Brexit, for once some facts.

[Woosh]

There are two documents circulating at present. A Deal and a proposal. The Deal is about the facts of withdrawal. The proposal is more aspirational. The HoC is required to vote on the DEAL. on 11 Dec.
Tilsons post was about the Deal.
The Deal exists, it will not be re negociated by the EU inside a 4 month window, if ever. So believing that it may, is wishful thinking
As before I have no wish to engage in internal UK political matters,so what nuances British Politicians put on various aspects of the prospectus is an internal matter. At this moment in time, the proposal is fluid and aspirational.

there is no point asking MPs to separate the political declaration from the withdrawal deal. The MPs will vote for the whole package. The EU can still negotiate well into January on the smaller aspects such as adding more flexibility into how NI can be pulled out of the customs union and SM.

 

[Danidl]

there is no point asking MPs to separate the political declaration from the withdrawal deal. The MPs will vote for the whole package. The EU can still negotiate well into January on the smaller aspects such as adding more flexibility into how NI can be pulled out of the customs union and SM.

Yes the EU could negotiate on such minor matters, as you see them, but why would they ?. They may be minor to you , but they are very much linked to a major strategic requirement of an EU member state. The reputational damage to EU credibility would be such that that modification is unthinkable.
There may well be tinkering, but they will be very minor . But remember the EU has agreed to put the Deal to the EU Parliament AFTER the UK has voted YES. So if the UK defers or rejects the Deal, the clock is still ticking.

British political parties may well be seeking short term electral gains, but the stakes are very high,for the UK. It would be very unwise to assume the EU will blink first.
A no Deal can be absorbed by the EU as an entity, much easier than by the UK. Obviously near neighbors like Ireland will be severely hurt, perhaps almost as much as the UK. .But we could expect support from the EU.

 

[anotherkiwi]

Yes the EU could negotiate on such minor matters, as you see them, but why would they ?. They may be minor to you , but they are very much linked to a major strategic requirement of an EU member state. The reputational damage to EU credibility would be such that that modification is unthinkable.
There may well be tinkering, but they will be very minor . But remember the EU has agreed to put the Deal to the EU Parliament AFTER the UK has voted YES. So if the UK defers or rejects the Deal, the clock is still ticking.

British political parties may well be seeking short term electral gains, but the stakes are very high,for the UK. It would be very unwise to assume the EU will blink first.
A no Deal can be absorbed by the EU as an entity, much easier than by the UK. Obviously near neighbors like Ireland will be severely hurt, perhaps almost as much as the UK. .But we could expect support from the EU.

You do have those 12 billion € Apple gave you on that escrow account...

 

[oldgroaner]

it's just my point of view OG.

Fair enough

 

[oldgroaner]

Lets see now
The referendum was a simply choice leave stay
Remain made exaggerated claims of immediate disaster,but the supposed immediate exit didn't happen
Leave promises not merely £350 million for the NHS, but also there was no questions of us leaving the Single Market or the customs union

So what was the offer on sale?

£350 million for the NHS,
Make our own laws
Secure our borders
Stay in the Single Market
Stay in the customs union
End free movement.
Control immigration
We won't pay a divorce settlement.
A trade deal with the EU would be the easiest in Human History
Quick Phone call to the German Car makers will do the trick
We will immediately be better off
There are no down sides only considerable up sides.


And what has been lost since

£350 million for the NHS,
Stay in the single Market
Stay in the customs union
We won't pay a divorce settlement.
A trade deal with the EU would be the easiest in Human History
Quick Phone call to the German Car makers will do the trick
We will immediately be better off
There are no down sides only considerable up sides.


So what advantage are now available?

For the Public
Keeping out Foreigners from the EU, but nothing more than that.
For the Elite
Protection of their Offshore Assets from the the EU
The long sought opportunity to undermine working rights and conditions and safety standards in pursuit of profit.
When things go wrong it's Christmas for Hedge Fund vermin like Jackass Grease Smug

And the disadvantages?
For the Public

Disruption of the NHS due to staff shortages with EU staff leaving the country
And privatisation of the NHS
We lose the right to free movement as well!
Job losses that are already happening due to the uncertainty and obvious movement of business into mainland Europe.
Continued incompetent government that struggled while in the EU and is obviously going to make a complete balls up when we leave it.

For the Elite

None that spring to mind, for them its a mixture of Christmas and Birthday rolled into one

 

[Fingers]

Lets see now
The referendum was a simply choice leave stay
Remain made exaggerated claims of immediate disaster,but the supposed immediate exit didn't happen
Leave promises not merely £350 million for the NHS, but also there was no questions of us leaving the Single Market or the customs union

So what was the offer on sale?
Make our own laws
Secure our borders
Stay in the Single Market
Stay in the customs union
End free movement.
And what has been lost since
Stay in the single Market
Stay in the customs union[/S]

How could leave promise 350m to the NHS?

It wasn’t a political party. Please stick to the facts.

Thank you.

 

[tillson]

Without it, planes will not take off from EU airports to UK destinations and vice versa, because there is no assurance or insurances, that they will be able to return.

That is not true. It is precisely that sort of statement which undermines the case for remaining in the EU. People read it, know that it is not true and then begin to wonder what else is BS. Both sides, Leave and Remain are guilty of this type of behaviour.

 

[oldgroaner]

How could leave promise 350m to the NHS?

It wasn’t a political party. Please stick to the facts.

Thank you.

I did ! leave was a side in the issue, Not a political party any more than Remain was ,if you don't understand simple things like that, refrain from comment

Out of interest,where do you think the idea and money for this message display came from?
Here is your answer

Now, finally, do you understand?

 

[Woosh]

For the Public
Keeping out Foreigners from the EU, but nothing more than that.

it's not keeping out foreigners. A net 274,000 non-EU citizens settled here last year and we still need a considerable number in the foreseeable future.
The point is to limit the number of low wage immigrants to force employers into employing and training the local youths.
The benefit to society is much more than just boosting wages at the low end of the labour market.

 

[Woosh]

They may be minor to you , but they are very much linked to a major strategic requirement of an EU member state. The reputational damage to EU credibility would be such that that modification is unthinkable.

that's an exaggeration. The GFA can be renegotiated to reflect changing circumstances if the UK pulls out of the customs union.
All it takes is for the ROI to make some concession in return for clear economic gain. If you move the customs check to the Irish Sea for both North and South then the problem of sanitary cordon and customs levy can be solved.

 

[Danidl]

That is not true. It is precisely that sort of statement which undermines the case for remaining in the EU. People read it, know that it is not true and then begin to wonder what else is BS. Both sides, Leave and Remain are guilty of this type of behaviour.

Please explain the circumstances under which it will be untrue. You are more conversant with aviation matters than I . But is it not the case that landing rights and taking off rights are local state matters,and in the case of say Germany and regional airports this is the local federal land . The UK as a member state had negotiated these and competition law between member states gave them equal rights. Without a deal these rights disappear.
Have these airlines negotiated alternative insurance cover?.
Is it not also the case that commercial aviation requires that all flights need a licence to take off,from the flight control authority. Who can issue that on 30th March. ?.
I am not saying or implying that all aviation to and from UK to the rest of the world will cease..there are UN moderated international agreements eg IATA etc. Overflying of EU terrotories being unaffected.But regional traffic between UK and EU member states will be adversely affected. Ryanair put the UK on notice some 18 months ago.

 

[oldgroaner]

it's not keeping out foreigners. A net 274,000 non-EU citizens settled here last year and we still need a considerable number in the foreseeable future.
The point is to limit the number of low wage immigrants to force employers into employing and training the local youths.
The benefit to society is much more than just boosting wages at the low end of the labour market.

Do you really believe that? honestly?
What was to stop money being spent on training our own people here, right now, and what is to change the situation in the future?
This idea you have is absolute nonsense and amounts to believing in miracles.

Either party will simply continue as we are and let in enough foreigners to avoid the expense of training our own, and even worse fill all the valuable jobs with them just as they do now, denying them to the locals.

This is the biggest confidence trick of them all, they mean simply to kid the public they are "Keeping Foreigners out" and are doing them a favour while mugging them.

I find your excessive trust disturbing
Brexiteer politicians have no intention for it to turn into a "Benefit to Society"

 

[Danidl]

that's an exaggeration. The GFA can be renegotiated to reflect changing circumstances if the UK pulls out of the customs union.
All it takes is for the ROI to make some concession in return for clear economic gain. If you move the customs check to the Irish Sea for both North and South then the problem of sanitary cordon and customs levy can be solved.

You obviously do not understand how linked the agricultural sectors are . Milk produced in the NI is processed in the south, and then returned for distribution back via NI for consumption in Manchester. The same will be true for any other produce though of course the pathways are different. The quality of Irish foodstuffs is a strategic requirement.it is literally our bread and butter . It will be totally undermined if unvetted, non EU compliant feedstock is allowed enter .
Ulster farmers know this, just as surely as our Munster and Connaught producers do.
This also links into another strategy..our reliance on a world class pharmaceutical industry. Many of the more exotic preparations are grown on biological hosts, and full traceability from say egg white to vaccine is necessary.

 

[Woosh]

Do you really believe that? honestly?
What was to stop money being spent on training our own people here, right now, and what is to change the situation in the future?

If I want to avoid EU import levy on Chinese e-bikes, I have to assemble them here, that means more work for the local lads. If I had a few acres of strawberries needing to be picked, I'd pay more to get them picked because I know I can charge more for my strawberries. By allowing in as much strawberries from outside the UK as needed, you are actually giving the advantage to the farmers, not the local youths.
That is why although I am a natural LibDem/conservative, I like JC's policies.

 

[Fingers]

I did ! leave was a side in the issue, Not a political party any more than Remain was ,if you don't understand simple things like that, refrain from comment

Out of interest,where do you think the idea and money for this message display came from?
Here is your answer

Now, finally, do you understand?

Dotard. You make it too easy.

'Let's fund our NHS instead' is a suggestion not a pledge. Leave was not a political party capable of carrying out manifesto promises. I could say the government should use the money saved from leaving the EU and give it to Tottenham Hotspur. It has same weight as the other suggestion and just as likely to happen.

Remain on the other hand had the ENTIRE political establishment bar some idiot ukippers. The government sent a leaflet to every house in the country. The official oppositon campaigned for remain as did the SNP, Plaid Cymru etc. And still you couldn't put forward a strong enough reason to remain bar the fact you can go on holiday easily and get a nice cheap plumber from Poland.

Stop acting thick. You're better than this.

 

[oldgroaner]

Dotard. You make it too easy.

'Let's fund our NHS instead' is a suggestion not a pledge. Leave was not a political party capable of carrying out manifesto promises. I could say the government should use the money saved from leaving the EU and give it to Tottenham Hotspur. It has same weight as the other suggestion and just as likely to happen.

Remain on the other hand had the ENTIRE political establishment bar some idiot ukippers. The government sent a leaflet to every house in the country. The official oppositon campaigned for remain as did the SNP, Plaid Cymru etc. And still you couldn't put forward a strong enough reason to remain bar the fact you can go on holiday easily and get a nice cheap plumber from Poland.

Stop acting thick. You're better than this.

I know you just want to clown around but really

"'Let's fund our NHS instead' is a suggestion not a pledge."
Then it wasn't worth paying to put in on a bus was it?
you really are destitute of an argument in favour of Brexit coming out with corny excuses like that.
Tell me why did Farage say "It was a mistake for leave to say that?"

 

[Fingers]

Clearly you are an even bigger idiot than I thought]
"'Let's fund our NHS instead' is a suggestion not a pledge."

Go away and grow up

Great reply.

 

[oldgroaner]

Great reply.

I've changed it but I'm quite happy to call you an idiot if you think that's a great reply, after all it is true
Fair trade for "Dotard" one might say
And for your information the contest wasn't between political parties,but very well funded factions, often with money from very questionable sources some of which was handled by that pack of hyenas the DUP.

 

[Woosh]

you can read the legal advise written by the GA:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/761153/EU_Exit_-_Legal_position_on_the_Withdrawal_Agreement.pdf

Interesting point: it excludes fisheries as of the end of the transition. Tariffs will be charged on fish products sold by the UK to the EU. I can see there will be opportunities to sell cheap 'Irish scallops' to the French!

 

[flecc]

How could leave promise 350m to the NHS?

It wasn’t a political party. Please stick to the facts.

Boris Johnson was the official leader of the Leave campaign, a member of the Tory party and approved by the Tory government in that role.

He not only promised a fictitious £350 millions for the NHS but has continued to defend that statement ever since, despite it having no basis in fact.

Ergo it was a Leave promise that Brext would have that result, which of course hasn't materialised. Instead the proposed deal is us continuing to pay billions into the EU for many years.

That's the facts and OG listed them all perfectly, clearly illustrating what a disaster Brexit already is.
.