Brexit, for once some facts.

[tillson]

[


We're not in the € zone, so this won't impact on us at all, selfishly it might actually benefit us in some ways?

So you're predicting a strong £, that will make our exports expensive, we'll also be outside the trading block who we export to most... so our exports will suffer again. And you see this being good for the UK ... how??

Although we may be out side of the euro, I seem to remember the last Greek crisis we ended up paying nearly €1 billion through the back door.

Your prediction that we will be outside the EU trading block or subject to tariffs is speculation. You or I do not know what the eventual outcome will be, so let's be a little bit more optimistic.

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

Although we may be out side of the euro, I seem to remember the last Greek crisis we ended up paying nearly €1 billion through the back door.

Your prediction that we will be outside the EU trading block or subject to tariffs is speculation. You or I do not know what the eventual outcome will be, so let's be a little bit more optimistic.

I'm not predicting it... I actually predict we'll remain in the EU, the consequences of leaving are too great for the country, and the powers that be know that. So I think we'll stay. So I'm actually pretty optimistic about it, I just hope we don't have too much turmoil getting to a situation in 2 years where nothing has really changed with regards to the EU. There are lots of things that I think need to change in the UK, but I don't think the EU cause them and leaving certainly won't solve them!

 

[tillson]

I'm not predicting it... I actually predict we'll remain in the EU, the consequences of leaving are too great for the country, and the powers that be know that. So I think we'll stay. So I'm actually pretty optimistic about it, I just hope we don't have too much turmoil getting to a situation in 2 years where nothing has really changed with regards to the EU. There are lots of things that I think need to change in the UK, but I don't think the EU cause them and leaving certainly won't solve them!

Whatever the consequences of leaving, I think that not leaving and disregarding the public vote will have a far greater adverse consequences.

The public will blame everything on the decision not to leave the EU and the anti establishment/government feeling will gain impetus with the more extreme parties gathering greater support and influence. The storm clouds for the EU are gathering in terms of the financial storm that is coming and if Britain gets dragged into that after voting to leave, the potential consequences are very unsettling. In or out of the euro we will end up paying, just as we did with Greece.

 

[trex]

Whatever the consequences of leaving, I think that not leaving and disregarding the public vote will have a far greater adverse consequences.
.

I agree with this view. As long as we stay as close as possible to the EU, Scotland won't need to choose between EU and UK. The damage to the economy is not important compared to the rise of the far right politics.

 

[(NoLongerRegistered#15675)]

Thanks KTM.
Said before you and kudos have made excellent finacial reasons to stay, dont quite agree with them but valid nonetheless.

We all vote for one way or another for our own reasons. This thread has become a microcosm of what's generally happening. Some ignorant people assume they know why others voted as they did and say as much. This is annoying on a personal level but far worse is the polarization of opinions it leads to. Peoles opinions are forced toward radicalisation to defend their stance. It should not be like that. We should all have more respect for each others opinions, intellect and research.

Nobody but nobody should have to explain why they voted ad they did.
Its wrong and undetvalues peoles understanding. People are not thick , racist, etc etc. There will be all types of people both sides of the divide.
Economically leaving seems a bigger risk. Agreed. Staying is a bigger risk politically.
My family jumped through hoops to get British Passports, which we are proud of. Without consultation we are (were?) becoming not uk citizens but eu ones.

 

[trex]

there is a difference between a passport (which carries protection) and identity (how we see ourselves). Our passort is currently British and EU, we have protection of both. After brexit, we will have lost the EU protection.
I can understand that you get irritated because some of us, including myself, posted about people we said misled by brexit campaigners. You should understand also that brexit must be only taken if the will of the people stays the same, after the lies are exposed. That means either parliament will take that decision or another referendum will decide on the final step, not the last referendum that was tainted with lies.

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

Thanks KTM.
Said before you and kudos have made excellent finacial reasons to stay, dont quite agree with them but valid nonetheless.

We all vote for one way or another for our own reasons. This thread has become a microcosm of what's generally happening. Some ignorant people assume they know why others voted as they did and say as much. This is annoying on a personal level but far worse is the polarization of opinions it leads to. Peoles opinions are forced toward radicalisation to defend their stance. It should not be like that. We should all have more respect for each others opinions, intellect and research.

Nobody but nobody should have to explain why they voted ad they did.
Its wrong and undetvalues peoles understanding. People are not thick , racist, etc etc. There will be all types of people both sides of the divide.
Economically leaving seems a bigger risk. Agreed. Staying is a bigger risk politically.
My family jumped through hoops to get British Passports, which we are proud of. Without consultation we are (were?) becoming not uk citizens but eu ones.

All true... apart from this bit..

People are not thick , racist, etc etc.

Some people are... not all people. But some people are thick and racist, some are one or the other.

The problem is that this vote appears to have given some thick and some racist people the belief that the majority of the country sides with them. It doesn't thank fully.

There a host of reasons people voted to leave, and they aren't all suddenly socially acceptable now.

 

[(NoLongerRegistered#15675)]

Trex/ KTM...agree on all.points.
Both good posts.

With proviso, I suspect racism and thickness are both closely related and very evenly distributed amongst our population.

 

[oldgroaner]

Trex/ KTM...agree on all.points.
Both good posts.

With proviso, I suspect racism and thickness are both closely related and very evenly distributed amongst our population.

Agreed

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk

 

[Kudoscycles]

I can't see how a 'soft' Brexit could work, not least because other EU states, particularly France, quite reasonably think we should either be properly in or properly out.

Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal have their own problems, and there seems some call in France for an in/out referendum.

Far from our Brexit not happening, it could be the start of a domino effect which will ultimately see the end of the EU.

It is, after all, only a treaty organisation of fairly recent invention.

It has no divine right to exist, and doesn't have the length of history underpinning it which most national borders and parliaments do.

Rob....I agree,but would the demise of the EU be good for the UK,after all 48% of our exports go to the EU.
The first economic data ,after the referendum vote,has revealed the worst downturn in the economy for 7 years. Hammond has said we have the tools to overcome the crisis....note the government is referring to Leave vote as a crisis,but May is still saying Brexit means Brexit,madness.
The current problem is uncertainty,but that is likely to continue for some time....any sensible businessman is putting on hold any new projects until matters sort themselves out,that will cause a recession.
One of my UK suppliers ,he was excited about the leave vote,he was anti immigration and voted Leave,came into my office yesterday,looking very glum....what's the problem? ....customers are cancelling all forward orders,have you got any work for me? He regrets ever voting leave and admits he didn't even think about the economy,he only thought about immigration,now that doesn't look so important,he regrets his vote,saying he was badly informed of the implications,he is not thick just a bit blinkered.
KudosDave

 

[flecc]

My family jumped through hoops to get British Passports, which we are proud of. Without consultation we are (were?) becoming not uk citizens but eu ones.

Yes, we are EU citizens in the same way that the peoples of republican countries are citizens.

But UK stands for United Kingdom, so within it we are subjects rather than citizens.
.

 

[trex]

...
would the demise of the EU be good for the UK,after all 48% of our exports go to the EU.

assuming that the important people will stick to what they have said I don't think brexit will be damaging to the economy. Trade with the EU will remain more or less same, augmented by a deal here and there with the non-aligned countries.
The strength of the Pound is a matter for the Treasury with tax and spending. If we manage to live within our means then the Pound will regain its strength.

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

More bad news for economy today, as the impacts continue to stack up.

https://twitter.com/MarcusEconomics/status/756414039505403907/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

Bit more on whats going on...

Britain's decision to leave the EU has led to a "dramatic deterioration" in economic activity, not seen since the aftermath of the financial crisis.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36864273

 

[trex]

the PMI would not worry me because it's just a poll. The real data is the ONS' Q2 current account result after the referendum. We'll know it in September or October. Current forecast for Q2 is -31.7B.

 

[oldtom]

The damage to the economy is not important compared to the rise of the far right politics.

Trex, I don't quite agree with all you said but I most certainly do agree with the part in quotes.

In my view however, it beggars belief that so many people failed to notice that the 'Brexit' camp was led by fascists with a major agenda promise to slash immigration plus a host of promises which intelligent observers viewed with cynicism. The adage, 'If something seems too good to be true, then it probably is too good to be true.' was disregarded by 52% of voters it seems.

It really shouldn't have escaped their notice as the signs were there for all to see when groups with banners, Union flags and England flags began to intimidate black and Asian people in several areas of the country. That was widely reported so I have to imagine that those people who now loudly proclaim they are not racist and not thick, knowingly linked arms with some of the most evil groups of people in Britain, not because they are experts in economics or politics but because they are either racist or thick or both.

Oswald Mosley would be very proud!

Tom

 

[trex]

they are or are not as thxxx as you put it, it's still their right to believe in these claims. The point is, if they leave brexit to parliament, it's likely that we'll keep all the trade with Europe while getting back our freedom to look elsewhere.

 

[oldtom]

There is so much smoke and mirrors around the whole EU issue and the state of the economy at the moment, it's difficult to get a handle on what is really happening on a daily basis.

We know just by looking in the Post Office or travel agents' windows that our currency is diminished in value compared to the € and the $ but the the tory propaganda organs suggest we needn't panic, everything is fine and we are recovering with the future looking very promising.

There are several other places we can look which don't simply publish the government line and this is one:

http://voxpoliticalonline.com/2016/07/22/the-real-cost-of-brexit-multi-million-pound-projects-face-the-axe/

Tom

 

[Kudoscycles]

Hammond seems a bit of a loose cannon at the moment...I bet Theresa May wasnt impressed when he said Brexit would take 6 years and today he said we have the tools to overcome the crisis,what crisis Brexit is supposed to be a good idea isnt it,not a crisis?
He should be really worried when he sees his future tax take,10% will come straight off corporation tax due to the weak pound.
How is that going to help jobs and hospitals opening in Hartlepool?
Has anybody noticed that Boris Johnson and Donald Trump seem to have the same barber.
KudosDave

 

[trex]

he is a remainer and if past performance is a guide, he's about the best in Mrs May's cabinet.