Brexit, for once some facts.

[Woosh]

The Lisbon treaty came about having started in 2004, had rejections of first attempts, then finally ratified in 2009. Just how can anyone seriously suggest that the treaty could be changed by 29 March 2019 at 11 p.m.?

later, not by March 29 because negotiation for any FTA won't start until the UK has left.
At the moment, it seems that the UK has more to lose (nobody would win anything) but by the end of the transition, the likely cost for both sides will be known to a fair degree of accuracy. It will then be crunch time, which way will the UK go? The EU would throw a lifeline because of self interest.

 

[oyster]

later, not by March 29

Which means we would be past the point of withdrawing our A50 - that is exit day. Any time after, we would be subject to A49.

We couldn't even request consideration of re-admittance on any other than A49 basis unless rEU had decided, what? spontaneously?, to change the treaty. If we have to say "Please let into the gang again.", then see the treaty changed, followed by being allow some sort of privileged fast-track re-entry, where are we in time? 2030?

All the worst that will happen is likely to hit in the next few years. After that, we might be in a much worse place, but not a place from which we can readily escape even by rejoining. The entire process of applying to rejoin and going through tortuous discussions will itself be disruptive. And what would happen to any of the fabled trade deals that we might, just possibly, have negotiated?

 

[oldtom]

This is just so unfair!



Tom

 

[Woosh]

We couldn't even request consideration of re-admittance on any other than A49 basis unless rEU had decided, what? spontaneously?, to change the treaty. If we have to say "Please let into the gang again.", then see the treaty changed, followed by being allow some sort of privileged fast-track re-entry, where are we in time? 2030?

it's an issue for those in the EU who would have to consider realpolitik. by the end of 2020, the UK will still be 100% functioning member of the EU, not voting, not in name but still the most important country in Europe after Germany. There is no need to do anything physical other than a treaty change.

 

[oyster]

it's an issue for those in the EU who would have to consider realpolitik. by the end of 2020, the UK will still be 100% functioning member of the EU, not voting, not in name but still the most important country in Europe after Germany. There is no need to do anything physical other than a treaty change.

The BBC website said this on 1 February 2018:

The EU, which published its demands earlier this week, says the transition should not extend beyond 31 December 2020, 21 months after Brexit day.

To me, that says transition will be over. We will NOT still be functioning as an EU member.

 

[Woosh]

The BBC website said this on 1 February 2018:

The EU, which published its demands earlier this week, says the transition should not extend beyond 31 December 2020, 21 months after Brexit day.

To me, that says transition will be over. We will NOT still be functioning as an EU member.

that's why the phoney war will go until brexit day, TM will deliver brexit, then the government will have to put money where its mouth is, see for real how many countries queuing up to do business with us. I guess some will, some won't - if there are enough willing partners, the EU will have to offer better than CETA. If not, it'll be time to tell voters that we'll need a change of course, in early 2020.

 

[oyster]

in early 2020

When we have ALREADY LEFT THE EU!

 

[Woosh]

When we have ALREADY LEFT THE EU!

that (transition) lends a more accurate meaning to 'brexit in name only'.
We don't know how good the alternative trading arrangements will be, if and when we are no longer member of the EU. Until we can have some real numbers on the table and see what the other trading nations ask in return, it's easy to treat these potential FTAs as flying pigs.

 

[oyster]

that (transition) lends a more accurate meaning to 'brexit in name only'.
We don't know how good the alternative trading arrangements will be, if and when we are no longer member of the EU. Until we can have some real numbers on the table and see what the other trading nations ask in return, it's easy to treat these potential FTAs as flying pigs.

Honestly, if you were the government of a significant country, and a just-into-brino UK offered to negotiate a trade deal, but might negotiate to go back into the EU (if accepted), just what confidence would YOU put into that deal?

If it were me, I'd be saying to myself, if they don't give me an absolutely unrefusable deal, generous to a fault and way beyond, with punitive terms on the UK upon termination, then not a hope of any deal.

In my view, there is not a hope in hell of getting good-for-the-UK trade deals until there is not a hope in hell of the UK going back into the EU. Even then, very hard to achieve.

 

[Woosh]

Honestly, if you were the government of a significant country, and a just-into-brino UK offered to negotiate a trade deal, but might negotiate to go back into the EU (if accepted), just what confidence would YOU put into that deal?

If it were me, I'd be saying to myself, if they don't give me an absolutely unrestorable deal, generous to a fault and way beyond, with punitive terms on the UK upon termination, then not a hope of any deal.

In my view, there is not a hope in hell of getting good-for-the-UK trade deals until there is not a hope in hell of the UK going back into the EU. Even then, very hard to achieve.

I think many countries will be realistic in wanting to do a deal with the UK after brexit day.
Would we want cheap imported food and kill our own food production?
Would we want cheap cars and kill our own car production?
Soon, people will find out that some of the people they know will have to pay the costs of cheap food and cheap cars.
You may turn out to be totally vindicated, I still believe that until the conservatives get to March 29 and thus 'own' brexit, debating alone won't change most voters' mind.

 

[anotherkiwi]

The EU would throw a lifeline because of self interest.

Not because of selfless pity for UK citizens?

 

[oldgroaner]

Let's look at what happens if there is "No Deal" with the EU.

Clearly the UK will eventually achieve some trade deals after the Brexit Day, but as we know unless they are offers the "other partner" in the deal simply cannot refuse, and wil yield us scant reward, this could take years to implement, and that includes WTO deals as well.
And that is after we have renegotiated our WTO membership and EU quotas therein. Lord knows how long that will take!
And the supreme irony is we will have "Taken back Control" from "unelected EU bureaucrats" to hand it to "Unelected WTO bureaucrats"

And who will handle the most important negotiating our trade deals? the professionals with experience in the EU

Er, no. it's Amateur crash course trainees as here
"The U.K.’s Department for International Trade is paying external consultants £14,000 a day for a crash course in handling trade disputes, to guarantee the country’s trade authority can function the day after Brexit.

We will, rather than have "taken control" be in the same situation a Country would be in after it had been invaded by a Foreign Power.
At the mercy of all comers, open to exploitation, sell off and asset stripping, for sale to the highest bidder
Exactly what the leave campaign wanted all along.

To make Brexit work would tax the most capable government in the world.
Is there anyone out there stupid enough to believe that any combination of the Politicians from all and any of the parties in Westminster is able to even begin to comprehend the scale of the problem let alone solve it?

The fact that they haven't packed in a "Run a mile" at the thought proves conlusively the old saying is true.

"If you can keep your head when all around are losing theirs.
Then you have no idea of the seriousness of the situation".

 

[oldgroaner]

The EU, unlike our Government is keeping the 27 member states informed
https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/communication-preparing-withdrawal-brexit-preparedness.pdf

This isn't good news
"
Financial services
–
Brexit preparedness
Over the years, the United Kingdom in general and the City of London in particular has
become an important financial services centre, also thanks to the Single Market. Many
operators, including from third countries, have established themselves in the Unite
d Kingdom
and operate in the rest of the Single Market based on the passporting rights enshrined in the
EU financial services legislation.
These passporting rights will cease to exist after withdrawal. This means that the provision of
financial services
from the United Kingdom to EU27 will be regulated by the third country
regimes in EU law and in the national legal frameworks of the respective Member State of the
EU customers. There will be no Single Market access."

 

[oldtom]

In my view, there is not a hope in hell of getting good-for-the-UK trade deals

We already have the best possible arrangement so any 'deal' negotiated cannot be as sweet as that otherwise some other states might seek to do the same.

It's amazing that the liars and cheats on the 'leave' side are still trotting out the same dialogue as two years ago - surely the general public can see through these vultures by now?

Tom

 

[oldtom]

These passporting rights will cease to exist after withdrawal. There will be no Single Market access."

It's not as if we haven't been warned!

Tom

 

[oyster]

I think many countries will be realistic in wanting to do a deal with the UK after brexit day.

Yes - very realistic. And if your suggestion of the UK running to rejoin is even suspected[1], that realism will make very sure that trade deals will not readily be concluded even if wanted.

[1] How could any country fail to ask whether this is possible or likely? They are not idiots.

 

[oldgroaner]

What does seem strange is the the leave campaign don't actually promise anything, do they?
New Jobs? silence
Lower cost of living ? silence again
Freedom from Foreign Laws? oh, so we won't be a member of the WTO then swopping 27 foreign laws for 126? Sorry I'm laughing at this point.
A reason for leaving the EU? nothing that actually improves the lot of the Voters, just vague dream of a long term improvement.

On the jobs front we have the huge irony of a loss of many professionals in the NHS that can't be replaced because we have no qualified candidates, or even those in training, and a system that penalises anyone financially if they seek the education they need to get the jobs, and at the lower end of the scale, nobody seems keen to do the low paid hard work jobs like fruit picking

Basically all leave promises is that things will get worse before (and this is a big question) and IF they ever get better.
More importantly they deliberately avoid commiting themselves to HOW and WHEN the DREAM will come true.

This is the equivalent of going to the Builders to buy a new house and being offered a patch of land with planning permission on an old bombing practice range randomly sown with unexploded cluster bombs , offered a plot and told your house will be built there, but not promised how and when it will be completed and you can move in , and by the way you must immediately pay an open ended monthly sum for the contract, effective immediately for an unspecified number of years.

How the heck did they ever manage to serve up so vague a dish and convince the voters to vote for Brexit?
Where is the Costed Business Plan to sell Brexit to me?

 

[oldtom]

I have just read through a lengthy piece by Norman Finkelstein in which he describes the problem faced by Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour movement. To keep things simple, this infographic encapsulates his position on the wider issues so you can choose whether or not to read the fuller version in this link: chimera-british-semitism

It isn't the easiest of reads, indeed I can't remember ever having to refer to my dictionary so frequently in such a brief article. I get the impression that Mr Finkelstein, while a very clever chap and superlative wordsmith, just can't help showing off his talent in that area which probably elevates his work to the status of highbrow, excluding lots of plebs, like me.

Tom

 

[oldtom]

This is how things work for me and I think it pretty well nails it in my opinion:

Tom

 

[oldtom]

The figures might be facts but whether they are or not, it's probably indicative of the diaspora of British people elsewhere in Europe:

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=305071763391422

Tom