Brexit, for once some facts.

[Kudoscycles]

Old Groaner , yes I agree ,it is mostly in perfect taste.

The subject is a cause of vexation for both leavers and remainers.

I voted remain, but we have a democratic decision and must all now work for what is best for the UK.
The EU is unstable ,and could dissolve into disparate factions.

The UK government are already talking to potentially large international business partners,and I truly hope it should end up to our advantage.

Lister...this is the problem with Brexit....look at your last paragraph,re the words 'potentially,hope,it should'....you realise that Brexit has a high degree of uncertainty...what happens if we have burnt our bridges with the EU and none of 'potential,hope,it should' comes to fruition,where do we go after that?
Occasionally one of my employees gets fed up packing boxes or answering telephones,despite being well paid. I am supportive of them leaving but point out they should get a new job before throwing in the old one,but they think the grass must be greener elsewhere,most of the time they forget the idea when minimum wage is widely prevalent.....my point is that it would be prudent to see what we can achieve with the rest of the world before we exit the EU,at least some ideas?
KudosDave

 

[Kudoscycles]

So you discount him and listen to Osborne, who is now changing his mind...
On the eurozone...you know full well flecc its extremely unlikely any eu states could remain out of euro after 2020. Its well accepted for eu to work fiscally member states will have to be part of euro zone. ( Massive Telegraph report arguing pros and cons)
We both know if we stay and if euro remains past around 2020 we will adopt euro. Fact is remainers dont like admitting the fact.

Sorry Zlatan,you are talking complete rubbish.....there is no reference whatsoever that suggests we will ever join the euro.....new EU entrants may be compelled to embrace the euro on the basis of big is best,but we have no intention of joining the Euro.
If Theresa May even suggested that she is forgetting Brexit,the £ would rocket up,the Euro would be hit but it is a big currency,like a tanker it takes a lot to change course.
The only reason we seem to be continuing with Brexit is Theresa May has strapped herself on an old nag,that is attempting to do the Grand National,I wonder which fence she will fall off,the landing could be hard!
KudosDave

 

[Danidl]

Nonesense again flecc.

I wonder how many are sick of the dismissal of any supporting brexit. I certainly am.
Folk who blatantly know more about finances and fiscal matters than the entire group posting on here are just dismissed at a whim.
I,m sick of the negativity. I,m sick of the provarication. caused by such as on here.
We,ve voted, we decided on June 23rd.

We should be out by now.

Zlantan I have never disrespected your views yet. There are a number of statements in this short post which do need to be clarified.
1. There is almost certainly a greater collective knowledge of the discipline of economics than is available within this forum. There is likewise a greater knowledge of banking, of security, of policing , of military matters, of manufacturing . What was surprisingly to me an outsider, was that the most senior representives in these areas adviced publicly and in advance of the referendum, that going for brexit was unsafe. Surprisingly because senior officers do not engage in public political matters. Their views were sidelined by the pro brexit side at the time. It is now gratifying to note that you, representing the brexit side acknowledge that such experts have expertise.
2. Had the competent authority in the UK drafted a letter seeking to invoke article 50 , it would have been acted upon. The problem from the UK perspective is that it has not yet decided who is this competent authority.
3. While not referring to this posting, but to the previous section regarding your Queens alleged comment, leaving the EU is a simple event and could be well have been triggered. The consequences for the UK are not simple. It is only after the vote was taken and the euphoria evaporated that these consequences are being realised.
4. As has been stated previously, the referendum was consultative only . Your state operates a different format of democracy than mine. Had we run such a referendum, it would have been binding and it would have included thresholds .
5. I have been reading many of the contributions here and while I accept that some from the remainder side have been deliberately provacative, indeed insulting, I am also waiting for a well argued case for the brexit case.

So I ask of you this question . Why do you think the UK will be better placed to meet the challenges of the 21st and 22nd centuries on its own rather than linked with the 27 neighbours with which it shares 15 centuries of history. ?

 

[Woosh]

The issue for both sides is future costs. To remain in the EU, there will be reduction of sovereignty, rise in population and forever more regulations. To leave the EU, there will be the lower value of the Pound because of capital flight, endemic trade deficit and the economy left in the hands of free for all capitalists. Neither side addresses these costs with credibility, neither side seems to be winning the argument.

 

[D8ve]

In reply to reduced sovereignty, so what!
That's glib but how many European laws do you disagree with, like killing your neighbor, it's frowned on in uk and Europe. Speed limit of 50 kph, well that's 30mph as near as dam it.
Human rights, we had an early one ( Magna carta)but that has been superseded. Europe wide arrest warrants?
How often have you made a real change in the law?
What ones would you want to change, really remembering the knock on effects?
Population change is ongoing, Europe won't change the growth rate. We need labour migration to support what we have.
More regulation? It's a fairly stable situation now. New rules require agreement, a larger body vs a smaller powerful person like boris, who will make the best decisions.

So what has the in side got to justify here?
Don't rock the boat isn't very exciting but do you wish to live in exciting times?

 

[homemoz]

Although I am only an occasional poster, I do like to keep track of what's going on in the forum. So...in defence of Zlatan. It strikes me that whatever, we say on this forum about the success or failure is only speculation whether from the remain or leave side. As a remainer, I cannot predict the future had we stayed in the EU anymore than the leavers can do when we go. Even the terms success or failure are debatable. I've been through enough organisational restructuring in my time to know that that they are usually predated by dire catastrophic predictions on one side & often unrealistic expectations on the other. The reality is that the end result is somewhere in-between. Some form of accommodation is agreed which allows the organisation carry on it's business. As with everything, there will be winners, losers and survivors. However, the world does not usually cave in & sometimes even goes against trend by having positive consequences. I don't read the reports from Osborne, Hargreaves et al so tend to go by my own experience.

The other thing is cognitive bias. We all look for arguments in support of our existing beliefs, which means that all reports need to be read with a degree of healthy scepticism. I am as good as anyone at this & find focussing more on stuff I already agree with. That is not to dismiss expert views but to look at the foundations for those views & the potential bias's of the authors. In the case of Cameron & Osborne it is possible that the case for remain was based on justifying their beliefs about austerity which is one reason it failed.

So yes, Brexit will be a challenge, but maybe it will have the effect of motivating us as a country in a way the EU has only done as a scapegoat for frustration & anger. The truth is I don't know any more than anyone else what the consequences will be. Given a re-run, I would still vote remain & from what I see on our local news, leavers would sell vote for leave, so no change there at least around here. Until something actually happens none of us will know...but maybe there is the potential of good somewhere beyond all the hype....?

 

[Zlatan]

Very good balanced post Homemoz.

Well said.

 

[Croxden]

All we need is decent leadership otherwise we're doomed.

The problem is we haven't any, in government or the opposition.

 

[homemoz]

Fully agree Croxden. BBC still intent on Corbyn bashing. Lib Dems maybe...
Personally, I would like a left wing, environmentally aware coalition govt but that is just pie in the sky.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Zlatan]

All we need is decent leadership otherwise we're doomed.

The problem is we haven't any, in government or the opposition.

Which opposition?

 

[oldgroaner]

My view is that it is probable that some means of keeping the economy ticking over at a lower level may be found, but this will not satisfy public expectations of better times that they have been promised, which can only lead to big trouble, especially when the rich start flexing their muscles and taking back control over pay and working conditions
Brexit was a demand for change for the better, not worse.

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk

 

[Croxden]

Which opposition?

Well, there's yourself...

 

[Kudoscycles]

So many seem to suggest that we cannot predict the future ,either in the EU or Brexit
My business buys from 130 factories in China and the USA,a similar number in the UK. The U.K. tends to satisfy the bespoke/low volume work,China and USA satisfies the volume work.
The effect of Brexit has been to look whether we can return work to the UK without a cost penalty ,so called onshoring,this is possible in some circumstances.....could be called the 'Trump effect'
We sell mainly to the UK but about 40% export,mostly to the EU.
The fall in the value of the pound against the US dollar has caused all imported product to rise in cost by about 20% ( currency exchange,tariff costs,shipping costs all increased). This translates to average 6-10% increase in retail prices,dependant upon margin....most of these increases have been held back by currency hedging,old stock and absorbing it for a while,but the increased prices will be most released over the next few months.
At the moment most export businesses are very busy with the EU ,the strength of the Euro v £ making our goods very cheap in Europe,but the upcoming price rises will soon negate this short term advantage.
It remains to be seen whether UK customers will accept these price rises but the effect so far seems to be an acceptance that is the cost of Brexit and we have to live with it.
Ok,now some crystal ball gazing...
It seems that May is happy to leave the single market,excepting bank passporting(need to look after the City of London)...tariffs between the UK and the EU would be a wonderful revenue earner for the government,every Audi/BMW/Merc/VW.....we aren't going to stop buying German cars even if they cost 10% more. But we import a lot of goods into the UK that we on sell to the EU ,those tariffs will make us uncompetitive in the EU,it's just as easy to ship goods from China into Rotterdam as well as Felixstowe!!
Free trade from China to the UK will make Chinese goods cheaper in the UK,this will cause job losses unless we can invest to compete with the cheap foreign imports.
Brexit is not Trump,the U.K. is not the USA,we don't have the natural resources to support an isolationist model. Trump wants to erect tariff walls between Asia and the USA,we want to break them down. Trump wants to open more trade with the U.K. ,because he knows their powerful manufacturing power supported by government aid,will swamp our modest manufacturing capability.....don't forget in WW2 how quickly the USA mobilised its powerful manufacturers.
We are turning our backs on the EU,a soft marketing region and exposing ourselves to the hard world,do we have the work ethic,investment will and cheap labour to compete with Asia?
I am already preparing for Brexit,looking at product that can stand tariffs and still compete in Europe but also looking at product that is weakly produced in the UK that with free tariffs from China will be an easy sell in the UK,but what I don't see is a post Brexit easy sell into Europe.
What I see is that we will have to sell our high tech bespoke products to the world,provided that we have the investment in education and capacity,we have no future in low tech,education will be vital.
KudosDave

 

[Kudoscycles]

Interesting article in the Guardian from the boss of the civil service union that there are not enough civil servants to accomplish Brexit and that Theresa May has closed her mind to any criticism of Brexit,any civil servant who deems to stick his head up and question the viability of Brexit is shot down as 'defying the will of the people'
The article suggests that May doesn't have the courage to carry Brexit forward ,I would suggest that she also doesn't have the ability....she made a mess of the Home Office and failed to achieve any of her immigration targets ,her pedigree is not good.
Unless the civil service proceed at all speed,we won't be ready to trigger Article 50 by March 31,what happens then?
KudosDave

 

[Woosh]

Unless the civil service proceed at all speed,we won't be ready to trigger Article 50 by March 31,what happens then?
KudosDave

She can always trigger A50 and do nothing for months. Any other choice will be harder.
Her first priority is where to find the money to keep up with the balance of payments.
She can't continue with austerity. She can't raise taxes. She will have to keep on borrowing more and more.
The BoE can do only one of the two things: keep printing and the Pound will dive further or raise interest rate, then the builders will stop building and a lot of people will go into negative equity.

 

[Kudoscycles]

She can always trigger A50 and do nothing for months. Any other choice will be harder.
Her first priority is where to find the money to keep up with the balance of payments.
She can't continue with austerity. She can't raise taxes. She will have to keep on borrowing more and more.
The BoE can do only one of the two things: keep printing and the Pound will dive further or raise interest rate, then the builders will stop building and a lot of people will go into negative equity.

She has made no attempt to support the pound,in fact she seems to give it a kicking at every opportunity....does a low pound make it easier for her to sort the government debt and deficit?
KudosDave

 

[Woosh]

The only thing Mrs May can do for the moment is to raise interest rate.
Norman Lamont tried that the day the Pound exited the ERM. He lost £8 billions by the close of the trading day and was forced to give up. The rate went briefly up to 15% that day. The lesson is clear: you cannot buck the market. The Pound was left to its fate ever since. The BoE could hardly do anything but watch when the result of the referendum was known.
The only alternative is to promise a second referendum.

 

[Zlatan]

Sorry Zlatan,you are talking complete rubbish.....there is no reference whatsoever that suggests we will ever join the euro......

KudosDave

Dave
Afraid you are the one talking rubbish.
You have absolutely no idea what future developments in eu/ eurozone will take. Nearly all heads of eurozone states have expressed desires of all members joining eurozone. Read Andrew Lilico and have a look at fiscal transfer capability within EU zone. Yes under current problems little mention of us joining zone has been mentioned, keeping us in EU is a priority for them. It will become an issue , guaranteed , if we stay in. It almost has to.
In 10 years, 20 years ? It has to become an issue if you look at mechanism within uk and eu for fiscal transfers.

 

[Zlatan]

Well, there's yourself...

I,m probably more viable than Corbyn ...about as popular.

 

[Kudoscycles]

The only thing Mrs May can do for the moment is to raise interest rate.
Norman Lamont tried that the day the Pound exited the ERM. He lost £8 billions by the close of the trading day and was forced to give up. The rate went briefly up to 15% that day. The lesson is clear: you cannot buck the market. The Pound was left to its fate ever since. The BoE could hardly do anything but watch when the result of the referendum was known.
The only alternative is to promise a second referendum.

The pound was clearly overvalued at the time of the ERM,George Soros knew that and made £1billion proving that you cannot Buck the market and Lamont was no currency trader.
KudosDave