Brexit, for once some facts.

[Danidl]

It seems to me that hard Brexit is going to happen. It will happen by default. Because there is no-one in control on the UK side. There is no-one capable of saying "stop this is madness".So I agree with you Zatlan, these are not negotiations
We are going to have a full EU border situated 10 miles from me, we are going to have miles and miles of lorries stuck on both sides , a situation replicated at Calais, etc.
The UK will lose a substantial part of its financial services industry. The automotive piece parts industry will be decimated. The British health services will further decline

 

[Danidl]

it costs nothing for the EU to have a position on trade after brexit.
You have to ask yourself why their politicians keep oh so quiet on the subject.
Not a hint. Don't tell me that the EU27 are not concerned about the prospect of trading under WTO rules.
Ask yourself who really provides the weight to the hard brexiters' argument.
Not the Express, but dear Mr Barnier, Mr Tusk and Mr Verhofstadt.

.. The novelty is that the EU negotiators are keeping to their brief. There are 27 countries with differing agendas, and very early on the UK intimated that they wanted a divide and conquer strategy. The EU aware of this made an agreement as to an agreed strategy which was the one they are following. Divorce first, divide up the assets and then visitation rights. These were the decisions of a functioning parliament in Brussels.
Remember the EU want none of this, we want a united EU with the UK being a full member, it is the UK which wants to leave. It is for the UK to propose what arrangements to make for a future and it is for the EU to agree whether these are acceptable.

 

[Woosh]

It seems to me that hard Brexit is going to happen. It will happen by default. Because there is no-one in control on the UK side.

brexit happens by default because the forces for either reversal or soft brexit cannot equate to the combined forces of EU politicians and kamikaze hard brexiters.
If the EU does not force the UK to choose between hard brexit and no brexit that everyone can come out of it with 'win some lose some'.

 

[Danidl]

brexit happens by default because the forces for either reversal or soft brexit cannot equate to the combined forces of EU politicians and kamikaze hard brexiters.
If the EU does not force the UK to choose between hard brexit and no brexit that everyone can come out of it with 'win some lose some'.

.. again the assumption that the EU negotiators are driving a hard Brexit. There are no forces visible on the UK side for any soft brexit. I do like the term kamikaze Brexiteers
All threats have been voiced by the UK side, none from the EU. Threats such as withdrawal from joint security, threats of creating even more of a tax haven etc. There was in fairness a bit of pettyness expressed by mainland european leaders in the immediate aftermath of the referendum, but they quickly controlled it. Perhaps it was more chagrin that they had not engaged in the UK referendum debate, and exposed the half-truths and lies at that time.

 

[Danidl]

it's clear that we want frictionless access to the EU27 market and they will have reciprocal access to ours.
The EU politicians know that proposition is the best arrangement for the EU27 exporters but they do not want to say it.

... That is the current arrangement, the one the UK has vowed to walk away from.

 

[oldgroaner]

Cheer up! things could be worse for instance Andrea Leadsom could be Prime Minister
http://www.thepoke.co.uk/2017/07/20/andrea-leadsom-celebrates-jane-austen-one-greatest-living-authors/

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

it's clear that we want frictionless access to the EU27 market and they will have reciprocal access to ours.
The EU politicians know that proposition is the best arrangement for the EU27 exporters but they do not want to say it.

You don't seem to want to acknowledge what I keep telling you. The EU exporters (I know I work with lots of them) don't need frictionless access to the UK. The border won't effect them, the UK customers have no choice, we'll still buy from the EU exporters because we have no choice.

The tariff / hassle will be paid for by UK importers / customers.. not the EU exporters, they have 0 negative impact really.

 

[oldgroaner]

Having just "had a go a right wingers abusing Dunkirk for Propaganda purposes I found this equally outrageous left wing offering from "ThePoke"

Things are going downhill faster than expected I fear.

 

[Woosh]

There was in fairness a bit of pettyness expressed by mainland european leaders in the immediate aftermath of the referendum, but they quickly controlled it. Perhaps it was more chagrin that they had not engaged in the UK referendum debate, and exposed the half-truths and lies at that time.

Nothing stops them saying they prefer soft brexit. Oh no, that would be 'having cake and eating it'.
They much prefer 'the alternative of brexit is no brexit'

 

[Danidl]

Nothing stops them saying they prefer soft brexit. Oh no, that would be 'having cake and eating it'.
They much prefer 'the alternative of brexit is no brexit'

.. which part of the EU parliament " agreeing to let the negotiators do the talking" did you not understand?

 

[Woosh]

You don't seem to want to acknowledge what I keep telling you. The EU exporters (I know I work with lots of them) don't need frictionless access to the UK. The border won't effect them, the UK customers have no choice, we'll still buy from the EU exporters because we have no choice.

The tariff / hassle will be paid for by UK importers / customers.. not the EU exporters, they have 0 negative impact really.

I posted about the likely impact of tariff a couple of weeks ago.
Inflation has already peaked. By March 2019, it would go back down to 1.7%-2%. WTO terms would add about 0.3% inflation for UK consumers. The losers are people whose jobs are tied to trade between the UK and the EU and investors who have supply chains in both sides.

 

[Woosh]

.. which part of the EU parliament " agreeing to let the negotiators do the talking" did you not understand?

that is precisely what I am complaining about. Mr Barnier and Mr Verhofstadt do not say a word about the preferred model of trade between the UK and EU.
Spin it any way you like, when hard brexit happens, both sides lose.
Why is it that the UK has to spell out how it intends to negotiate, what are its priorities and not vice versa? The answer is politicians from both sides like to play chicken with the livelihood of about 5 millions of their citizens.

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

I posted about the likely impact of tariff a couple of weeks ago.
Inflation has already peaked. By March 2019, it would go back down to 1.7%-2%. WTO terms would add about 0.3% inflation for UK consumers. The losers are people whose jobs are tied to trade between the UK and the EU and investors who have supply chains in both sides.

Yes, but we're not talking about the impact on the UK, are we. We're talking about the impact on EU exporters into the UK. Which is very different.

You said.

it's clear that we want frictionless access to the EU27 market and they will have reciprocal access to ours.
The EU politicians know that proposition is the best arrangement for the EU27 exporters but they do not want to say it.

and that's what I'm talking about. I"m saying as someone who works with a lot of EU exporters that they don't need it. It won't impact them, because their UK customers will still buy the products we'll just be paying more for them because of the tariff and admin charges. It won't impact massively on EU exporters sales. If anything the WTO barrier will increase their sales within their domestic EU markets because suddenly the UK won't be able to sell to them tariff free. The EU27 have a lot more choice within the 27, so they don't need the 1 really. I can't think of much we make that they can't make, where as there are lots of things from the EU that British customers love and would continue to buy, WTO or not.

 

[Woosh]

Yes, but we're not talking about the impact on the UK, are we. We're talking about the impact on EU exporters into the UK. Which is very different.

You said.



and that's what I'm talking about. I"m saying as someone who works with a lot of EU exporters that they don't need it. It won't impact them, because their UK customers will still buy the products we'll just be paying more for them because of the tariff and admin charges. It won't impact massively on EU exporters sales. If anything the WTO barrier will increase their sales within their domestic EU markets because suddenly the UK won't be able to sell to them tariff free. The EU27 have a lot more choice within the 27, so they don't need the 1 really. I can't think of much we make that they can't make, where as there are lots of things from the EU that British customers love and would continue to buy, WTO or not.

tariff is less important than non tariff barriers. Ultimately, people with businesses straddling both sides will come to divest, on both sides. There is nothing rosy about that. Who knows, we may buy more Japanese cars and the UK may resurrect its bike assembly business.

 

[Danidl]

that is precisely what I am complaining about. Mr Barnier and Mr Verhofstadt do not say a word about the preferred model of trade between the UK and EU.
Spin it any way you like, when hard brexit happens, both sides lose.
Why is it that the UK has to spell out how it intends to negotiate, what are its priorities and not vice versa? The answer is politicians from both sides like to play chicken with the livelihood of about 5 millions of their citizens.

.
Point 1. Because it was an agreed position by the EU27 to talk divorce first and visiting rights second.
Point 2 . I agree in hard Brexit everybody loses, in the order UK worst, Ireland a close second or maybe joint winners, the rest of the EU a distant third and geographically those states further away impacted less.
Point 3. Why not? It is the UK who want to change the rules, they must say what rules they want changing and what they are prepared to pay. Must I reiterate again , any and all delays have been from the UK side.
But the UK cannot negotiate, because it doesn't know what it wants!. There is effectively a coalition government in Westminster, who have not agreed on what they want, . It is a coalition in all but name, with Scottish and NI wings with different agendas, and the main English and Wales members almost equally divided on what they want

 

[Woosh]

But the UK cannot negotiate, because it doesn't know what it wants!

Going back as championed by the Greens and LibDems is not a serious option at the moment.
Only 1 out of 4 wants hard brexit.
The UK wants soft brexit by a noticeable margin.

TM and JC want having cake and eating it. Both should go asap.

 

[flecc]

Who knows, we may buy more Japanese cars

Expensive, at present many need to be built here to be competitive. (Link) Japanese makers often refuse to send models here due to the end price being too high. The result with tariffs will be us still buying German and paying a little more than at present.

the UK may resurrect its bike assembly business.

More expensively from experience, so we'll probably still buy what we do at present.
.

 

[Woosh]

More expensively from experience, so we'll probably still buy what we do at present.

I watched the rise and fall of Raleigh last night. We can't go back there but for small volume and a bit of tariff, there may be some scope.

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

I watched the rise and fall of Raleigh last night. We can't go back there but for small volume and a bit of tariff, there may be some scope.

So the plan now is that from scratch, we're going to start competing with the Far East... I think we might be 50 years too late for that, especially as the UK market isn't big enough to sustain that practice, you'd need to export to someone like the EU.... on no wait they can already buy bikes from within the EU that are tariff free so they won't need more expensive ones from the UK.

 

[oldtom]

You don't seem to want to acknowledge what I keep telling you. The EU exporters (I know I work with lots of them) don't need frictionless access to the UK. The border won't effect them, the UK customers have no choice, we'll still buy from the EU exporters because we have no choice.

The tariff / hassle will be paid for by UK importers / customers.. not the EU exporters, they have 0 negative impact really.

That doesn't seem too hard to understand. "It'll hurt them just as much as it hurts us!" I heard some say........erm, I think not. Prices in mainland Europe shops and showrooms will remain steady as they have this far, whereas in the UK, we will see a gradual but inexorable hike in the price of most of that which we need as well as most of the things we want.

Coupled with rising inflation, austerity, the further postponement of the minimum state pension age and increasing disenchantment with the whole spectrum of government policy, only a fundamental change in political direction will produce the hope of a better future for British people.

Tom