Brexit, for once some facts.

The UK is a significant customer of and contributor to the EU. I think that provides us with a negotiating position.
Some more trade facts for you Tillson.

Useful briefing from the House of Commons Library, showing:
- the UK exported £230 billion worth of goods & services to the rest of the EU in 2015, up £97.3bn since 1999
- 58% of the goods we export go to other EU Member States
- if we leave and fall back on WTO rules, our exports to the EU of dairy products would face 33.5% tariffs, sugar and confectionary would face 20.2% tariffs, beverages 19.4% tariffs, animal products 15% tariffs, cereals 12.4% tariffs, fish & fish products 12% tariffs, clothing 11.4% tariffs, fruit, veg & plants 10.3% tariffs... and on and on and on.
We make no apologies for sharing #facts.
#Brexit #EUref #Remain

http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7851

So... he's my pondering.

The EU is essentially a club, really designed to promote and protect trade within the club. So when we leave, the €230 billion we currently sell to that club will be hit with tariffs... because the EU will want those €230billion worth of sales for business within the EU. They have a big market, and a huge population so they can probably achieve this. We'll suddenly loose a big chunk of our exports.

The 42% of goods we export to counties outside the EU, we do do so though our EU trade agreements with those other countries. 63 of them to be precise.

So if / when we leave the EU, we won't just be loosing our deal with the EU, we'll be loosing our deal with the other 63 countries we currently benefit from trade deals with. We'll default to WTO rules until we can negotiate all 64 agreements. So once we have 64 agreements, remember again that we'll be competing with the EU now, no longer part of it. We have to try as a small nation to get a deal thats as good as the whole EU currently has, and that will just be to get back to a deal as good we we've got now.

How long will that take, and how much hope is there that we'll even get a deal as good as we've got now?? They are questions I can't answer.
 

oldgroaner

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When we trigger article 50, unless we remain in the Common Market and Customs union, the best possible business opportunity will quite simply exist for companies already inside the EU or ones that move there.
Prices of our goods will be to them uncompetitive.

Our loss with be an opportunity for them to expand and eat up the trade, and that will apply to to trade with WTO countries where we still have to negotiate trade deals.
In the interim period we are as vulnerable as a Crab when it has shed it's shell and the new one hasn't hardened.

Is anyone who voted for Brexit able to assemble a rational argument to destroy that assertion? and perhaps offer a valid reason that this is a reasonable risk to take with some concrete reward at the end?
Other than a pious hope that all will turn out OK?
This is madness on an epic scale
 
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oldtom

Esteemed Pedelecer
So if / when we leave the EU, we won't just be loosing our deal with the EU, we'll be loosing our deal with the other 63 countries we currently benefit from trade deals with. We'll default to WTO rules until we can negotiate all 64 agreements.
Well, according to today's news, we have nothing to worry about as the good ol' USA seems prepared to come to our rescue again as they did in WW2:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38565192

In a dramatic U-turn, President Obama's stated position in regard to 'Brexit' has been reversed by Trump's people, undoubtedly because of Johnson's sharp negotiating skills and masterful diplomacy.o_O The last financial business the UK had with the USA was the post-war loan which replaced the lend-lease deal whereby we paid back the Americans for all the hardware, goods and other essential support they provided to us during WW2 - that loan took 60 years to repay!

This time round, we have a Republican President-elect representing the rich business community of America so the mentality that dictates 'if there's a buck to be made, make it!' (primary target - the NHS), will drive some huge American corporations to explore how they can exploit a desperate country with few friends in Europe.

For the benefit of any youngsters for whom the expressions, 'Lend-Lease' and 'Anglo-American Loan' are unfamiliar, here's a link to one explanation thanks to Wiki:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-American_loan

Tom
 
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tillson

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A few weeks ago, prior to the referendum, when Obama stated that the UK was going to the back of the trade queue if it left the EU, it was a very big deal at the time. A significant disaster for the UK.

Now that Obama is at the beginning of a journey to his rightful place in history, insignificance, and trade prospects with the USA start look more favourable, trade with the USA is suddenly being talked down. It's no longer so important that we trade with the USA.

Can anyone spot a trend developing?
 
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oldgroaner

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A few weeks ago, prior to the referendum, when Obama stated that the UK was going to the back of the trade queue if it left the EU, it was a very big deal at the time. A significant disaster for the UK.

Now that Obama is at the beginning of a journey to his rightful place in history, insignificance, and trade prospects with the USA start look more favourable, trade with the USA is suddenly being talked down. It's no longer so important that we trade with the USA.

Can anyone spot a trend developing?
You looking for miracles to save us?[emoji1]

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk
 
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anotherkiwi

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To further KTM's excellent analysis of the facts of business now and post brexit, any UK business that feels it will lose out could simply jump ship and install its HQ in the EU. This will still be quite easy to do before the UK has officially left the EU.
 

anotherkiwi

Esteemed Pedelecer
Jan 26, 2015
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A few weeks ago, prior to the referendum, when Obama stated that the UK was going to the back of the trade queue if it left the EU, it was a very big deal at the time. A significant disaster for the UK.

Now that Obama is at the beginning of a journey to his rightful place in history, insignificance, and trade prospects with the USA start look more favourable, trade with the USA is suddenly being talked down. It's no longer so important that we trade with the USA.

Can anyone spot a trend developing?
I agree he didn't do as much as he could have done. But he did have to deal with an obstructionist congres and senate where the only policy was to say no to anything he said, even if what he said was in the best interests of the general public.

Or should that read "especially" if it was in the interests of the general public?
 
A few weeks ago, prior to the referendum, when Obama stated that the UK was going to the back of the trade queue if it left the EU, it was a very big deal at the time. A significant disaster for the UK.

Now that Obama is at the beginning of a journey to his rightful place in history, insignificance, and trade prospects with the USA start look more favourable, trade with the USA is suddenly being talked down. It's no longer so important that we trade with the USA.

Can anyone spot a trend developing?
ok, so what do you want? a free trade agreement with the USA? do you have any idea what the impact of that would be to UK? What strings could be attached? Free movement for US citizens? Allow US companies access to the privatisation of the NHS?

We already trade with the US... so what sort of deal would you want, a free trade deal??
 

flecc

Member
Oct 25, 2006
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A great pity that the pie chart posted by KTM was not in all the media pre referendum.
It would have helped some, but unfortunately not for the great swathe of the population whose eyes glaze over at the sight of any sort of graph or statistic.

It's not only the percentage of each expenditure that matters, what's more important is how effective the expenditure has been. Clearly the 12% spent on education hasn't been very effective.
.
 

tillson

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For those that missed it, the trend is thus:

If it's positive for the UK then it is a bad thing.

If it's bad for the UK, then the bulk of the contributors to this thread are delighted.

Sad.
 

Danidl

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It would have helped some, but unfortunately not for the great swathe of the population whose eyes glaze over at the sight of any sort of graph or statistic.

It's not only the percentage of each expenditure that matters, what's more important is how effective the expenditure has been. Clearly the 12% spent on education hasn't been very effective.
.
Well if you think. Education is expensive try ignorance...
 
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For those that missed it, the trend is thus:

If it's positive for the UK then it is a bad thing.

If it's bad for the UK, then the bulk of the contributors to this thread are delighted.

Sad.
The other trend... you're ignoring everything that doesn't fit your unicorn filled bubble.

So I'll say it again... you think a free trade agreement with the US will be a good thing? And the reason's you want to leave the EU are?? But you want to jump out of bed with a group of 27 nations, and into bed with 1 big one instead... how do you think that balance of power will play out?
 

tillson

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The other trend... you're ignoring everything that doesn't fit your unicorn filled bubble.

So I'll say it again... you think a free trade agreement with the US will be a good thing? And the reason's you want to leave the EU are?? But you want to jump out of bed with a group of 27 nations, and into bed with 1 big one instead... how do you think that balance of power will play out?
Who said that? You, me, we, don't know what the outcome of leaving the EU will be. You are fast forwarding to the worst possible outcome.
 
Who said that? You, me, we, don't know what the outcome of leaving the EU will be. You are fast forwarding to the worst possible outcome.
I'm not fast forwarding to anything. I'm asking you what you think will be positive about a free trade agreement with the US, when you don't like the free trade agreement we currently have with the EU?

If you're not happy with an agreement that put's us as one of the big boys in a club of 28.

Why do you think a deal with the US, who are much bigger, and more powerful than us would be a positive.

That's my question. How can you see that deal being a positive.

The UK wasn't even happy with a trade deal between the EU and USA, for a host of reasons. What makes you think the UK on its own can get a better deal, when we offer the US less than the EU does?
 

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