Brexit, for once some facts.

[Suzan]

No I did not, I posted the actual test information charts, clearly you don't bother to read my posts

You are mixing infection rates with hospitalisation/death rates tho. The 94 % quoted for Scotland was keeping folk out of hospital. (ie in the group studied 94% fewer hospitalisations) You then jump to quoting data talking about infection rates. (which we must eventually to get on top of covid)
Keeping people out of hospital is the priority at the moment.
Its common knowledge vaccines, at the moment, are not fantastic at stopping infection but seem great at stopping serious illness. You are mixing the two to make your argument.
In a way you are correct, in that vaccines will not stop infections but they should lower death rates dramatically. Yes, lockdown to keep infections down, and vaccines to lower serious illness when folk do become infected. Government have said that all along. They are telling us not to mix, socially distance etc etc even after both jabs.

 

[Danidl]

Let me put this case forward
The number vaccinated so far have not yet really impacted the cases numbers
What has and indeed is only likely to is the Lockdown

It follows that they should have stuck to the lockdown as the main defence, and given the vaccines systematically at the correct interval for maximum success and reduction of new variants

OG, maybe I am misreading you but in fairness the vaccination program is working in both the UK and in Ireland, in the short term. It is reducing the hospital admission rates. The Israeli experience has demonstrated it. Now the cycle is jab the vaccine and irrespective of the brand, immunity or reduction in susceptibility starts about 10 days later, and continues to grow until it starts to wane, perhaps 5 weeks later. By this stage, 20M in the UK have got a first dose, and those who got the earliest jabs are now at peak protection, Meanwhile the later cohorts are growing in number ,and their protection is growing, and the pool of infectivity is being curbed.
The Irish health service HSE has noted a similar situation, particularly in the very critical care group of nurses, who were the first to be innoculated. The number of medical absences in this group, who cannot lockdown, and who are critical, has dropped enormously. This is a group where statistics are easy to follow in real time and the HSE has data on a daily basis. If a nurse doesn't report, the HR section knows in minutes and HSE payroll within the hour.

 

[sjpt]

Let me put this case forward
The number vaccinated so far has not yet really impacted the cases numbers
What has and indeed is only likely to is the Lockdown

It follows that they should have stuck to the lockdown as the main defence, and given the vaccines systematically at the correct interval for maximum success and reduction of new variants

I agree that case numbers so far are down almost completely because of lockdown, and it looks as if there is significant risk the government will relax it too soon. However, I don't agree with 'is only likely to' and 'it follows'. I think the vaccine is highly likely to impact case numbers, especially numbers of serious cases. The impact would be felt with either 3 week or 12 week gaps; we may never know which would have been better there.

There is very weak evidence of vaccination having an effect already. The case numbers started to level out around mid-Feb, and then once again dropped more rapidly at the end of the month. One interpretation is that the levelling out was tending to a natural steady state with lockdown and without vaccination (which hadn't really started to have any effect). The reemergence of the faster drop by the end of the month was due to vaccination beginning to have effect. The data changes I mention are pretty small; I agree they may have many other explanations including random fluctuation.

If you look at deaths instead of cases there is hardly any such effect visible yet; maybe because of the longer time lag between cause and effect.

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Explore global data on COVID-19.

ourworldindata.org

 

[flecc]

I don’t think either Whitty or Van-Tam are government stooges, they have made that clear.

These professors are employees agreeing with the boss.

The boss is Sir Patrick Valance, Chief Scientific Advisor to the government who heads the department.

Whitty is not only Chief Medical Officer, he is the Chief Scientific Adviser in medicine under Vallance.

Van-Tam is Deputy Chief Medical Officer under Whitty.

These so called independent experts being trotted out are nothing of the sort. They are one voice giving the government's departmental opinion.

Look it all up if you don't believe me, the information is all online.
.

 

[Zlatan]

These professors are employees agreeing with the boss.

The boss is Sir Patrick Valance, Chief Scientific Advisor to the government who heads the department.

Whitty is not only Chief Medical Officer, he is the Chief Scientific Adviser in medicine under Vallance.

Van-Tam is Deputy Chief Medical Officer under Whitty.

These so called independent experts being trotted out are nothing of the sort. They are one voice giving the government's departmental opinion.

Look it all up if you don't believe me, the information is all online.
.

In the style of Polly.
100% bull crap.

 

[Zlatan]

You are mixing infection rates with hospitalisation/death rates tho. The 94 % quoted for Scotland was keeping folk out of hospital. (ie in the group studied 94% fewer hospitalisations) You then jump to quoting data talking about infection rates. (which we must eventually to get on top of covid)
Keeping people out of hospital is the priority at the moment.
Its common knowledge vaccines, at the moment, are not fantastic at stopping infection but seem great at stopping serious illness. You are mixing the two to make your argument.
In a way you are correct, in that vaccines will not stop infections but they should lower death rates dramatically. Yes, lockdown to keep infections down, and vaccines to lower serious illness when folk do become infected. Government have said that all along. They are telling us not to mix, socially distance etc etc even after both jabs.

Don't come in here spouting logic. It's banned.

 

[POLLY]

These professors are employees agreeing with the boss.

The boss is Sir Patrick Valance, Chief Scientific Advisor to the government who heads the department.

Whitty is not only Chief Medical Officer, he is the Chief Scientific Adviser in medicine under Vallance.

Van-Tam is Deputy Chief Medical Officer under Whitty.

These so called independent experts being trotted out are nothing of the sort. They are one voice giving the government's departmental opinion.

Look it all up if you don't believe me, the information is all online.
.

The information is all online bullcrap

 

[flecc]

In the style of Polly.
100% bull crap.

100% fact, did you not read my last line?
.

 

[Jesus H Christ]

These professors are employees agreeing with the boss.

The boss is Sir Patrick Valance, Chief Scientific Advisor to the government who heads the department.

Whitty is not only Chief Medical Officer, he is the Chief Scientific Adviser in medicine under Vallance.

Van-Tam is Deputy Chief Medical Officer under Whitty.

These so called independent experts being trotted out are nothing of the sort. They are one voice giving the government's departmental opinion.

Look it all up if you don't believe me, the information is all online.
.

I don’t think they are influenced by government. They are paid to advise them. The government chooses whether or not to follow the advice and how to implement it. There has been several clear disagreements between the advisors and government, so they will make it known if they aren’t happy about a particular decision. With regards to delaying the second vaccination, they are just trying to get protection for as many people as possible with finite resources.

 

[flecc]

I don’t think they are influenced by government. They are paid to advise them. The government chooses whether or not to follow the advice and how to implement it. There has been several clear disagreements between the advisors and government, so they will make it known if they aren’t happy about a particular decision. With regards to delaying the second vaccination, they are just trying to get protection for as many people as possible with finite resources.

I didn't make any comment about the quality of their advice or about them being influenced by government. I simply pointed out the structure of their positions to show that deputies are unlikely to publically disagree with their superior. i.e:

A Deputy Chief Medical Officer is unlikely to disagree with his Chief Medical Officer.

A divisional Chief Scientific Adviser is unlikely to disagree with the overall Chief Scientific Adviser.

It's as well to be aware of these relationships, showing that they are factually not independent experts.

I posted only these factual relationships and invited you to check that they are accurate, so it amused me that two of you posted a disagree and one commented that my post was was 100% bullcrap, making the three of you akin to POLLY in having strange fictional beliefs.
.

 

[Zlatan]

I didn't make any comment about the quality of their advice or about them being influenced by government. I simply pointed out the structure of their positions to show that deputies are unlikely to publically disagree with their superior. i.e:

A Deputy Chief Medical Officer is unlikely to disagree with his Chief Medical Officer.

A divisional Chief Scientific Adviser is unlikely to disagree with the overall Chief Scientific Adviser.

It's as well to be aware of these relationships, showing that they are factually not independent experts.

I posted only these factual relationships and invited you to check that they are accurate, so it amused me that two of you posted a disagree and one commented that my post was was 100% bullcrap, making the three of you akin to POLLY in having strange fictional beliefs.
.

Changing your story now. Your original description was they were, and I quote, "Government lackeys".
Which is 100% bull crap and worse, it undermines the message from them about vaccines and or lockdown more than Polly's opinion does. Perhaps we should report you for attempting to influence vaccine rollout.
Polly gives us his opinion, you criticise and undermine the very people trying to help. (JVT, PV, CW) Which is far worse.

 

[oyster]

The Israeli experience has demonstrated it.

Does Israel have predominantly the Kent variant?

 

[flecc]

Changing your story now. Your original description was they were, and I quote, "Government lackeys".

You quoted my post, so please confine yourself to answering that quoted post. Your answer to a past post out of context and not shown here to members was a non-sequitur.

So you think POLLY's posts are opinion, but mine aren't?

POLLY refuses to give either of us any facts whatsoever to support his 100% negative views, I do give you facts and you call me worse than him. Members can judge what that makes you.
.

 

[oldgroaner]

You are mixing infection rates with hospitalisation/death rates tho. The 94 % quoted for Scotland was keeping folk out of hospital. (ie in the group studied 94% fewer hospitalisations) You then jump to quoting data talking about infection rates. (which we must eventually to get on top of covid)
Keeping people out of hospital is the priority at the moment.
Its common knowledge vaccines, at the moment, are not fantastic at stopping infection but seem great at stopping serious illness. You are mixing the two to make your argument.

This is in fact the data I referred to
The Antibody protection ratings nothing to do with infection rates or hospital admissions
My posted IGg test charts
In a way you are correct, in that vaccines will not stop infections but they should lower death rates dramatically. Yes, lockdown to keep infections down, and vaccines to lower serious illness when folk do become infected. Government have said that all along. They are telling us not to mix, socially distance etc etc even after both jabs.

Actually My post highlighted there is no evidence available to support the notion that the virus is keeping the infection rates and hospitalisations down
The data I posted was to do the the presence of antibodies over a given time on this post
https://www.pedelecs.co.uk/forum/threads/brexit-for-once-some-facts.24369/post-604719
I am not confusing anything am I? as to the additional two months delay not incurring a final date, I really can't see that.
And the vaccination program and lockdowns are not linked, here is some more evidence from the official government guidance for people identified now as at high risk
"Even if they have both vaccination doses, they should continue to follow these shielding measures as we continue to assess the impact of vaccination among all groups"
It seems the government is, like me cautious about how much protection the current vaccines are if they are unsure that even both shots are fully safe.

 

[oyster]

Glad to see the NHS has been protected well enough to have space for a certain Windsor pensioner...

 

[oldgroaner]

I don’t think they are influenced by government. They are paid to advise them. The government chooses whether or not to follow the advice and how to implement it. There has been several clear disagreements between the advisors and government, so they will make it known if they aren’t happy about a particular decision. With regards to delaying the second vaccination, they are just trying to get protection for as many people as possible with finite resources.

With finite resources? the pace of vaccination has slowed through shortages

The Government blamed the supplier
The Supplier responded, we supplied what you ordered on the dates you specified

So who do you believe?

 

[oldgroaner]

Don't come in here spouting logic. It's banned.

While you remain contributing, there's no danger of you being banned for that is there?

 

[oldgroaner]

This is disturbing
in the independent
"
34,000 people with dementia thought to have died of Covid in UK
Don't they actually know?
My wife has advanced mixed Dementia, it is now 8 weeks since we had the first jab.
And I just quoted the advice that says don't regard both doses as safe.

Reasons to be cheerful part 3 comes to mind

 

[Woosh]

I don’t think they are influenced by government. They are paid to advise them.

they are among the top paid civil servants.

Top scientific advisers rake in £400k

Chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty, who is paid between £205,000 and £210,000, and chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance, who is on up to £185,000, appear on the list.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[oldgroaner]

Brexitshambles@brexit_sham

Former Franch President Sarkozy, and two former associates, have been sentenced to three years in jail - for corruption.




oldgroaner@oldgroaner

Replying to @brexit_sham

So "Former Franch President Sarkozy, and two former associates, have been sentenced to three years in jail - for corruption."
If we want to do that here we're going to need a bigger jail!