Brexit, for once some facts.
- Thread starter flecc
- Start date
What you are ignoring is that after no deal we will immediately fall onto WTO tariffs,you have agreed that the WTO tariff on oranges is high but are making the point that we can decide to put zero tariffs on oranges.
I admit to not fully appreciating the full implications of removing all tariffs,but the impressive lady from the NFU on the TV this morning said that no deal Brexit would be a disaster for U.K. farmers.
You are forgetting that after no deal Brexit we will be desperate to achieve a free trade deal with EU countries,which will be negotiated by the EU ,not the individual EU countries. We are going to need to compromise with the EU so as to achieve the important trade deal with our biggest trading partners,that may take many years,the U.K. government are not going to be cavalier and do damage to EU farmers which will be thrown back at the U.K. in negotiations.....we all must agree that the EU seem to be much better at trade negotiations than is our government.
KudosDave
Yes, and to give further information:
The present X Trail is built at Sunderland but in very low numbers now due to dieselgate, so that is influencing the decision to abandon plans to build the new model there. If that could have been successful it would be an addition, but dieselgate makes that less likely since it's always been a diesel only model and may be again using diesel. That we dont know at present.
Nissan's suffering over dieselgate has already happened with the slump in X-Trail sales and a sharp reduction in Qashqai sales, that also being heavily diesel dependent.
Nissan's overall car sales in 2017/2018 are 16% down on what they once were and the Sunderland workforce down from 9000 to 7000, all due to dieselgate.
Some 28,000 are employed overall for Nissan's Sunderland production, the rest being in the several satellite firms in the North East who supply Nissan with parts for their operation. No doubt they will have been affected too.
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You mentioned Dieselgate - I simply questioned whether or not that would likely be a factor in Nissan's calculations.
You suggested that:
Then people will pay extra for the high Vit C ones - or not. But. They will have the choice.
They WON'T have the choice if they don't know.
You might not care. Many seem to consider oranges a good source of vitamin C and should be able readily to find out how much is present.
From the Institute of Fiscal Studies.....it sort of says that we were all correct,the ultimate effect on food prices is actually dependant upon political decisions.
How food prices will change following the UK’s actual departure from the EU remains highly uncertain. Currently, the UK benefits from tariff-free trade within the EU, and the UK and other EU members levy common tariffs on products imported into the EU from other countries. As is generally the case across the world, these tariffs are, on average, higher on agricultural products than on non-agricultural products and there is a lot of variation in tariffs both across and within broad food groups.
If the UK leaves the EU customs union, it would be free to adjust the tariffs it charges on agricultural goods. Under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules, the UK would not be able to set tariffs that discriminate between trading partners, except as part of a free trade agreement or to give developing countries special access to its market. If the UK and the post-Brexit EU fail to strike a free trade deal, it is likely tariffs would be imposed on EU imports into the UK, as the UK would be unable to impose zero tariffs on imports from the EU without also extending tariff-free access to all other WTO members. This would raise the price of food imported from the EU, which is the major source of food imports into the UK, accounting for 70% of gross food imports. Therefore if the UK did not strike a free trade deal with the EU, food prices would be likely to rise significantly. This could potentially be ameliorated if the UK reduced tariffs across the board by a substantial margin and/or decided to accept cheaper food imports that do not meet current EU regulatory standards. There would also be costs associated with non-tariff barriers, such as customs checks.
The UK could reduce tariffs from their current level, and may choose to do so, especially for imports of foods that are not domestically produced – for example, oranges and olives. It would also be free to strike free trade deals with other countries. In addition, if the UK ceased to be a full member of the EU single market, it would be able to apply different regulatory standards to food imports, leading to the possibility of importing hitherto banned produce (such as chlorinated chicken). Such changes would serve to lower the price of foods imported from non-EU countries. That said, most advanced countries seek to protect their domestic farmers through a combination of price supports, subsidies and trade barriers. The extent to which the UK would choose to act differently in this regard is not clear at this stage.
Tariff changes and movements in the exchange rate directly affect the cost of getting imported food products onto supermarket shelves. This will naturally feed into the prices faced by consumers for imported goods. The extent to which tariff changes and exchange rate movements feed through to prices is uncertain and may vary across goods. The prices of domestically produced products are also likely to change, for two reasons. First, many domestically produced products use imported inputs, and changes to firms’ costs will tend to feed through to the prices they charge for their final products. Second, changes in the price of imported goods are likely to lead to changes in the price of similar domestically produced goods because of competitive effects: for example, if the prices of imported goods rise, then domestic producers who compete in the same markets might take advantage of the opportunity to increase their prices too.
How might these changes affect different households? The first thing to consider is that lower-income households allocate a higher proportion of their spending to food than higher-income households (23% of spending for the lowest-income tenth of households versus 10% for the highest-income tenth). Poor households are therefore more exposed to rises in the general level of food prices.
How food prices will change following the UK’s actual departure from the EU remains highly uncertain. Currently, the UK benefits from tariff-free trade within the EU, and the UK and other EU members levy common tariffs on products imported into the EU from other countries. As is generally the case across the world, these tariffs are, on average, higher on agricultural products than on non-agricultural products and there is a lot of variation in tariffs both across and within broad food groups.
If the UK leaves the EU customs union, it would be free to adjust the tariffs it charges on agricultural goods. Under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules, the UK would not be able to set tariffs that discriminate between trading partners, except as part of a free trade agreement or to give developing countries special access to its market. If the UK and the post-Brexit EU fail to strike a free trade deal, it is likely tariffs would be imposed on EU imports into the UK, as the UK would be unable to impose zero tariffs on imports from the EU without also extending tariff-free access to all other WTO members. This would raise the price of food imported from the EU, which is the major source of food imports into the UK, accounting for 70% of gross food imports. Therefore if the UK did not strike a free trade deal with the EU, food prices would be likely to rise significantly. This could potentially be ameliorated if the UK reduced tariffs across the board by a substantial margin and/or decided to accept cheaper food imports that do not meet current EU regulatory standards. There would also be costs associated with non-tariff barriers, such as customs checks.
The UK could reduce tariffs from their current level, and may choose to do so, especially for imports of foods that are not domestically produced – for example, oranges and olives. It would also be free to strike free trade deals with other countries. In addition, if the UK ceased to be a full member of the EU single market, it would be able to apply different regulatory standards to food imports, leading to the possibility of importing hitherto banned produce (such as chlorinated chicken). Such changes would serve to lower the price of foods imported from non-EU countries. That said, most advanced countries seek to protect their domestic farmers through a combination of price supports, subsidies and trade barriers. The extent to which the UK would choose to act differently in this regard is not clear at this stage.
Tariff changes and movements in the exchange rate directly affect the cost of getting imported food products onto supermarket shelves. This will naturally feed into the prices faced by consumers for imported goods. The extent to which tariff changes and exchange rate movements feed through to prices is uncertain and may vary across goods. The prices of domestically produced products are also likely to change, for two reasons. First, many domestically produced products use imported inputs, and changes to firms’ costs will tend to feed through to the prices they charge for their final products. Second, changes in the price of imported goods are likely to lead to changes in the price of similar domestically produced goods because of competitive effects: for example, if the prices of imported goods rise, then domestic producers who compete in the same markets might take advantage of the opportunity to increase their prices too.
How might these changes affect different households? The first thing to consider is that lower-income households allocate a higher proportion of their spending to food than higher-income households (23% of spending for the lowest-income tenth of households versus 10% for the highest-income tenth). Poor households are therefore more exposed to rises in the general level of food prices.
Nissan has confirmed it is abandoning plans to build a new model of one of its flagship vehicles at its Sunderland plant.
The Japanese car manufacturer had said in 2016 it would be building the new version of the X-Trail SUV at the factory along with its next-generation Qashqai but on Sunday it said it was moving production to Japan.
The Japanese firm said: “While we have taken this decision for business reasons, the continued uncertainty around the UK’s future relationship with the EU is not helping companies like ours to plan for the future.”
It added that other future models planned for the Sunderland plant – the next-generation Juke and Qashqai – were unaffected.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/03/nissan-confirms-new-x-trail-will-not-be-built-in-sunderland
I think I would add "for now" to that last sentence.
Where in the referendum did the leavers explain we would have to accept food that does not meet current EU standards?
Really? so you are saying it isn't the ethos of the leave campaign, that doesn't want another referendum and threatens "Trouble in the Streets" through certain MP's?
Off you go.
No, your argument is lets make a trade agreement with the US and become a vassal state, they can privatise the National Health service and we'll dismantle the Welfare State and bring back poverty in an even bigger way.
All in the name of two things
Lets Make America Great Again
The lie of free trade that will never work to our advantage.
We are not living in a Market, but a Society, which greedy idiots seem to lose sight off.
The probability of Brexit not causing massive suffering to many people is virtually nil.
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That sums up the position. The ill effects on Nissan to date have been dieselgate and an associated reaction against 4 x 4s and I'm sure that's been the big factor in the 4 x 4 X-Trail decision, the possible Brexit effect being as Nissan say, not helping.
The future decisions on the new Qashqai and Juke models in a year or two's time will no doubt be entirely based on Brexit outcomes. Having been stung by diesel's problems, Nissan are likely to belatedly go plug-in petrol-electric hybrid since the heavy X-Trail and Qashqai need plenty of torque which moderate size pure petrol i.c. doesn't supply, and hybrid is the fashion now anyway.
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Will Nissan stay once Britain leaves? How one factory explains the Brexit business dilemma
In the 1980s, Thatcher’s government sold Britain as ‘a gateway to Europe’. Nissan came to Sunderland and thrived – but now its future is uncertain. By David Conn
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/oct/04/will-nissan-stay-once-britain-leaves-sunderland-brexit-business-dilemma
Something which is definitely worthy of a tag something like, let's see, "Project Fear". Don't you think?
I've previously posted that any transit delays and/or tariffs will mean the loss of all our motor manufacturing to mainland Europe, Nissan included.
It's not part of the X-Trail decision though, that's joining the current production in Japan since it just isn't selling well enough in Europe to justify making it here.
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5:34 AM - 3 Feb 2019
Did you write some of this tripe Oxygen James? or did Bannon?
It's looking threadbare now
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What argument? you had already lost, so what point was there?
We don't need oranges anyway, the good old British grown potato has some 40% of the vitamin C of oranges. Since we eat far more spuds than oranges we aren't going to go short of vitamin C, and it's in all other fruits and veg as well.
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