Yes but what happens if we leave without a deal? What effect would that have on our country?
KudosDave
Brexit, for once some facts.
- Thread starter flecc
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KudosDave
No you weren't talking about a specific car brand, and neither was I.
We're talking about our future relationship with the EU single market (to sell to it, and to buy from it) and you're saying we hold cards... like if we were buying a car from a dealership. So the EU has to listen to us.
This is false logic, and if you think we hold the cards, you're wrong I'm afraid.
Just imagine the EU say's no, so we default to a WTO deal with the EU and everyone else (because we'll loose the deals that are in place via the EU we have with everyone else).
The EU will loose one country from the list it trades with, that's it. Just one. We'll loose our relationship with the rest of the planet, meaning our exports aren't competitive anymore, because they'll be subject to WTO rules until new deals can be negotiated (10 years at experts guesses) and imports will be super expensive because of logistics, falling currency etc etc.
Basically we have no cards on trade. We're a small market compared to the rest of EU as a whole, which we'll suddenly be competing with, not part of.
Well that's a personal choice which we will all be required to make, IF that is the route negotiations take. My personal choice will be to buy products free from import duty.
How are you going to buy product free from import duty?
KudosDave
That is impossible to predict with any degree of accuracy. We can guess, but expert guessing has so far proved hopelessly inaccurate.
The UK will be free to trade with other countries on terms yet to be negotiated. Those terms may well include free trade.
Tillson....you sound like you have swallowed a Theresa May pill and cant give a straight answer....assuming we break from the EU next week and do what the Brexiters want a hard break, how are you going to buy a product that is remote from import duty....not 2 years time,situation as now ????
KudosDave
The UK is a significant customer of and contributor to the EU. I think that provides us with a negotiating position.
If you are talking about predictions by economists, most of them have not changed their opinion.
So you think,
a) that we don't already trade with other countries?
b) that we'll be able to get a better deal?
bearing in mind the EU is a much bigger more attractive market (even without the UK) than the UK is, and also that we don't have anyone to negotiate deals with the rest of the planet let alone the deal we're about to have to do with the EU.
and
c) you think a free trade deal with someone like China, India etc etc is going to come without strings attached, even bigger strings than the ones we have with the EU.
Plus if we do a free trade deal with someone the EU doesn't already have a similar deal with, it'll kill chances of a deal with the EU, because we'll just be a gateway otherwise.
Also the EU has to give us a bad deal, so others don't want to follow us.
We'll be made an example of.
Free trade deals take forever to negotiate....sorry to press you on this but where are you going to buy product that is import duty free today???
KudosDave
...Of course the UK government wouldn't be risking the economic future of the nation without solid numbers which have convinced them of the better future leaving will bring. No estimates or guesses, they know that this is the right thing to do and Britain's businesses will be stronger and richer as a result!
I can't disagree with you because I am not in possession of sufficient information to construct a counter argument. I would simply be speculating, in much the same way that you have speculated in the above post.
I'm not speculating Tilson! It just appears you're debating something you now even admit you don't know about.
Direct message me your address. I'll send you this book.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Brexit-Happens-Everything-Britains-Divorce/dp/0995497826
There is a good review here:
That I completely disagree with....I honestly think that this government dont care a damn or have a clue what economic state Brexit brings to our country,Theresa May and Co are only interested in staying in power as the most right wing government,control of our laws and most important control of immigration...Rees-Mogg,Bone,Redwood are about as racist as its possible to be,throw backs to the days of the empire and the Raj.
Of course the UK government wouldn't be risking the economic future of the nation without solid numbers which have convinced them of the better future leaving will bring. No estimates or guesses, they know that this is the right thing to do and Britain's businesses will be stronger and richer as a result!
I dont think May has a clue what will evolve out of Brexit,she just hopes that it will turn out ok...if it doesn't work out that will become someone else's problem.
Where do you think these wonderful trading opportunities will come from??
KudosDave
Actually No.....because the EU is subject to import duties on everything that it brings in from countries that it doesn't have free trade agreements with,which are very few.
There is a real practical problem that nobody has mentioned. I ship goods to every EU country,if it is to a private customer I charge the vat.
But if it is to a fellow trader,I dont charge vat,as long as the trader has a valid vat number,it is as easy as sending a package in the UK.
But if we break from the EU,I will have to produce invoice documents to be held by the courier,the goods will not be released to the trader until customs have ensured that any vat or duty has been satisfied....this is the same as we ship to say USA or Australia. The extra workload for customs staff both in the UK and EU will be enormous,the disruption considerable.....will the EU and UK be ready for all this work.
KudosDave
I'm afraid that you are speculating as to what will happen during and a result of the BREXIT negotiations. To speculate, to form a theory or conjecture about a subject without firm evidence.
My original point was that none of us are privy to the Government's negotiating position and that it is a correct stance by government not to disclose it. So like you, I don't know anything about how the negotiations will unfold.
Thank you for the kind offer of your book. I will decline on this occaision.
I have thought about this this point a lot, because currently all our KTM dealers essentially import from the EU direct to their stores.
So currently if they are VAT registered they hold that stock at 20% less cost because they don't have to pay the VAT to then claim it back again.
If / when we leave, all the imports will be subject to VAT, and handling fees and any tariff - just as they would be from outside the EU currently.
My thinking is the EU won't be as effected as we would be. They currently import from all over the world, so are set up for it. it would just add one more market that they have to deal with.
For the UK however we'd suddenly be in the situation where ALL imports have to clear customs, where currently only 47% of our imports are subject to this delay / cost / hassle.
So this will have the same effect as doubling the work load of customs over night.
You missed the point again!! I wasn't speculating... I asked you questions.
I've not proposed my thoughts have I.