Brexit, for once some facts.

[tillson]

You are completely missing the point I made that it's the long term future I'm looking at. Of course those countries will follow us in adopting cars. But they also eventually follow us all the way into the London style car ownership disadvantages and increasingly give them up in the same way and for the same reasons.

It's the inevitable consequence of ever increasing population and ever growing travel needs on a planet that isn't growing.
.

I think "Car ownership" will be an obsolete term in years to come when driverless cars become popular. Why would you need to own a driverless car? I can see a time when you book a pickup and drop off point, much like a taxi, and pay per journey.

Much of the present taxi fare is a labour charge for the driver. Take labour out of the journey cost and a kind of short term rental per trip becomes viable.

 

[flecc]

I think that cars might become smaller, but it's wrong to use London as an example.
London created its own problems by wanting to be a world class city.
Most British people live away from bus routes, many do not have more than two or three a day, some do not have any at all.
I do not like London at all and certainly would not like to live in the peculiar conditions that Londoners seem to love.
By Londoners, I include people who have moved there such as my cousin and who absolutely love the place.

Once again like Zlatan you're looking at the present. If there is one thing we do know, it's that there's always change and nothing ever stays the same.

The private car is just a blip in history of little over a hundred years duration and very much less than that in widespread usage.

Its time will pass.
.

 

[oldtom]

Sort of: "Listen, we are leaving and you had better give us the best possible deal! Or else!" Or else what? you'll leave? LMFAO

Succinctly put but that appears to be exactly the position.

Negotiations require that two sides each have something the other would like to have and when an agreeable quantification has been achieved, a deal can be done.

We did it as kids in the school playground with artefacts such as peashooters, catapults, comics, marbles, gobstoppers and various other sweets, cigarette cards and so on - three of them for one of those or whatever. Flexibility and patience were required to secure a good deal sometimes. Everybody else in the class knew about the deal though and most had a good idea of the 'going rate' for most items.

Now, let me think........what do we have in the UK that the EU desperately wants? Mmm, let's see; we want everything from them that we already enjoy from membership so we want that to continue......we just want it for free, right! Now I'm actually stuck as to what we have that might induce the other side into any kind of negotiating posture. It strikes me that most of the things foreign entrepreneurs, venture capitalists and indeed, governments, would like from the UK are already in their hands so I seem to have come back to your point, 'anotherkiwi'.

Perhaps I'm missing something?

Tom

 

[Danidl]

And even changing the mode of transport opens another can of worms!
Chinese cities crack down on electric bikes
Users of electric bikes are the latest target of Beijing’s ongoing campaign to bring order to its chaotic, traffic-clogged streets.
Beijing currently has four million e-bikes, according to media reports.
Transportation authority statistics show 31,404 accidents last year involved e-bikes, with 113 people killed and 21,423 injured, accounting for 37% of all traffic accident injuries.
More crucially, experts say a ban on e-bikes would likely boost the sales of cars, which contribute to dangerously high levels of particulate pollution in the capital.
“If we do away with them (e-bikes) people will have no option but to buy cars, which are larger and polluting, Chou Baoxing, a State Council advisor and former minister for housing and urban-rural development, said in an interview with Caijing magazine.
The car manufacturers would likely benefit, and traffic police will deal with fewer offences, but the city’s environment will suffer, with poorer air quality and increased congestion, Chou added.

Ah well you an win 'em all!

That death rate statistic for Beijing is interesting... That city has a population equivalent to the population of Ireland give or take and has an equivalent death rate but we do our killing in cars.

 

[tillson]

Succinctly put but that appears to be exactly the position.

Negotiations require that two sides each have something the other would like to have and when an agreeable quantification has been achieved, a deal can be done.

We did it as kids in the school playground with artefacts such as peashooters, catapults, comics, marbles, gobstoppers and various other sweets, cigarette cards and so on - three of them for one of those or whatever. Flexibility and patience were required to secure a good deal sometimes. Everybody else in the class knew about the deal though and most had a good idea of the 'going rate' for most items.

Now, let me think........what do we have in the UK that the EU desperately wants? Mmm, let's see; we want everything from them that we already enjoy from membership so we want that to continue......we just want it for free, right! Now I'm actually stuck as to what we have that might induce the other side into any kind of negotiating posture. It strikes me that most of the things foreign entrepreneurs, venture capitalists and indeed, governments, would like from the UK are already in their hands so I seem to have come back to your point, 'anotherkiwi'.

Perhaps I'm missing something?

Tom

Again I agree with your assessment of a deal.

Seriously, is the UK not a large net contributor to the EU? Don't we buy a lot,and I mean one of the biggest customers, of products from EU companies? These are just a couple of points, but they must be worth something during negotiations?

 

[Woosh]

Now, let me think........what do we have in the UK that the EU desperately wants?

our money, that's what.
They want to sell to us x amount, we want to sell to them y amount.

The agreement will be a quota that is duty free, like NZ has lamb to sell, EU has cars to sell. To sell their cars duty free, the EU gives to NZ a quota of 280,000 tonnes of NZ lamb that can be imported into the EU duty free.

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

our money, that's what.
They want to sell to us x amount, we want to sell to them y amount.

The agreement will be a quota that is duty free, like NZ has lamb to sell, EU has cars to sell. To sell their cars duty free, the EU gives to NZ a quota of 280,000 tonnes of NZ lamb that can be imported into the EU duty free.

I don't understand this logic.

We will clearly still by x from them.... where else are we going to get it. The UK still wants many many of the brands that come from the EU. Even if they loose a small % of their sales, the EU companies will benefit because their competition currently coming from the UK will suddenly be more expensive.

We will also have to start from a worse trading relationship with all the other countries the EU sells to.

So that rules out them needing us.

We want to sell to them, yes... but they can buy from anyone, what do we have they want to buy that they can't get from within the EU or one of the countries it has a trade agreement with?

The "they need us more than we need them" arguement is nothing other than arrogance on our behalf.

 

[gray198]

I think "Car ownership" will be an obsolete term in years to come when driverless cars become popular. Why would you need to own a driverless car? I can see a time when you book a pickup and drop off point, much like a taxi, and pay per journey.

Much of the present taxi fare is a labour charge for the driver. Take labour out of the journey cost and a kind of short term rental per trip becomes viable.

You mean like a Johnny cab in Total Recall??

 

[Woosh]

I don't understand this logic.

the logic is if we don't have a deal, we still trade but more expensively.
The question is, expensive for whom?
I'd say for the EU.
If there is no deal, we will collect more in duty than the EU does on WTO terms.
The problem for us isn't in the trade, it is the non tariff barriers that the EU will impose on our trades.
We'll lose good jobs big time because of less direct inward investments, our tax take will suffer from loss of good jobs.

 

[tillson]

You mean like a Johnny cab in Total Recall??

I've not seen the film, but if it's what I'm describing, then yes

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

the logic is if we don't have a deal, we still trade but more expensively.
The question is, expensive for whom?
I'd say for the EU.
If there is no deal, we will collect more in duty than the EU does.

Why do you think it'll be more expensive for the EU? The only person who will be effected by a price rise is the UK consumer.

We are a net importer... yes.

So the duty is paid by the importer, not the exporter ... not that it really matters because the cost price is just passed onto the consumer anyway.

So yes the UK government will collect a load of cash from the duty they charge UK public from buying imported goods.

Do you think that will make up the reduction in takings from the incomes from tax reciepts from the export business that won't be exporting to the EU any more, or the banking sector that will have to move??

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

I've not seen the film, but if it's what I'm describing, then yes

You've disagreed with my post... so explain to me. How does the EU need the UK??? We're one of 27 members and it has trading agreements with most of the rest of the world. We'll be out on our own, competing with the EU.

 

[Kudoscycles]

I wouldn't. It would be Indian cars for me, Jaguar or Land Rover.

Audi make good cars, but unfortunately they have a reputation of being purchased by knob heads and driven by complete tools. They seem to have taken over the mantle from angry faced Beamer drivers on motorways.

Both my other cars are BMW ,so it looks like I have the complete set....one of my directors had a Jag for a while,it spent more time in the garage than on the road because of diff problems,it was never really sorted.
KudosDave

 

[Kudoscycles]

I wouldn't dream of dragging you out of your Audi, or wish to deny you the best product for the job. It was treating cars as posing pouches rather than just the transport that they are that I object to.
.

The A4 All Road just sits well for my work usage,I am hating low profile tyres these days. Any ice and my BMW is hopeless,the Audi Quattro system is so good. The car size is big enough for 5 adults but small enough to find a park space. IMHO
KudosDave

 

[Kudoscycles]

And even changing the mode of transport opens another can of worms!
Chinese cities crack down on electric bikes
Users of electric bikes are the latest target of Beijing’s ongoing campaign to bring order to its chaotic, traffic-clogged streets.
Beijing currently has four million e-bikes, according to media reports.
Transportation authority statistics show 31,404 accidents last year involved e-bikes, with 113 people killed and 21,423 injured, accounting for 37% of all traffic accident injuries.
More crucially, experts say a ban on e-bikes would likely boost the sales of cars, which contribute to dangerously high levels of particulate pollution in the capital.
“If we do away with them (e-bikes) people will have no option but to buy cars, which are larger and polluting, Chou Baoxing, a State Council advisor and former minister for housing and urban-rural development, said in an interview with Caijing magazine.
The car manufacturers would likely benefit, and traffic police will deal with fewer offences, but the city’s environment will suffer, with poorer air quality and increased congestion, Chou added.

Ah well you an win 'em all!

The chinese have spent a fortune on new metro systems but the chinese are not making enough use of them,they have to force the people off their e-bikes.
KudosDave

 

[Kudoscycles]

our money, that's what.
They want to sell to us x amount, we want to sell to them y amount.

The agreement will be a quota that is duty free, like NZ has lamb to sell, EU has cars to sell. To sell their cars duty free, the EU gives to NZ a quota of 280,000 tonnes of NZ lamb that can be imported into the EU duty free.

As we have said before Theresa May might be quite happy to fall back on WTO tariffs,think of all the duty she will collect on all the German cars we buy,a nice revenue earner and poor people wont mind,better than raising income tax to fund the NHS.
KudosDave

 

[Woosh]

Do you think that will make up the reduction in takings from the incomes from tax reciepts from the export business that won't be exporting to the EU any more, or the banking sector that will have to move??

probably not.
The taxman takes 36% on average in national insurance and income tax.
Most of our trade with the EU must fall under WTO MFN tariff, 2.3% weighted average. For each person whose job is lost through EU dastardliness, the Treasury would lose 36% of his wages, about £10k per job. His job would have to import or export £480k of goods previously for the Treasury to recoup the money.

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

probably not.
The taxman takes 36% on average in national insurance and income tax.
Most of our trade with the EU must fall under WTO MFN tariff, 2.3% weighted average. For each person whose job is lost through EU dastardliness, the Treasury would lose 36% of his wages, about £10k per job. His job would have to import or export £480k of goods previously for the Treasury to recoup the money.

so, how do you anticipate ....

The question is, expensive for whom?
I'd say for the EU.

us leaving is going to punish the EU more than it inflicts damage to our own economy? Or do you hope it damages both equally?

Because you do realise you're talking about damage... not benefiting anyone??

 

[Woosh]

Or do you hope it damages both equally?

I expect their tax take is on average a bit higher than our 36% (France 46%, Germany 34%) so they lose out more, or at least the French will.

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

I expect their tax take is on average a bit higher than our 36% (France 46%, Germany 34%) so they lose out more, or at least the French will.

but if they gain a number of jobs from the UK, and their companies benefit from not having to compete on a level playing field with UK companies in their internal EU markets and even in most export ones, they'll make a load more money.

So individually and as nations pretty much all the EU will benefit, the only loss will be to the EU as a whole from our membership fee and contribution to joint projects, but they're loosing a bit and gaining a lot, we're loosing a lot to gain a bit.