Brexit, for once some facts.

[Steb]

how about Big Money decides that brexit is exactly what suits them best, unrestricted capitalism, low tax, low import duty, generous non-domiciled regime, easy money laundering?
The tories will pay the EU, have a 3 years transitional period and win the next election by default.

Big money may be corrupt, but it's not quite depraved (in the way of, say, a brexit voter). Take a cleptocracy like south africa, it is owned by big money (Zupta brothers), but big money, in an I situational sense, is fleeing and the rand collapsing. Big money likes a degree of civilised infrastructure as much as most non brexiters.

 

[Zlatan]

Yes I have been consistent.. there is no upside for Ireland, North or South from this Brexit thing, just bad and worse options. .. Bad is staying in the EU, worse is leaving it along with the UK.

The only good option would be for the UK to have an official change of heart.

How do we decide that has or hasn't happened with no second referendum and no serious parties adopting remain policies ???

 

[Danidl]

How do we decide that has or hasn't happened with no second referendum and no serious parties adopting remain policies ???

.. you can't... That is why I suggest that my option 1 a few posts ago is most likely, least desirable but most likely.

 

[Woosh]

Big money likes a degree of civilised infrastructure as much as most non brexiters.

are you saying that our infrastructure, law and order, will simply collapse after brexit?

 

[Danidl]

there is no reason for a trade war.
As soon as we agree on the bill, a deal is going to happen, and will develop over time like with Switzerland. Any delay, we'll collect more on duty than the EU.
Don't forget, at present, we remit something like 80% of the duty to the EU.

What are you smoking? If the UK leaves without agreement with the EU.. a plausible scenario, then there would be a trade war. There would be a hard EU border along the Newry road , policed by irish troops, augmented by the EU boarder police., And paid for by an additional supplement from Brussels to Dublin.. That's what no agreement means. The Irish government will have limited say.
Meanwhile the UK will have similar numbers of police, customs etc on their side , paid by the UK government. They , the UK government,will then be charged with designing and implementing a customs clearing regime... It's all horrible to contemplate.

 

[Woosh]

What are you smoking? If the UK leaves without agreement with the EU.. a plausible scenario, then there would be a trade war. There would be a hard EU border along the Newry road , policed by irish troops, augmented by the EU boarder police., And paid for by an additional supplement from Brussels to Dublin.. That's what no agreement means. The Irish government will have limited say.
Meanwhile the UK will have similar numbers of police, customs etc on their side , paid by the UK government. They , the UK government,will then be charged with designing and implementing a customs clearing regime... It's all horrible to contemplate.

I didn't say that we will simply walk out.
I am saying that the tories will do whatever it takes to hold on to power.
There is no brownie points to get out of the EU without a deal, the current government will collapse if that happens because parliament won't tolerate a 'no deal' outcome.
If it's soft brexit, they'll go for it and tinker with it later.
however, a 3 years transitional period will be considered a good enough deal, capable of keeping the tories in power until they can negotiate a deal in time for the next GE.

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

I didn't say that we will simply walk out.
I am saying that the tories will do whatever it takes to hold on to power.
There is no brownie points to get out of the EU without a deal, the current government will collapse if that happens because parliament won't tolerate a 'no deal' outcome.
If it's soft brexit, they'll go for it and tinker with it later.
however, a 3 years transitional period will be considered a good enough deal, capable of keeping the tories in power until they can negotiate a deal in time for the next GE.

Soft Brexit... and transition deal are two terms we keep hearing.

care to define soft brexit?

or explain what we'd be transitioning too? and why the EU would offer a transition deal? Its like me wanting a divorce and then asking if I can still stay over 3 days a week??

 

[Steb]

are you saying that our infrastructure, law and order, will simply collapse after brexit?

we have made a decision (brexit) that is essentially about closet racism and grandiose delusions. in the long run it is financially and socially catastrophic (it cuts us off rom a life blood of new skill, talent and trade relations). America can get rid of their trump (and insane, racist trump moment of failed judgement). we cant get rid of brexit. we will ive with the consequences. It's a bit like having the trump family ordained to reign over usa for the next fifty years. Yup, it will collapse, slowly but inexorably.

 

[Kudoscycles]

What are you smoking? If the UK leaves without agreement with the EU.. a plausible scenario, then there would be a trade war. There would be a hard EU border along the Newry road , policed by irish troops, augmented by the EU boarder police., And paid for by an additional supplement from Brussels to Dublin.. That's what no agreement means. The Irish government will have limited say.
Meanwhile the UK will have similar numbers of police, customs etc on their side , paid by the UK government. They , the UK government,will then be charged with designing and implementing a customs clearing regime... It's all horrible to contemplate.

There would also be a trade war at Dover....if we no longer have to pay anti dumping duties then bicycles (non electric) will be 60% cheaper in the UK than France....can you imagine that French/German/Italian bike assemblers will happily pay 60% more for their chinese bikes than we do.
The customs at the EU channel ports will be strengthened by the EU and Kent will become a lorry park for backed up lorries...it will be awful.
The same applies to leather handbags,ally wheels,special steels. I dont know about food but I bet there will be smuggling of food products,whichever way is the cheapest tariff.
KudosDave

 

[Woosh]

care to define soft brexit?

soft brexit: retain EFTA membership.
Pay reduced fee but participate in the single market.

explain what we'd be transitioning too?

transitional period = retain EFTA membership only for the duration of the transitional period, exiting to hard brexit but likely after concluding a free trade deal with the EU.

The tories will dress this as a victory. If a deal is not possible before 2022 then they will simply call the election before 2022, claiming that they need a majority in the HoC to negotiate a better deal.

 

[Danidl]

I didn't say that we will simply walk out.
I am saying that the tories will do whatever it takes to hold on to power.
There is no brownie points to get out of the EU without a deal, the current government will collapse if that happens because parliament won't tolerate a 'no deal' outcome.
If it's soft brexit, they'll go for it and tinker with it later.
however, a 3 years transitional period will be considered a good enough deal, capable of keeping the tories in power until they can negotiate a deal in time for the next GE.

soft brexit: retain EFTA membership.
Pay reduced fee but participate in the single market.

The language would need to be moderated and soon
.. and when the inevitable disputes arise, who arbitrates? The ECJ? The courts of UK or a third body.

 

[Woosh]

we have made a decision (brexit) that is essentially about closet racism and grandiose delusions.

I disagree. These undesirable elements have always been in our society, staying in the EU won't make them disappear.
brexit is more about taking back control, not about 'grandiose delusions'.

 

[Danidl]

Soft Brexit... and transition deal are two terms we keep hearing.

care to define soft brexit?

or explain what we'd be transitioning too? and why the EU would offer a transition deal? Its like me wanting a divorce and then asking if I can still stay over 3 days a week??

I could see scenario in which a EU parliment might accept a transitional period. There will be a hope that sanity might breakout and UK re-evaluate. The EU values compromise.

 

[Steb]

soft brexit: retain EFTA membership.
Pay reduced fee but participate in the single market.

what ARE you smoking? the bigoted morons who voted brexit would never accept a reduced fee/participate in single market deal. even if they did the EU wouldn't. what you describe is essentially us begging the EU for scraps. that may be a negotiating strategy, but definitely not a good one.

transitional period = retain EFTA membership only for the duration of the transitional period, exiting to hard brexit but likely after concluding a free trade deal with the EU.

The tories will dress this as a victory. If a deal is not possible before 2022 then they will simply call the election before 2022, claiming that they need a majority in the HoC to negotiate a better deal.

 

[Woosh]

.. and when the inevitable disputes arise, who arbitrates? The ECJ? The courts of UK or a third body

EFTA has its own court of justice.

 

[Steb]

what ARE you smoking? the bigoted morons who voted brexit would never accept a reduced fee/participate in single market deal. even if they did the EU wouldn't. what you describe is essentially us begging the EU for scraps. that may be a negotiating strategy, but definitely not a good one.

 

[Kudoscycles]

Soft Brexit... and transition deal are two terms we keep hearing.

care to define soft brexit?

or explain what we'd be transitioning too? and why the EU would offer a transition deal? Its like me wanting a divorce and then asking if I can still stay over 3 days a week??

The current UK negotiating strategy is based upon UK arrogance on the world stage,it seems the Rees-Moggs of this world are stuck in the 1930's when we still had an empire and our navy ruled the world. They are of the belief that the EU needs us more than we need them.
We have said we want to leave the club but we still want to play on the greens,we dont want to pay any subscription and we dont want to pay any upkeep but we may pop into the clubhouse when we feel like it.
Oh and we also want to play on any other club without paying to use them.
I think that defines 'soft Brexit'.
KudosDave

 

[KTM Bike Industries UK]

EFTA has its own court of justice.

EFTA is also nothing to do with the EU... we'd have to apply for this other trade association.

 

[Kudoscycles]

I disagree. These undesirable elements have always been in our society, staying in the EU won't make them disappear.
brexit is more about taking back control, not about 'grandiose delusions'.

Taking back control of what????
KudosDave

 

[oldgroaner]

I disagree. These undesirable elements have always been in our society, staying in the EU won't make them disappear.
brexit is more about taking back control, not about 'grandiose delusions'.

Taking back control requires things we simply don't have

1. A competent and conscientious Government and registration system
2. Organised and Efficient Border control forces of adequate size on land sea and air
3. Funds to do this.
4. A Public that understands and agrees with who comes,and why
5. Suitable "Johnny Foreigners" who actually want to come.

So much for the notion that this isn't about "Grand Delusions!"

So far we have the wishes of the people and the promises of the Politicians, which are clearly miles different.