Brexit, for once some facts.

Woosh

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May 19, 2012
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Dont blink.
I posted about the tories compromise this morning.
what's going on is a bit of a play.
The EU has already told TM that the only way to remove the backstop is permanent customs union.
the backstop will soon be turned into a front stop.
then the circus will come back to town on the 14th of Feb after the ERG and the DUP vote down TM's meaningful vote Feb 13th.
it reminds me of DC promising his Eurosceptics that he was going to win back control from the EU and we all know how successful he was.
 
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flecc

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Oct 25, 2006
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But heck at least we'll be out (of a fashion) - and with some sort of a deal - and with the ability to strike other trade deals - and no freedom of movement - and out from control from the ECJ -
Too early for counting chickens I think. May's deal includes some ECJ control and the great repeal bill includes many regulations with the ECJ as the final arbiter. So we wont see the back of the ECJ for decades.

As for striking independent trade deals, customs union is still being promoted and that would prevent those.

I'm not even tentatively forecasting anything yet, since I see Europe rebuffing May just as they did Cameron on his last desperate attempt to deal.

N.B. Post crossed with Woosh comments on customs union and Cameron. Great minds and all that. ;)
.
 

tommie

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Mar 13, 2013
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Making the difference
DUP leader tweets...
The DUP leader in Westminster, Nigel Dodds, highlights his party's importance to the prime minister.

Theresa May's government is reliant on DUP votes to pass legislation.

So the ball now very much in the court of the EU and their Irish puppets, it`s a case of our terms or we run the clock down and walk away

 
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Fingers

Esteemed Pedelecer
Feb 9, 2016
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Making the difference
DUP leader tweets...
The DUP leader in Westminster, Nigel Dodds, highlights his party's importance to the prime minister.

Theresa May's government is reliant on DUP votes to pass legislation.

So the ball now very much in the court of the EU and their Irish puppets, it`s a case of our terms or we run the clock down and walk away


The Irish government is being staggeringly stupid.

Although the DUP and The Tories and Labour and SNP run them close.

The liberals are of no consequence.
 

Danidl

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Sep 29, 2016
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Making the difference
DUP leader tweets...
The DUP leader in Westminster, Nigel Dodds, highlights his party's importance to the prime minister.

Theresa May's government is reliant on DUP votes to pass legislation.

So the ball now very much in the court of the EU and their Irish puppets, it`s a case of our terms or we run the clock down and walk away

No. Can you see that NOTHING has changed. ?. In fact the UK is now in even a worse state than it was yesterday. It has voted not to seek an extension. It has voted to only work on removing the Backstop. It has voted not to have any more customs infrastructure on the island of Ireland.
The EU and Ireland will wear a Backstop limited only to the Island of Ireland.
The EU and Ireland will wear no backstop if it is traded for a PERMANENT Customs union. .. That would be a much better solution.
The risk of a crashout is higher tonight than yesterday. So if that is what you want ,rest easy. I suspect the financial markets will believe so also.
 

oldgroaner

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The Losers suffered major defeats tonight to stop Brexit.

Here's what they should have done...


Won a referendum in 2016. :D:D:D
With Putins money?:cool:

Here is a question for you Tommie, if we crash out without an agreement, what is to stop people flooding in and out across the non existent border between NI and Eire?

Smuggling will go through the roof and crime with it.
You will end up wishing for a customs union. Either that will happen or the inevitable
union with the south, and that will make everyone happy, once they see how sensible the idea is.
 
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oldgroaner

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Now can we get back on topic please and you must stop being a disruptive influence on the thread. Your behaviour is unfair to other forum members who wish to debate Brexit. Consider others and not just yourself.
There seems to be an echo round here
 
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oldgroaner

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Seeing how deflated Bercow looked sure made my evening.
This is going exactly as expected May will get here deal through and it will be Brino not Brexit, the Tory's will accept the deal after a minor concession on the backstop and we will be out as Rule takers not rule makers.
It will create havoc in the country, but that is what you voted for.
A Vassal state of the EU
And all because of fear of Corbyn
Then it will be a case of grovelling to the EU for a trade deal
 
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oldgroaner

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Making the difference
DUP leader tweets...
The DUP leader in Westminster, Nigel Dodds, highlights his party's importance to the prime minister.

Theresa May's government is reliant on DUP votes to pass legislation.

So the ball now very much in the court of the EU and their Irish puppets, it`s a case of our terms or we run the clock down and walk away

Wrong again according to the Daily Mail
"
May owes Brexit showdown triumph to 14 Labour MPs who defied Corbyn's demands and put country before party to vote against a delay and help give PM mandate to press the EU for a better deal

So much for DUP power, they only helped May
 
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oldgroaner

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Yesterday we had the spectacle of the Prime Minister Voting against a deal she had taken two years to obtain, and if that wasn't comcal enough she is going to go back and repeat the the process to obtain what is actually only a tweak over the Northern Irish backstop (non negotiable) because the Tory vermin have somehow come round to holding their noses about the rest of the deal that previously was totally unacceptable.

Even the leave fanatics in the Express are now calling Mogg a traitor!
The backstop is only supposed to kick in if alternative arrangements, like the hardline Brexiters' dreams about frictionless technology, do not come to fruition. So applying them now was like answering a question with the question. What's your alternative arrangement if the alternative arrangements don't work? Well, an alternative arrangement of course.

The EU will come up with a few quotable scraps over the temporary nature of the backstop at no cost to them, and that is all it takes to get the Tory party back on line and Mays Brino to pass.
fear guarantees it, and the EU will have got the agreement through parliament it imposed on us .
They only ruled out dropping the clean break yesterday as they imagined incorrectly that the EU so feared it they would cave in rather than take that risk, forgettting they can afford it.
We can't.
 
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oldgroaner

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From Der Spiegel if May succeeds in reopening negotiations , Spain is lobying for the question of Gibraltar put back on the table and other states want to look again at the question of fishing rights in British waters

This is not going to go well, is it?
 
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OxygenJames

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Yesterday we had the spectacle of the Prime Minister Voting against a deal she had taken two years to obtain, and if that wasn't comcal enough she is going to go back and repeat the the process to obtain what is actually only a tweak over the Northern Irish backstop (non negotiable) because the Tory vermin have somehow come round to holding their noses about the rest of the deal that previously was totally unacceptable.

Even the leave fanatics in the Express are now calling Mogg a traitor!
The backstop is only supposed to kick in if alternative arrangements, like the hardline Brexiters' dreams about frictionless technology, do not come to fruition. So applying them now was like answering a question with the question. What's your alternative arrangement if the alternative arrangements don't work? Well, an alternative arrangement of course.

The EU will come up with a few quotable scraps over the temporary nature of the backstop at no cost to them, and that is all it takes to get the Tory party back on line and Mays Brino to pass.
fear guarantees it, and the EU will have got the agreement through parliament it imposed on us .
They only ruled out dropping the clean break yesterday as they imagined incorrectly that the EU so feared it they would cave in rather than take that risk, forgettting they can afford it.
We can't.
iyho
 
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Woosh

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The risk of a crashout is higher tonight than yesterday.
it's about the same.
there is a majority against no deal.
TM's deal will be voted on again Feb 13th.
Expect the ERG and DUP to say what she comes back with is not enough, the ERG does not want a deal and the DUP a backstop or a front stop.
Yvette Cooper will come back with another amendment, this time it'll be adopted.
Unless TM can do a deal with JC.
 
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OxygenJames

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As a devoted 'Brexiteer' I get the daily email from 'Brexit Central' (run by the remnants of Dominic Cummings Leave group).

I thought you might like to see what the other side is saying:

"Good morning,

Yesterday was another vital day on the road to Brexit. MPs voted down the various attempts to use parliamentary chicanery to delay our departure from the EU and instead gave Theresa May a positive mandate to return to Brussels to renegotiate the deal that they rejected so resoundingly a fortnight ago.

As I watched the opening speeches of yesterday’s debate from the Press Gallery in the Commons - you can see our video highlights from the day here - I detected a sense of peace breaking out in the Conservative Party. News had emerged of the ‘Malthouse Compromise’, details of which we carry here, with determined Remainers like Nicky Morgan and equally determined Leavers like Steve Baker singing from the same hymn sheet; there was also an endorsement for the plan from the DUP and a raft of leading international trade experts.

Theresa May held her own in the Commons and you could feel the vast majority of her MPs falling in behind her bid to have them back Sir Graham Brady’s amendment demanding the hated Irish backstop in the Withdrawal Agreement be replaced. Jeremy Corbyn, on the other hand, struggled to command the chamber and refused to take many interventions, even from his own side - who gave him the weakest of whimpers when he sat down.

Determined Brexiteer Tory MPs like Peter Bone and Jacob Rees-Mogg had both made warm overtures to May during interventions on her in the chamber and during the course of the day it became clear that the European Research Group of Brexit-backing Tory MPs would indeed back Brady’s amendment as May called on MPs “to show the European Union what it will take to get a deal through this House of Commons”, setting out that what she was was talking about was “not a further exchange of letters but a significant and legally binding change to the Withdrawal Agreement”.

When it came to the voting - on seven different amendments in total - there were significant defeats for the attempts to override Commons Standing Orders and snatch control of the parliamentary agenda in order to delay Brexit. Dominic Grieve’s attempt to seize six days of Commons' time for Brexit debates on amendable motions was defeated by 321 votes to 301 - a majority of 20. While 15 Conservative MPs backed the amendment, 14 Labour MPs voted against it. Similarly, Yvette Cooper’s plan to have MPs spend next Tuesday debating her Bill directing the Prime Minister to seek an extension to the Article 50 period was thwarted by 321 votes to 298 - a majority of 23. 17 Conservative MPs backed her, but 14 Labour MPs actively opposed her and the number of Labour abstentions hitting double figures.

There was one vote in which the Government failed to get its way - a non-binding assertion rejecting the notion of leaving the EU without a deal, tabled by Dame Caroline Spelman. It passed by a majority of 8 - not entirely surprising given that almost all MPs of all hues do indeed want a deal and that they ration their rebellions for the divisions that really count.

And when it to came to the all important Brady amendment, Tory and Labour rebels virtually cancelled each other out as the House of Commons MPs endorsed it with a majority of 16, sending a direct message to Brussels that they can expect Theresa May back at the negotiating table with a demand for a better deal.

My analysis of all last night’s votes can be seen here.

Defying the Labour whip in six of those seven votes was Labour Leave stalwart Graham Stringer, who writes for us today with reflections on recent events. “It has always been an essential part of our democracy that all votes are equal and that the minority accepts the majority decision,” he writes; but “both these fundamentals are being challenged by the political establishment of left and right whose sense of entitlement has overtaken their sense of democracy,” he concludes. Click here to read his piece - and Graham will be speaking at a Bruges Group event alongside Priti Patel and John Redwoodin Westminster at lunchtime today (details here).

Back to last night’s events and responding to the results, Theresa May rose in the Commons to confirm she would now seek “legally binding changes” to her deal:

“It is now clear that there is a route that can secure a substantial and sustainable majority in this House for leaving the EU with a deal. We will now take this mandate forward and seek to obtain legally binding changes to the withdrawal agreement that deal with concerns on the backstop while guaranteeing no return to a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland… As well as making clear what changes it needs to approve the withdrawal agreement, the House has also reconfirmed its view that it does not want to leave the EU without a withdrawal agreement and future framework. I agree that we should not leave without a deal. However, simply opposing no deal is not enough to stop it. The Government will now redouble their efforts to get a deal that this House can support.”

Watch her reaction in full here.

So the ball is very much now in the EU’s court. The House of Commons has shown what kind of deal could command a majority, although the early signs last night were that Brussels is intent on being intransigent. A spokesman for European Council President Donald Tusk welcomed “the UK Parliament’s ambition to avoid a no-deal scenario”, but added:

“The Withdrawal Agreement is and remains the best and only way to ensure an orderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union. The backstop is part of the Withdrawal Agreement, and the Withdrawal Agreement is not open for renegotiation.”

All of which means that if the EU is not willing to play ball, then the prospect of an exit on WTO terms very much remains a distinct possibility and preparations for that eventuality must continue apace.

Theresa May will be back in the Commons for Prime Minister’s Questions at midday today, while also taking place in Parliament today we have: Dominic Raab giving evidence to the Northern Ireland Select Committee at 9.30am on the Withdrawal Agreement and the backstop; an International Trade Committee session at 10am on the progress being made on rolling over EU Association Agreements for which the Foreign Office is responsible; Steve Baker is before the European Scrutiny Committee at 2.30pm; and the Trade Bill back in the Lords for Day 3 of Committee Stage after 3.30pm. And by a happy coincidence, MEPs in the European Parliament in Brussels are holding a debate on Brexit this afternoon, with an intervention expected from European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.

As ever, do follow BrexitCentral on Twitter to keep abreast of all the latest developments as they happen.

Jonathan Isaby
Editor, BrexitCentral

@isaby
 

Woosh

Trade Member
May 19, 2012
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simple question: what will the no deal brexiters do when TM comes back next week with the WA treaty unchanged?
the tories will remain as split after as before.
 

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