all e-bikes sold
.

 

[trex]

there is a clearly visible market in cheap sustenable transport which e-bikes can have a big role but I fear that the current participation of bike shops concentrates mainly on expensive bikes (£1500 and more) and hinders its progress. The next big improvement is a folding e-bike that can unfold in one second, do 5,000 miles without necessitating any maintenance, all electrics is plug and play, sealed for life and has as little wiring as possible and costs £700 or less. Then the supermarkets may be willing to sell it.

 

[JohnCade]

I
Every year 2 million ordinary bikes are sold in the UK, so on the basis that they last at least 10 years, our roads should be clogged with over 20 million cyclists. But of course most bikes are used only a couple of times or so and then dumped at the back of garages or in gardens. I fear that also happens to a high proportion of all e-bikes sold
.

Is it mainly because many e bike buyers have too great an expectation of what the bikes can do and think they are going to be whisked around on electric motor bikes? Or is perhaps that people don't feel safe on any kind of bike mixing it with traffic as we do in this country, and many don't want to risk it.

 

[flecc]

Is it mainly because many e bike buyers have too great an expectation of what the bikes can do and think they are going to be whisked around on electric motor bikes? Or is perhaps that people don't feel safe on any kind of bike mixing it with traffic as we do in this country, and many don't want to risk it.

I've seen a number of reasons over the years, among them:

The view that bikes cost around about hundred pounds has resulted in many buying the cheap junk e-bikes that have been marketed over the years. They soon fail and usually have no service/spares provision/backup.

Lithium batteries have commonly failed within two years, and when owners find the huge cost (to them) of replacement they give up using the e-bike.

Many elderly people adopt an e-bike at advanced ages to return to cycling. With a high likelyhood of ill-health, they often have to stop cycling before long.

Some only buy an e-bike to cover a period of loss of car driving licence.

And some are just disappointed by what an e-bike can do, as you remark.

We've had members in all of those classifications.
.

 

[JohnCade]

You do see a lot of e bikes for sale having had very little use, and often having been stored for a couple of years in a shed or garage. Many at very optimistic prices too. So why did the owners give up on them so quickly I wonder?

Your later edit seems to cover this...

 

[RobF]

Lighter, more powerful batteries would be top of my wish list, but it's not going to happen soon.

Lead acid was invented 200 years ago and is still the only way to start millions and millions of internal combustion engine vehicles.

I believe I will be either dead or too infirm to cycle before there are any significant improvements in battery technology for the consumer.

Maybe in a few years someone will be able to reliably squeeze a few more watt hours into the size and weight of a current battery.

 

[Kudoscycles]

Is it mainly because many e bike buyers have too great an expectation of what the bikes can do and think they are going to be whisked around on electric motor bikes? Or is perhaps that people don't feel safe on any kind of bike mixing it with traffic as we do in this country, and many don't want to risk it.

John,your posting wraps it up very succinctly. I am afraid that exaggerated claims about what these bikes can achieve by certain suppliers has a lot to blame-I find myself at shows trying to tone down the expectations of new customers. In a strange way those expectations also put off the customer who is ideal as an e-bike user-there are some who would like some assistance up hills but concerned this will mean nil exercise as well.
So as an industry we seem to have alienated both extremes of requirements from their e-bikes.
But knowledge is improving,the combination of 50 cycles and the London Electric Bike Company in one location seems to generate a momentum of sales and customers are coming into the shops knowing what an e-bike can achieve and what they want from it.Also the bikes are getting sexier,the 2015 KTM range are very desirable bikes,in my opinion.
With regard to bike safety I must say I feel more comfortable riding any bike in London,with at least an attempt at cycle lanes. The logical journey home from my warehouse to home near Canterbury is so dangerous I wouldn't go near it with any bike,that situation is never going to change.
With regard to the original OP I don't see any major change on the horizon,I think we are at a technology plateau at present but I do think it is not a bad plateau,what do others want from these bikes?
Cheaper?
Hill climbing without pedalling? Throttle?
Hill climbing with pedalling?
Long Range?
Light weight?
Style?
Exercise?
What are forum member's priorities?
KudosDave

 

[drsolly]

One day there might be agreement on what an e-bike constitutes in terms of layout, but there's no sign of that happening soon.

My preferred layout:

Rear brake on the left, front brake on the right. Combined brake and shifters on both sides. Thumb throttle on the far right, speedo next to it. Display in the middle for volts (optionally also temperature and amps). Bell (or horn) on the far left, three-way speed switch on the left next to it.

Yes, my handlebar is crowded - I use an extension to carry my PDA (vital for navigating, because I'm geocaching).

Battery connector EC5, phase wire connector 4mm bullets.

Other connectors are all over the place, I wish that could be standardised.

 

[drsolly]

My priorities on price/climbing/weight etc aren't important, I doubt if there's many people using an ebike like I do. I'm pretty sure there's no-one else in the UK geocaching on an ebike.

But having said that, priorities are:

1) No punctures
2) Lots of torque at low speed
3) Throttle
4) Light weight, and ability to quickly take off the battery for lifting over obstacles

That's why I'm so excited by the Xiongda two-speed motor. In combination with my usual anti-puncture system, and carrying the batteries in panniers, it could be the best I've seen yet.

 

[Kudoscycles]

Lighter, more powerful batteries would be top of my wish list, but it's not going to happen soon.

Lead acid was invented 200 years ago and is still the only way to start millions and millions of internal combustion engine vehicles.

I believe I will be either dead or too infirm to cycle before there are any significant improvements in battery technology for the consumer.

Maybe in a few years someone will be able to reliably squeeze a few more watt hours into the size and weight of a current battery.

Rob....ironically we have just started to sell lithium auto starting batteries through our auto business but these are primarily being bought by race cars to save weight,made in Italy the cost is not currently competitive against lead acid for road vehicles.
KudosDave

 

[Kudoscycles]

My priorities on price/climbing/weight etc aren't important, I doubt if there's many people using an ebike like I do. I'm pretty sure there's no-one else in the UK geocaching on an ebike.

But having said that, priorities are:

1) No punctures
2) Lots of torque at low speed
3) Throttle
4) Light weight, and ability to quickly take off the battery for lifting over obstacles

That's why I'm so excited by the Xiongda two-speed motor. In combination with my usual anti-puncture system, and carrying the batteries in panniers, it could be the best I've seen yet.

1)....tyres are improving with regard to anti punctures.
2)....the 'tuned' BPM motor and Panasonic hub motor offers lots of torque at low speed.
3)....throttle,a UK only requirement so it's becoming more difficult to offer,why do we want throttles but the rest of Europe seems to do without them?
4)....less weight costs more,are we prepared to pay to lose weight?Below 20 KGs will get expensive or compromise on range?
KudosDave

 

[flecc]

My preferred layout:

Rear brake on the left, front brake on the right. Combined brake and shifters on both sides. Thumb throttle on the far right, speedo next to it. Display in the middle for volts (optionally also temperature and amps). Bell (or horn) on the far left, three-way speed switch on the left next to it.

Yes, my handlebar is crowded - I use an extension to carry my PDA (vital for navigating, because I'm geocaching).

Battery connector EC5, phase wire connector 4mm bullets.

Other connectors are all over the place, I wish that could be standardised.

My handlebar is similarly crowded, but I doubt we'd get agreement on many factors like shift control type.

However, by layout I was thinking of the major factors:

Where the motor is.

Where the battery is.

Motor drive through chain or within wheel.

The long established and mature motor industry has reached widespread car design agreement for the main market now, for examples the transverse front engine driving the front wheels, disc brakes and the hatchback body on smaller cars with a few saloons in the larger ranges, some with slight body extension to make them "estate" cars. The exceptions are very few.

Compare that with a few years ago, engines transverse or in line, placed in the front, rear or mid positions, front or rear wheel drive, different brake types, earlier an almost infinite number of body styles, even three or four wheels. This is where e-bikes are now.
.

 

[Geebee]

I think a large number turn to e-bikes due to age or illness, which unfortunately doesn't make for on going purchases or use, along with all the other reasons Flecc mentioned.
On the plus side down in the southern hemisphere where I live e-bikes numbers have increased by a hell of a lot over the last few years and especially the last 12 months.

 

[Kudoscycles]

In my opinion Bosch did a wonderful marketing job with their crank drive unit and at the time the hub drive units were not well developed. But latterly the emergence of the powerful Panasonic hub motor and the Bafang BPM motor has made me question why do we need the cost and complexity of crank drive. I wonder if Yamaha have come to the party too late and just copied the Bosch model.
The only downside I can see with a hub motor in the rear is that it occupies the rear hub which means that derailleur is the only gear system available,but derailleur without the chain load inputed by the crank motor seems to work fine taking the rider power only.
So maybe crank drive has a place combined with the Shimano Nexus hub or the Nuvinci hub,it is interesting in the London shop that most of the KTM crank drive bikes are sold with Nexus hubs,some customers just don't like derailleur.
So I think it is 'back to the future',good quality hub motor in the rear with good quality derailleur gears seems the current best and simplest system,it will get refined (the latest BPM motors have an even wider torque spread)but concept change seems unnecessary.
The soon to be released KTM Panasonic e-style is not expensive and seems to be state of the art but actually simple technology.
KudosDave

 

[VictoryV]

Rob....ironically we have just started to sell lithium auto starting batteries through our auto business but these are primarily being bought by race cars to save weight,made in Italy the cost is not currently competitive against lead acid for road vehicles.
KudosDave

For info my Volvo has a 12 Volt 900ah battery - it needs a Volvo to drag it around!

 

[RobF]

Rob....ironically we have just started to sell lithium auto starting batteries through our auto business but these are primarily being bought by race cars to save weight,made in Italy the cost is not currently competitive against lead acid for road vehicles.
KudosDave

I recall Varley batteries in racing cars years ago.

They were dry, or at least sealed, which meant they could be mounted anywhere, upside down, on their side, in a box - handy when you building a racing car.

Looks like the current ones are lithium.

http://www.varleyredtop.com/

 

[VictoryV]

I recall Varley batteries in racing cars years ago.

They were dry, or at least sealed, which meant they could be mounted anywhere, upside down, on their side, in a box - handy when you building a racing car.

Looks like the current ones are lithium.

http://www.varleyredtop.com/

I trained in the RAF as an instrument fitter. Part of our final training was to assist the engine fitters with doing engine starts on a Vulcan Bomber. The Vulcan had two ways of starting its engines, one used an external power generator, the other used its own internal batteries to start one engine and then cascade the starts from the dc provided by that engine. On an external start we had a "Rolls-Vernon" generator that would give 112 volts DC. My job was to hold in the circuit breaker to stop it popping out under starting load - which was 100 volts 700 amps. As the starter motor kicked in the torque load on the generator nearly knocked it over sideways until it gathered enough drive to power the system. For an internal start the aircraft had 28 volt lead acid batteries connected in series to provide a sum of 112volts and these batteries were capable of giving the 700 amps to start the motor. The internal wiring and busbars for this system were "epic". Battery starts were the norm for Quick Reaction Aircraft (QRA) that were parked with crews inside at dispersals just off the end of the runway, and had 90 seconds to get airborn from the QRA alert being issued - that's 4 engines in that time then roll!

 

[Kudoscycles]

I recall Varley batteries in racing cars years ago.

They were dry, or at least sealed, which meant they could be mounted anywhere, upside down, on their side, in a box - handy when you building a racing car.

Looks like the current ones are lithium.

http://www.varleyredtop.com/

Rob and Victory,the Varley red top battery,originally developed for aero use is still the most popular battery used in race car applications,they are still exactly as you describe-they appear dry but in fact the acid is held in a matrix which as you say can be used in any position(probably useful in a fighter jet),DMS technologies is the current distributor. We have all experimented with Lithium but it is difficult to achieve the cranking current and maintain the weight advantage-we have just taken on the distributor of Aliant batteries of Italy. Note these are not suitable for deep cycle applications,like we use for power on our e-bikes.
KudosDave