Brexit, for once some facts.

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

The UK's economy is much larger than Switzerland's. Why will it not be possible for us to negotiate a better deal than they get?

It's the same with many things. For example, Tesco can negotiate a better deal from its suppliers than Fred's Corner Shop because Tesco is a big trader.

Ok, so lets use your Tesco analogy.

We're (the UK) is currently one of the parts of Tesco (the EU). So we have access to all of Tesco's customers, and we can trade internally with all the other aisles (countries), all under one friendly roof. What we've elected to do, is set up outside, in the carpark. We'll be outside the roof so not benefiting from anything and we'll be selling from our van boot.

We'll have gone from being in the club to competing with it!

 

[derf]

Silly boy, and a chicken. What Tislon is trying to say to you is if you know so much then dont depend so much on ther peoples words or quotes or the "famous facts, which are nothing of the sort" demonstrate with your intellect and arguments that can be fair balanced and convincing.
Too much of a challenge for you, me thinks
Chicken!

what can i say brendan. ive left the playground youre in, in which its about name calling and patronising and dismissal of views one does not understand behind, some time ago. You and Tillson's problem, i think, is that you dont read much, at all. You disregard the world of evidence and knowledge for the sake of inflated unsubstantiated views you cannot defend objectively. so you belittle others instead. That's a more general leave vote problem. I think you'll find the financial shitstorm that's about to burst over you less forgiving of this kind of behaviour than me, or others, on this forum.

 

[tillson]

Ok, so lets use your Tesco analogy.

We're (the UK) is currently one of the parts of Tesco (the EU). So we have access to all of Tesco's customers, and we can trade internally with all the other aisles (countries), all under one friendly roof. What we've elected to do, is set up outside, in the carpark. We'll be outside the roof so not benefiting from anything and we'll be selling from our van boot.

We'll have gone from being in the club to competing with it!

You forgot a couple of things. We are Tesco's second biggest customer and we are saying that we will still buy your goods and you buy a percentage (45% and falling this time last year) of ours in return. Oh, and we will be setting up a depot next door. Now I can't see why Tesco would want to start throwing eggs at the front of our shop and putting cat $h!t through the letter box. They stand to lose a very good customer and with all that is going on in the EU, one they very much don't want or need to lose.

Now if it was their 20th largest customer, one who just pops in for the occasional ready meal for one and a toilet roll, Tesco might not be too bothered about losing them. They might consider charging that sort of customer to use the car park.

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

You forgot a couple of things. We are Tesco's second biggest customer and we are saying that we will still buy your goods and you buy a percentage (45% and falling this time last year) of ours in return. Oh, and we will be setting up a depot next door. Now I can't see why Tesco would want to start throwing eggs at the front of our shop and putting cat $h!t through the letter box. They stand to lose a very good customer and with all that is going on in the EU, one they very much don't want or need to lose.

Now if it was their 20th largest customer, one who just pops in for the occasional ready meal for one and a toilet roll, Tesco might not be too bothered about losing them. They might consider charging that sort of customer to use the car park.

Couple of points, if we leave the EU (Assuming trade doesn't suffer, we'd actually be the largest EU Customer).

https://fullfact.org/europe/where-does-eu-export/

Yes.... that's my other point... we might be a customer of the EU (Tesco)... we still will be, where else are we going to buy our stuff from?? They aren't going to stop selling to us, they're just going to make it more difficult for us to sell to their customers, and if they buy from us, they might stop because its easier to buy internally than from us.

So our export to the EU will suffer.

 

[Kudoscycles]

From the Leavers I have spoken to,most didn't care about the economy,the whole referendum was about immigration.
Ironically they will soon get their wish for the migrants to go home,we have voted ourselves into a recession,if there isnt any work for the EE workers,they will soon go home,the UK is an expensive country to live in if you havent got a job.
I hope they haven't voted themselves out of a job as well.
KudosDave

 

[oldgroaner]

And if the hope is as announced here
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/687410/Germany-EU-referendum-Merkel
Germany demands its own Referendum?
It is well and truly shot down here
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/08/brexit-causes-resurgence-in-pro-eu-leanings-across-continent

Sorry chaps but the theory that our leaving will destroy the EU is another one of those balloons you keep waving that get pricked.
And the Express maintains it's world record breaking run of non stop lies about the EU.
30 years of lying every day, why even the Daily Mail isn't that consistent!

 

[tillson]

Couple of points, if we leave the EU (Assuming trade doesn't suffer, we'd actually be the largest EU Customer).

https://fullfact.org/europe/where-does-eu-export/

Yes.... that's my other point... we might be a customer of the EU (Tesco)... we still will be, where else are we going to buy our stuff from?? They aren't going to stop selling to us, they're just going to make it more difficult for us to sell to their customers.

This is the posting cat $h!t through the letter box scenario. Why would they want to do that? We can get a big shovel full of dog crap in the form of 50% tariff on BMWs and leave that on their doorstep, thus wiping out 20% of that industry and putting thousands out of work, if that's they way they want it. I'm sure angry faced UK sales reps would be just as happy tailgating in a Jag or Range Rover.

The truth is, no one wants to go down that route. Why on earth would they want to do that? The EU has enough trouble both now and on the horizon, without self inflicting more.

We can always shop at Morrisons or Sainsbury's or M&S in future. Other suppliers are available.

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

Look, I work for a company that imports from the EU (we work with 4 EU companies currently, KTM is just one of them)... it's not BMW, but the issues are the same, and very real. Its going to be harder and more expensive to bring stuff into the UK, for a number of tax, logistic and exchange rate issues, even before a tariff is imposed.

No one is going to impose a 50% tariff, so don't exaggerate. If its the same as other countries outside the EEC, we expect it to be 9% on bikes (for instance).

And using your analogy again, yes other suppliers are available... but this county likes German cars. So if they are 10% more expensive, it won't stop them being sold here, they'll just be subject to the same tariffs US cars are currently. We're not a big enough market in the global sense to make a big difference.

The UK is not big time like some people think...

 

[flecc]

Chill out, lay back and prepare for the good times.

That sounds horribly like the old saying, "If rape is inevitable, lay back and think of England".
.

 

[flecc]

yes other suppliers are available... but this county likes German cars. So if they are 10% more expensive, it won't stop them being sold here, they'll just be subject to the same tariffs US cars are currently.

And we'll have to continue to buy the parts for the vast number of German cars we already have here, itself a substantial scale of imports from the EU.
.

 

[gray198]

Brendan, I hope your pension is index linked. Just look at the price of annuities to see where we are heading. A year from now, the lesson will be learned.

Annuities have been falling long before brexit

 

[gray198]

It's easy, you just move to Dali-Gas or Zog Energy. And BGs greed has nothing to do with BREXIT, that is just BG being a hateful bunch of b@stards who should be incinerated with their own gas.
You don't like them then??

Nothing would give me greater pleasure than to see all of BGs customers desert them and to see the entire stinking dung heap that is BG rot into the ground. Never has there been a worse company than BG. Everyone, from the bog cleaner to the CEO, is a w@nker.

 

[(NoLongerRegistered#15675)]

There are two issues that have completely staggered me over past couple of weeks.
First is our governments complete and utter lack of planning for brexit.
The second which I find more appalling is the sheer utter self righteousness of many stayers, a couple of whom are plainly evident on here.
Derf tells us all he isn't an economist ( and that leavers haven't read anything) but then goes on to predict economic disaster in his next utterances.

Open up a graphic of ftse (250 and / or 100) expand time scale to a year and it becomes difficult to actually spot brexit. Open it to3 years and its simply nothing spectacular, normal fluctuations in what have been stagnant figures with high frequency small fluctations over past 10 years now.
Yes, the pound has dropped and that can be put down to the appalling fear campaign which has brainwashed Derf, KTM, and OG, yet ironically each claim its leavers who have been indoctrinated.
Even Osbourne is now saying we cab have a bright financial future post Brexit, some have been saying that all along, IDS, Lord Howe, Mervyn King and obviously Peter Hargreaves have all said uk can and will prosper out of EU, but OG and Derf know better.
For goodness sake by all means express an opinion but don't assume your side have not been indoctrinated or that for some reason your arguments are some how based on more valid , better researched criteria.Its very divisive and lowers the credibility of your position. I,m aiming this at derf..I think some of your comments to Tilson/ Brendan and on occasions all leavers are totally out of line.
We are all capable of reseraching , we just choose to believe different things.

On brexit , did annnybody else see Marks and Sparks report. Terrible last 3 months... blamed on brexit !!! Poor consumer confidence...ah ah ah...

And OG, yes you can belittle our small force sent to Poland / east Europe. What has eu done ? They,ll probably talk about it.If our security was reliant on eu we,d have been talking Russian 20 years ago. The EU has done feck all in any conflict...ever...and couldn't put a fight up against Russian football hooligans never mind Russian army.

 

[derf]

There are two issues that have completely staggered me over past couple of weeks.
First is our governments complete and utter lack of planning for brexit.
The second which I find more appalling is the sheer utter self righteousness of many stayers, a couple of whom are plainly evident on here.
Derf tells us all he isn't an economist ( and that leavers haven't read anything) but then goes on to predict economic disaster in his next utterances.

Open up a graphic of ftse (250 and / or 100) expand time scale to a year and it becomes difficult to actually spot brexit. Open it to3 years and its simply nothing spectacular, normal fluctuations in what have been stagnant figures with high frequency small fluctations over past 10 years now.
Yes, the pound has dropped and that can be put down to the appalling fear campaign which has brainwashed Derf, KTM, and OG, yet ironically each claim its leavers who have been indoctrinated.
Even Osbourne is now saying we cab have a bright financial future post Brexit, some have been saying that all along, IDS, Lord Howe, Mervyn King and obviously Peter Hargreaves have all said uk can and will prosper out of EU, but OG and Derf know better.
For goodness sake by all means express an opinion but don't assume your side have not been indoctrinated or that for some reason your arguments are some how based on more valid , better researched criteria.Its very divisive and lowers the credibility of your position. I,m aiming this at derf..I think some of your comments to Tilson/ Brendan and on occasions all leavers are totally out of line.
We are all capable of reseraching , we just choose to believe different things.

On brexit , did annnybody else see Marks and Sparks report. Terrible last 3 months... blamed on brexit !!! Poor consumer confidence...ah ah ah...

And OG, yes you can belittle our small force sent to Poland / east Europe. What has eu done ? They,ll probably talk about it.If our security was reliant on eu we,d have been talking Russian 20 years ago. The EU has done feck all in any conflict...ever...and couldn't put a fight up against Russian football hooligans never mind Russian army.

I voted remain on the basis of what I believe in, and some very simple fundamental macroeconomics (current account deficit, fiscal deficit,fact that most UK exports are services, to the EU). Frankly it doesn't take an economist to see brexit is a very bad idea. Other than some misplaced xenophobia, I really cannot see an upside to brexit. Ive worked as a specialist in the NHS. Honestly, in amongst the staff and patient groups I work with immigration have been nothing other than a massive contribution to UK wealth and health.

 

[tillson]

Look, I work for a company that imports from the EU (we work with 4 EU companies currently, KTM is just one of them)... it's not BMW, but the issues are the same, and very real. Its going to be harder and more expensive to bring stuff into the UK, for a number of tax, logistic and exchange rate issues, even before a tariff is imposed.

No one is going to impose a 50% tariff, so don't exaggerate. If its the same as other countries outside the EEC, we expect it to be 9% on bikes (for instance).

And using your analogy again, yes other suppliers are available... but this county likes German cars. So if they are 10% more expensive, it won't stop them being sold here, they'll just be subject to the same tariffs US cars are currently. We're not a big enough market in the global sense to make a big difference.

The UK is not big time like some people think...

I wouldn't dismis the second biggest economy in the EU quite so lightly.

If the EU do put a 9% tariff on our goods and we do likewise raising the cost of say German products, more the fool those who buy them.

 

[tillson]

Ive worked as a specialist in the NHS. Honestly, in amongst the staff and patient groups I work with immigration have been nothing other than a massive contribution to UK wealth and health.

I agree. Who by the way are you trying to convince? Did someone say that immigrants with skills that fill a shortage weren't welcome?

This is yet another example of rampant imagination taking over the mind with resultant hallucinations. In this case, the subject (derf) has imagined that people who expressed a desire to leave the EU want to eject all foreign nationals from the UK. So severe are these delusions that he is passionately making a case to people who already agree with him.

Similar contagious hallucinatory behaviour is evident regarding the economy.

The goodness is coming. Ready yourselves to drink it all up.

 

[Kudoscycles]

It is sometimes difficult to know the difference between individual ministers views and also the many soundbites, and what is government policy, and what has been agreed for sure. But you have to read between the lines and use some common sense when you hear things especially most of us hear it through the press.
Especially at the moment that the Government of tomorrow is a work in progress only and as well as being subject of a new leader will invariable involve a reshuffled cabinet. The only firm thing (if we can say that ) Is Leave means leave. The government has got the message, even if some of you have not

Brendan,
Quote' The government has got the message,even if some of us have not'
Unfortunately the government have not got the Leave message,well at least 450 of them have not got the message. Even the Tory party has not got the message ,we can see that by May getting 199 votes and Leadsome only 84, the latter is after all the Leave candidate.
IT IS JUST NOT NUMERICALLY POSSIBLE THAT THIS GOVERNMENT CAN COUNT ENOUGH VOTES TO TRIGGER ARTICLE 50,BREXIT CANNOT HAPPEN UNLESS WE HAVE A CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT.
KudosDave

 

[Kudoscycles]

I am firmly of the belief that the £ has been too strong for quite some time and is now at a more correct level.
I also feel that on balance as in the past the lower £ will benefit our economy overall more
Pleasing to also see the positive indications from other countries they are ready to deals with us. Seriously we should start such discussions immediately and if as stated (pessimistically) that it takes years then we will be ready for Brexit, but I would not discount a little cherry picking and implement immediately if the EU does not play ball.
Why should we wait 2 years, if they are not going to respond positively to what at the end of the day we are looking for a mutually beneficial trade deal. If they cant see that then to hell with them

Heh we could get tony Blair to do a deal for us with the US, you know his best buddies

Brendan,how do you decide that the £ has been too strong,currencies have a way of balancing themselves over time,1.40-1.50 is about right,Brexit has written off 10% of its value and I cannot see any benefit of it sitting at 1.30.
When it becomes obvious to the markets that May is actually a Remainer and the referendum is ignored,possibly by a General Election,the markets will push the £ back to its normal level.
In the meantime whilst we go through this pantomime the markets will go through a period of turbulence. Let's hope we all wake up quickly to the mistake we have made before the damage becomes terminal.
KudosDave

 

[oldgroaner]

There are two issues that have completely staggered me over past couple of weeks.
First is our governments complete and utter lack of planning for brexit.
The second which I find more appalling is the sheer utter self righteousness of many stayers, a couple of whom are plainly evident on here.
Derf tells us all he isn't an economist ( and that leavers haven't read anything) but then goes on to predict economic disaster in his next utterances.

Open up a graphic of ftse (250 and / or 100) expand time scale to a year and it becomes difficult to actually spot brexit. Open it to3 years and its simply nothing spectacular, normal fluctuations in what have been stagnant figures with high frequency small fluctations over past 10 years now.
Yes, the pound has dropped and that can be put down to the appalling fear campaign which has brainwashed Derf, KTM, and OG, yet ironically each claim its leavers who have been indoctrinated.
Even Osbourne is now saying we cab have a bright financial future post Brexit, some have been saying that all along, IDS, Lord Howe, Mervyn King and obviously Peter Hargreaves have all said uk can and will prosper out of EU, but OG and Derf know better.
For goodness sake by all means express an opinion but don't assume your side have not been indoctrinated or that for some reason your arguments are some how based on more valid , better researched criteria.Its very divisive and lowers the credibility of your position. I,m aiming this at derf..I think some of your comments to Tilson/ Brendan and on occasions all leavers are totally out of line.
We are all capable of reseraching , we just choose to believe different things.

On brexit , did annnybody else see Marks and Sparks report. Terrible last 3 months... blamed on brexit !!! Poor consumer confidence...ah ah ah...

And OG, yes you can belittle our small force sent to Poland / east Europe. What has eu done ? They,ll probably talk about it.If our security was reliant on eu we,d have been talking Russian 20 years ago. The EU has done feck all in any conflict...ever...and couldn't put a fight up against Russian football hooligans never mind Russian army.

Our force was sent as a gesture with no hope of being the slightest use was it it isn't belittling them to point out the utter stupidity of provocative actions of that nature.

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk

 

[Kudoscycles]

Telling porkies again, the last 3 years has been more like $1.4 although it was higher before then, (during the great recession)
This has got nothing to do with paycut which again only serves to exagerate
It effects Imports only most of which come from China and any business worth a light would be negotiating. Prices dont just go up automatically on ex rates, or is that what your bike suppliers tell you??
They also need to sell, take long term views and need to be price competitive in the markets they operate

Sorry Brendan,you are not living in the real world....It is only days since the vote,my business is the largest importer of Motorsport parts out of China,I have over 100 suppliers from China.
They are all very concerned as to whether Brexit will cause the UK to not be able to service the EU after Brexit.
They also are urgently trying to raise prices because the RMB against the £ has fallen by 10%. They are looking to supply Germany direct and eliminate the UK in the supply chain....fortunately the UK is historically the home of Motorsport and the Germans don't have enough volumes to satisfy the Chinese MOQ's
Prices do automatically increase by exchange rates....if you have a 50 dollar product pre Brexit at 1.47 $ v £,that product cost £34.00 plus say 6% duty £36.05. The same product post Brexit at 1.29 $ v £ cost £38.75 plus 6% duty £41.05. £5.00 more.
Ironically I can easily afford these price rises but it will be poor people that will suffer most when these price rises filter through to the shops,this will affect everything bought in £ or dollars,from bicycles to bananas.
If you look on a historical $ v £ chart you will see that the £ has been hovering around 1.55 for some years,it's only since the referendum that we see1.40 and now 1.30 .
Most of my Chinese suppliers just cannot understand why we were so stupid to try to break away from Europe.
KudosDave