Brexit, for once some facts.

[Woosh]

If leaving the EU is such a glittering prize, why don't we simply pay what is after all no more than we would have had to pay we stayed in and actually easily affordable.

I don't think the issue is paying what is owed.
The issue is that politicians on both sides are equally deluded and it's not their livelihood that they are putting at risk.
the EU, for all its proffered friendship messages, does not explicitly want to disclose how it wants to see trade continuing after brexit.
They are in effect propping up the case for the hard brexiters

 

[oldgroaner]

the EU, for all its proffered friendship messages, does not explicitly want to disclose how it wants to see trade continuing after brexit.
They are in effect propping up the case for the hard brexiters

Hold on there, surely it was Mrs May who refuses to disclose her position on trade?
"We are not going to reveal our hand" and all that?
Under those circumstances why should the EU reveal theirs till the appropriate phase (already outlined ad nauseum)?

 

[Woosh]

it's clear that we want frictionless access to the EU27 market and they will have reciprocal access to ours.
The EU politicians know that proposition is the best arrangement for the EU27 exporters but they do not want to say it.

 

[oldgroaner]

it's clear that we want frictionless access to the EU27 market and they will have reciprocal access to ours.
The EU politicians know that proposition is the best arrangement for the EU27 exporters but they do not want to say it.

Because the set out position is pay the outstanding bill first, so where is there a problem?
All we have to do is negotiate the Bill first.

 

[Woosh]

All we have to do is negotiate the Bill first.

that sounds like a friend you don't want to see very often.

 

[flecc]

it's clear that we want frictionless access to the EU27 market and they will have reciprocal access to ours.
The EU politicians know that proposition is the best arrangement for the EU27 exporters but they do not want to say it.

And why should they say it, after all, we are the one's making the move to leave, so it's for us to say what we are wanting to do.

Once we've let the EU know that, they can comment on it's acceptability or otherwise and negotiate with us.
.

 

[oldgroaner]

that sounds like a friend you don't want to see very often.

Poor Bill!

 

[Woosh]

And why should they say it, after all, we are the one's making the move to leave, so it's for us to say what we are wanting to do.

Once we've let the EU know that, they can comment on it's acceptability or otherwise and negotiate with us.
.

it costs nothing for the EU to have a position on trade after brexit.
You have to ask yourself why their politicians keep oh so quiet on the subject.
Not a hint. Don't tell me that the EU27 are not concerned about the prospect of trading under WTO rules.
Ask yourself who really provides the weight to the hard brexiters' argument.
Not the Express, but dear Mr Barnier, Mr Tusk and Mr Verhofstadt.

 

[oldgroaner]

it costs nothing for the EU to have a position on trade after brexit.
You have to ask yourself why their politicians keep oh so quiet on the subject.
Not a hint. Don't tell me that the EU27 are not concerned about the prospect of trading under WTO rules.
Ask yourself who really provides the weight to the hard brexiters' argument.
Not the Express, but dear Mr Barnier and Mr Verhofstadt.

And just what is that to us? we have no influence on their attitude, we gave that up with Article 50.
We need to concentrate on getting our act in order, not being critical of the opposition's attitude.
They owe us nothing, do they?

 

[oldtom]

The issue is that politicians on both sides are equally deluded

You have persisted in attempting to place blame on the EU for the shortcomings and sheer idiocy of British politicians who have driven this ridiculous divorce suit from the start with no plan and without regard for the interests of the people they are supposed to represent.

It is simply unrealistic to attempt to apportion blame, entirely the fault of British politicians, among the EU states and their representatives. The UK 'Brexit' proponents and various high-ranking tories pontificated at some length about new markets being opened up to us, if you remember. You should remember because you repeatedly posted comments in these pages endorsing that view, agreeing with those who prophesied that great new market would open up for the UK and you foresaw long-term benefits for us.

In spite of everything that has happened and the reported shift in public opinion, you have continually discredited the EU, presumably because you are too conceited to accept that there is no better future at all outside the EU for businesses, workers, banks or indeed anyone in the UK, be they British nationals or foreigners resident here.

The British representatives in these now, seemingly pointless, 'negotiations' have made the UK the laughing stock of the international community - it is beyond embarrassing lately to read the reports, even from the tory press, as more and more, people come to realise that we are simply playing poker with the worst hand imaginable, trying to bluff the other side.

If you still believe all the nonsense you posted about the great deals we would discover outside the EU, perhaps you would care to elucidate and reveal exactly with whom and with what kind of commodities. I'm sure I'm not alone in wondering which countries are going to open up to the UK, selling us whatever we need at great prices while buying from us all the......I, really don't know - JCBs perhaps, that we have to barter with.

I'm further interested to know how far away these new, emerging partners are from our shores and how big an increase in the carbon footprint will be involved in mutual trade with these new partners......or perhaps that no longer matters as we enter this brave new world, post - 'Brexit'?

Tom

 

[flecc]

Ask yourself who really provides the weight to the hard brexiters' argument.
Not the Express, but dear Mr Barnier, Mr Tusk and Mr Verhofstadt.

That's because they are not worried about a hard Brexit happening. Germany would be the most affected, but it wouldn't be serious and the German government have already stated that they can easily cope with the loss. They easily coped with that much in the 2008 recession. We're back to what I've pointed out several times, the effects each way are roughly equal, but theirs is divided by 27 and well over 400 million people, ours is all on us and our sixty odd millions. Put another way, our average suffering would be seven times theirs.

And they are probably quietly confident that after suffering hard Brexit for a while, we'd probably apply to rejoin, but on their terms.
.

 

[oldgroaner]

it's clear that we want frictionless access to the EU27 market and they will have reciprocal access to ours.
The EU politicians know that proposition is the best arrangement for the EU27 exporters but they do not want to say it.

You do realise you have just described the rights of FULL MEMBERSHIP of the EU?
Sorry, we can't have that, as we won't be.
Is there anyone out there that believes otherwise? (apart from Boris and Gove)

 

[oldgroaner]

And they are probably quietly confident that after suffering hard Brexit for a while, we'd probably apply to rejoin, but on their terms.

You've been using the Force again flecc.
"I have forseen this"
And you are going to be proved right in the end.
Let us hope we are both still here to see that day.

 

[Woosh]

And just what is that to us? we have no influence on their attitude, we gave that up with Article 50.
We need to concentrate on getting our act in order, not being critical of the opposition's attitude.
They owe us nothing, do they?

They owe to the EU27 members to have a position on free trade, none of them has anything to gain by falling back to WTO rules.
If you call it negotiating tactics then it amounts to hitting the opposition where it hurts.

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

They owe to the EU27 members to have a position on free trade, none of them has anything to gain by falling back to WTO rules.
If you call it negotiating tactics then it amounts to hitting the opposition where it hurts.

This shows a fundamental lack of understanding of trade and its something I've seen consistently from "leave" voters over the past 2 years.

The EU27 will benefit if we fall back to WTO deals with them, for a number of reasons.

1) Business in the UK that do more than 50% of their trade to the EU will be better off moving to the EU and selling back into the UK. So they will gain businesses.

2) Business currently with their HQ in the UK, that sell to the whole of the EU will be better moving their HQ into the EU and selling back into the UK as an export market. So they gain businesses.

3) The logic the EU27 will loose out when we leave assumes we will be able to buy from someone else. We won't you just have to look at the car example. a 10% taiff isn't going to stop people getting their company lease Audi / BMW etc etc. They'll just pay 10% more, the EU won't loose out, we'll just be paying more for the same product.

4) The UK will suddenly not be part of the EU it'll be competing with it. The EU protects is market, so any companies in the EU will now no longer have to compete with the UK on a level playing field, so again they will benefit.

If you can give me one way us being forced to trade with the EU on WTO will have a net negative effect on the EU i'll be shocked.

 

[oldtom]

it's clear that we want frictionless access to the EU27 market and they will have reciprocal access to ours.
The EU politicians know that proposition is the best arrangement for the EU27 exporters but they do not want to say it.

Surely they have said pretty well exactly that....more than once? It is the UK side creating the problem with what boils down to, 'We want everything we consider a benefit for free instead of paying into the kitty. We also want the City of London casino bankers to continue to handle everybody's money and take our commissions as normal. We don't want your court or your H&S rules or single currency. We don't want any of your human rights or workers' rights nonsense. Moreover, we don't want your citizens coming to the UK unless we specifically ask for a handful now and then. Apart from that, we're prepared to negotiate on everything else!'

Do you perhaps imagine that after our departure from the EU, there will be a group of countries demanding that we be allowed back in on any terms? Or perhaps you think that some of the 27 will be following on our heels by invoking A50?

Even the architect of 'Brexit' now believes we should withdraw from the charade and cancel A50, resuming our full membership of the EU.

Tom

 

[Zlatan]

What has become apparent is that these are not negotiations.
The EU has structured leaving to benefit those staying. Our government should have had foresight to realise this. Its rather like playing poker against 4 ( actually 27)other players who have picked their own cards and know exactly the ones we are holding.
We have been stupid putting ourselves in this position but on the other hand it does indicate the way the EU works and their mentality. Much as I hate what the EU ate doing and treating us we only have ourselves to blame.
Seems both sides are willing to suffer damage rather than form a mutually beneficial solution, but given the fact EU does not want more countries leaving its understandable on their part. Its in the block's interest for us to leave weaker. The entire process is structured to ensure this. Farage, Cameron,Johnson, Gove etc etc are paid to know these things. They either didn't or don't care.

 

[oldtom]

That's because they are not worried about a hard Brexit happening. Germany would be the most affected, but it wouldn't be serious and the German government have already stated that they can easily cope with the loss. They easily coped with that much in the 2008 recession. We're back to what I've pointed out several times, the effects each way are roughly equal, but theirs is divided by 27 and well over 400 million people, ours is all on us and our sixty odd millions. Put another way, our average suffering would be seven times theirs.

And they are probably quietly confident that after suffering hard Brexit for a while, we'd probably apply to rejoin, but on their terms.
.

It seems to me that a great many people have forgotten that West Germany from 1989 onwards had to cope with an essentially bankrupt East Germany. They have managed that with consummate ease overall during their reunification process so for anyone to imagine that they will shed any tears over the British departure from the EU is simply ridiculous.

Tom

 

[Danidl]

What has become apparent is that these are not negotiations.
The EU has structured leaving to benefit those staying. Our government should have had foresight to realise this. Its rather like playing poker against 4 ( actually 27)other players who have picked their own cards and know exactly the ones we are holding.
We have been stupid putting ourselves in this position but on the other hand it does indicate the way the EU works and their mentality. Much as I hate what the EU ate doing and treating us we only have ourselves to blame.
Seems both sides are willing to suffer damage rather than form a mutually beneficial solution, but given the fact EU does not want more countries leaving its understandable on their part. Its in the block's interest for us to leave weaker. The entire process is structured to ensure this. Farage, Cameron,Johnson, Gove etc etc are paid to know these things. They either didn't or don't care.

.. what I learnt at school is that it's useful to do your homework, what I learnt as an academic and a manager is that it is useful to try and put yourself in the other persons shoes to see how it is for them, what problems they are having and what effects your words might have in them. These are two lessons the UK administration have not learnt.
The EU cannot give the UK what it wants, irrespective of cost because the UK doesn't know what it wants.
Incidentally it is not Germany which will be the most affected EU country, post Brexit, it is Ireland. .
The EU put out a long time ago it's few items for discussion, including how the transnational populations of EU citizens living in the UK and elsewhere would be treated, how the new border in Ireland would be treated as well as how the various committments, freely entered into by the UK under previous adminstrations, would be honoured.
We have had a mealy mouthed response to the first, no movement in the second, and gripping about the third.

 

[Danidl]

It seems to me that a great many people have forgotten that West Germany from 1989 onwards had to cope with an essentially bankrupt East Germany. They have managed that with consummate ease overall during their reunification process so for anyone to imagine that they will shed any tears over the British departure from the EU is simply ridiculous.

Tom

.. not quite consummate ease. There is was a lot of friction, a lot of angst, a lot of resentment even by the east Germans who had bought into the socialist ideal of working with their neighbours, and expected the state to care for them, but fair play to them they pulled it off . A lot cheaper than war.