Brexit, for once some facts.

[Mrs Honeyman]

Magical evidence creation device launched by UK government:

UK Covid: No 10 says it hopes evidence will ‘soon’ be available to justify cutting isolation period to five days – live

I was reading about this and also that we hope to “escape” from free lateral flow tests.

Who’s interests are served by no longer being able to test yourself (unreliability of the test accepted) and having less time to recover once infected. Where do you & I benefit from all of this.

This is purely to make likes of Sir Beard, Lord Vacuum Cleaner and Baroness undercrackers even richer than they are today.

 

[flecc]

Like a torch with a failing battery when contrasted against Johnson's thermonuclear explosion just in front of your cornea in terms of glaring faults.

Perfect similes.

Glum Starmer just like a failing torch.

Johnson the big bang excitement the public love so much.

They're still missing Guy Fawkes night, American Halloween and Black Friday being pathetic substitutes.
.

 

[oyster]

Perfect similes.

Glum Starmer just like a failing torch.

Johnson the big bang excitement the public love so much.

They're still missing Guy Fawkes night, American Halloween and Black Friday being pathetic substitutes.
.

Though I was referring to the glaringness of their faults.

 

[flecc]

Just wait a few months for those small "c" conservative voters to be fed up with rising taxes, poor public services and 5%-7% inflation.

But you know what happens then. The Tories turn it round, reminding, if necessary falsely, how high Labour taxes were and what a shambles public services were under Labour.

They have plenty of ammunition and no conscience to restrain them, so the small "c" timid conservatives frighten easily as usual and play safe with a small "c" tory vote, just to be sure.
.

 

[flecc]

Though I was referring to the glaringness of their faults.

See this post, it's not what they look at.
.

 

[Zlatan]

maybe not a ringing endorsement but still enough momentum to remove the current conservative government.
Just wait a few months for those small "c" conservative voters to be fed up with rising taxes, poor public services and 5%-7% inflation.
The polling gap will widen then to 10% or more.

Nobody ever really knows but Labour's strategy since Blair days hasn't been to offer what people really want, rather they wait for Tories to be so bad Labour inherit no 10 by default... The expectation being Tories lose power rather than Labour win it.
But its proven time and time again to simply not work. It's a terrible strategy to be dependant on the failures of the opposition, it leaves them in control.
Had Sir, Alex Fergus son had same strategy Liverpool would never have been kicked off perch.
Labour must be attractive in their own right and not as simply "can't do any worse".
It's why voters are as so taken in by Tories.
Labour haven't changed to become poll leaders, Tories have slumped. There is a massive difference. All tories have to do is pass blame for their slump or change to what voters want.
We will see in a few years time but I, d have a bet come next GE Tories have a healthy lead at polls and will win next GE.
Had Starmer grown his lead at Polls by doing or saying something I, d tend to agree with you. He didn't, Tories messed up with Party time. Sort that out and Starmer is back in second place.
(and to be fair it's where he belongs, I think Rayner would stand more chance)

 

[Woosh]

Labour haven't changed to become poll leaders, Tories have slumped. There is a massive difference. All tories have to do is pass blame for their slump or change to what voters want.

The polls reflect voting intentions. Labour currently leads, Tories comes second.
Starmer is de facto PM in waiting.
if there is an election now, BJ will lose the red wall that he won last time.
You don't even need polls to tell you that. BJ's promise 'Levelling Up' has not materialised, that's a good enough reason for him to lose the red wall.

Here is the prediction of number of seats: Labour 320, conservatives 240.
You can see why BJ will have to go.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Seat_predictions

 

[flecc]

Here is the prediction of number of seats: Labour 320, conservatives 240.
You can see why BJ will have to go.

Labour winning over 300 of the 533 English parliamentary seats in small "c" conservative England?

I'd love to see it, but I'm a realist.

Come the general election at a time to suit the Tories and things will look very different anyway.
.

 

[Zlatan]

The polls reflect voting intentions. Labour currently leads, Tories comes second.
Starmer is de facto PM in waiting.
if there is an election now, BJ will lose the red wall that he won last time.
You don't even need polls to tell you that. BJ's promise 'Levelling Up' has not materialised, that's a good enough reason for him to lose the red wall.

Here is the prediction of number of seats: Labour 320, conservatives 240.
You can see why BJ will have to go.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Seat_predictions

Think you are dreaming Woosh.
If...

Jeremy Corbyn 'could launch new political party' before election

The former opposition leader, 72, lost the Labour whip in 2020 after refusing to apologise for comments he made about the anti-Semitism row that engulfed it during his tenure.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Here we go.. Splitting Labour vote??
Very timely.
What is it they say Woosh? A week is a long time in politics... Well 3 years is an eternity..
Probably not dreaming but certainly counting chickens..
We all know a mid term low government poll result is hardly a prediction at all let alone a nailed on result.

 

[Woosh]

Think you are dreaming Woosh.

I only quoted the wiki page. I did not make up those numbers.
If you read the wiki page I linked to, you can see that their method (multilevel regression with poststratification MRP ) is standard method for estimating seats.
As for the Daily Mail's speculation that JC could start a new party, that's as wishful a speculation as it gets. Even if that happens, it will simply make Labour even more coherent than now.

 

[Woosh]

But you know what happens then. The Tories turn it round, reminding, if necessary falsely, how high Labour taxes were and what a shambles public services were under Labour.

They have plenty of ammunition and no conscience to restrain them, so the small "c" timid conservatives frighten easily as usual and play safe with a small "c" tory vote, just to be sure.
.

I was one of those small "c" voters after my naturalisation. I voted for John Major and did not regret it. In 97, Blair promised not to raise taxes and would keep to conservatives spending plan for at least a year.
That was enough re-assurance for me.
I think Starmer is wise not to make much promises, especially those involving large spending. Small "c" voters don't want promises that are difficult to keep.

 

[flecc]

I was one of those small "c" voters after my naturalisation. I voted for John Major and did not regret it. In 97, Blair promised not to raise taxes and would keep to conservatives spending plan for at least a year.
That was enough re-assurance for me.
I think Starmer is wise not to make much promises, especially those involving large spending. Small "c" voters don't want promises that are difficult to keep.

I agree that Starmer shouldn't make promises. Indeed he should be careful of any indication on policies since the modern Tory tactic has been to simply steal each one announced to leave the opposition stumped.

But the history on Major and Blair is just that, history with no validity now. If Blair had been a deliberate plant by the Tory party to destroy Labour, he couldn't have possibly done a better job than he has. Having first changed the identity of the Labour party from it's Scottish socialist roots, losing the political core, his damage to the United Kingdom's unity through self rule for Scotland and Wales lost them much of their support.

The UK's democratic structure is radically different now from any time before 2015. With the Tories having just six Scottish MPs and 14 Welsh MPs in the Commons and the LibDems in the doldrums, Labour's only chance of government is to take most of the seats they need from the Tory's English seats.

As you said, over 300 of those 533 seats, most of them small "c". Starmer's Labour can undoubtedly profit from today's Tory failures, but to get more English seats than the Tories will be very difficult and to get overall control in the Commons in order to govern a nigh on impossibility.

Before the millennium the biggest political fairness problem was how to achieve proportional representation.

Since 2015 it's how to prevent the UK being a permanent one party state controlled only by England.
.

 

[Mrs Honeyman]

I think the latest party scandal at Number 10 is the final nail. The Prime Minister must now go, and she will have to take Boris Johnson with her.

 

[Zlatan]

Rishi Sunak will be PM within 4 weeks??? (I, d guess he's bookies favourite, and I, ll bet neither him nor Gove even got an invite, Matt Hancock was in cupboard with his mistress, socially distanced ofcourse, and Cummings having an eye test)
Sunak has more ambition than to go to some risky drinks party.(doubt he drinks anyhow) Wonder if Lizzy was there??
Can't see Raab getting job.??He, d be first to party.
What a fecking shower.
How bad can they get and still keep power??
Will it be a first? PM ousted for having drinks on the lawn?

 

[soundwave]

new footage of boris leaving hospital after catching covid on his bmx

 

[Mrs Honeyman]

Rishi Sunak will be PM within 4 weeks?

Jesus Christ.

 

[soundwave]

Jesus Christ.

 

[Zlatan]

Jesus Christ.

Well that's been my point for weeks. Be careful what you wish for. Looks like Boris will be moving out of his refurbed flat soon but who will be choosing new wall paper??
Gove? Shapps? Raab? Sunak? Truss? Got to be one of them..
Might aswell keep Boris. That's the mechanism that got him there. Better than alternative...??

 

[Nev]

I think the latest party scandal at Number 10 is the final nail. The Prime Minister must now go, and she will have to take Boris Johnson with her.

If the allegations are true that he and his wife (gf at the time I think) attended that party then I don’t think even he can worm his way out of it so I think he will have to go.
Can anyone think how he can get out of it, or perhaps does he think the public are fed up with all the talk of lockdown parties and just want to move on, and is hoping most of the press will back him and he will just get away with it once again.

 

[soundwave]

If the allegations are true that he and his wife (gf at the time I think) attended that party then I don’t think even he can worm his way out of it so I think he will have to go.
Can anyone think how he can get out of it, or perhaps does he think the public are fed up with all the talk of lockdown parties and just want to move on, and is hoping most of the press will back him and he will just get away with it once again.

.