Brexit, for once some facts.

Zlatan

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 26, 2016
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Two things happened on the political front yesterday:

The first notable point is that the electorate in Copeland voted in an understandably protectionist manner by rejecting the Labour Party candidate on account of Labour's lack of support for the nuclear industry.

The second significant event occurred when voters in Stoke on Trent thoroughly rejected the opportunity to elect the leader of UKIP, choosing a Labour candidate instead.

While neither of these events has much bearing on the current political make-up of the UK, the Stoke result is interesting in as much as this was a very carefully selected constituency by UKIP's research people and was seen as a great opportunity to boost the party's flagging fortunes while putting their lying leader into the HofC.

That went badly wrong and it probably marks the beginning of the end for this now redundant group of right-wing extremists.

In summary, the tories must be delighted while Labour need to find a left-of-centre candidate to replace JC as party leader. Lovely chap though he is, another leader with a more definitive position on the importance of the nuclear industry, would see Labour regain the Copeland seat at the next election. By that, I mean that there needs to be a clear distinction between our ongoing need to rely on nuclear power production but we most certainly do not require nuclear weapons.

Tom
So country might not be taken over by fascists then Tom? Well I never. Can you believe that..
Fair point re nuclear...said it all along about Corbyn and his stance on it. Crazy.
But, its still an endorsement for May.
 
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A fine endorsement of BREXIT in the two elections last night.
Hate to break it to you, but it might be seen another way.

Copeland, was all about Nuclear Power... nothing to do with Brexit, or Europe.

Stoke... Labour put up a pro-remain candidate (all be it one who is now currently saying he respects the will of the people) against UKIP who threw everything at it. All the tactical voting sites and local campains were about keeping UKIP out.

Even UKIP played on this... so if they played the Brexit card and lost, what does that say?



See here as an example.

http://www.moreunited.uk/stoke-vote-gareth-snell?_ga=1.12793079.1995937703.1487927411

In other news last night, Conservatives lost 2 more councils to LibDems.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834909971213127682
 
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tillson

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Hate to break it to you, but it might be seen another way.

Copeland, was all about Nuclear Power... nothing to do with Brexit, or Europe.

Stoke... Labour put up a pro-remain candidate (all be it one who is now currently saying he respects the will of the people) against UKIP who threw everything at it. All the tactical voting sites and local campains were about keeping UKIP out.

Even UKIP played on this... so if they played the Brexit card and lost, what does that say?



See here as an example.

http://www.moreunited.uk/stoke-vote-gareth-snell?_ga=1.12793079.1995937703.1487927411

In other news last night, Conservatives lost 2 more councils to LibDems.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834909971213127682

Yes of course it is.
 

Kudoscycles

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Apr 15, 2011
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A fine endorsement of BREXIT in the two elections last night.
You know that Copeland was about the nuclear industry and Corbyns attitude to it. I expect May will take it as an endorsement of her form of Brexit,she is a powerful person with weak opposition against her,not that her policy is the right one,just nobody is presenting any alternative....frightening situation we are in.
Stoke should have been UKIP,s utopia,they are presenting themselves as a party of liars and thugs,after Nuttal's lies on his website and the MEPs having a punch up,aren't they composed of National Front and English League? They really don't have a purpose now that the Tories have moved so far to the right.
I am of the opinion that hard Brexit is now a done deal,there is really not much to stop it. It will be interesting how May comes out of her Brexit negotiations,a bad Brexit will be the end of May,I cannot see how the EU will let her have a good Brexit but time will tell.
KudosDave
 
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Kudoscycles

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Apr 15, 2011
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Great Britain could become a little smaller post Brexit.
It is looking like the solution to the Irish border problem is giving Northern Ireland to Ireland,the north adopting the Euro and staying in the EU,the north voted against that in the referendum.
I don't suppose Cameron had any idea of the extent of this Brexit vote,after all he never thought he would lose it.
I just don't see Brexit being sorted out in the 18 months timescale,it will end up a panic Brexit.
KudosDave
 

Zlatan

Esteemed Pedelecer
Nov 26, 2016
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Hate to break it to you, but it might be seen another way.

Copeland, was all about Nuclear Power... nothing to do with Brexit, or Europe.

Stoke... Labour put up a pro-remain candidate (all be it one who is now currently saying he respects the will of the people) against UKIP who threw everything at it. All the tactical voting sites and local campains were about keeping UKIP out.

Even UKIP played on this... so if they played the Brexit card and lost, what does that say?



See here as an example.

http://www.moreunited.uk/stoke-vote-gareth-snell?_ga=1.12793079.1995937703.1487927411

In other news last night, Conservatives lost 2 more councils to LibDems.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/834909971213127682
Yes ,I knew all that KTM. Fairly obvious, but folk voting for tories would not have done so if Brexit held such fears.
 
You are very welcome and I hope that your delight extends into the weekend.
Its all going very well thanks :)

results like this from last night make me smile.

Liberal Democrat GAIN Barton (Kettering) from Conservative.

LDEM: 57.0% (+57.0)
CON: 29.8% (-19.3)
UKIP: 9.4% (-14.1)
GRN: 3.7% (-3.5)


UKIP not faring so well is nice to see :)
 
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Zlatan

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Nov 26, 2016
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the fear of Labour closing Sellafield, or UKIP in Stoke was clearly more than the potential of Brexit, which lets be honest many still think won't happen.
Yes after all it was only advisory..but whatever you think about it happening or not the simple fact is it is an endorsement for May..she offered a viable alternative which voters were happy to support.
Yes they didn't vote labour because of Corbyn's insane attitude to nuclear deterrent/ etc etc but they happily voted Tory. If Tory policies were so frightening they would not have...
It sends a message to both Corbyn and Blair.
Like I said in my first post, yes it tells Corbyn his nuclear policy is flawed ( for our current electorate) but its still an endorsement forTories.
 
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tillson

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Its all going very well thanks :)

results like this from last night make me smile.

Liberal Democrat GAIN Barton (Kettering) from Conservative.

LDEM: 57.0% (+57.0)
CON: 29.8% (-19.3)
UKIP: 9.4% (-14.1)
GRN: 3.7% (-3.5)


UKIP not faring so well is nice to see :)
The above is misleading, but I hope it doesn't spoil your weekend.

The reality is that in Copeland, the Lib Dems received 227 more votes than UKIP to finish third. Wow!

In Stoke, UKIP received 3150 more votes than Lib Dems to finish second.

This just shows that the figures can be made to tell any story you choose, so nice try but..........

The reality that can be taken from this is that UKIP's momentum is waning, which given the huge breakthrough with BREXIT, is unsurprising. I imagine that people are thinking, job done.

However, UKIP have an important role to play in ensuring that BREXIT continues to progress and will always be there holding the Conservative's and to a large extent, Labour's feet to the fire. UKIP's support is always going to be dictated by the progress of BREXIT.

BREXIT is happening, A50 will be triggered soon and we will be on our way with the Lib Dems washed away in the wake, which is nice to see :)
 

Danidl

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The above is misleading, but I hope it doesn't spoil your weekend.

The reality is that in Copeland, the Lib Dems received 227 more votes than UKIP to finish third. Wow!

In Stoke, UKIP received 3150 more votes than Lib Dems to finish second.

This just shows that the figures can be made to tell any story you choose, so nice try but..........

The reality that can be taken from this is that UKIP's momentum is waning, which given the huge breakthrough with BREXIT, is unsurprising. I imagine that people are thinking, job done.

However, UKIP have an important role to play in ensuring that BREXIT continues to progress and will always be there holding the Conservative's and to a large extent, Labour's feet to the fire. UKIP's support is always going to be dictated by the progress of BREXIT.

BREXIT is happening, A50 will be triggered soon and we will be on our way with the Lib Dems washed away in the wake, which is nice to see :)
...... I am becoming resigned to the fact that A50 will happen, that the very hard to hard brexit will occur, the only possibility for sanity to remerge would be for Labour to realise that appeasement was futile and as we might say grow a pair. Perhaps your by election result could be that catalyst.
 

Woosh

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May 19, 2012
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I think brexit will start as hard, there is bound to be rancour and mistrust, and will get softer as time goes by.
5 years from now, people will look back and wonder what the fuss is all about.
 

Danidl

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Sep 29, 2016
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Yes after all it was only advisory..but whatever you think about it happening or not the simple fact is it is an endorsement for May..she offered a viable alternative which voters were happy to support.
Yes they didn't vote labour because of Corbyn's insane attitude to nuclear deterrent/ etc etc but they happily voted Tory. If Tory policies were so frightening they would not have...
It sends a message to both Corbyn and Blair.
Like I said in my first post, yes it tells Corbyn his nuclear policy is flawed ( for our current electorate) but its still an endorsement forTories.
... Insanity ... ??? Windscale is just a severe accident or otherwise away from making a significant fraction of Wales and Ireland uninhabitable.
Spending billions on a product you cannot use , because if you do you will doom yourself
Politically unwise , to have stated it in those terms perhaps, but insane.

Just for the record, I think that the UK has no option, due to its population density but to retain nuclear electric power generation for the next generation. It could have made alternatives, but they are now to late.
 
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The above is misleading, but I hope it doesn't spoil your weekend.

The reality is that in Copeland, the Lib Dems received 227 more votes than UKIP to finish third. Wow!

In Stoke, UKIP received 3150 more votes than Lib Dems to finish second.

This just shows that the figures can be made to tell any story you choose, so nice try but..........

The reality that can be taken from this is that UKIP's momentum is waning, which given the huge breakthrough with BREXIT, is unsurprising. I imagine that people are thinking, job done.

However, UKIP have an important role to play in ensuring that BREXIT continues to progress and will always be there holding the Conservative's and to a large extent, Labour's feet to the fire. UKIP's support is always going to be dictated by the progress of BREXIT.

BREXIT is happening, A50 will be triggered soon and we will be on our way with the Lib Dems washed away in the wake, which is nice to see :)
ah... I do love numbers :)

in Copeland

UKIP... dropped 9%
Lib Dem... increased by 3%

in Stoke

UKIP increased by 2.1% - with all that investment for their party leader
Lib Dem... increased by 5.7%

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/835098714360463360
 
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tillson

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ah... I do love numbers :)

in Copeland

UKIP... dropped 9%
Lib Dem... increased by 3%

in Stoke

UKIP increased by 2.1% - with all that investment for their party leader
Lib Dem... increased by 5.7%

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/835098714360463360

.......... and BREXIT is happening with article 50 being triggered soon. That is the hard fact.

The shifts in percentage share of the vote occurs for a multitude of reasons, nuclear, support for BREXIT, campaign strategy, Corbyn, Torys now a BREXIT party taking votes back off UKIP. You or I don't know how much of an influencing factor these or other aspects were in the election results. You may think you know, but you don't.

What we both do know is that the democratic decision to go ahead with BREXIT is going to happen. Let's leave this discussion on that note of fact and try not to let it take the edge of your weekend.
 
.......... and BREXIT is happening with article 50 being triggered soon. That is the hard fact.

The shifts in percentage share of the vote occurs for a multitude of reasons, nuclear, support for BREXIT, campaign strategy, Corbyn, Torys now a BREXIT party taking votes back off UKIP. You or I don't know how much of an influencing factor these or other aspects were in the election results. You may think you know, but you don't.

What we both do know is that the democratic decision to go ahead with BREXIT is going to happen. Let's leave this discussion on that note of fact and try not to let it take the edge of your weekend.
you're suggesting something happening in the future is a HARD FACT.

Really, that's naive in the very least.

A50 will be triggered, I'm pretty sure that's likely. Currently Brexit isn't happening, its planned, but its not happening. It happening isn't a fact.

Sorry to burst your bubble.
 
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tillson

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you're suggesting something happening in the future is a HARD FACT.

Really, that's naive in the very least.

A50 will be triggered, I'm pretty sure that's likely. Currently Brexit isn't happening, its planned, but its not happening. It happening isn't a fact.

Sorry to burst your bubble.
If that is what you would like to believe, please continue.

ps I forgot to mention Storm Dorris in my list of possible factors. Gizapeerage Chakrabarti has just been on the news blaming the storm. Today just gets funnier and funnier.
 
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