There's plenty of academic discussion on why crime has reduced (across the world). I wasn't suggesting the huge increase in immigration over the last few years caused the reduction in violent crime, more saying that the pre-existing trend downwards has continued during those years. Online echo chambers don't match reality ( thats a feature not a bug)
Crime against households and people aged 16 years and over, using data from police recorded crime and the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW).
www.ons.gov.uk
But it is equally specious Peter, for someone to post Jonathon Portez's graph implying that migration has had no effect on violent crime (see your post from yesterday above).
There are many issues which have influenced the decline in violence across the developed world over that period. Probably the most often written about is the removal of tetra-ethyl lead from petrol. Correlation is not causation as the statisticians so often say, and of course it isn't, but the withdrawal of lead from petrol did not happen everywhere at once, starting in the USA and later elsewhere. Interestingly, the collapse in opportunistic and impulsive crime in young men, follows the imposition of the ban. Wherever and whenever it was withdrawn - a few years later, rates of violent, impulsive and opportunistic crime collapsed among young men. The mechanism proposed for the influence of lead pollution, is that high levels of lead compounds dumped especially heavily on urban streets, were damaging the brains of young people and this was being expressed particularly among young males in their rates of violent incidents and crime. When this stopped, so did the crime they were creating.
That decline shown in the graph has no relevance to the question of whether migration is having an impact on violent crime. Different matters are at play.
Take a look at Sweden which took in a surprisingly large number of middle eastern migrants in the wake of disruptions caused by the so called Arab spring. It is indisputable that the very rapid rise in extreme violence, organised crime and bombings is linked to numbers of very nasty criminal elements imported from the middle east. Use of Kalashnikov rifles and hand grenades were unheard of before that population shift. They are now common. Murder rates linked to organised crime have escalated. There is also clear evidence of a rise in sexual crimes against women, which was also evident in Germany some time back. This is not just correlational 'evidence' which is weak. The ethnic origin of the criminals is clear, and the cause of the rise is the failure of the plan to incorporate large foreign populations from unstable and violent areas.
We don't have to look to foreign data on violent crime linked to groups from unstable regions.
Last year the majority of irregular migrants arriving here in small boats were Albanian. Many of these were criminals transferring here to establish criminal networks. Right now, twelve percent of all foreign national prisoners in UK jails are in fact Albanian. This surprising figure (referenced above yesterday by me with government sourced data) coming from a very small minority in the UK population. One would expect that UK origin people would predominate in the UK jail population and they do, but the proportion is smaller than the proportion of UK origin people in the uk which means a greater proportion of prisoners are of foreign origin than would be expected if the populations were equally prey to criminality.
We have also seen significant rises in types of crimes pretty much unknown in the UK population before now. Honour killings, use of corrosive substances to blind and disfigure, forced marriage, sexual grooming gangs. Hundreds of now convicted men of certain ethnicity have been convicted of this kind of foul abuse. Anyone who has not been purposely hiding from reality knows this.
I actually know someone who dealt with the corrosive substance attacker, Abdul Ezedi, before he travelled three hundred miles from Newcastle to Clapham to commit the horrific attack on an ex partner and her children. The person concerned, a female, was afraid in his presence and warned colleagues that he ought to be seen only by male workers. While Ezedi managed to deceive naive clergymen into supporting his application for leave to remain in the UK after his asylum claims had been rejected, and in spite of their knowing he had been convicted of a sexual offence, those dealing with him in those churches, insisted on his being supervised at all times by responsible males while he was in the presence of female parishioners and children. We have a plague of what I call 'do-gooderism' afflicting naive, liberal people who look the other way at the problems of irregular, un-vetted, entirely illegal migration into the UK.
Nobody and certainly not me, is saying that we should stop all migration, or that all migrants are problematic. This is not the case at all, but we should completely reject illegal migrants. Not to do so invites societal harm.