Brexit, for once some facts.

[oyster]

I suspect they actually mean JC's lack of leadership over brexit...

Rebel Labour MPs set to quit party and form centre group
Growing discontent over policy on Brexit, anti-Semitism and Venezuela spur breakaway movement

A group of disaffected Labour MPs is preparing to quit the party and form a breakaway movement on the political centre ground amid growing discontent with Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership on Brexit and other key issues including immigration, foreign policy and antisemitism.

The Observer has been told by multiple sources that at least six MPs have been drawing up plans to resign the whip and leave the party soon.

There have also been discussions involving senior figures about a potentially far larger group splitting off at some point after Brexit, if Corbyn fails to do everything possible to oppose Theresa May’s plans for taking the UK out of the EU.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/02/rebel-labour-mps-set-to-quit-party-and-form-centre-group

 

[Danidl]

Some say that the Germans will not want no deal because we buy so many German cars ,look around the car park at Gatwick airport and you will see how much we like them.
10% tariff added to a Merc,Audi or VW will make little difference to the number we buy,£4000 over 3 years on a lease will be peanuts to most purchasers.
KudosDave

We did discuss this some 18 months ago. The effect will be that those people who might have got an A6 will settle for an upspec. A4 etc.

 

[anotherkiwi]

you are wrong on oranges.
We buy about half of our oranges from Spain, another half mostly from South Africa.
We pay zero duty on Spanish oranges and about 12% on average on South African oranges at the moment.
After a no deal brexit, we have to charge duty on all oranges prior to concluding any trade deal with the EU and with South Africa, that's 22% on average on citruses, 34% on orange juice.

Spanish pressed orange juice (with pulp) 1.58 € the litre
Buy the same in France 2.60 € a litre
Supermarket in Spain is 20 km from here
Car uses 4.5 litres of diesel/100 km
Diesel costs 1.23 € a litre

How many litres of orange juice do I need to buy to justify shopping in Spain?

Wrong! I go on my pedelec and electricity is 0.13€ a kWh...

 

[Deleted member 128]

Sad news about Nissan, can the car workers sue Leave.EU?

Miners in South Wales were able to sue compensation lawyers for being screwed.

 

[Danidl]

Eddie Jones always said judge me on the world cup.

I apologise if this caused offence.

No apology required in this case. The England team, dominated every phase of the game , They were as fired up as Ireland was against the All Blacks.. Even the trademarked loop around pass that Sexton does so well was read and countered.

 

[oldgroaner]

In the Telegraph this morning
"Theresa May invokes Jeremy Corbyn's support as she pledges to 'battle for Britain' in Brussels"

Who was she battling for when she made the agreement with the EU?

 

[oldgroaner]

The Express has started the "Project Victory" Sell out
BREXIT BOMBSHELL: Brussels WILL CAVE in to UK on THIS date with 'substantial concession'
BRUSSELS will offer a “substantial concession” to ensure a Brexit deal with the UK after the crucial vote on February 14, Euro insiders said last night – as long as Theresa May survives and holds her nerve.

A customs union by a more acceptable name

 

[OxygenJames]

So - as it turns out - Oranges could well be cheaper after Brexit.

Reading what people say here gave me the impression I had got things totally ar5e about t1t so I figured I really should read up on this properly.

Best article I could find is here - goes into the nuts and bolts of things:

https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2016/09/10/oranges-litmus-test/

OK - so here is the critical section:

"The import duties that the UK and EU now charge on oranges are pretty complex. They are designed to protect Mediterranean growers from competition during the harvest season.

Along with oranges, the EU has seasonal tariffs on cut flowers, potatoes, tomatoes, cauliflowers and broccoli, lettuce, celeriac, cucumbers, peas, beans, artichokes, avocados, mandarins (including tangerines, satsumas, etc), grapefruit, grapes, apples, pears, apricots, cherries, peaches, plums, strawberries, kiwi fruit, and sub-categories among them​

​

But the UK has no commercial producers, so a key question is whether the UK can defend continuing with the EU’s tariffs after it leaves without being challenged by other countries — or whether it would want to.

An alternative would be for the UK to set much lower import duties (say, 3.2% all year), which would please non-EU exporters and provide UK consumers with cheaper oranges."

Right: 'whether it would want to'.

This is what I thought all along. Particularly with products we don't produce ourselves (though we don't actually have to stick just to that) - we could have 0% (ZERO) tariffs on oranges (for example). So oranges WOULD be cheaper (assuming we did the sensible thing which we would now be allowed to do - and set tariffs at nothing).

And Remainers accused us of telling porkies during the campaign.

 

[oldgroaner]

Mrs May's propaganda machine is in top gear now, even recruited the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/03/queen-to-be-evacuated-if-brexit-turns-ugly-reports
Cold war plans revived to move royals to safe locations away from London if unrest follows no deal

British officials have revived cold war emergency plans to relocate the royal family should there be riots in London if Britain suffers a disruptive departure from the European Union, two Sunday newspapers have reported.


“These emergency evacuation plans have been in existence since the cold war but have now been repurposed in the event of civil disorder following a no-deal Brexit,” the Sunday Times said, quoting an unnamed source from the government’s Cabinet Office, which handles sensitive administrative issues.


The Mail on Sunday also said it had learnt of plans to move the royal family, including Queen Elizabeth, to safe locations away from London.

Pathetic!

 

[OxygenJames]

you are wrong on oranges.
We buy about half of our oranges from Spain, another half mostly from South Africa.
We pay zero duty on Spanish oranges and about 12% on average on South African oranges at the moment.
After a no deal brexit, we have to charge duty on all oranges prior to concluding any trade deal with the EU and with South Africa, that's 22% on average on citruses, 34% on orange juice.

Read the article.

YOU are wrong on oranges.

https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2016/09/10/oranges-litmus-test/

 

[OxygenJames]

Check your facts, James.

No Deal adds tariff, food will be more expensive, not less.

Even Kenyan green beans and coffee will cost more under WTO.

Like I say - you check YOUR facts.

https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2016/09/10/oranges-litmus-test/

 

[OxygenJames]

So we ruin farming for your American sponsors ? no thank you!

Like I say - try engaging with the argument itself rather than criticising the perceived source.

 

[OxygenJames]

No... The power of England was built on restricted trade. When it had created by its military capitive markets, it then created monopolies.

It also opened up markets and has been a strong proponent of trade - free or otherwise.

 

[OxygenJames]

If we no deal after March 29 we rapidly need to negotiate trade deals with these countries to avoid heavy tariffs and expensive food.

NO WE DON'T!

What so many of you seem to miss - and you are doing here Flecc - is that IT IS UP TO US as to 'how expensive' that food becomes.

To make an obvious point some may not understand: Countries don't charge tariffs on stuff they export - ONLY on stuff they import.

We COULD have ZERO tariffs. On everything if we wanted. THAT would be a genuine free trade situation.

 

[OxygenJames]

I suspect they actually mean JC's lack of leadership over brexit...

Rebel Labour MPs set to quit party and form centre group
Growing discontent over policy on Brexit, anti-Semitism and Venezuela spur breakaway movement

A group of disaffected Labour MPs is preparing to quit the party and form a breakaway movement on the political centre ground amid growing discontent with Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership on Brexit and other key issues including immigration, foreign policy and antisemitism.

The Observer has been told by multiple sources that at least six MPs have been drawing up plans to resign the whip and leave the party soon.

There have also been discussions involving senior figures about a potentially far larger group splitting off at some point after Brexit, if Corbyn fails to do everything possible to oppose Theresa May’s plans for taking the UK out of the EU.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/02/rebel-labour-mps-set-to-quit-party-and-form-centre-group

Latest poll:

 

[Woosh]

Read the article.

https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2016/09/10/oranges-litmus-test/

I did and you are still wrong.

in the absence of a trade deal, our government has to apply tariff to protect local producers and charge at least the current tariff.

that's the current default position until parliament says otherwise.
The default tariff is 34% on orange juice from MFNs while Spanish oranges enjoy zero tariff until we treat Spain as a MFN.

Parliament won't necessarily follow 'the will of the people' anytime soon.

 

[Woosh]

@James, you can check WTO tariff on citruses from their database here:
http://tariffdata.wto.org/

The IFS has a more balanced technical note on what happens if we were going for WTO brexit here: 'The Customs Union, tariff reductions and consumer prices '
https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/bns/BN225.pdf

that tradebetablog is written by an internet influencer and contains a few assumptions that I find unrealistic.

 

[oyster]

@James, you can check WTO tariff on citruses from their database here:
http://tariffdata.wto.org/

The IFS has a more balance technical note on what happens if we were going for WTO brexit here: 'The Customs Union, tariff reductions and consumer prices '
https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/bns/BN225.pdf

that tradebetablog is written by an internet influencer and contains a few assumptions that I find unrealistic.

I also suspect there are other issues which would impact the likelihood of reduced cost to consumers of oranges.

* Increased cost of shipping. Instead of load at farm onto lorry, drive to UK depot, unload, it would have additional lorry-to-ship, transit in ship and ship-to-lorry. And is the required shipping capacity actually available?
* 5/6 weeks in transit (e.g. from SA).
* Reduced life on delivery (12 - 6 = 6 weeks) - even in optimum conditions.
* I suspect increased spoilage rate in transit but have not been able quickly to find figures.
Seasonal and supply issues - will non-EU oranges be available in sufficient quantity at the right time?

 

[Woosh]

Seasonal and supply issues - will non-EU oranges be available in sufficient quantity at the right time?

we buy oranges from different countries for a reason.

 

[oldgroaner]

So - as it turns out - Oranges could well be cheaper after Brexit.

Reading what people say here gave me the impression I had got things totally ar5e about t1t so I figured I really should read up on this properly.

Best article I could find is here - goes into the nuts and bolts of things:

https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2016/09/10/oranges-litmus-test/

OK - so here is the critical section:

"The import duties that the UK and EU now charge on oranges are pretty complex. They are designed to protect Mediterranean growers from competition during the harvest season.

Along with oranges, the EU has seasonal tariffs on cut flowers, potatoes, tomatoes, cauliflowers and broccoli, lettuce, celeriac, cucumbers, peas, beans, artichokes, avocados, mandarins (including tangerines, satsumas, etc), grapefruit, grapes, apples, pears, apricots, cherries, peaches, plums, strawberries, kiwi fruit, and sub-categories among them​

​

But the UK has no commercial producers, so a key question is whether the UK can defend continuing with the EU’s tariffs after it leaves without being challenged by other countries — or whether it would want to.

An alternative would be for the UK to set much lower import duties (say, 3.2% all year), which would please non-EU exporters and provide UK consumers with cheaper oranges."

Right: 'whether it would want to'.

This is what I thought all along. Particularly with products we don't produce ourselves (though we don't actually have to stick just to that) - we could have 0% (ZERO) tariffs on oranges (for example). So oranges WOULD be cheaper (assuming we did the sensible thing which we would now be allowed to do - and set tariffs at nothing).

And Remainers accused us of telling porkies during the campaign.

Because you did, made promises, lied and took bribes from illegal sources, and here you are making a comical attempt to say food will be cheaper, the biggest lie of all.
You have absolutely no proof as usual behind yet another lying leave promise, why do you persist?