What will be the next major step forward

[trex]

...
If you want a dealer to sell it for you, they'll want at least £200, which gets you to where the cheapest ebikes are now. The only way I can see it going cheaper is if the Chinese created their own brands rather than making different bikes for every different European customer. Then they could change to mass production and get the economies of scale and reliable quality controls; however, I can't see how that change would come about.

At the moment, we're still seeing a divergence in supply. There's more and more motor types and systems while the market expands. Eventually there will be a rationalisation, where particular products and brands will become more popular. The rationalisation will come because somebody gets a technology advantage, maybe by clever design, and others by clever marketing.

d8veh, you forgot the VAT and other running costs.
if I own a bike shop, I wouldn't touch Chinese bikes with a barge pole.
there is no money in it.

 

[JohnCade]

d8veh, you forgot the VAT and other running costs.
if I own a bike shop, I wouldn't touch Chinese bikes with a barge pole.
there is no money in it.

I thought you had an interest in a bike shop selling Chinese bikes?

 

[Deleted member 4366]

d8veh, you forgot the VAT and other running costs.
if I own a bike shop, I wouldn't touch Chinese bikes with a barge pole.
there is no money in it.

I included VAT and other duty, but not outward disrtribution costs.

 

[trex]

there is no point for bike shops to get involved with Chinese bikes because of smaller sales proceed, lack of styling and lack of economy of scale. Whereas European made bikes settle for high price, they have medium volume, medium margin and enough margin to pay for quality components and finish, Chinese bikes have to compete in smaller price bands (sub £700, £700-£1000, £1000-£1500), small batch sizes, like how many of the new Oxygen are made?, slow moving, like you still see the Kudos Dukes and Safaris on the Kudos web site.
For Chinese e-bikes, the next major step is for one or two models to break through the volume barrier, selling something like 1,000 a month. Pedego have done that but they have to spread their sales over a dozen countries.

 

[tongxinpete]

My area has quite a good cycle path network. I can do a 10 mile round trip commute hardly ever touching a busy road except to cross it at pedestrian lights. I have been playing around for 10 years & at last I have something that actually works in my hilly region. Q100 250w rear motor, 24'' rim, I am on SLA but a Frog 10Ah pack would fit the bill, (best might be the variant with 2p 10s pouches as simpler than 4p 10s cylindrical as less to fail, better still would be one with just 10s pouches if available, & a shunting BMS with a LED per cell showing when shunting volts had been reached so that faultfinding would be easier, a plug in BMS like the plug in controllers would also be good)
I have had to move my rim brake to suit the smaller rear wheel, but there were some Powabyke adult frames with 24'' wheels. I am 6ft 2 & weigh 205 Lbs so if this set up works for me it would for most. Top speed 15 mph. We experimenters lose out on having to air ship parts but in China above motor is £50, controller is £8, Frog with basic charger £50 to £80 dependent on how many you buy. It is possible to get a lower geared motor to avoid the wheel size change, but sadly the accent on speed makes these hard to get. Above parts can be fitted to any 26'' El cheapo ATB. Second charger £12 to be kept at work to double the range if needed(if they let you plug it in!)
I cannot see the above breaking the bank as a kit. If I can learn wheel building at 53 then I think an adult could learn to ride a bike. The crunch will not come until petrol becomes much dearer (as it will). Has anyone thought of the fact that the first generation to live shorter lives than their parents is upon us, through lack of exersize - probably much more dangerous than an ebike. I tried to sort a cheap machine for everyman, & he does not need to live in a flat area to benefit. I agree the best advert for ebiking is to get out & ride one. I see a lot of guys here commuting between my estate & the local industrial estate, mostly on basic ATB's, either they never learned to drive or maybe they leave the car for the wife to use. All I guess I am saying is keep it simple, keep it affordable, that is if the goal is to have less pollution etc, otherwise the £1500 ebike will make someone more money (if any are sold).