Brexit, for once some facts.

oyster

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Nov 7, 2017
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It's certainly a luxury living right on the coast, I'm always reminding myself of that. The only trouble is house prices, we have penthouse apartments in the area costing 4 million a pop !
Having lived a long way from the coast for too much of my life, being close is beyond luxury. It feels like a life saver. That is not a reference to any impact on Covid-19, rather the psychological impact of being able to go to the sea whenever we want and everything that means. And the physiological impact of both having a cooler climate and being able to relieve the worst of any heat - without having to drive for hours.

Many years ago I lived off a main coastal route and, every warm or hot day, the trunk roads in the area would grind to a halt. Used not to go to the coast very often simply because sitting in a car under a sweltering sun (without air conditioning being widely installed in cars at that time) was such a horrible prospect.
 
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Nev

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May 1, 2018
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Case mortality rate is now less than 1%.
Possibly down to better understanding of the disease and how to treat it.
Yes I think your are right, I have also read that compared to earlier in the year (I am talking about Europe) the average age of people catching the virus is much lower. They tend to cope with the infection far better than older people.

It would be nice to think that the virus is mutating and becoming less dangerous, but from what I have read there is no evidence to support this at present.
 

Nev

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May 1, 2018
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Given the number who suffer "Long Covid" (or whatever it is called today), let's hope that survival isn't regarded as complete success.
No one seems to know how big of a problem this is. I was listening to an expert the other day about what the probable cause was, they suspected it was due to problems with our immune system. It must be dreadful to be one of these long term sufferers and worry that you might never get back to normal.
 

Woosh

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May 19, 2012
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"Wake up EU! You're forcing a no deal brexit"
Hilarious


A poor attempt even by Daily Mail Standards!
they are of course right on the EU forcing a no deal brexit and wrong on the EU sleepwalking.
The EU wants a guarantee of fair competition, common standards and level playing field for any free access to their Single Market. There will be a deal but not free access to the EU single market.
This government spends zillions of borrowed money trying to buy public opinion but so far did not achieve much success. Let's just wait until international funders turn away from UK's Treasury bonds.
 
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Barry Shittpeas

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Jan 1, 2020
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Exams fiasco, Brexit negotiations fiasco, R rate above one fiasco. Where is Good News Guy?

Hiding in a tent in Scotland.
 

flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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What puzzles me is the low death rate , a consultant at a Midlands hospital (where covid infections are on the up) say it's because it's mainly the young who are infected. The mayor of New York say theres a much higher incidence of antibodies (and infection) of up to 20% and immunity than official stats and that covid is less deadly than thought. I thought it odd that hospital deaths suddenly became deaths in all settings in uk(and thought hancock was reverting to form) but ons (who I do trust) say there aren't excess deaths at present. It's an enigma, France have infections at 4k plus a day and something like 21 deaths. Perhaps its lag. The next few weeks could be telling. What am I missing?
I think all the evidence is relevant, for example, the New York Mayors statement. Remember this from way back in May three months ago which supports what he says:

21 May 2020
Almost one in five people in London - 17 per cent - have already had the coronavirus, according to surveillance testing, meaning that around 1.53million people have been infected with the virus and recovered.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock announced testing for antibodies among a sample of the population has given the government the first indications of how many people have caught the disease already. Meanwhile the rate across the rest of the UK appeared to be around five per cent, he said, which would equal 2.85million people.


Just look at that huge difference between London and the rest of Britain (17% of London, 5% of the rest of the UK) and London's extremely low death rate now from being infected since those days three months ago. I don't care what terms are used to describe the effect, it's clear that taking a massive early infection hit has resulted in a very low death rate from later infections. The fact that New York, a similar size population city with similar crowded conditions has matched it is proof enough.
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Danidl

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Sep 29, 2016
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Case mortality rate is now less than 1%.
Possibly down to better understanding of the disease and how to treat it.
Sorry not true. The case mortality rate is stubbornly sitting at about 5% for persons positively identified with the illness and then having treatment stopped. This is based on the Worldometer statistics. That there are anecdotal reports of people having it so mild does that it is not detected , and antibody tests months after ,or even fragments of virus particles found in sewage etc and inferring results does not cut it. The statistics are 20M positives , 0.8M deaths, .. but the majority of these infections are recent, so not yet had an opportunity to be resolved
 

Barry Shittpeas

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Jan 1, 2020
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Sorry not true. The case mortality rate is stubbornly sitting at about 5% for persons positively identified with the illness and then having treatment stopped. This is based on the Worldometer statistics. That there are anecdotal reports of people having it so mild does that it is not detected , and antibody tests months after ,or even fragments of virus particles found in sewage etc and inferring results does not cut it. The statistics are 20M positives , 0.8M deaths, .. but the majority of these infections are recent, so not yet had an opportunity to be resolved
That’s probably true for mortality against identified cases. For every identified case, how many go unidentified and / or not recorded? Within that group of non-identified cases there will be people who’s symptoms are so mild, they don’t know they’ve had it, and people who are ill, but just crack on without getting tested/ confirmed. That could create a ratio of 10:1 or more between identified cases and actual number of infections. That would push the real mortality percentage much lower.
 
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Barry Shittpeas

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Jan 1, 2020
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Do you think The Democrats are trying to sneak Harris into the Whitehouse by stealth? Biden clearly died several years ago, and his embalmed & suited corpse Is being fielded as the presidential candidate. If it wins, I think the Democrats will declare that Biden is actually dead, so Harris will become president.
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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That’s probably true for mortality against identified cases. For every identified case, how many go unidentified and / or not recorded? Within that group of non-identified cases there will be people who’s symptoms are so mild, they don’t know they’ve had it, and people who are ill, but just crack on without getting tested/ confirmed. That could create a ratio of 10:1 or more between identified cases and actual number of infections. That would push the real mortality percentage much lower.
That was certainly true for London. The 17% quoted in this post with antibodies from infection were way above the otherwise observable Covid-19 symptoms without antibody testing.
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flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
53,135
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Do you think The Democrats are trying to sneak Harris into the Whitehouse by stealth? Biden clearly died several years ago, and his embalmed & suited corpse Is being fielded as the presidential candidate. If it wins, I think the Democrats will declare that Biden is actually dead, so Harris will become president.
We did similar in London decades ago. Wanting the capable Ken Livingstone as GLC leader but knowing our right wing Labour fringe wouldn't vote for him out of bigotry, Labour stood a moderate stooge, Andrew McIntosh for the post and he was selected and in 1981 elected.

Livingstone with a lot of backing challenged the legitimacy of his selection and within 24 hours McIntosh's own Labour party deposed him in favour of Livingstone, who proved repeatedly that he was the right choice.
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oldgroaner

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Nov 15, 2015
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New 'Brexit lorry park' planned for Hull
It will play a key role in providing extra border checks
 
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Woosh

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May 19, 2012
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Sorry not true. The case mortality rate is stubbornly sitting at about 5% for persons positively identified with the illness and then having treatment stopped. This is based on the Worldometer statistics. That there are anecdotal reports of people having it so mild does that it is not detected , and antibody tests months after ,or even fragments of virus particles found in sewage etc and inferring results does not cut it. The statistics are 20M positives , 0.8M deaths, .. but the majority of these infections are recent, so not yet had an opportunity to be resolved
case mortality rate evolves like the R number.
R is now up over 1 and case mortality rate is much, much lower than last spring. It may be due to the weather or may be the precautions we take in public places and at home.
I suspect that if you are aware of the danger, you react accordingly.
 
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oyster

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 7, 2017
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Oh, B****r
New 'Brexit lorry park' planned for Hull
It will play a key role in providing extra border checks
I note this comment:

Ultimately, it's thought sites on both sides of the estuary will be required.
https://www.hulldailymail.co.uk/news/hull-east-yorkshire-news/brexit-border-check-hull-port-4446547

Not being familiar with the geography (beyond looking at online maps), could there be any sense in have one each side? Could the choice make every lorry cross the bridge?
 

Woosh

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May 19, 2012
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Do you think The Democrats are trying to sneak Harris into the Whitehouse by stealth? Biden clearly died several years ago, and his embalmed & suited corpse Is being fielded as the presidential candidate. If it wins, I think the Democrats will declare that Biden is actually dead, so Harris will become president.
Harris comes through a bit more personable than Hilary Clinton.
 
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