Brexit, for once some facts.

[trex]

the point is, if we engineer for the exchange rate of the pound to be lower that the market would price it (like the Chinese do with their RMB), like borrowing for infrastructure projects, then we help our future exports and at the same time, still keep a handle of inflation. This time, the Pound drops without us having any control, due to foreign investors fleeing us, we have no control on inflation. Just look at the chart again, we are next to the Argentine Peso and the Mexican Peso. Nothing to be proud of.

 

[oldgroaner]

Classic problem!!!!

You're talking about the commission... that's like talking about the department for transport. They are not an elected group and don't make decisions, they just advise on things. Its the European Parliment that will vote on it, and they are elected, by you guessed it... us!

He didn't know that did he?

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[oldgroaner]

If only it were true, Im afraid such intention has been hijacked by the commision and its own intentions. Thats the concern of not just the UK but many other countries, and until they change the mechanisms and reign in the commision which is off the leash like a rabid dog, then the EU will fail.
I hope not but it has to change and its slowness in making that happen is a bigger threat to EU than Brexit. Brexit is simply a symptom of the problem

Full marks for imagination Brendan but as usual not factual

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[BrendanJ]

the point is, if we engineer for the exchange rate of the pound to be lower that the market would price it (like the Chinese do with their RMB), like borrowing for infrastructure projects, then we help our future exports and at the same time, still keep a handle of inflation. This time, the Pound drops without us having any control, due to foreign investors fleeing us, we have no control on inflation. Just look at the chart again, we are next to the Argentine Peso and the Mexican Peso. Nothing to be proud of.

Ignore the graph Trex, its just quoting recent movement which is true but irrelevant.
Your description above is quite reasonable and what does it matter what caused it, its a positive situation to be in for the long term if you can only get your head around it.
What we now need to signal confidence to the markets is a nice healthy dose of investment
So I say go ahead with Trident, HS2 and Heathrow third runnway and additional investment to Health service. Immediately
Then watch what happens to the ex rate!!!

 

[trex]

the last time investors fleeing London, it was 2008. Then, we have had a reasonably classic approach to solving the banking crash, it took a year for foreign investors to regain confidence and come back. This time, it's our brexit strategy that causes investors to flee. How long do you think until we can demonstrate that our economy is growing again?

 

[BrendanJ]

Full marks for imagination Brendan but as usual not factual

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I thought you'd gone for your afternoon nap, welcome back
But you are totally wrong, nothing like a categoric denial (as usual not factual) to stifle all rational discussion
On 2nd thoughts I remove the welcome back

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

Who says so? Where have you heard that? Exactly why will this happen? What are the proven facts that lead to this conclusion?

Ok... here are the facts that I know.

The UK is primarily an importer, I run an import company. Costs are rising and will hit the UK hard, because a high % of our goods come from companies within the EU who buy from the Far East in $ or Yen. So for these companies, the price they pay has gone up because the € has fallen against the $, so we'd pay more. Then because the £ has also fallen against the € we also end up paying more. So that's a double exchange rate hit.

Then there is the prospect of us leaving the trade block because the UK clearly can't see the benefits of migration. So we'll be hit with tariffs, so even if both the € and £ stabilise again the €/Yen, we'll be paying more.

Because we're paying more for our goods and there is a STRONG possibility that this will lead to a recession, people tighten their belts. I was talking to a bike shop this afternoon, who has seen a big drop in sales since brexit, I was also talking to my estate agent who is panic'ing that we'll pull out of the purchase because many people are already.

If everyone spends less (which they are) then people have less money, so the UK will get a pay cut at the same time as we're paying more for everything we import.

 

[BrendanJ]

the last time investors fleeing London, it was 2008. Then, we have had a reasonably classic approach to solving the banking crash, it took a year for foreign investors to regain confidence and come back. This time, it's our brexit strategy that causes investors to flee. How long do you think until we can demonstrate that our economy is growing again?

Investors which I do not confuse with ex rate movements are not at this point fleeing London. But in any case are notoriously fickle and herd like in their behavior
Cameron talked us down with predictable results, Now we need to talk ourselves up, and for sure our own commitment to investing in Britain especially on borrowed money (at low or zero interest rates) will certainly do that
They are an emotional bunch like sheep really and are easily spooked one way or the other by a half way decent sheepdog

 

[oldgroaner]

I thought you'd gone for your afternoon nap, welcome back
But you are totally wrong, nothing like a categoric denial (as usual not factual) to stifle all rational discussion
On 2nd thoughts I remove the welcome back

Come now Brendan you were the one who goes on his instincts and facts are of marginal interest remember?
You don't do rational discussion just repeat dogma and deny anything that contradicts them a British version of
Saddam's comical ali[emoji1]

if various leaders in the EU made the kind of xenophobic noises our government has (whether individually or collectively), we'd be upset. Aside from that it doesnt matter whether "we or the government got the message that leave means leave". Overseas investors (who have kept UK out of very deep debt for years) and an EU who are entirely entitled to impose trade barriers on us are getting that message. I despise uk politicans as much as anyone else, but even so realise there arent any left that are psychopathic enough to take a road of full exit that ends up with us being beneath albania in world per capita income rankings in five years.

Why can't people, you included, just give us their own opinion on matters. You know the drill, read, digest, understand, think through, re-read, adjust opinion, summarise? Stop just copying and pasting endless links to other people's ramblings, an unknown quantity of which are complete $h!te. Lets have some original thought.

this is the view of the world about brexit
(they all think we are mad)

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[BrendanJ]

Ok... here are the facts that I know.

The UK is primarily an importer, I run an import company. Costs are rising and will hit the UK hard, because a high % of our goods come from companies within the EU who buy from the Far East in $ or Yen. So for these companies, the price they pay has gone up because the € has fallen against the $, so we'd pay more. Then because the £ has also fallen against the € we also end up paying more. So that's a double exchange rate hit.

Then there is the prospect of us leaving the trade block because the UK clearly can't see the benefits of migration. So we'll be hit with tariffs, so even if both the € and £ stabilise again the €/Yen, we'll be paying more.

Because we're paying more for our goods and there is a STRONG possibility that this will lead to a recession, people tighten their belts. I was talking to a bike shop this afternoon, who has seen a big drop in sales since brexit, I was also talking to my estate agent who is panic'ing that we'll pull out of the purchase because many people are already.

If everyone spends less (which they are) then people have less money, so the UK will get a pay cut at the same time as we're paying more for everything we import.

We will be hit with tarrifs.....; If you only ever work with the assumed worst that can happen then you will always predict dire outcomes. Just a little realism would be nice for a change
Explain why you think on balance that we are categorically going to end up with import tariffs when it is self evidentantly not in the EU's benefit to do that
Unless you believe in all that Tosh that they want to punish us and they have to to survive further possible leavers

 

[trex]

BrendanJ, investors come here to lend us money, not borrowing at low rate.
They are pulling their money out, you can see this in commercial property projects.

 

[BrendanJ]

Come now Brendan you were the one who goes on his instincts and facts are of marginal interest remember?
You don't do rational discussion just repeat dogma and deny anything that contradicts them a British version of
Saddam's comical ali[emoji1]







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I'd wait a bit before answering , I dont think you are fully awake yet

 

[BrendanJ]

BrendanJ, investors come here to lend us money, not borrowing at low rate.
They are pulling their money out, you can see this in commercial property projects.

We can borrow at low interest and invest ourselves. Such an act of faith and they will follow

 

[soundwave]

First legal attempt to prevent Brexit set for preliminary hearing


http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/08/legal-attempt-prevent-brexit-preliminary-hearing-article-50

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

We will be hit with tarrifs.....; If you only ever work with the assumed worst that can happen then you will always predict dire outcomes. Just a little realism would be nice for a change
Explain why you think on balance that we are categorically going to end up with import tariffs when it is self evidentantly not in the EU's benefit to do that
Unless you believe in all that Tosh that they want to punish us and they have to to survive further possible leavers

Do you know any country that has access to the EEC, that doesn't accept freedom of movement?

There are only 2 options,

1) we accept freedom of movement (in fact it'll probably be more free than now, because Norway and Switzerland have had to agree to the Shengin agreement). Which is clearly what the UK has a problem with.

or)

2) we leave the EEC and therefore are subject to tarrif's even in Switzerland, there is a 9% tarrif on bikes.

So how can you envisage a future outside the EU that doesn't involve tariffs then?

 

[tillson]

Ok... here are the facts that I know.

The UK is primarily an importer, I run an import company. Costs are rising and will hit the UK hard, because a high % of our goods come from companies within the EU who buy from the Far East in $ or Yen. So for these companies, the price they pay has gone up because the € has fallen against the $, so we'd pay more. Then because the £ has also fallen against the € we also end up paying more. So that's a double exchange rate hit.

Then there is the prospect of us leaving the trade block because the UK clearly can't see the benefits of migration. So we'll be hit with tariffs, so even if both the € and £ stabilise again the €/Yen, we'll be paying more.

Because we're paying more for our goods and there is a STRONG possibility that this will lead to a recession, people tighten their belts. I was talking to a bike shop this afternoon, who has seen a big drop in sales since brexit, I was also talking to my estate agent who is panic'ing that we'll pull out of the purchase because many people are already.

If everyone spends less (which they are) then people have less money, so the UK will get a pay cut at the same time as we're paying more for everything we import.

We are 336 hours into the result of the referendum being declared. The pound is stronger against the Euro than it was between 2009 and 2013. The pound recovered then and it may or may not do so again. You don't know which way it will go.

You don't know if we will be hit by tariffs or at what level they will be set if they are introduced, so you can't speculate on their affect.

When was it stated that the UK can't see the benefits of migration? No one has ever said this, its all in your mind. What has actually been said that migration needs to be managed, just like anything else. So quite the opposite applies, the UK can see the benefits of migration and wants to maximise the opportunities for both migrants and the UK.

So you see, your imagination is running away with you and you are starting to see things that aren't there. I'm not saying that what you predict won't happen, but its far from certain and equally, net benefits may result. To start predicting recession and a devastated economy 336 hours into the process isn't good for anyone.

Chill out, lay back and prepare for the good times.

 

[BrendanJ]

First legal attempt to prevent Brexit set for preliminary hearing


http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/08/legal-attempt-prevent-brexit-preliminary-hearing-article-50

And no doubt those court hearings will last for at least 3 years and will in effect be posthumous. If someone is will to waste money on legal costs for something like that then let them

 

[BrendanJ]

Do you know any country that has access to the EEC, that doesn't accept freedom of movement?

There are only 2 options,

1) we accept freedom of movement (in fact it'll probably be more free than now, because Norway and Switzerland have had to agree to the Shengin agreement). Which is clearly what the UK has a problem with.

or)

2) we leave the EEC and therefore are subject to tarrif's even in Switzerland, there is a 9% tarrif on bikes.

So how can you envisage a future outside the EU that doesn't involve tariffs then?

We leave the EEC, that is what we have decided. The only thing to discuss from now is whether we enjoy free trade or not. As Ive said before if not then they lose as much as we do, in fact I think substantially more. They have an existential crisis based on their economic failures. They cannot afford not to reach some agreement.
Do you think they have freedom of movement with the whole world they trade with. Your suppositions are nonsense and self serving

 

[tillson]

2) we leave the EEC and therefore are subject to tarrif's even in Switzerland, there is a 9% tarrif on bikes.

So how can you envisage a future outside the EU that doesn't involve tariffs then?

The UK's economy is much larger than Switzerland's. Why will it not be possible for us to negotiate a better deal than they get?

It's the same with many things. For example, Tesco can negotiate a better deal from its suppliers than Fred's Corner Shop because Tesco is a big trader.

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

We leave the EEC, that is what we have decided. The only thing to discuss from now is whether we enjoy free trade or not. As Ive said before if not then they lose as much as we do, in fact I think substantially more. They have an existential crisis based on their economic failures. They cannot afford not to reach some agreement.
Do you think they have freedom of movement with the whole world they trade with. Your suppositions are nonsense and self serving

When did we decide that? Some of us voted to leave the EU, the EEC is not the same thing. Again part of the problem with this debate.

if we loose free trade, we will loose a LOT more than them, we are not a big market, and we'll suddenly not just be not part of the club, we'll be competing with that club on the global market. We'll loose loads of business that are currently in the UK because we provide access to the EU.