Brexit, for once some facts.

[(NoLongerRegistered#15675)]

I voted remain on the basis of what I believe in, and some very simple fundamental macroeconomics (current account deficit, fiscal deficit,fact that most UK exports are services, to the EU). Frankly it doesn't take an economist to see brexit is a very bad idea. Other than some misplaced xenophobia, I really cannot see an upside to brexit. Ive worked as a specialist in the NHS. Honestly, in amongst the staff and patient groups I work with immigration have been nothing other than a massive contribution to UK wealth and health.

And there you go again, xenophobic.. I voted out for nothing to do with immigration...and frankly derf you know feck all about economics ...and chances are you and your type pedalling the doom are exactly the ones who have been conned and indoctrinated for those who do know about econics( or the stock market) to make a fortune out of. I,ll be, well I know, there are speculators laughing there socks off counting the fortunes they,ve made by all this panic and hysteria..let me explain .. I do know a bit about stock market.

There are essentially two things that will reduce the value of any given stock.
One is if company puts out poor performance figures . Dividends drop, share price falls accordingly.
The second is a drop in confidence about that company or market it trades in.
Speculators love the latter.
I,ll explain.
Lets say you own 100 shares , value £10 each..As a speculator you guess price is going to drop..So you sell immediately. Put £1000 on account and wait. Osbourne does his business and prices ( as reported on bbc) drop off a cliff. Bottom out at £5 each. You notice Tesco aren't actually performing any different so buy your shares back..this time at £5 each. Because firm is actually doing well dividends will be unaffected. Only thing is you now have £500 still on account and still own the 100 shares you had yesterday, which have probably recovered to their £10 value in a few days.
Its your type that have been conned and London speculators are laughing.
The markets are fine.
The pound dropped because of hysteria nothing more.
And to be honest I blame Osbourne and folk like you for buying into it.

 

[Kudoscycles]

I wouldn't dismis the second biggest economy in the EU quite so lightly.

If the EU do put a 9% tariff on our goods and we do likewise raising the cost of say German products, more the fool those who buy them.

We will pay it because we love German products,it will not affect the imports of Audi,BMW or Mercedes,it will not affect the imports of KTM or Kalkhoff....every car I have bought over the last 30 years has been German.
But will they buy our products if the EU put a 9% tariff,especially if that product can be bought direct from Asia,they will short circuit the UK.
KudosDave

 

[derf]

And there you go again, xenophobic.. I voted out for nothing to do with immigration...and frankly derf you know feck all about economics ...and chances are you and your type pedalling the doom are exactly the ones who have been conned and indoctrinated for those who do know about econics( or the stock market) to make a fortune out of. I,ll be, well I know, there are speculators laughing there socks off counting the fortunes they,ve made by all this panic and hysteria..let me explain .. I do know a bit about stock market.

There are essentially two things that will reduce the value of any given stock.
One is if company puts out poor performance figures . Dividends drop, share price falls accordingly.
The second is a drop in confidence about that company or market it trades in.
Speculators love the latter.
I,ll explain.
Lets say you own 100 shares , value £10 each..As a speculator you guess price is going to drop..So you sell immediately. Put £1000 on account and wait. Osbourne does his business and prices ( as reported on bbc) drop off a cliff. Bottom out at £5 each. You notice Tesco aren't actually performing any different so buy your shares back..this time at £5 each. Because firm is actually doing well dividends will be unaffected. Only thing is you now have £500 still on account and still own the 100 shares you had yesterday, which have probably recovered to their £10 value in a few days.
Its your type that have been conned and London speculators are laughing.
The markets are fine.
The pound dropped because of hysteria nothing more.
And to be honest I blame Osbourne and folk like you for buying into it.

You make too many assumptions, about the economy, pound, and even me. Theres a principle called occam's razor in the philosophy of science thats about the relationship begeeen the number of premises supporting a hypothesis and its likely validity. I enjoy investing,have done it for years,its why I know the little I do about the economy. The drop in the pound has nothing to do with hysteria and everything to do with the UK's gaping current account deficit. But I'm afraid I do not feel able to have this argument again

 

[tillson]

We will pay it because we love German products,it will not affect the imports of Audi,BMW or Mercedes,it will not affect the imports of KTM or Kalkhoff....every car I have bought over the last 30 years has been German.
But will they buy our products if the EU put a 9% tariff,especially if that product can be bought direct from Asia,they will short circuit the UK.
KudosDave

I really don't know how you can predict this with such certainty and confidence.

What about us buying products directly from Asia instead of the EU? I have driven German cars for many years, they are ok, but others are available. Everything you say in your post cuts both ways. Everything.

The EU don't want to go down this route. Why would they want to turn away a customer that wants to spend a lot of money with them?

I really don't understand this constant talking down of the U.K. It's a disease, a shameful sickness. Do you really hate the UK so much?

 

[Kudoscycles]

I cannot at this moment see one single benefit in us leaving the EU.
I trade with just about every major country in the world....I haven't found any deterrent to trading with say New Zealand,Australia or South Africa.....what is leaving the EU going to help me with trading with those countries?
But I trade with every EU country,I can see a massive problem if I am hindered with dealing with those countries....what is going to happen about vat,we currently supply B2B at zero rate,that is such a simple mechanism,would those same customers find it attractive if they had to pay vat before shipping.
I remember prior EEC that we had to use a customs agent for every consignment ,Are we to return to those archaic trading ways?
I don't think Mr Joe Public understands the practical obstacles that the EU can place in our trading relationships.
Cameron and Osborne should be sacked for the way they presented the Remain case,most I talk to did not realise the effects of Leaving...I think the Remain lobby assumed they would win so didn't have to try too hard,the Leave lobby assumed they would lose so had no plan when they won,hence why Gove,Boris and Farage have now jumped ship.
We are currently in an awful mess and if it isn't sorted quickly there will be many bankruptcies and job losses,the economy wasn't that robust before we started the referendum and it can't take the hit. Voting Leave doesn't look so clever when you lose your job or house.
I personally think our generation is very selfish....those of us who owned our houses bought in the 60/70's have seen a massive increase in house prices,the equity offering a comfortable life style....our children are now paying massive mortgages to satisfy our life style.
We had free education,I had a grant to go to uni...our children are now exiting uni with £50k debts.
And now we have voted to prevent our children and grandchildren having free access to Europe to enjoy cheap travel and access to European jobs,it's all very selfish.
KudosDave

 

[Kudoscycles]

I really don't know how you can predict this with such certainty and confidence.

What about us buying products directly from Asia instead of the EU? I have driven German cars for many years, they are ok, but others are available. Everything you say in your post cuts both ways. Everything.

The EU don't want to go down this route. Why would they want to turn away a customer that wants to spend a lot of money with them?

I really don't understand this constant talking down of the U.K. It's a disease, a shameful sickness. Do you really hate the UK so much?

I am certain,look around the car park at Gatwick Airport,90% of the cars are German,which Asian car would you feel comfortable buying?The Chinese have massive import tariffs on imported cars but every 5 star hotel and government office is full of BMW and Audi cars,for some reason the steering committee has moved away from Mercedes,we would be the same,a9% tariff would be no deterrent to us buying German.
Let's be honest the only reason we buy from Asia is price.
I am still certain that we won't leave the EU and the referendum was a waste of time and money,only exercised because Cameron thought it would finally cure the split in the Tories,if anything it has made it worse.
I love the UK,I travel the world selling my products, which is why I don't want us to self destruct with this ridiculous Brexit experiment.
Am still looking for an upside after Brexit?
KudosDave

 

[(NoLongerRegistered#15675)]

You make too many assumptions, about the economy, pound, and even me. Theres a principle called occam's razor in the philosophy of science thats about the relationship begeeen the number of premises supporting a hypothesis and its likely validity. I enjoy investing,have done it for years,its why I know the little I do about the economy. The drop in the pound has nothing to do with hysteria and everything to do with the UK's gaping current account deficit. But I'm afraid I do not feel able to have this argument again

If you knew so much you,d know that gapung gap has nothing at all to do with Brexit...The pound dropped because folk lost faith in UK ltd because of all the BS , which your posts are full of.

OG
And exactly what has eu done ? In Afghanistan? In Syria? In the Gulf? In eastern Europe? This peace we have all enjoyed in UK has nothing at all to do with eu and you know it. Read ex head of army,s view about eu.
Its been the UK ,USA, Nato and UN attempting to keep stability in world. EU has done nothing..because it has neither the will, organisation or capability. Its fecking useless unless you call fishiing quotas keeping world peace.

 

[(NoLongerRegistered#15675)]

And while I,m at it I,m fecking sick of folk telling me I either haven't researched brexit, or I,m xenophobic or a racist or plain thick for not agreeing with all these closet key board warriors coming out of woodwork.all the stayers taking to keyboards for petitions' in their drives. All knowing more than everyone else. If you spent as much time actually doing something productive rather than this hysterical spouting country would be thriving..
We voted out, we are leaving. Get over it.

 

[derf]

If you knew so much you,d know that gapung gap has nothing at all to do with Brexit...The pound dropped because folk lost faith in UK ltd because of all the BS , which your posts are full of.

OG
And exactly what has eu done ? In Afghanistan? In Syria? In the Gulf? In eastern Europe? This peace we have all enjoyed in UK has nothing at all to do with eu and you know it. Read ex head of army,s view about eu.
Its been the UK ,USA, Nato and UN attempting to keep stability in world. EU has done nothing..because it has neither the will, organisation or capability. Its fecking useless unless you call fishiing quotas keeping world peace.

No, the current account t deficit was always a problem plugged by offshore investment (think commercial property funds, yes the same that blocked withdrawals). Overseas investors are withdrawing. Really you brexiters are the living proof that the UK would be an amoebic dogs breakfast without immigrants to sort things out for you.

 

[(NoLongerRegistered#15675)]

Like you said always a problem...
And by the way we are all brexiters now. Get a life for gods sake.
Like you know what's going to happen, which trade deals we get, what tariffs are introduced. You know absolutely nothing about any of it, but how many times have you now repeated pound has dropped, or trade deficit. Yes we know and its purely because of hysteria , which you ate adding to.
And if you knew what you were talking about you,d also know the property situation started moths ago but when you are hysterical you do get irrational.

Just do some research and see who and how much some folk have benefited in last 2 weeks...

 

[derf]

Like you said always a problem...
And by the way we are all brexiters now. Get a life for gods sake.

Yes,the one thing you do not do when as the governor of the bank of England says "you rely on the kindness of strangers" I.e. overseas investors is to tell them to fuk off. That in a nutshell is what you did when you voted leave. You told those funding the massive overdraft of the UK's under productive economy to get lost. Hope you're happy.

 

[Kudoscycles]

And while I,m at it I,m fecking sick of folk telling me I either haven't researched brexit, or I,m xenophobic or a racist or plain thick for not agreeing with all these closet key board warriors coming out of woodwork.all the stayers taking to keyboards for petitions' in their drives. All knowing more than everyone else. If you spent as much time actually doing something productive rather than this hysterical spouting country would be thriving..
We voted out, we are leaving. Get over it.

Fluid
The referendum was only advisory it has no power,17 million voted out,16 million voted remain,it's hardly a mandate,it advised that the country was very closely split.
I notice nobody has argued with me that the only way we can leave is a vote in Parliament to trigger Article 50, if that vote was had tomorrow 450 MP's would vote remain,in fact we know there are only 84 Leave voters in the Tories( those that voted Leadsome)
Come on guys tell me how we are ever going to leave the EU when our Parliament is full of Remainers,450 out of 650?
I don't see how a General Election will change those numbers,if anything Theresa May's election may change some of the Leavers.
This thread seems full of emotion but it strikes me that Pedelec members seem to struggle with arithmetic.
KudosDave

 

[shemozzle999]

Yes, we have done what the Greeks should have done, tell them to get lost, we are not going to feed the globalization monster any more even though Mark Carney is still trying to play their game. I doubt he will be welcomed back in Canada when he eventually gets his marching orders - the financial bubble has burst - these global currencies are all bankrupt - we will now all be in it together rich and the poor - it is a rough awakening but better the youth of today face up to it now than somewhere further down the line.

 

[(NoLongerRegistered#15675)]

Fluid
The referendum was only advisory it has no power,17 million voted out,16 million voted remain,it's hardly a mandate,it advised that the country was very closely split.
I notice nobody has argued with me that the only way we can leave is a vote in Parliament to trigger Article 50, if that vote was had tomorrow 450 MP's would vote remain,in fact we know there are only 84 Leave voters in the Tories( those that voted Leadsome)
Come on guys tell me how we are ever going to leave the EU when our Parliament is full of Remainers,450 out of 650?
I don't see how a General Election will change those numbers,if anything Theresa May's election may change some of the Leavers.
This thread seems full of emotion but it strikes me that Pedelec members seem to struggle with arithmetic.
KudosDave

Think you need bringing up to speed Dave..There is no way next pm will put vote to house and even if she does they,ll follow orders...to leave...
Government lawyers have said as much..the law saying PM needs to go to house will be amended at least and probably resinded. Keep up Dave..

 

[derf]

Yes, we have done what the Greeks should have done, tell them to get lost, we are not going to feed the globalization monster any more even though Mark Carney is still trying to play their game. I doubt he will be welcomed back in Canada when he eventually gets his marching orders - the financial bubble has burst - these global currencies are all bankrupt - we will now all be in it together rich and the poor - it is a rough awakening but better the youth of today face up to it now than somewhere further down the line.

Overseas investors are not monsters. Many of these alleged monsters are pension funds,who fund capital projects,for governments,to provide services to the public. As an aside much of that is freezing because they have deficits caused in part by UK government bonds yields falling to new lows as a result of BoE stimulating or trying to the economy. If there are any monsters in this parody of a frankly absurd but expensive comedy it's the likes of Boris or garage,exploiting the poor and uninformed they care less than nothing about.

 

[shemozzle999]

There is no money, pension funds are being made to buy toxic debt when interest rates go negative.

 

[derf]

There is no money, pension funds are being made to buy toxic debt when interest rates go negative.

Interest rates will not go negative in UK,BoE officially said this,What do you mean with toxic debt?

 

[shemozzle999]

The game is up.

They can say what they like when others go negative they will jump on board.

You can quote all the figures you like when you multiply them by nothing the result is always nothing.

Now converting my recently converted pre-brexit suitcase of dollars into non perishable food stock because you can't eat gold.

 

[derf]

The game is up.

They can say what they like when others go negative they will jump on board.

You can quote all the figures you like when you multiply them by nothing the result is always nothing.

Now converting my recently converted pre-brexit suitcase of dollars into non perishable food stock because you can't eat gold.

In the real world inflation will go up,lots,because of depreciating pound. Eventually,kicking and screaming,BoE will raise interest rates,lots. Whoever is in power then will go,like Tories in 90's. However,I'll look after that suitcase of dollars,pre brexit or not. I know a place where it will buy loads of fun

 

[Kudoscycles]

Think you need bringing up to speed Dave..There is no way next pm will put vote to house and even if she does they,ll follow orders...to leave...
Government lawyers have said as much..the law saying PM needs to go to house will be amended at least and probably resinded. Keep up Dave..

Sorry Flud,but it is you who are out of date.There is currently an action to be heard on July 19 to ensure that article 50 can only be triggered by Parliament and not by the PM. This is a preemptive strike just in case Leadsom becomes our PM,unlikely but possible.
This is why May keeps banging the Brexit drum ,she needs to impress as many Leavers within the 150,000 Tory Party members that she will push the Leave button,she won't be in a hurry to do that once she becomes PM.
There are no end of heavy lawyers ,Mischcon de Reya being one of many,waiting to ensure that the only mechanism to trigger Article 50 is Parliament,I cannot find any reference to government lawyers making any comments....perhaps you would care to the reference,or was it hopeful optimism on your part?
Parliament is sovereign in the UK,referendums are not normally legally binding on Parliament. The exception was the 2011 referendum on changing the electoral system to alternative vote,where the legislation obligated the government to change the law to reflect a 'yes' one,but no such provision was contained within the EU referendum legislation,Parliament can ignore the result.
Theresa May won't use the whip to get Article 50 through Parliament,even if she did the arithmetic of rebel Tories,SNP,Labour and especially Lib Dems would vote it down.
The only logical way forward is for May to negotiate such a favourable position with the EU that staying in looks attractive and put that in a new manifesto and go to a General Election,such a new manifesto would delete the effect of the current referendum ,the people would have a second opportunity to vote....in General Elections people tend to vote for the party not the cause and May won't make Cameron's mistake she will do the job properly,many Leavers are already regretting their Leave vote now that we have some sight of the effects.
Do your homework you will see that the foregoing is correct.
It ain't over until the fat lady sings!
KudosDave